This article is about a 13-minute read.
A big part of a successful draft is finding players after Round 10 who will surprise. The quest for deep sleepers is one all fantasy players undertake. We asked our staffers for help finding them. To focus our search, we will go through each division. Today, the NFC West.
And to clarify, by Deep Sleeper, we are talking about players who generally not drafted in the first 10 rounds.
Chad Parsons
My three finalists for this category are Chase Edmonds, Brandon Aiyuk, and Greg Olsen. The arguments for each are as follows:
With Edmonds in Arizona, Kenyan Drake is entering his age-26 season and has never been a dependable starter for a full season, even dating back through his Alabama career. The expectations are sky-high in 2020 for Drake, but Edmonds is still very affordable as a hedge that something, anything, goes awry with Drake fulfilling expectations.
For Aiyuk in San Francisco, Deebo Samuel is a variable on when he will be ready to go. While not a high probability, the PUP list or missing a few games to start the season is not out of the range of probabilities. Aiyuk would have a clear run of wide receiver targets if Samuel is out at any point, but a tempered ceiled if Samuel is active.
Olsen is one of my favorite deep sleepers regardless of position. Will Dissly is coming off his second consecutive season shortened by significant injury and Olsen still has TE1 production left in him, especially with Russell Wilson. I expect Olsen to be the Week 1 starter and possibly run with the job as Dissly is eased back into snaps. By then, Olsen may be entrenched and tough to unseat for a likely Seattle contender.
Ryan Hester
Edmonds is the clear answer for me here as well. The combination of his electric skills and high-end offense makes him an RB1 candidate any week Kenyan Drake is out. Carlos Hyde is another player with the potential to return starter value in multiple weeks. Rashad Penny had a late-season ACL tear and will likely begin this season on the PUP list. And Chris Carson is returning from a hip injury. If Carson isn't ready for Week 1, the backfield is likely Hyde's all to himself. And any Carson re-injury would create a similar situation.
Jeff Haseley
I planted my flag on a deep sleeper already in Jalen Hurd, so I will stick with him for this examination of NFC West deep sleepers. I was shocked how well both he and Deebo Samuel looked in their first preseason game last year. Hurd only played one preseason game because he injured his back, but before the injury he caught two touchdown passes and was by all accounts, impressing his teammates in training camp. The back injury ultimately led to a trip to IR and he was lost for the season. His emergence into the NFL was put on hold.
Hurd was the 49ers third-round pick in 2019. He was formerly a three-year running back at Tennessee and started at running back for Tennessee in 2015 ahead of Alvin Kamara and John Kelly. That year he finished with over 1,300 yards and 14 total touchdowns. After the 2016 season, he decided to transfer to Baylor which meant sitting out for the entire 2017 season. At Baylor, he played wide receiver catching 69 passes for 946 yards. He exceeded 100 yards receiving in three games and totaled 7 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns.
Hurd's versatility and multi-dimensional talent are right in Kyle Shanahan's wheelhouse. If he continues to develop and show signs of success, he could become a key piece to the 49ers offensive arsenal.
Matt Waldman
I love the Greg Olsen pick by Chad, and Olsen is one of the players I'm targeting late and have recommended multiple times to readers in the various analysis I've posted this summer. What he does best complements what Russell Wilson does well--especially those seam routes breaking open in the red zone.
I also like Jeff's call on Jalen Hurd. What Hurd did to become a viable receiving candidate after entering college football has a load-carrying, 5-star running back at Tennessee is impressive. Hurd has the potential to grow into a good NFL starter.
For the sake of adding variety, I'm rolling with rookie runner Eno Benjamin. My nickname for Benjamin is "98 Proof," because his style and talents are close to LeSean McCoy.
Benjamin has great agility, creativity, strong receiving skills, and starting-caliber vision between the tackles. His ball security went from great as a junior to awful as a senior, which isn't enough to explain why his value dropped to the sixth round after earning a lot of buzz as one of the most talented runners of this draft class to begin the year. While it's only speculation, and I had to do so, players who experience this precipitous drop are often guys who didn't interview well at the Combine or had specific off-field concerns that weren't made public.
If that speculation has nothing substantial behind it, Benjamin is a great fit for the Cardinals offense and could challenge Chase Edmunds long term for the backup role. With COVID-19 an added challenge and running backs spending so much time at the bottom of piles, it's possible that we may see Benjamin in action earlier than we expect. We all hope it's not for these reasons but for whatever reason that places Benjamin in a contributing role, he's a player I expect to shine beyond current expectations.
Dan Hindery
With the added risk of COVID-19 this season on top of the typical injury concerns, stocking up on backup running backs looks like a great strategy this season. Chase Edmonds, Carlos Hyde, and Jerick McKinnon look like the best mix of draft value and potential upside.
I'll also second the Brandon Aiyuk suggestion. The 49ers were aggressive in trading up in the first round to get him, despite not having many picks to work with. He looks like a great fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense because he is dynamite with the ball in his hands and few coaches do a better job of scheming wide receivers open for YAC opportunities. With Deebo Samuel's foot injury, it wouldn't be surprising if Aiyuk makes an immediate impact.
Jeff Pasquino
One tight end in Seattle could emerge, and it may not be Greg Olsen. While we are focused on the future Hall of Fame tight end's new team, Will Dissly was quite the productive tight end for the first five weeks last season (23-262-4) before a torn Achilles cost him the rest of the year last October. Dissly is on pace to be ready for Week 1, and at just 24 he is playing to re-establish himself as a top option at tight end once again. Dissly had the most touchdowns of any tight end last year through the first five weeks, but he will have to prove it again to earn the starting job, keep it and hopefully land a new contract prior to becoming a free agent after the 2021 season.
Now, while I like Dissly for both the upside and the low, low price of a last-round pick in most drafts, there is one other player in the NFC West that I am also keeping close tabs on for this year. The Rams love to throw the ball and are one of the top offenses when it comes to putting three wide receivers on the field. With Brandin Cooks now in Houston, the door is open for either veteran Josh Reynolds or rookie Van Jefferson to join Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp on the field with regularity in Los Angeles. Jared Goff will be working without Todd Gurley this year, and while the Rams sort out their new backfield, expect more passing yards and production from the passing game seems very reasonable given that Goff has been a Top 12 (or better) fantasy quarterback the past three years. Goff had fewer touchdown passes (22) in 2019 than in the previous two seasons (28 and 32, respectively), so a return to the high 20s or low 30s in that stat with similar yardage should make the eventual third wideout starting for the Rams quite valuable. If either Kupp (9 missed games in the past three seasons) or Woods (five games over three years) miss time, both Reynolds and Jefferson represent incredible upside and value as late-round options. In deep leagues, drafting both and then cutting the non-starter as bye weeks approach also affords a fantasy owner to take a shot at finding the WR3 in Los Angeles and then creating roster room to pick up other values off of the waiver wire.
Jason Wood
I love the Greg Olsen and Eno Benjamin love, but no one has offered up the correct answer yet; it's Darrell Henderson. How quickly the worm turns among fickle fantasy owners. Henderson was the reason most fantasy analysts thought Todd Gurley would disappoint last year, and now he's being cast aside because of rookie Cam Akers? Henderson has a skill set that, at worst, pairs well with Akers in a committee approach. Yet he comes at a far cheaper cost. Henderson is available at a point in drafts when other backs taken are clear backups who need an injury to an entrenched starter to see value. Henderson, on the other hand, could win the 1a role with a strong training camp.
Matt Waldman
You’re a confident fellow, Wood. If the line in LA inspired more confidence, I would be with you—especially with the Rams likely going with more gap plays that is Henderson’s strength. But if he gets lost with outside zone like last year, he will remain stuck in the paddock.
I am 70 percent with you, Wood. Kind of like the dude letting you take the lead as you want to explore that dilapidated shack with the meat hooks hanging from it that’s a quarter of a mile from the BBQ joint we passed before the car broke down and there hasn’t been a cow in sight for the past 30 miles...
Bob Henry
My first take on this is Greg Olsen. He's one of my favorite players in best balls for all of the reasons stated above. I am a big fan of Will Dissly, too, but I don't share the optimism that he'll be ready Week 1. I've dabbled with a best ball formula (where I typically take 3 tight ends) of taking the Olsen/Dissly combo among my last 5 picks when I can get one of the top four early on. Olsen surely isn't near his prime, but with Russell Wilson, he doesn't need to be prolific in the red zone and has enough of a target share to have several weeks of top-10 tight end production.
I will also get behind Chase Edmonds considering how I've made a case for Kenyan Drake in other spots this summer. When Edmonds was vaulted into the team's featured back role in Week 7, he crushed it with 150 yards and 3 TDs. Durability is a concern if he's thrust into the same role due to injury and Eno Benjamin would almost certainly factor into that scenario to boot. Still, Edmonds is a clear handcuff for a Cardinal team that ran the ball efficiently last year and their offensive line should only be better in 2020.
I wouldn't add my thoughts here if I didn't bring my own player into the mix either. The one that nobody else has named yet is Gerald Everett. The Rams heavily featured 12 personnel in the second half last year. The personnel change helped Jared Goff immensely, but even without that, Everett was TE11 through Week 10 with 34-365-2 across nine games. He out-snapped Tyler Higbee, had more targets, and saw more red-zone targets, too. I'm on board with both Rams tight ends to be fair. Like a Genie, you just can't put Higbee back in the bottle. He was too good, but let's not lose sight of the fact that Everett is good as well and the Rams invested the 44th pick (2nd round) in him.
Dealing Brandin Cooks shouldn't have been a surprise at all. With Everett and Higbee on the field, they are playing to their strengths and I believe we'll see more of that this year with Everett being essentially free in the 17th round or later.
Andy Hicks
Jeff Pasquino getting in ahead of me once again. My answer is Will Dissly as well.
First of all, we need to discuss Greg Olsen. He hasn’t finished as a starting tight end since 2016, and at best, he scrapes into the bottom of that group. That is providing he can play every game. He is here for his leadership.
I would rather take a tight end that has a much higher upside than someone I have to decide between three tight ends every week. Dissly is a young player and has top-end starting production in six of the eight games he finished. In fact, he was on pace to be an elite player last year before injury hit.
Trivia question, who was the number one ranked tight end after five weeks last year? Of course, it was Dissly. To now be drafted as an afterthought is ridiculous. He is young, developing, and productive. Injury is his only problem. I would rather take the massive upside Dissly has than the safe, but sorry result Greg Olsen will produce.
Phil Alexander
The usual suspects have already been named, so I'll just weigh in on which I agree with and which I don't.
Viable Deep Sleepers in order of priority:
- Chase Edmonds - I don't even like calling him a deep sleeper because he should be drafted as soon as the first 30-35 running backs are off the board. I'd wager articles like this one will get him there by the time most leagues draft next month.
- Jalen Hurd - If Deebo Samuel misses the start of the season, my money is on Hurd making it harder for Kyle Shanahan to remove him from the field than Aiyuk. Hurd has been learning the offense since May of last season, while Aiyuk has only been on Zoom meetings since the NFL Draft. As a former running back, Hurd is a natural runner after the catch. He should see high-percentage targets from the slot and possibly even a couple of carries per game.
- Gerald Everett - Everett is a superior athlete to Tyler Higbee and was experiencing a breakout of his own before a knee injury all but ended his season in Week 12. If the Rams continue to run 12 personnel as their base formation, Everrett has just as much to gain as Higbee.
- Greg Olsen - The combination of Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister accounted for six weekly top-10 tight end fantasy finishes last season, which was the same as Darren Waller and one more than Austin Hooper. Olsen endured garbage quarterback play and still turned in a TE13 finish in PPR leagues last year at age-34. Russell Wilson is the perfect quarterback to squeeze one last top-10 finish out of Olsen.
Deep Sleepers you should not draft and will (justifiably) end up dropping after Week 1 if you do:
- Will Dissly - Dissly was a lumbering runner before he ruptured his patellar tendon and tore his Achilles in back-to-back years. He's in a race to make it back for Week 1, and now there's a future Hall of Famer ahead of him on the depth chart. Everything Dissly can do, Olsen can do better. Nothing to see here.
- Darrell Henderson - He's cheap enough to poke at late, but the equation doesn't solve. Henderson is in the Rams plans but never got close to sniffing the rotation as a rookie? And with holes all over their roster, LA drafted Cam Akers as soon as they had the chance because they're desperate for a 1-2 punch? Akers has the tools to play on all three downs sooner than later and won't leave much work for Henderson. The Rams also have a scary schedule against the run.
Bob Henry
Another angle on Jalen Hurd that Phil mentioned (as a former running back) is the crazy, but non-zero chance, that Kyle Shanahan could use him in goal-line situations as a runner whether it's a straight-up handoff or an end-around. Six different players ran for a score last year. Hurd scored 33 touchdowns in college and only 10 of those were on the receiving end. He's physically capable and it wouldn't be beyond the realm of rational coaching for Shanahan to construct a package of plays with Hurd in that role.
If Jeff Wilson could score 4 times behind Mostert's 8 and Coleman's 6 TDs, there is room for Hurd to cross the line a few times and then add another few as a receiver in the big slot role. It's not the most likely outcome, but it's not as unrealistic as it might seem either.
Jordan McNamara
I like the Greg Olsen pick if you are going to wait on tight ends. I also like Chase Edmonds as a one-injury-away running back in Arizona.
I'll go another route with Carlos Hyde. Rashaad Penny is recovering from a knee injury while Chris Carson is recovering from a hip injury of his own. Hyde resurrected his career in Houston last year after appearing on the fringe of the NFL as recently as last August. Hyde is the type of big body bruiser who has found success in the Seattle backfield. With the health concerns of both Penny and Carson, there is a chance Hyde is a starter in Seattle. Seattle had the third-most rushing attempts in 2019 with 481, so there is plenty of volume for Hyde if the opportunity presents itself.
Andrew Davenport
I really like the call on Gerald Everett. I'm not here to say I know what will happen with the Everett/Higbee situation, but there is no concrete evidence that Everett is phased out and because of that he's worthy of a late-round pick.
If I had to pick my favorite one though, I'm keeping my eye on Kendrick Bourne. The 49ers thought enough of him to put a second-round tender on him this offseason and there are rumors that San Francisco is trying to extend him. He saw the third-most snaps among wide receivers last year, and now Emmanuel Sanders is gone. Jalen Hurd is a heck of a player, and I don't doubt he has the ability to get on the field, but right now Samuel and Bourne look like the two who will be getting the most snaps to start. If comments coming out of San Francisco are accurate, he looks poised to make a leap in 2020 and could be a really fun player to watch if things break right. After seeing a spike in snap count from Week 7 on he scored five touchdowns on 34 targets in 10 games. He doesn't need to be drafted, but I'm waiting for his name to pop up in camp to see if he's making a case, especially with Samuel working his way back from a broken foot.
