In June’s dynasty trade value chart article, we take a step back to look at some of the most important big picture trends at each position and how we can take advantage of them to better our dynasty teams. We will also add the 2020 rookie players to our positional value charts. Lastly, we will take a look ahead at how to value 2021 rookie picks and give a short preview of what that class will look like next spring.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Quarterback
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Superflex
|
Single-QB
|
1
|
Patrick Mahomes
|
65
|
30
|
2
|
Lamar Jackson
|
58
|
28
|
3
|
Kyler Murray
|
45
|
18
|
4
|
Deshaun Watson
|
38
|
15
|
5
|
Dak Prescott
|
36
|
15
|
6
|
Russell Wilson
|
30
|
11
|
7
|
Josh Allen
|
30
|
10
|
8
|
Joe Burrow
|
30
|
9
|
9
|
Tua Tagovailoa
|
26
|
8
|
10
|
Carson Wentz
|
26
|
8
|
11
|
Daniel Jones
|
25
|
7
|
12
|
Baker Mayfield
|
23
|
7
|
13
|
Matt Ryan
|
19
|
6
|
14
|
Matthew Stafford
|
19
|
6
|
15
|
Drew Lock
|
18
|
6
|
16
|
Justin Herbert
|
17
|
5
|
17
|
Kirk Cousins
|
16
|
4
|
18
|
Jared Goff
|
16
|
4
|
19
|
Sam Darnold
|
16
|
4
|
20
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
16
|
4
|
21
|
Ryan Tannehill
|
15
|
4
|
22
|
Dwayne Haskins
|
14
|
4
|
23
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
14
|
4
|
24
|
Teddy Bridgewater
|
12
|
3
|
25
|
Gardner Minshew
|
11
|
3
|
26
|
Tom Brady
|
9
|
3
|
27
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
9
|
3
|
28
|
Jarrett Stidham
|
8
|
2
|
29
|
Cam Newton
|
8
|
2
|
30
|
Philip Rivers
|
6
|
1
|
31
|
Derek Carr
|
6
|
1
|
32
|
Nick Foles
|
6
|
1
|
33
|
Jameis Winston
|
6
|
1
|
34
|
Jordan Love
|
6
|
1
|
35
|
Drew Brees
|
5
|
2
|
36
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
5
|
1
|
37
|
Taysom Hill
|
5
|
1
|
38
|
Andy Dalton
|
4
|
1
|
39
|
Marcus Mariota
|
4
|
1
|
40
|
Jalen Hurts
|
4
|
1
|
Big Picture: Youth Movement
Part of the reason that the quarterback trade market in typical start one quarterback dynasty leagues has been so depressed in recent years was that most of the top fantasy options were older guys. As you can see above, the average age of the Top 12 fantasy quarterbacks had been hovering around 30. The choice often seemed to be grabbing an older passer who could give you a few strong years or rolling the dice on a young guy with less immediate benefit (or some combination of the two).
However, we saw a real changing of the guard last season with Patrick Mahomes winning the Super Bowl and Lamar Jackson winning MVP. In fantasy, the average age of the Top 12 dropped all the way down to 26-years old. That could skew even younger in 2020. In fact, in our 2020 fantasy projections, each of the top four quarterbacks is 25 or younger. Plus, Dak Prescott (27), Josh Allen (24), Daniel Jones (23), and Joe Burrow (23) aren’t too far behind.
What the big picture means to you
With this new generation of superstar quarterbacks, it is worth re-evaluating whether “late-round quarterback” is still the way to go in dynasty. We now have plenty of options to get top fantasy production both in the short-term and many years into the future. That is worth paying for, especially when the relative depth at other positions (especially wide receiver) has improved. In this context, many of these top young quarterbacks are undervalued right now in dynasty.
For example, Deshaun Watson is currently going off the board in the 6th round of 12-team dynasty startups. This is a guy who is only 24-years old and has been nothing but impressive in each of the last six seasons (going back to his Clemson days). The fact that he has proven so much at such a young age should make him a hotter commodity than he is in dynasty leagues.
Quick Hits
No rookie draft bargains in Superflex
We are not getting a big discount on Justin Herbert like we did with Daniel Jones and Josh Allen — two similar players who were going mid-2nd round in most Superflex rookie drafts. Herbert has been going in the mid-late first round, which is maybe a little high but about where he belongs based upon his athleticism and draft capital.
Is everyone lying?
Based upon the Twitter replies to Jay Glazer’s report that Taysom Hill is the future in New Orleans, the consensus from the fantasy community seems to be that everyone is lying. “No smokescreen, he’s the guy,” Glazer said. “Sean Payton loves him but it's not just him, the whole team loves him, not just Sean Payton. When he's in the game, watch the other players on the sideline, watch their reaction. They all get up and stand on the sidelines to watch him. I think Sean was always hoping to unleash him on the league without anyone seeing him before but now we’ve seen it with Lamar Jackson. He’s a bigger Lamar Jackson.”
It is easy to understand the skepticism but the advice here remains that it is worth the price to grab Hill now, be patient, and find out in 2021 if the hype ends up being real. Even in Superflex, you can still get him for a future third-round rookie pick or in the 15th round of a startup. At that price point, it is such a low-risk roll of the dice, that the downside in almost non-existent and it could payoff in a big way if he is the 2021 Saints starter. This is a guy who ran a 4.44 forty and has been touted as one of the Saints fastest players, regardless of position.
Running Back
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
1
|
Christian McCaffrey
|
65
|
2
|
Saquon Barkley
|
60
|
3
|
Ezekiel Elliott
|
44
|
4
|
Alvin Kamara
|
44
|
5
|
Dalvin Cook
|
44
|
6
|
Joe Mixon
|
39
|
7
|
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
|
39
|
8
|
Nick Chubb
|
37
|
9
|
Miles Sanders
|
36
|
10
|
Jonathan Taylor
|
35
|
11
|
Josh Jacobs
|
32
|
12
|
Austin Ekeler
|
30
|
13
|
D'Andre Swift
|
29
|
14
|
J.K. Dobbins
|
29
|
15
|
Derrick Henry
|
27
|
16
|
Cam Akers
|
27
|
17
|
Kenyan Drake
|
22
|
18
|
Leonard Fournette
|
18
|
19
|
Melvin Gordon
|
16
|
20
|
Aaron Jones
|
16
|
21
|
Todd Gurley
|
15
|
22
|
Devin Singletary
|
15
|
23
|
David Montgomery
|
14
|
24
|
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
|
14
|
25
|
Chris Carson
|
13
|
26
|
Le'Veon Bell
|
12
|
27
|
Antonio Gibson
|
11
|
28
|
David Johnson
|
11
|
29
|
James Conner
|
11
|
30
|
A.J. Dillon
|
11
|
31
|
Kareem Hunt
|
11
|
32
|
Derrius Guice
|
9
|
33
|
Sony Michel
|
8
|
34
|
Raheem Mostert
|
8
|
35
|
Kerryon Johnson
|
7
|
36
|
Ronald Jones
|
7
|
37
|
Alexander Mattison
|
6
|
38
|
Darrell Henderson
|
6
|
39
|
Tony Pollard
|
6
|
40
|
James White
|
6
|
41
|
Mark Ingram
|
6
|
42
|
Tevin Coleman
|
6
|
43
|
Phillip Lindsay
|
6
|
44
|
Matt Breida
|
5
|
45
|
Rashaad Penny
|
5
|
46
|
Jordan Howard
|
5
|
47
|
Latavius Murray
|
5
|
48
|
Nyheim Hines
|
5
|
49
|
Marlon Mack
|
5
|
50
|
Damien Williams
|
5
|
51
|
Darrynton Evans
|
4
|
52
|
Tarik Cohen
|
4
|
53
|
Duke Johnson
|
4
|
54
|
Chase Edmonds
|
4
|
55
|
Justice Hill
|
3
|
56
|
DeeJay Dallas
|
3
|
57
|
Lamical Perine
|
3
|
58
|
Devonta Freeman
|
2
|
59
|
Carlos Hyde
|
2
|
60
|
Damien Harris
|
2
|
Big Picture
It has been amazing to see how quickly things have flipped from wide receivers dominating the top of startup drafts to running backs dominating. Here is a line graph showing the dynasty ADP of the RB12 and WR12 over the past six summers:
We have gone from the 12th running back being drafted midway through the 5th round of a 12-team startup in 2016 to the 12th running back going off the board midway through the 2nd round (18th overall) currently.
Or to put it in a different context, in 2016 dynasty startups there were 36 wide receivers drafted before the 12th running back was selected. In current dynasty startups, there are only 6 WRs going before the 12th running back.
The big picture and dynasty strategy
The ADP does not feel wrong or unbalanced towards the running backs given the relative scarcity of top performers at the position and the increasing depth at the wide receiver position. However, it does seem like we are likely reaching a high water mark where things should swing back in the other directionsoon.
Those top young running backs are understandably the most valued commodities in dynasty right now. That being said, going against the crowd and taking advantage of the opportunity to load up on top young wide receivers while they are discounted may prove a strong strategy that has all of a sudden become a contrarian method of roster building. It might be worth exploring just how much WR value you can get if you put one of these top young backs on the trade block.
Quick Hits
Miles Sanders
Miles Sanders is going off the board 9th overall in early FFPC Drafts. If his redraft ADP remains in that range, his dynasty value should continue to climb as well. Sanders just turned 23-years old in May and may be better positioned than some other young backs for a long NFL career given that he spent two of his three college seasons backing up Saquon Barkley.
Contract talk, again
With Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake, Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, James Conner Todd Gurley, and others all set to play out the final year of their deals, there is a massive amount of uncertainty that is difficult to account for at the top of the running back ranks. There is the potential for a couple of these guys to holdout. Beyond that, it rarely turns out that a running back gains dynasty value after moving to a new team.
Predicting which of these backs will get extensions beyond this year and stay in relatively favorable situations is the biggest key to figuring out which of these backs to target and which you should be trying to sell high on.
Of this group, Mixon, Cook, and Henry look like the best bets to get extensions done and stick around in great situations. Kamara, Drake, and Carson seem better than 50/50 to do the same but come with more risk. The odds are longer for Fournette, Jones, Gurley, and Conner, which makes their value more fragile.
Valuing the top rookie backs
One of the tougher aspects of dynasty football is balancing the risk versus reward of rookie players. There are no easy answers. The transition from college to the pros is difficult and success is uncertain for even the best prospects. There is real risk in taking a rookie over an already proven veteran. We see highly-drafted backs turn out to be busts almost every year. However, especially at running back, we cannot overlook the fact that rookies generally have more upside than veterans who have been in the league more than a year or two.
What does “more upside” mean in this case? Let’s look at Jonathan Taylor versus Nick Chubb as an example. The primary reason Taylor arguably has more upside is that he is over three years younger than Chubb. At a position where players are rarely elite fantasy performers for a long time, three extra prime years is extremely valuable. If you think Taylor is the next Chubb, then you should value him more highly than Chubb because that three-year age gap could very well mean you get three extra seasons worth of prime production. The more uncertain you are about Taylor’s ability to become an elite back at the NFL level, the more you should discount him versus more proven young backs.
Yes, there is bust risk. But if somebody like Clyde Edwards-Helaire lives up to expectations as a rookie, he will be a top-five dynasty startup pick at this time next year.
Wide Receiver
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
1
|
Michael Thomas
|
48
|
2
|
Davante Adams
|
39
|
3
|
Chris Godwin
|
39
|
4
|
Tyreek Hill
|
39
|
5
|
DeAndre Hopkins
|
38
|
6
|
D.J. Moore
|
35
|
7
|
Mike Evans
|
32
|
8
|
A.J. Brown
|
30
|
9
|
JuJu Smith-Schuster
|
28
|
10
|
Odell Beckham
|
28
|
11
|
Amari Cooper
|
28
|
12
|
Kenny Golladay
|
26
|
13
|
DK Metcalf
|
24
|
14
|
Allen Robinson
|
24
|
15
|
Keenan Allen
|
21
|
16
|
Courtland Sutton
|
21
|
17
|
Calvin Ridley
|
21
|
18
|
CeeDee Lamb
|
21
|
19
|
Stefon Diggs
|
20
|
20
|
Jerry Jeudy
|
20
|
21
|
Julio Jones
|
19
|
22
|
Deebo Samuel
|
18
|
23
|
Cooper Kupp
|
18
|
24
|
D.J. Chark
|
18
|
25
|
Terry McLaurin
|
18
|
26
|
Tyler Boyd
|
17
|
27
|
Marquise Brown
|
17
|
28
|
Jalen Reagor
|
17
|
29
|
Jarvis Landry
|
16
|
30
|
Robert Woods
|
16
|
31
|
Tyler Lockett
|
15
|
32
|
Justin Jefferson
|
15
|
33
|
Diontae Johnson
|
14
|
34
|
DeVante Parker
|
13
|
35
|
Henry Ruggs
|
13
|
36
|
Adam Thielen
|
12
|
37
|
Michael Gallup
|
12
|
38
|
N'Keal Harry
|
12
|
39
|
Tee Higgins
|
12
|
40
|
Will Fuller
|
11
|
41
|
Brandon Aiyuk
|
11
|
42
|
Michael Pittman
|
11
|
43
|
A.J. Green
|
10
|
44
|
Darius Slayton
|
10
|
45
|
Christian Kirk
|
10
|
46
|
Laviska Shenault
|
10
|
47
|
Mecole Hardman
|
9
|
48
|
T.Y. Hilton
|
9
|
49
|
Mike Williams
|
8
|
50
|
Brandin Cooks
|
8
|
51
|
Preston Williams
|
8
|
52
|
Denzel Mims
|
8
|
53
|
Bryan Edwards
|
8
|
54
|
Sterling Shepard
|
7
|
55
|
Parris Campbell
|
7
|
56
|
Marvin Jones
|
7
|
57
|
Chase Claypool
|
7
|
58
|
Van Jefferson
|
7
|
59
|
Robby Anderson
|
6
|
60
|
Curtis Samuel
|
6
|
61
|
Allen Lazard
|
5
|
62
|
Hunter Renfrow
|
5
|
63
|
Breshad Perriman
|
5
|
64
|
John Brown
|
5
|
65
|
Jamison Crowder
|
5
|
66
|
Emmanuel Sanders
|
5
|
67
|
Sammy Watkins
|
5
|
68
|
Anthony Miller
|
5
|
69
|
Julian Edelman
|
4
|
70
|
Golden Tate
|
4
|
71
|
Corey Davis
|
4
|
72
|
Antonio Gandy-Golden
|
4
|
73
|
K.J. Hamler
|
4
|
74
|
Antonio Brown
|
3
|
75
|
Andy Isabella
|
3
|
76
|
John Ross
|
2
|
77
|
Tyrell Williams
|
2
|
78
|
Dede Westbrook
|
2
|
79
|
James Washington
|
2
|
80
|
Jalen Hurd
|
2
|
The Big Picture
The trends at the wide receiver position are not favorable for short-term fantasy value. As highlighted a couple months ago, the number of wide receivers seeing over 150 targets is way down. Most of the top offenses have made it a major priority to have three strong options at wide receiver, a pass-catching threat out of the backfield, and a dangerous tight end. Fewer teams are rolling out fullbacks and blocking specialist tight ends while force-feeding the ball to their WR1. These deeper offenses have proven especially difficult for opposing defenses to stop because there is always somebody with a favorable 1-on-1 matchup.
Unfortunately, top offenses spreading the ball around means we have fewer wide receivers putting up monster fantasy seasons (really just Michael Thomas last year). It also means we have more teams with two (or even three) viable fantasy wide receivers, making the pool of solid options deeper than ever.
What it means for you
This is the biggest question right now and something we should each be trying to figure out when it comes to startup drafts and trading strategy.
On one hand, it has never been easier to get replacement-level or even above production at wide receiver. Veterans like A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Will Fuller, T.Y. Hilton, DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, and Sterling Shepard are so cheap to acquire. Even upside youth like Marquise Brown, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, and Darius Slayton are relatively cheap. You can use your premium startup picks on other positions and still be just fine at wide receiver by grabbing a mix of the aforementioned veterans and rookies.
On the other hand, it is also much easier than at any time in recent memory to acquire top young talents like D.K. Metcalf, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, and the like. If you can load up now while these guys are cheap, you could be set for the next decade and be well-positioned if the trends shift and wide receiver value bounces back.
Quick Hits
D.J. Chark
If we could have a poster child for the change in how talented young wide receivers are being valued, Chark might be the guy. He is 23-years old, has elite athleticism, and is coming off of a 1,000-yard breakout season and is still going off of the board in the late-4th of startups and a couple rounds later in Superflex. The vibe out of Jacksonville is that Chark has a real shot to take another big step forward as the team moves him around to create more favorable matchups.
Diontae Johnson
Every offseason, we see the value of a few young wide receivers make a big leap. Last offseason, Chris Godwin and D.J. Moore were summer hype guys who required an overpay to acquire but proved to be well worth the price to acquire. Johnson looks like one of those guys this year as the praise of his play as a rookie seems almost universal.
Van Jefferson
Every draft year there are some wide receivers that fly just a bit below the radar despite solid draft capital and nice situations. Last year, Johnson and Terry McLaurin were those guys. Jefferson could be that guy this year. He was drafted in the second round and has the type of skill set that could lead to big PPR numbers as a high-volume target.
Tight End
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
1
|
George Kittle
|
28
|
2
|
Mark Andrews
|
23
|
3
|
Travis Kelce
|
23
|
4
|
Zach Ertz
|
15
|
5
|
Darren Waller
|
13
|
6
|
Hunter Henry
|
13
|
7
|
Evan Engram
|
13
|
8
|
Noah Fant
|
11
|
9
|
T.J. Hockenson
|
10
|
10
|
Austin Hooper
|
9
|
11
|
Dallas Goedert
|
8
|
12
|
Tyler Higbee
|
8
|
13
|
Irv Smith
|
7
|
14
|
Hayden Hurst
|
6
|
15
|
Mike Gesicki
|
6
|
16
|
Rob Gronkowski
|
6
|
17
|
Jonnu Smith
|
5
|
18
|
Blake Jarwin
|
4
|
19
|
O.J. Howard
|
4
|
20
|
Dawson Knox
|
4
|
21
|
Ian Thomas
|
3
|
22
|
Eric Ebron
|
3
|
23
|
Jared Cook
|
3
|
24
|
Cole Kmet
|
3
|
25
|
David Njoku
|
2
|
26
|
Kyle Rudolph
|
2
|
27
|
Chris Herndon
|
2
|
28
|
Greg Olsen
|
2
|
29
|
Devin Asiasi
|
2
|
30
|
Adam Trautmann
|
2
|
Big Picture Trends
From a dynasty perspective, the biggest tight end news this offseason has been that so many of the top fantasy performers from 2019 will face increased competition for targets. 6 of the top 13 dynasty tight ends play for teams that just drafted a wide receiver in the first round (George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Noah Fant, Dallas Goedert, and Irv Smith Jr.). Target volume could get tougher to come by for many of these top guys, which will make it more difficult for any of these guys to challenge Travis Kelce for the top spot.
What it means for you
It will keep the trade prices for guys like Fant and Smith, who were on the verge of becoming big potential risers, lower. If you believe in either long-term, the window to buy remains open. Also, there is probably more worry than is warranted for the target volume of somebody like Waller, which makes him a solid trade target.
For others, especially Kittle, there is almost no talk of how adding another talented young wide receiver might impact his volume. If Aiyuk is who Kyle Shanahan seems to think he is, he is going to garner a solid share of targets and it does potentially limit Kittle’s target upside. Kittle is still a great dynasty asset but the target volume will be interesting to monitor. The 49ers made the Super Bowl with Kittle putting up an 8-71-0 line in three playoff games.
Quick Hits
Tyler Higbee
All but the top few tight ends have questions about how much volume they will see. Higbee is no different. However, he has a clearer path to big numbers than many of the tight ends ranked above him because we just saw what it looked like late last season.
Look ahead to 2021
Pick Area
|
Value
|
Superflex
|
Early 1st
|
24
|
28
|
Mid 1st
|
16
|
20
|
Late 1st
|
12
|
14
|
2nd Rounder
|
6
|
7
|
3rd Rounder
|
4
|
4
|
With most 2020 rookie drafts in the rearview mirror, we will now start listing 2021 rookie pick values. Always take any predictions about a draft class a full year in advance with a grain of salt. Nobody was excited about Joe Burrow or Clyde Edwards-Helaire t this time last year and new names will certainly emerge.
With that said, the 2021 class looks like the second above-average class in a row. 2021 first rounders should be at least as valuable as normal, especially in Superflex leagues where we could see quarterbacks dominate the top of rookie drafts.
Here is the TL;DR for the 2021 rookie class:
- Quarterback, wide receiver and tight end are all shaping up to be above-average.
- Running back looks average or slightly below-average.
If you are interested, here is a quick positional preview of the 2021 rookie class to put some potential names on the picks that you might be trading away or for. I am a strong believer in the idea that putting potential names on the picks always helps get you to a more accurate valuation than looking at picks more generically.
Quarterback: Above-Average
In terms of immediate value entering the NFL, the 2021 quarterback class could be the best in quite a while because of how much fantasy upside the top three prospects each possess. It starts with Trevor Lawrence, who is the heavy favorite to go No. 1 overall next spring. He has above-average athleticism and looks like the safest bet for success since Andrew Luck. Justin Fields has more questions to answer before locking him as a surefire franchise guy but his fantasy upside is tantalizing. He’s well put together and boasts legitimate 4.40 speed. Lastly, Trey Lance from North Dakota State is in the conversation with the top two guys. He also boasts a fantasy-friendly dual-threat skill set. It would not be surprising if each of these three enters the league ranked as a top-15 dynasty quarterback.
Running Back: Average
On paper, it looked like 2021 would be a terrible year for running backs. But when three of the top eight draft eligible 2020 guys went back to school, it made the group look solid. Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Chuba Hubbard all would have been in the second-round mix with Dobbins, Taylor, Akers, and company had they not pulled out of the draft. There isn’t a lot behind them to get excited about but plenty of time for that to change.
Wide Receiver: Above-Average
The 2021 group has a chance to come in with as much, or more, hype than the 2020 class. We could again see six first round wide receivers. Ja'Marr Chase, Rondale Moore, Rashod Bateman, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave and others have a realistic chance to go in the first round next season.
Tight End: Above-Average
The 2021 class should be the best tight end class in at least three years. Kyle Pitts, Pat Freiermuth, and Brevin Jordan lead the way. These three are each expected to be drafted highly and profile as pass-first options.