This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup:
WR Corey Davis (TEN vs MIN)
Davis will look to continue his redemption tour against a surprisingly bad Vikings defense this week. In 2 games, they have allowed 5 passing touchdowns to receivers and have struggled to keep anyone healthy. With A.J. Brown still limited; Davis will again be one of the main beneficiaries of additional targets. He had 10 catches on 13 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown so far this season and should add to those numbers this week. The only detriment could be if the Titans get up early and go with Derrick Henry to run out the clock.
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs SEA):
The potential Lamb has in the Dallas offense shone through against Atlanta. He came away with 6 catches for 106 yards on 9 targets last week and will take on a Seattle secondary that is nowhere close to their former Legion of Boom. Seattle has allowed 50 catches for 731 yards to opposing receivers through 2 games this year and no other team is close. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are still going to get theirs this week as well but look for Lamb to build off his strong week 2 performance against the Seahawks.
WR Kenny Golladay (DET vs ARI):
The Detroit offense has managed to build leads even without Golladay in their first 2 games this season, imagine what they are going to do now that they have their top passing option back. Golladay is expected to suit up this week after dealing with a hamstring issue and he will be taking on an Arizona defense that was just carved up by Terry McLaurin and Dwayne Haskins to the tune of 7 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown. As long as he is healthy, this is a great spot for Golladay to be coming back to.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC vs CAR):
After an unfortunate medical accident with Tyrod Taylor, the Justin Herbert era has begun for the Chargers. The offense looked better all-around with Herbert on the field as they pushed the defending Super Bowl Champions to the brink last week. Allen was instrumental to Herbert’s success in pulled in 7 of 10 targets for 96 yards. They will have had a full week of working together and will be taking on a Carolina defense that is very soft. The running game will be the biggest story for the Chargers this week, but Allen will still play a big role.
WR Robert Woods (LAR vs BUF):
Everyone loves a revenge game and that’s is what Woods is facing this week against Buffalo. Normally I would avoid the Bills defense, but they looked human against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins last week. Both DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki had big games and the Dolphins moved the ball almost freely in the second half. Woods seems to have surpassed Cooper Kupp as the lead target in this offense and he could be in line for a big game against his former team.
WR Adam Thielen (MIN vs TEN):
There appears to be a lot going wrong in Minnesota right now and the offense was a complete dumpster fire last week against the Colts. That should not convince you to move away from Thielen this week against the Titans. If the trend continues, the Vikings will be in a negative game script against Tennessee and Kirk Cousins will have to throw the ball. Justin Jefferson has not taken off yet and the only real weapon down the field right now is Thielen. If Dalvin Cook doesn’t get going early, look for Thielen to get another 10 targets this week and rack up the yards in garbage time.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs BUF):
There is a lot of value in a tight end that gets targets in the red zone on a team that has an uncertain running back situation. Higbee pulled in 3 touchdowns last week and while I would not expect that again this week against a tough Buffalo defense, he is still going to get his share of looks in the red zone. I have Higbee with the highest percent chance of bringing in a touchdown this week at the tight end position and he should be a must start in all formats.
Unfavorable Matchup:
WR Will Fuller (HOU vs PIT):
No one has had a tougher schedule to open the season than Houston and it has shown. Fuller put up a goose egg last week and will be taking on another tough defense in Pittsburgh this week. He was not even targeted in a loss to the Ravens last week and expect more pressure on Deshaun Watson from a relentless Steelers front line. In true Fuller fashion this could be the week he blows up since everyone benches him, but it is just too risky against the Steelers defense.
WR Marquise Brown (BAL vs KC):
The Baltimore offense is very difficult to predict. Lamar Jackson is always going to take the lead but from there it is a guessing game every week. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers going back to 2019 and have continued that strong showing this season. Brown always has the potential to break a long one but that will be tough this week against the Chiefs defense. Look for Baltimore to pound the ball up the middle and do their best to control the clock and keep the Chiefs offense off the field.
WR Emmanuel Sanders (NO vs GB):
He had his chance to step up last week with Michael Thomas out and ended up falling flat with a single catch for 18 yards on 3 targets. To be fair, the entire Saints offense looked bad last week against a motivated Raiders team, but Sanders should have done better. TreQuan Smith stepped up and should be the receiver to watch this week. Expect a better game from Sanders, but not enough to start him this week.
WR Sammy Watkins (KC vs BAL):
Despite the injury last week, Watkins is expected to play. Unfortunately, he will be taking on a Baltimore secondary that ranks towards the top of the league against receivers. The Chiefs offense did not look crisp last week, and they will have a tougher matchup against the Ravens. Watkins had a big week 1 but that is the same thing he did last season and it ended up being his best game of the season. Until he can be more consistent and stay healthy, Watkins should be on the bench.
WR Jerry Jeudy (DEN vs TB):
He has the chance to step up and be the #1 receiver on this team after Courtland Sutton went down with an injury. Unfortunately, he also lost his starting quarterback and will have Jeff Driskel throwing him the ball this week. There are better days to come for Jeudy and this Denver team, but they are going to tak their lumps right now and Jeudy should be avoided in your lineups.
WR Christian Kirk (ARI vs DET):
This pick does not have anything to do with Kirk’s ability or even the matchup this week against Detroit. Kyler Murray only seems to see DeAndre Hopkins on the field and that has cut into the production for everyone else. Even Kenyan Drake has taken a back seat in this offense as it has been the Murray and Hopkins show. Kirk will be placed firmly on my bench until the ball is spread around a little more in Arizona.
TE Evan Engram (NYG vs CHI):
With Saquon Barkley out and Sterling Sheperd out it would be easy to think Engram would see his role expand in this offense. Unfortunately, the offense is just bad right now and so is Daniel Jones. All of Engram’s targets came in the second half with the Giants down last week and they are taking on a Chicago defense that is tough on tight ends. It will be hard to trust Engram at all until this offense gets things figured out after all the injuries.
