The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Darren Waller, Las Vegas
Phil Alexander: Derek Carr has leaned on his tight end in the absence of a No. 1 wide receiver in each of the last two seasons, first with Jared Cook in 2018, and last year with Waller. While the Raiders' clutch of young pass-catchers remains unproven, there will be more competition for targets this year as the team heads to Las Vegas. First-round pick Henry Ruggs is a candidate to be force-fed and Bryan Edwards, a big-bodied X receiver in the Alshon Jeffery mold, was a steal in Round 3. The Raiders also added another tight end to challenge for snaps in the form of future Hall of Famer, Jason Witten, to go along with last year's fourth-rounder, Foster Moreau. If you miss out on one of the top-4 tight ends, you're better off trying to find this year's Waller in the late rounds than paying a premium for last year's numbers.
Andrew Davenport: A lot of factors had to combine for Waller to put up as many points as he did in 2019. He had 117 targets and 90 receptions, but it could be argued that the Raiders possessed one of the weaker wide receiver units in the league all while fighting injuries to the group at the same time. Now the Raiders have addressed that need and have brought in three exciting young pass-catchers through the draft. The selection of Lynn Bowden alone is cause for concern as he is likely to eat up some short targets. The situation has gone in the wrong direction for Waller. There is room to argue that his three touchdowns is a low enough number that he'll score more in 2020, but if his volume is cut down there isn't much of a way for Waller to pay off his lofty price tag. It's not as though he will be a poor fantasy asset, but taking him where he is being drafted right now doesn't leave much room for Waller to live up to his ADP.
Justin Howe: Waller's magical 2019 won't be repeated. The Raiders realized just how dependent short-armed Derek Carr grew on safety valve Waller last year, and they addressed things with three impact packs in the draft. Even if Carr starts 16 games, there's almost no chance Waller draws another 117 targets, and he might not land close. His relative lack of downfield and red-zone usage caps his ceiling, which doesn't compare to that of some of his peers.
Jordan McNamara: Darren Waller had a terrific breakout late in his career for the Raiders last season. Waller was targeted on 22% of his team's targets, on par with Zach Ertz and just below Kelce (24%). How did the Raiders feel about it? They drafted wide receivers in the first round (Henry Ruggs) and the third round (Brian Edwards), a pass-catching running back in the third round (Lynn Bowden), and signed Jason Witten. All that creates the risk of a sharp reduction in volume. If there is a positive, Waller only scored three touchdowns despite 90 receptions, so he has scoring regression opportunities if his volume drops, but there are cheaper options with less risk at the position.
Chad Parsons: Waller came out of the ether for a monster breakout season. The late bloomer was originally a boom-bust wide receiver prospect with Baltimore who has morphed into a move tight end. Waller had an ideal setting for a huge 2019 with a lack of wide receiver production. Fast forward to 2020 and the Raiders added Jason Witten at tight end and drafted wide receivers in the first (Henry Ruggs III) and third (Bryan Edwards) rounds of the NFL Draft. Josh Jacobs should catch more passes as well in Year 2. Competition for targets will be much higher for Waller in 2020, who saw 46 targets more than any of his teammates a year ago.
Jeff Pasquino: Waller was the lone bright spot for the Raiders in the passing game, building on his potential to lead the Raiders in receptions (90) and yards (1,146) by a large margin. Waller was considered a sleeper last year and he more than met his potential as he became a Pro Bowler in his second season with Oakland / Las Vegas. Derek Carr targeted Waller 117 times last year, a large number mostly due to the dearth of wide receiver talent after the toxic Antonio Brown situation led to his release prior to Week 1. Waller may see a dip in production this year as the Raiders have added talent at wide receiver starting with first-rounder Henry Ruggs.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay
Jeff Haseley: I'm not convinced that Rob Gronkowski will be the same dominant player that he was in the previous decade. He may have some big games here and there, but can he be a consistent threat? That's still up for debate. When the league debuts on September 10th, it will be 585 days since his last game, a Super Bowl 53 win against the Rams. Keep in mind, Gronkowski had 47 receptions for 682 yards and 3 touchdowns in 13 games in 2018, his last season in the league. He finished TE11 that year. His days of being an elite tight end are behind him, in my opinion.
Ryan Hester: At tight end, the preferred strategy is to either invest in a top-tier difference-maker or wait and try to strike gold in the late rounds with players like Mark Andrews and Darren Waller in 2019 or George Kittle in 2018. Gronkowski is squarely in the in-between tier of tight ends. Aside from that, he’s coming out of retirement and learning a new system. With O.J. Howard still in town, Gronkowski could be a situational player only. And with two target-hog wide receivers in addition to Howard, Gronkowski won’t be a high-volume asset. He could score eight or more touchdowns and return draft value, but that’s not a dice roll worth taking.
Andy Hicks: It could be just as easy to make an undervalued argument for Rob Gronkowski as one for him being overvalued. He is the ultimate high upside, low floor player this year. While the romanticism of a reunion with Tom Brady will be overplayed, the reality of the situation is that both are in new environments at the end of their careers. Gronkowski in particular has several major targets to compete with such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard. He seems to fit better as a red-zone target or key third-down receiver than an every-down player. Expecting regular high-end production is unlikely. Another thing to consider is the teary footage of Gronkowski explaining the toll the game has taken on his body. Does he want to play in pain anymore? Too risky for me.
Chad Parsons: After a year off of football, Gronkowski returns to the NFL and reunites with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. Juxtaposed to the previous environment in New England, Gronkowski will compete with 2019 top-five fantasy receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin plus Round 1-pedigreed O.J. Howard at tight end for targets. Will Tom Brady maintain the high level of fantasy utility in Tampa Bay as Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick? That sounds tongue in cheek, but the pair was electric from a yards and touchdowns standpoint. The interceptions are bound to recede with Brady in 2020, but assuming Gronkowski is A) the same player from his prime to warrant high-level targets and optimize them and B) the offense will be an elite unit feeding 2-3 strong fantasy options, which will include Gronkowski are both leaps of faith. At best, Gronkowski is a neutral value compared to his draft position with plenty of downside and risk.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Jared Cook, New Orleans
James Brimacombe: Cook scored a career-best, nine touchdowns in 2019 while missing two games. It is hard to view him as an overvalue as he has back to back seasons with strong fantasy production finishing as the TE5 and TE6. He will also be entering his 12th NFL season and there is concern that the Saints could be looking to ease up the workload as they drafted Adam Trautman with an early selection and also have Josh Hill in the mix to steal opportunities.
Andy Hicks: There were times in 2019 where it looked like Jared Cook would struggle to reach his expected draft slot, but by seasons end he managed to get there. Taking a closer look and it was all smoke and mirrors. Nine touchdowns from 43 receptions are not likely to be repeated. His four previous seasons resulted in nine touchdowns and his target per game number was his lowest since his last year with the Rams in 2015. At age 33 and the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders, all point to even fewer targets and unless he repeats his touchdown ratio it is likely to be a disappointing season for those expecting starting fantasy numbers.
Justin Howe: One of the biggest mistakes fantasy drafters make is paying for efficiency (big per-snap upswings in yardage and touchdowns), which is fungible, over volume, which is steadier. That's what's happening right now -- when you run a mock draft and Cook goes ahead of someone like Tyler Higbee or Dallas Goedert. He just doesn't offer the volume opportunity (65 targets over a full 2019) you want from this point in the draft. Now, Cook isn't a draft-killer - he's going right around the TE10 spot, give or take, which makes sense given his upside. He did, after all, score 9 times and put up 16.4 yards a catch last year. Still, he projects to lose the volume battle by a mile to some of his peers - guys roughly as capable of putting up big-efficiency seasons themselves. And that was the case even before the team added Emmanuel Sanders to the mix. I may take on some Cook exposure in drafts where he falls majorly, but I won't be paying a premium for 45 catches and praying for touchdowns.
Evan Engram, NY Giants
Andrew Davenport: It's another year and Engram is yet again sneaking up the draft boards to command a hefty price. It's not as though Engram can't deliver, but it doesn't seem as though his injury risk is being properly baked into his ADP as it should be. Engram has missed almost half of his teams' games since entering the league two years ago and while sometimes these things are fluky, it is certainly reasonable to wonder if he is going to be able to stay on the field. His talent is not the question, but when drafting a guy as high as he is being selected there should be less risk than Engram offers.
Jason Wood: Evan Engram is immensely talented, and I understand the logic of buying into a bounce-back season. He was TE5 as a rookie, so the upside is undeniable. But his career has moved in the wrong direction since. He finished TE13 in 2018 (11 games) and TE18 last year (8 games). On a per-game basis, he's still productive. But after missing 13 games in two seasons, why should we presume health? More importantly, Engram's price tag doesn't reflect the increased risk. He's coming off the board in the same vicinity as a year ago, which makes no sense.
Matt Waldman: There's no doubt that Engram has the skills to perform as a fantasy starter, but he hasn't completed a season during his career, and the number of games he plays continues dropping each year. Predicting injury is a difficult thing to do, but when a player doesn't have a track record of staying healthy and completing seasons in consecutive years, there's a point where you prefer to see the player prove he can remain healthy before projecting a full year of work. Therefore, projecting Engram as a fantasy starter is too risky.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia
Ryan Hester: Ertz isn’t likely to be a colossal bust in 2020, but he isn’t likely to provide significant profit on this draft price either. At tight end and quarterback, fantasy managers should shoot for upside. Drafting a player in the TE4-7 range who doesn’t have an overall TE1 ceiling isn't an optimal strategy. Players like Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, and Mike Gesicki offer similar ceilings than Ertz does, and they cost a fraction of the draft capital. Ertz is likely to produce the kind of season that a pick in this range should, but the opportunity cost of selecting an every-week starter at running back or receiver in this range isn’t worth pulling the trigger on Ertz in this range.
Andy Hicks: There is no doubt that Zach Ertz is seen as a safe starting tight end in fantasy football. He should finish as a starting option once again, but my concern is that this year there is no value at all. Turning 30 is one thing that stifles his upside, but the presence of Dallas Goedert is the primary reason for doubt. From week six onwards last year they produced very similar stats and as Goedert ascends it is only reasonable to assume that what goes up, must come down. Ertz has seen his career peak, while Goedert is on his way. How far Ertz falls is the key. He is still productive, but you try not to draft players that have their draft slot as their upside.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Mark Andrews, Baltimore
Jason Wood: Mark Andrews was a league-winner last year for many who opted to wait until the later rounds for a tight end. While most thought the smart play was targeting Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, or Austin Hooper after the top three came off the board, that strategy turned out to be a disaster while the Andrew or Darren Waller late-round choices were incredible. But fantasy managers tend to suffer from recency bias, and now Andrews is priced for perfection. Touchdowns accounted for 41% of Andrews' fantasy production last year, which was among the highest at the position and well above league average. Regression is a risk, particularly when other top options like Travis Kelce (20%), Darren Waller (14%), and George Kittle (22%) have positive regression looming.
Noah Fant, Denver
Jeff Pasquino: Noah Fant falls just beyond the TE1 category as we enter 2020, even though he had a respectable season as a rookie (40-562-3). Denver added two wide receivers in the NFL draft this year (Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler) along with veteran tailback Melvin Gordon, all of whom could steal targets from Fant. With Drew Lock as the planned starter for 2020, it is worth noting that Fant had minimal numbers in the five games Lock started at the end of 2019 (10-188-1, mostly from a 4-113-1 performance in Week 14 against Houston). Fant was not targeted often by Lock (14 targets in five games), hinting that their chemistry still needs work. Expecting Fant to build upon 2019 and become a starting fantasy tight end this year may be asking a bit too much.
Tyler Higbee, LA Rams
Andrew Davenport: This opinion could certainly change as the summer goes on, but the anointing of Higbee has been one of the more curious developments this offseason. To be clear, there is ample evidence that Higbee can be a big-time producer if given the chance and it appeared that the Rams did that to close out the year. He was above 86% snap share for the final five games, even when Gerald Everett returned from injury. But the cautionary tale is that Everett was still banged up and the small sample that the Rams provided can't necessarily be seen as dispositive of what will happen in 2020. Assuming that Higbee is "the guy", and having it confirmed, are two very different things. Until there is more evidence that Higbee has firmly grabbed the job as his, or that the Rams will continue to run more 12 personnel, the price for him in drafts is too high.
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit
James Brimacombe: The Lions spent a first-round, 8th-overall pick on Hockenson a year ago, and as a rookie, he reeled in 32 of 59 passes for 367 yards and a pair of touchdowns in 12 games. He experienced a huge opening game with six catches, 131 yards, and a touchdown, but after that, he seemed to hit a wall over his next 11 games before going down with a season-ending ankle injury. With the struggles after Week 1 and the ankle injury, I am going to take more of a wait and see approach with Hockenson in 2020.
