With the news of Dalvin Cook potentially holding out of training camp for a new contract, Alexander Mattison has taken on new importance in fantasy football. As a member of the 2017 NFL Draft class, Cook is on the final year of his rookie deal and is looking to extend his contract before taking the risk of the 2020 season.
With a strong class in 2017, there are other contract situations to monitor leading up to the 2020 season.
2017 First Round Picks
The 2017 NFL Draft class saw two running backs selected in the first round: Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette.
McCaffrey has signed a long-term extension with the Panthers, but the Jaguars have declined Fournette’s fifth-year option. This makes Fournette a free agent after the 2020 season. Ryquell Armstead is the current backup, but as a Day 3 pick, he is likely to face added competition before 2021 if Fournette is not re-signed.
New Orleans
Alvin Kamara has finished as RB3, RB4, and RB9 to begin his career. He is in line to get paid but there have been no recent reports indicating he will hold out. Latavius Murray operated as the lead running back in New Orleans when Kamara was injured in 2019, starting Week 7 and 8 while finishing as the RB1 during that stretch. Murray handled 84% and 82% of the snaps respectively while producing .55 wins over replacement player (WORP), an elite pace.
Murray has been solid if not spectacular throughout his six-year career. Murray has no fewer than 162 touches in the past five seasons, with at least six touchdowns during each of those seasons.
Murray projects as a top-15 play in any week Kamara misses. If Kamara holds out, look for Murray to rise over the RB46 in our consensus ranks. If Kamara were to hold out, a ranking in the Top 25 is not unreasonable.
Ty Montgomery represents a cheaper value. A former college wide receiver, Montgomery converted to running back and led the Green Bay backfield to begin the 2017 season, including performing as the RB4 through three weeks before suffering an injury. Montgomery has bounced around the NFL since then with stops with the Ravens and Jets, but he has not been able to reclaim his 2017 form.
If there is one system that could maximize that role, it would be New Orleans. At this point, Montgomery is unranked in our consensus rankings, so he is more of a monitor outside of the deepest leagues. If Kamara holds out, Montgomery is an interesting late-round speculation pick.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon is also entering the final year of his rookie deal but has not reached the heights of Cook or Kamara. With RB10 and RB13 finishes in the past two seasons, Mixon’s best season is behind McCaffrey(RB1), Fournette (RB7), Kamara (RB4), Cook (RB6), Kareem Hunt (RB4), Conner (RB6), Aaron Jones (RB2), and Austin Ekeler (RB4) from the 2017 draft class.
Mixon’s rank of RB7 in our consensus ranks reflects his upside, especially with a new quarterback in Joe Burrow as well as the return of wide receiver A.J. Green and tackle Jonah Williams.
In the event of a holdout, Cincinnati has several options. Veteran Giovani Bernard is under contract through 2021 but could be cut to save money. However, Bernard is a team captain and the Bengals have plenty of cap space heading in 2020, so he is likely to be back given he signed his extension last season. The Bengals have other options, including second-year players Rodney Anderson and Trayveon Williams. Anderson was a day two talent whose career dating back to college has been plagued by injuries. The most likely beneficiary of a Mixon holdout would be Bernard as the leader of a committee backfield. At RB72 in our consensus ranks, Bernard would also be the favorite for lead duties if Mixon is injured. The competition between Williams and Anderson will be important to monitor in training camp.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones had a breakout year in 2019, only to see the Packers draft A.J. Dillon in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. This is a major caution flag for Jones as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick. Running backs on Day 3 of the NFL Draft have low hit rates, and even when they hit, their density, or the number of hits, is lower than higher draft picks. With Jordan Howard, Lamar Miller, and Devonta Freeman the leading day three picks in recent memory, expecting long-term elite production from Jones is a dangerous proposition. Jones has little leverage in a contract negotiation at this point, but if he chose to hold out, Dillon or Jamaal Williams is the likely beneficiary. The pick of Dillon makes it much more likely the Packers chose to move on from Jones than pay him in free agency.
Look Ahead
Planning a year out is critical for dynasty leagues. Two notable players with potential contract situations to monitor include Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb. Barkley has a fifth-year option which is likely to get exercised by the Giants. This gives the Giants additional leverage over a Barkley hold out.
On the other hand, Chubb will be entering the final year of his contract in 2021. With an injury history, Chubb has an incentive to lock in a long-term deal before his final season. Kareem Hunt will also be a free agent in 2021, so monitoring the rest of the running back corp in Cleveland is a source of potential value.
