DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 17

Photo: USA Today Sports

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Nailing down a common roster construction at any position is difficult in Week 17, and this year is no exception. We know Patrick Mahomes II is resting, which makes Deshaun Watson ($7,700) and Lamar Jackson ($8,000) the most likely quarterback choices for those who pay up. Ryan Tannehill ($7,000) should join them at the top of wishlists thanks to Tennessee’s slate-high 32-point implied team total. There are plenty of less expensive quarterbacks whose teams have a realistic chance to lead the slate in scoring, but an abundance of value at the running back and wide receiver positions may force the crowd to view options like Kirk Cousins ($6,300), Philip Rivers ($6,000), and Derek Carr ($5,900) as unnecessary.

Pivot Points: Who you use at quarterback shouldn’t matter much from a game theory perspective. Roster percentages will be so tightly clustered at the position, there isn’t a singular play that will gain you significant leverage on the field. If you want to go the contrarian route, Baker Mayfield ($5,500) is interesting now that he has his wide receiver group back. Pittsburgh will be resting key starters and Cleveland is implied to score a solid 26.25 points.

Running Back

There was already a ton of value at the running back position before we learned Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara (and Latavius Murray) would miss Week 17. With Alexander Mattison ($6,100) and Ty Montgomery ($4,000) added to the player pool, spending at the position can go in any number of directions. Derrick Henry ($9,400) should command plenty of attention, but it's just as likely the field takes a balanced approach to the position. Mattison, DAndre Swift ($6,300), Josh Jacobs ($6,200), Jeff Wilson ($6,000), and Melvin Gordon ($5,700) are each fairly priced in beatable matchups, while Malcolm Brown ($4,300) Ty Johnson ($4,300), and Montgomery are in line for full workloads at or around the running back min-price.

Pivot Points: The possible reward outweighs the risk that comes with Henry's inflated roster percentage. He’s within 223 yards of a 2,000-yard rushing season, Houston’s rush defense never puts up a fight, and even if the Titans clinch a playoff berth by virtue of a Miami or Indianapolis loss, seeding will still be on the line for Tennessee. Keep an eye on Chase Edmonds’ status. If we can project Kenyan Drake ($5,400) for 20 carries and Edmonds’ usual role in the passing game, 100+ scrimmage yards and multiple touchdowns are in play at a low-to-middling roster percentage.

Wide Receiver

Wide receiver is the most difficult position to project in Week 17 due to the sheer number of players with uncertain roles. Davante Adams ($9,200) and Calvin Ridley ($8,500) appear safe to play their usual snaps, and Justin Jefferson ($7,600) is 110 yards short of Anquan Boldin’s rookie receiving yardage record. One of those three will appear in common builds, along with a mid-to-high priced WR2 and bargain-bin WR3. Roster percentages are especially likely to concentrate in the $5K range where Jamison Crowder ($5,000), Tee Higgins ($5,000), and Mike Williams ($5,000) stand out. Laviska Shenault ($4,200), Jerry Jeudy ($4,200), and backups on the Chiefs and Chargers are the most obvious punt-plays.

Pivot Points: Adam Thielen ($7,400) has double Jefferson’s touchdown equity at half the projected roster percentage. If most entrants are spending up at WR1 and focusing on the $5K and below range to round out their remaining WR slots, leverage could emerge in the middle price tier. Think D.J. Moore ($5,700), Amari Cooper ($5,800), and maybe even Keke Coutee ($5,600), who is a reasonable pivot off Brandin Cooks in Watson stacks.

Tight End

George Kittle ($6,000) looked good on limited snaps in Week 16 and should be counted on for more work in this week’s matchup against Seattle. Kittle fits under the cap more easily than Darren Waller ($7,100), the odds-on favorite to lead the position in scoring with Travis Kelce likely to rest. Those who can’t squeeze Kittle in will look to heavily-targeted youngsters like Noah Fant ($4,400), Mike Gesicki ($4,200), and possibly Irv Smith ($3,900).

Pivot Points: Tight end playing time seems easier to project compared to other positions and early roster percentage projections don’t show many exploitable discrepancies. Jonnu Smith ($3,800) is a cheap way to get a piece of Tennesee’s high implied team total. Hayden Hurst ($3,700) warrants consideration as a matchup play against a Tampa Bay defense that struggles to defend tight ends.

Can You Trust The Chalk?

The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.

Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:

Jonathan Taylor (vs. JAX, $7,400, 20% rostered)
Since there is at least a chance Kamara and Henry won’t see their usual workloads, it wouldn’t be shocking if the crowd settled on Taylor as the safest high-end running back. The setup for success is certainly there. Indianapolis is playing at home, favored by two touchdowns against the worst team in the NFL, and implied to score 32 points. Taylor’s workload concerns have been erased over the past two weeks. He has now handled 67% of the Colts’ backfield touches since Week 15. While Taylor projects well enough for his price, optimal roster construction becomes a concern. If you play a lot of Taylor, it almost has to come at the expense of Adams and Ridley, who have established higher ceilings. And there is no shortage of cheaper running backs on this slate who can approximate Taylor’s production. If Taylor’s roster projection is creeping towards the mid-20% range by the weekend, fade him relative to the field.

Davante Adams (@CHI, $9,200, % 24 rostered)
If you’re reading a DFS article in Week 17, chances are you’re aware Adams is this year’s cumulative WR1 in DraftKings scoring, and you generally want to play him in all formats. The only question this week is about his playing time, and thankfully we shouldn’t have to worry about it. The Packers are fighting for home-field advantage in the NFC and their competition -- Seattle -- is playing at the same time. Chicago is also in a must-win situation and will be doing everything they can to keep the game competitive. The Bears’ pass defense, however, has faltered in the second half, ranking 10th in PPR fantasy points allowed to enemy wide receivers over the last five weeks. Adams still has a higher floor and ceiling than any wide receiver on the slate, especially with Aaron Rodgers looking to put the finishing touches on an MVP season. Play Adams at will.

Melvin Gordon (vs. LV, $5,700, 15% rostered)
It remains to be seen which of the running back value-plays will end up the crowd’s favorite after Murray, but Gordon feels like the leading candidate. Phillip Lindsay is on IR, which led to Gordon playing on nearly 70% of the offensive snaps in last week’s loss to the Chargers. While he ran well on 16 carries (4.9 yards per attempt), Gordon failed to score a touchdown and wasn’t targeted in the passing game, which left 22% of the field disappointed in last week’s Milly Maker. Considering Gordon is the team’s best option near the goal-line and can usually be counted on for about three targets per game, we’ll chalk the poor results up to variance. He should find the sledding much smoother against the Raiders. Las Vegas’ struggles defending the run have persisted all season, and they’ve allowed ceiling games to Myles Gaskin (33.9 points) and Jonathan Taylor (33.5 points) since Week 14. Consider about 40% exposure to Gordon if you’re multi-entering.

Leverage Plays

You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.

Nick Chubb (vs. PIT, $7,600, 8% rostered)
While the crowd is debating whether to spend up to Kamara or Henry or roster three running backs under $6K instead, Chubb will get lost in the shuffle, creating an exploitable leverage opportunity. Pittsburgh effectively conceded this game by giving Mason Rudolph the start at quarterback. Vegas agrees. The Browns, who need a win to keep their playoff chances alive, are favored by double-digits and implied to score more than 26 points. We can expect Kevin Stefanski to lean on Chubb in a game script Cleveland should control from the opening whistle. Kareem Hunt’s usage is bothersome, but Chubb is talented enough to clear 100 yards and score multiple touchdowns in his usual role as the 60/40 leader in a committee.

Corey Davis (@HOU, $6,200, 7% rostered)
Roster percentages on Titans players will concentrate around Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown, making Davis an ideal leverage play. We can toss aside the zero in Davis’ Week 16 boxscore easily enough. There were snowy conditions on the road in Green Bay and Tennessee’s offense never got off the ground in a blowout loss against one of the league’s better pass defenses. This week’s matchup against the Texans presents no such obstacles. The back-end of Houston’s defense is only slightly better than their abysmal run-stopping unit. Davis’ established ceiling is 5x his current salary, and Tannehill may force him the ball to help him over 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

T.Y. Hilton (vs. JAX, $5,800, 11% rostered)
Hilton has cooled down since a white-hot stretch from Weeks 12-14, during which he averaged 7.6 targets, 5.6 receptions, 92.3 receiving yards, and 1.3 touchdowns per game. But his target volume and receiving production has remained steady over the last two weeks, and Hilton should benefit from the potential absence of Michael Pittman, who is in the league’s concussion protocol. The crowd will look to Jonathan Taylor first for access to Indianapolis’ 32-point implied total, but the only thing worse than Jacksonville’s rush defense is their pass defense. Hilton is in play for the 100-yard bonus and a long touchdown as the Colts look to keep their playoff hopes alive in a cakewalk matchup. Zach Pascal gets a bump with Pittman expected to scratch also.

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