Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Number 5: Thursday Night Special
Boston Scott Over 11.5 fantasy points
Darius Slayton Over 12.5 fantasy points
- This is truly a Thursday night special with Monkey Knife Fight offering special odds on a number of Thursday night props that give us a chance to 3.5X our buy-in instead of the typical 3X or 2.5X.
- This Boston Scott prop is one of my favorite of the week. Given his expected role in the Eagles offense, he should top this number easily.
- Monkey Knife Fight uses PPR scoring, which is a major reason for confidence in this prop. The Eagles are going to be without four of their top five pass-catchers and Wentz is going to have to throw it to someone.
- The Eagles faced a similar injury situation late in 2019 for both of their matchups against the Giants. In those two games, Scott caught 10 passes for 153 yards. He could hit 11.5 PPR points on receiving production alone. Footballguys also projects him for a dozen carries.
The Boston Scott Game. 🦅@BostonScott2 | @Eagles
— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2020
📺: #NYGvsPHI -- TONIGHT 8pm ET on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEOâ£
📱: https://t.co/W5bCPYgMfo pic.twitter.com/LsJ1oRbPdl
- 12.5 is a nice number on Slayton, who comes into the game averaging 13.8 fantasy points on the season.
- Slayton has 100% of the Giants receiving touchdowns on the season. He is clearly Daniel Jones’ favorite target and has been able to put up solid WR2 numbers despite the overall offensive struggles. If the Giants offense gets rolling a bit, Slayton should be a prime beneficiary.
- There is some concern about Slayton’s health as he is battling a foot injury. However, he practiced in full on Wednesday and should be able to play through it for what is actually a big game for the Giants, given how the NFC East standings are shaping up.
Number 4: Allen gets right
Josh Allen More than 261.5 passing yards
Sam Darnold less than 253.5 passing yards
- We will go back to the well with another bet against the Jets. This feels like a spot where Allen should get back on track. He struggled mightily against the Chiefs and has cooled off after a fast start. The first priority of the Bills should be to get Allen going with a big game against the Jets. For his part, Allen seems to relish the opportunity to get the offense rolling again.
Shooters shoot: Josh Allen and the Bills confidence level now https://t.co/VLNDUhYPIN
— 13WHAM (@13WHAM) October 22, 2020
- In Week 1, Allen threw for 312 yards against this same Jets defense.
- Allen has thrown for more than 261.5 yards in 5-of-6 games this season.
- The Jets are a “pass funnel” defense, ranking 31st in DVOA against the pass and 14th against the run.
- Sam Darnold has thrown for more than 253.5 yards in just 5-of-18 starts under Adam Gase (28%). Darnold has not had a game with more than 230 passing yards since Week 14 of last season.
Number 3: Falcons-Lions shootout
More than 19.5 fantasy points for both Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan
- This is a play with high correlation. If this game is high-scoring, we almost certainly see both quarterbacks top 19.5 fantasy points.
- This game should be high scoring. We have an over/under of 55 points and implied team totals for both teams of over 26 points.
- The Falcons are giving up 29.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, most in the NFL.
- Atlanta ranks 30th against the pass (DVOA).
- In the three games this season that Julio Jones has played at least 25% of the snaps, Matt Ryan is averaging 365 passing yards and 3.3 touchdowns.
Number 2: Riding with CEH at least one more week
Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 58.5 rushing yards
Noah Fant under 4.5 receptions
- Noah Fant is expected to make his return from an ankle injury he suffered in Week 4. While he may be healthy enough to get on the field, we should not expect him to be 100%. Full recovery from an ankle injury often takes six weeks or longer even when players are able to return sooner.
- Even fully healthy, 4.5 receptions would be a close call for Fant. He averages just under 3.0 catches per game in his career.
- Expect a run-heavy approach from Denver. Kansas City has the 4th-best pass defense and the 27th-best run defense (DVOA).
- Some will expect LeVeon Bell to instantly come in and take a big chunk of the running back carries away from Edwards-Helaire. The more likely scenario is that Bell eats into Darrel Williams' third-down usage.
- Edwards-Helaire is averaging 84 rushing yards per game this season.
#Broncos HC Vic Fangio describes the #Chiefs as being improved on offense from their SB championship team because of ability to run with Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) October 21, 2020
- The only two games Edwards-Helaire has rushed for less than 58.5 yards this season, it was due to game script. The Chiefs fell behind by more than a touchdown early in both of those games. As 9.5-point favorites against the Broncos, odds are that the Chiefs will be playing with a lead.
Number 1: Positive Game Script for Chargers
Justin Jackson more than 50.5 rushing yards
Keelan Cole more than 50.5 receiving yards
- This is a correlation play based on the expectation the Chargers control this game and get out to an early lead. In that game script, Jackson would likely see 15+ carries and the Jaguars would be forced to go pass-heavy. The Chargers are 7.5-point home favorites.
- Justin Jackson has stepped into the lead role for the Chargers since Austin Ekeler was injured.
Justin Jackson is about to go looney tunes all over the Jags this week
— Yahoo Sports Canada (@YahooCASports) October 22, 2020
Full episode: https://t.co/yPaJtR4FSG@StevenPsihogios | @chengwesley pic.twitter.com/W5Qv19eBJj
- The Chargers are averaging 122.4 rushing yards per game and have been especially run heavy when playing with a lead.
- Jacksonville’s defense ranks bottom five in the NFL, allowing 143.8 rushing yards per game.
- Over the last three weeks, Jacksonville gave up 116 rushing yards to DAndre Swift, 96 rushing yards to David Johnson, and 151 rushing yards to Joe Mixon.
- Keenan Cole has quietly emerged as a go-to target in the Jacksonville offense. He has seen at least five targets in every single game and leads the Jaguars in targets.
- Cole had a breakout performance last week with 143 receiving yards against the Lions.
- Cole is the healthiest of the Jaguars receivers, with Laviska Shenault (hamstring) and D.J. Chark (ankle) both playing through nagging injuries.
- Chark should see a lot of top cornerback Casey Hayward in coverage. Meanwhile, Cole should see a lot of Desmond King, who has allowed a 78% completion rate this season.
Looking back at last week
Last Week +3 Units
Overall Season (+3.5 units)
We hit on two of five props last week. We were on the right side of fantasy unders for both D.J. Chark and Marvin Jones. We also hit on our combination of over for Myles Gaskin and under for Breshad Perriman in the Dolphins-Jets game.
Our Burrow over Rivers prop was looking good until Rivers caught fire in the second half. We had the over on Travis Fulgham and Mark Andrews, with only Fulgham coming through. We were on the right track with our “fading primetime Dalton” prop but Andy Dalton actually ended up with more passing yards than Kyler Murray due to garbage time.