David Montgomery was the butt of jokes last year, thanks to him undergoing a rookie learning curve that led to a backlash from analysts and fans who used the pre-draft declaration of "Running Back Frankenstein," from ESPN's draftniks as a point of derision towards the talent Iowa State star. Last year, Montgomery's play sparked a lot of criticism and fear about his NFL future as a legitimate featured starter:
- Fears that he was too slow for the league.
- Concerns that he bounced too many plays outside.
- Criticisms regarding tentative decision-making.
- Examples of him leaning too much on one style of footwork.
The first point alarmed most analysts who were critical of him. Of course, it was the last three points—all valid issues—that were correctable over the course of time and could alleviate any concerns about Montgomery's long-term prospects as an NFL starter.
This is exactly what has happened between 2019 and 2020.
Montgomery finished his rookie year as the No.24 PPR runner in fantasy leagues, earning 242 carries for 889 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns as well as 25 receptions for 185 yards and a receiving score. This year, the sixth-ranked Montgomery is more productive and more efficient.
What A Difference A Year Makes: David Montgomery
| Year/Gms | Att. | RuYds | YPC | RuTDs | Rec. | RecYds | RecTDs |
| 2019/16 | 242 | 889 | 3.7 | 6 | 25 | 185 | 1 |
| 2020/14 | 202 | 906 | 4.5 | 6 | 43 | 359 | 2 |
A closer look reveals that, as a fantasy producer, Montgomery sneaked-up on us during the second half of this year. The No.15 PPR running back after the first eight weeks of the season, Montgomery's 3.8 YPC and 1 rushing touchdown wasn't inspiring, but since Week 9, he has been the No.5 PPR back in fantasy and generating 5.5 yards per carry and 5 rushing scores. This includes him missing the Minnesota game in Week 10 with an injury.
Was his emergence schedule-aided? After all, Montgomery's schedule during the past seven weeks has included some of the most generous defenses to running backs in the NFL (The rankings below are for Fantasy Points Allowed to Running Backs and the points per game given up):
- Tennessee: 8th (25.5 Fpts/G)
- Green Bay: 5th (27.7 Fpts/G)
- Detroit: 1st (31.6 Fpts/G)
- Houston: 2nd (31.2 Fpts/G)
If you only examined the data, Montgomery's emergence would appear suspect. However, Montgomery's less-inspiring production during the first half of the season included several forgiving units:
- Detroit
- NY Giants: 9th (24.8 Fpts/G)
- Carolina: 6th (25.8 Fpts/G)
Last weekend, Montgomery also compiled a season-best, 162 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns against the Vikings, who are a pretty good run unit at 19th in terms of generosity to runners. His 89 yards rushing against the Saints, the stingiest defense against running backs in the league other than the Steelers, is the second-best rushing total that a running back authored against the Saints all year.
We should also consider the offensive line. Matt Bitonti has praised Alex Bars and Sam Mustipher, Chicago's young right guard and center who played together at Notre Dame. Still, he only has the Bears' line as the league's 20th-best unit. While a bargain crew performing well for its inexperience and loss of talent, it's not a top group.
Compared to most of the backs in his performance tier, Montgomery is also doing more with less when it comes to his support. The only other line not ranked in Bitonti's top 12 units that has a running back scoring over 200 fantasy points in PPR thus far is James Robinson's crew in Jacksonville (26th).
Although skeptics and bottom-line thinkers will cite the schedule and Tarik Cohen's season-ending jury through the 2021 preseason as reasons to be wary of Montgomery repeating his top-10 fantasy production, it should be becoming clear to you that there's more to Montgomery's emergence than his opportunity and ease of schedule.
If you're reading this feature weekly, then you know that I care about analyzing a player and determining how much of his performance is about talent, scheme fit, opportunity, and his supporting cast. Sometimes a player is outplaying his situation whereas other players have great talent that's overshadowed by a bad supporting cast and a scheme that doesn't maximize what he does best. And of course, there are players who have the supporting cast and scheme to play within a tight frame of on-field scenarios that favor their strengths far more than their peers.
Before we even look at the film, it's already clear that Montgomery's emergence has come with a makeshift offensive line and he's more efficient on a per-touch-basis. When you examine this analysis below, note that much of what I'm showing about Montgomery is his improvement with concepts and techniques that make him better against unblocked defenders, early defensive penetration, and setting up his linemen. Although most of the video is based on tape from two games, the visual examples are representative of what I've seen over the course of several weeks.
In contrast to this year, here's what Montgomery was doing that was hurting him in 2019. Compare the first play in the video above with the play below from J. Moyer's analysis of him at my site last year.
Below is some analysis I did on Montgomery when he was at Iowa State. It shows how he was in desperate need of learning how to open his hips with one step so he could change direction with far greater efficiency in tight quarters. You'll see multiple plays from the 2020 analysis that Montgomery has figured out how to incorporate this technique into his game.
Although bottom-line thinkers will consider anything less than a top-10 season from Montgomery in 2021 as a disappointment and will hastily conclude that his 2020 campaign was due to the ease of his schedule, their ignorance of the most important details will prevent them from understanding that Montgomery has improved enough to deliver consistent starter production at his position if given the snaps and workload to do it.
The key factors for Montgomery sustaining his top-10 fantasy production in 2021 will be Cohen's return and his usage and whether there's significant leadership, coaching, quarterback, and offensive line turnover at year's end. The extreme worst-case scenario with these factors is that we could see a different offense in Chicago with a new quarterback and coaching staff that doesn't click, and the disaster hurts Montgomery's upside.
The extreme best-case that the Bears solidify and build on its ground attack, the coaching staff decides to make Montgomery the centerpiece of the offense, and the quarterback performs well enough in a managed role (Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Ryan Tannehill) that Montgomery delivers another strong fantasy RB1 year.
When you break down Montgomery's game in an effort to see what he does independently from his teammates or within his own control regardless of what his teammates are doing, it's clear that he's a talented back heading in the right direction. My friend Bryan Perez, a fellow draftnik and former NBC beat writer covering the Bears who once owned Draftbreakdown.com once compared Montgomery's style and strengths to the strengths of Jamal Anderson.
I see a lot of that in Montgomery's game. If the Bears can leverage what Montgomery does best, 2021 could be an excellent year. Even if it isn't, know that he is becoming a good NFL running back worth acquiring at a bargain if your results-oriented peers can't see past the numbers being fed to them.
