Mythbusting Tyreek Hill's Critics

Photo: Katie Stratman, USA Today Sports

This article is about a 13-minute read.

Don't Believe (Most) of the Criticism, Hill is A Truly Elite Fantasy Option

Tyreek Hill is one of the league’s best receivers and is a consensus top-5 receiver this year. He’ll be off the board by the end of the second round in nearly every league. The question you’ve got to answer is whether Hill should be an aggressive target, versus other players likely available in the same range. There are three common complaints as it relates to drafting Hill as a No. 1 receiver:

1. He lacks consistency and is a boom-or-bust player
2. The Chiefs spread the ball around too much
3. He’s an injury risk

Two of those three concerns are baseless, and the other – while legitimate – isn’t enough to discount Hill versus other players coming off the board in the late first or early second rounds. Tyreek Hill is a complete, dynamic, SAFE fantasy option, and can be a cornerstone of a championship contender.

Something We All Agree About…He’s One of the League’s Best

Tyreek Hill is one of the league’s best receivers, by any measure. A colleague recently made the comparison to Steve Smith, and it’s well regarded. Hill, like Smith, is relatively small (5-foot-10, 185 pounds) but has blazing speed, great hands, and has evolved into a precise route runner. Hill had an above-average success rate on every route on the tree last year, according to Yahoo!’s Matt Harmon. He’s also equally adept at beating man and zone coverage; he can do it all.

Yards per Target (Active Receivers)

Yards per Game (Active Receivers)

Catch Rate (Active Receivers)

Fantasy Points per Target (Active Receivers)

Misplaced Concern #1: He’s Not Durable

In four seasons, Hill has played in 59 of 64 regular-season games. His 92.2% active rate compares favorably against other early-round fantasy receivers and is above their collective average.

Misplaced Concern #2: He’s Not Consistent

The most common reason fantasy analysts give for downgrading Hill is a perceived lack of consistency. Even many of his supporters speak about his weekly volatility, as though it’s problematic. Yet, the data tells a different story. Let’s compare Hill’s weekly fantasy output against a basket of other top fantasy receivers, as measured by current ADP.

Percentage of Weeks with a Top 36 Finish (2016-2019)

This is a floor measurement for a starting fantasy receiver in a 12-team league. You can stomach a top-36 finish on off weeks; it’s only excruciating when your starters deliver a fantasy score that’s outside of the baseline. Hill has been a top-36 receiver 35 times in 59 games (59.3%). While that’s a far cry from the likes of Michael Thomas (76.2%), Julio Jones (73.8%), and Davante Adams (73.7%), it’s still above average among the basket of top receivers. On average, this group of “must-have” fantasy receivers finishes inside the Top 36 57.3% of the time. The worst thing you can say about Hill is he’s slightly better than average in terms of delivering a baseline score.

Percentage of Weeks with a Top 24 Finish (2016-2019)

This is your good enough measurement when a projected star gives you at least a WR2 score for the week. Hill has delivered top-24 value 45.8% of the time. No one can touch Davante Adams (68.4%) in this metric, but Hill ranks above average among this basket of top receivers.

Percentage of Weeks with a Top 12 Finish (2016-2019)

This is why you draft receivers in the first two rounds; to get a top-12 weekly finish. These are the weeks when you smile at your box score, knowing your draft pick performed up to expectations. Not surprisingly, this is also where Tyreek Hill starts to shine. He’s been a top-12 receiver 37.3% of the time, which is dramatically higher than the basket’s average (26.7%).

Percentage of Weeks with a Top 5 Finish (2016-2019)

Boom! Outside of A.J. Brown’s monstrous rookie season (four top-five finishes in 16 games), Hill sits atop the rankings. No other receiver has delivered more top-five finishes; he’s done it 20.3% of the time. This is what wins fantasy championships.

In summary, Tyreek Hill is no more likely to fall short of baseline expectations than other top receivers, yet he’s among the most likely to give you a game-winning weekly performance. There’s a perception that you have to take the bad with the good, but the reality is you have to accept the average with amazing.

Legitimate Concern: He has a target ceiling

This is the one commonly held concern that holds up to scrutiny.

Targets per Game (Active Receivers)

Hill ranks just 25th in targets per game among active receivers. Fortunately, Hill is hyper-efficient on a per-target basis, but he needs a higher target rate, and share of Patrick Mahomes II throws to compete with Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and Davante Adams for the top spot.

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

Final Thoughts

Tyreek Hill is one of the best receivers in the NFL, full stop. He's a precise route runner, he has great hands, he dominates against man and zone coverage with equal aplomb, and he has game-breaking speed. He also plays for the reigning Super Bowl champions on the league's best offense, with the league's best quarterback. The depth chart has alternatives, but none figure to eat into Hill's existing role. While many of you will happily draft Hill at the end of the first round or in the early second round, plenty more will opt for someone else because of a series of worries; most of which are unfounded. He's doesn't lack durability -- he's been more durable than most star receivers. He doesn't lack consistency -- he's as likely to deliver a baseline weekly performance as most fantasy starters but gives you the week-winning upside more often than anyone else. The only real concern about Hill is his lack of target share versus other potential top-5 fantasy receivers. That's why it's logical to consider the likes of Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and Davante Adams over Hill. But don't mistakenly pass on Hill for anyone else at the position, particularly if you're basing your reluctance on faulty logic.

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