Week 10 highlighted the need to balance trends within each offense against their matchup. No matter how positive a game environment might be, the full range of outcomes has to be considered. Carson Wentz facing the Giants’ secondary (who he had just tagged for 2 touchdowns three weeks ago) couldn’t even produce double-digit fantasy points. Derek Carr, on a team that scored 37 points against Denver, only threw for 154 yards and not a single touchdown. Duke Johnson Jr with a full workload only had 54 yards in the wind against Cleveland. Each team has their own set of tendencies that can help set that range of outcomes as we go over some of our rosters. With the playoffs just around the corner, I took a look at three more players that exited Week 10 making fantasy headlines for better or for worse.
Quarterback: Jared Goff, Rams
Week 8 Results: 22.5 (Projected), 10.5 (Actual)
Everyone’s excited to start most of the Rams’ offensive players in fantasy. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are mainstays with Josh Reynolds becoming a larger factor over the last six weeks. The running back trio of Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, and Cam Akers is infuriating, but there’s value if you know which one to start each week. Even the tight ends have some appeal given the nature of their position. Jared Goff doesn’t carry the same appeal. The same guy we’re depending on to put the others in positive positions to score isn’t a consideration in DFS and is tough to trust in season-long matchups. Last week was a perfect example. Seattle entered Week 10 with a historically bad secondary. They had allowed two or more passing touchdowns in every game except in Week 2, but Cam Newton still had a pair of rushing touchdowns. Despite all of the positives to set up Goff, he barely crossed the 300-yard mark without any touchdowns to break the streak. The disappointing finish prompted a deeper look into the Rams’ offense and what we can expect out of Goff over the next few weeks.
Advice Moving Forward:
Goff is a QB2 that shouldn’t be viewed as a must-start unless the matchup is positive. The Rams’ offense is different from 2019. They ended last season 13th in neutral passing and Goff attempted a career-high 626 attempts. His current pace of 35.7 attempts per game has him more in line with his 2018 totals than 2019, but his touchdown rate (4.0%) is woefully below average. In addition, Los Angeles isn’t much of a passing offense once they get into the red zone. Goff in 2019 attempted a pass from within the 20-yard line on 49.0% of their offensive plays. This season, that same rate has dropped 40.9%. Last week’s results (37 attempts, 302 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns) aren’t a bug. They’re a feature of the offense in 2020. In addition, they’ve lost their star LT Andrew Whitworth which will cause problems for Los Angeles’ passing game. Few quarterbacks have as disastrous splits when under pressure than Jared Goff. He’s averaged 0.4 EPA per Play without pressure and -0.7 EPA per Play when under duress. Goff’s next three opponents include Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Arizona. All three are in the top half of the league in pressure rate which will be a key issue for the Rams’ offense as they approach each game. Since Goff doesn’t add much value on the ground, fantasy managers should consider other options out on the waiver wire especially this close to the fantasy playoffs.
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