A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
James Conner, Pittsburgh
James Brimacombe: The Steelers offense was a mess last season as they were playing with second and third-string quarterbacks and the rest of the offense just never could take off because of it. Conner missed six games in 2019 and still collected 725 total yards and seven touchdowns and finished the RB33. With the hopes of Ben Roethlisberger back to full health, the Steelers offense as a whole will see a big increase, and hopefully, Conner can see his numbers like the 2018 season where he finished as RB6 with 1470 total yards and 13 touchdowns in 13 games.
Andrew Davenport: When taking a chance on a player like Conner the key is whether or not the risk is baked into his ADP. That appears to be the case for Conner this year. After a breakout 2018 ended in injury, and 2019 was beset with issues as well, it's fair to wonder whether Conner can hold up as a workhorse running back. But all the positive signs are there that Conner is in a great spot to produce this upcoming season assuming he can stay on the field. He has a very good offensive line, the coaching staff has recommitted to him as the guy they want to feed, and the Steelers also possess a very good defense. Not to mention they return their starting quarterback to give the whole offense a boost. Just one year ago Conner was flirting with first-round ADP. Now he can be had much, much later with the same upside. Sure there is a risk, but his ADP has that factored in and that makes Conner a valuable play.
Jeff Haseley: Last year James Conner was the 9th ranked fantasy running back in PPR scoring through Week 8. He suffered a shoulder injury and later a quad injury which limited his usage for the rest of the season. Conner is expected to be the Steelers' primary rusher in 2020, and his skill set allows him to be a three-down back. This is a contract year for him and Pittsburgh may elect not to re-sign him after the season. As a result, the Steelers could utilize him without the repercussions of having an overworked running back the following year. The return of Ben Roethlisberger should give the offense a boost. Through a microscope, Conner has 50+ reception potential with double-digit touchdowns. His competition includes Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell, and rookie Antonio McFarland. It's no guarantee that Samuels and Snell will both be on the team in Week 1.
Bob Henry: Initially, I had Conner ranked lower out of worries that the Steeler backfield is one that will likely be shared and has more talented depth than in prior seasons. I have changed my viewpoint, though, after Head Coach Mike Tomlin reaffirmed his desire to feature Conner. Last year was an anomaly all around for the Steelers offense. Without Ben Roethlisberger, the entire offense contracted into a shell of itself. With Ben behind center, it’s a rising tide that lifts all boats. Not only does target quality improve in the passing game, but the overall scripts, pace, and scoring opportunities do, too. Conner has been featured before and Tomlin’s history suggests that we should expect about 13-to-15 carries and around 4 receptions per game. He’s being drafted as a mid-RB2 and the valuation difference isn’t as great as with David Johnson, but the return is likely similar to a fringe RB1 if he stays healthy.
Matt Waldman: The Steelers have a top-tier offensive line. Last year it had to play with reserve-caliber, skill talent. This year, those veteran skill players will be back in the lineup and it will make a huge difference. Conner suffered shoulder and quadriceps injuries that limited his workload, and he lacked a viable NFL quarterback in the lineup for all but two games of the year. Look at the Steelers yards per attempt numbers in the 2019 passing game and it's clear that opponents weren't afraid of the Steelers passing game, which meant it could focus more on attacking the run. With a quarterback who can attempt deeper passes and keep opposing defenses from crowding the box, Conner will have bigger rushing lanes. Mike Tomlin dispelled notions that Conner would see a significant cut in touches, telling the media that Conner will be the featured back.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
David Montgomery, Chicago
James Brimacombe: There were big hopes for the Bears entering the 2019 season and it was supposed to all start with their rookie running back David Montgomery. The offense struggled and Montgomery suffered because of it as he finished as RB21 recording 889 rushing yards, six touchdowns, 25 receptions, 185 receiving yards, and another touchdown. Montgomery is taking a hit during drafts this year because of what the Bears lacked last year but entering his second season there is upside on a turnaround season at his current cost.
Jeff Haseley: Last season, David Montgomery was given 242 carries and was the clear contributor in the Bears running game. Chicago did not make any moves to alter that expectation for the 2020 season, so the volume will be there for Montgomery again, this time with a year of experience under his belt. He scored seven touchdowns as a rookie in a year that was considered a disappointment compared to expectations. His fantasy value comes into play if he is still on the board after 26-28 running backs have been selected. At that point, he is a value with 7+ touchdown and 250+ carry potential that you could roster as your RB3 or even your RB4.
Andy Hicks: The bad news is that David Montgomery looked like an average back at times in 2019. There is plenty of good news we can look to though for 2020. First of all, Chicago didn’t add any player of note to challenge for touches. Secondly NFL history is littered with Hall of Fame running backs who started similarly to Montgomery that make the leap in their second season. Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson to name two. Le’Veon Bell had very similar rushing stats to Montgomery in his first season as well. Thirdly Chicago ran the ball often inside the five last year with Montgomery but just couldn’t convert that into touchdowns. Continuity on the line and improvement from the second-year back should see that skyrocket. He isn’t being drafted as a starter and should easily be an RB2 with average luck and improvement.
Justin Howe: Montgomery's ADP is depressed because he's not a flashy option; he's typically hanging around with the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Derrius Guice. The perception is that Montgomery doesn't boast that kind of upside after a plodding, inefficient rookie year (3.7 yards per carry and just 25 receptions). But those chasing RB2s in this range should be hunting volume, not wild efficiency. Montgomery projects to sniff 275+ touches, which is more valuable to drafters than the hopes Guice is able to break off touchdowns. Montgomery is the clear-cut workhorse in Chicago at the moment, with just Ryan Nall of note behind him and Tarik Cohen mostly relegated to the passing game. He projects as a mid-level second running back on his floor alone, and he's still just a year removed from an RB21 rookie season. Any uptick as a receiver would probably vault him into a top-20 back - as would a step forward as a short-yardage runner. Montgomery took 23 rushes from inside the 10 last year but scored on just 10 of them. That's ripe for positive regression; a 10-touchdown season wouldn't be a shock with this kind of opportunity.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Matt Breida, Miami
James Brimacombe: Breida has been a nice back in San Fransisco in his three years in the league. He has always been in a timeshare with the 49ers but when given the touches he has produced and has finished as the RB45, RB24, and RB43 during those three seasons and has averaged 5.0 yards per carry and found the endzone 10 times in 42 total games. Now with his transition the Dolphins, Breida has a new opportunity to battle it out with Jordan Howard as the number one back in Miami. Breida brings some passing down skills that could help him find the field more over Howard, and the Dolphins, in general, look like a team on the rise.
Jordan McNamara: Matt Breida battled through an ankle injury in 2018 to finish as RB26. The 2019 season failed to build on his momentum as he ended up in the doghouse where he watched Raheem Mostert breakout. He was traded to Miami to get a fresh start on draft weekend in 2020. Jordan Howard is a veteran option in the backfield, but Breida is the more dynamic option. While some project Breida to have a receiving role, he has never caught more than two passes per game in his three-year career, but a schematic could capitalize on his big-play ability. Breida represents a flex play with lead back potential if Jordan Howard is injured.
Jason Wood: One of the best ways to reap value is to acquire deeply discounts assets on teams that have been terrible but are on the precipice of a turnaround. It would have been laughable to invest in the Rams before Sean McVay took over, or the 49ers based on what we saw from Kyle Shanahan initially. But when things click, trash can turn into treasure. Matt Breida is by no means guaranteed success, but you're getting him essentially for free yet he has the pedigree, talent, and opportunity to be a star. A lot has to go right, which is why the late-round cost is essential. But with Tua Tagovailoa aboard, a new offensive coordinator with an accomplished NFL resume, and an offensive line with three young, talented new starters, Miami could surprise. Breida is only 24 years old, has never averaged less than 4.4 yards per rush, is a fluid receiver, and a committed inside runner. All he needs do, and it's a question, is stay healthy.
Derrius Guice, Washington
Phil Alexander: What little we finally saw of Guice last season confirmed the talent and elusiveness he showed at LSU hasn't gone anywhere. Unfortunately, Guice's (one year late) debut season was interrupted by a stint on IR due to a torn meniscus and ended early due to an MCL sprain. It's anyone's guess if Guice will ever be able to get his knees right, but if this is the year he lucks into a healthy season, he has the makings of a fantasy superstar, even on a lousy team with a seemingly crowded running back depth chart. He's one of the better home run swings you can take in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.
Andrew Davenport: Everyone can see when Guice gets on the field how electric he is. At a certain point, knee issues will rob any running back of their ability to be a difference-maker on the field, but right now he still needs to be treated like that hasn't happened yet. The injury that ended his season in 2019 wasn't a catastrophic one that requires months of rehab. Also, the more he is removed from the major injury suffered as a rookie the stronger he'll become and the less chance of "cascade" injuries popping up. This fall marks 2 years removed from his major reconstruction and this bodes well for his chances. No matter the situation, the price being paid for the talent is certainly worth the risk. He is a fantastic target when the running back situation starts to dry up in drafts.
Chad Parsons: Guice has played only five games in his two-year NFL career due to injuries and missed games. However, Guice has flashed overt upside and talent with his meager collection of touches to-date. While the depth chart has a collection of good enough options, Guice has the blue-chip talent to demand 1A touches. His health being the lone factor of consequence to restrict him from RB2 or better fantasy production.
David Johnson, Houston
Phil Alexander: Johnson represents one of the more interesting dichotomies in fantasy football this year. In his favor -- he should command all the touches he can handle after being the centerpiece of Houston's "haul" in the DeAndre Hopkins trade. Under head coach Bill O'Brien, Houston has produced a top-10 rushing offense in four-out-of-six seasons. But on the other hand, Johnson moved like he was made of Styrofoam in 2019. And even if he's over his injuries, O'Brien's misuse of Duke Johnson Jr as a weapon in space leaves little optimism he'll use Johnson on anything but the halfback dives Carlos Hyde leaves behind. We've seen Johnson in that role before (under Mike McCoy in 2018) and it did not end well. Ultimately, opportunity wins out in fantasy football and Johnson is one of a small handful of running backs who could realistically clear 300 total touches.
Bob Henry: Johnson is one of my favorite reclamation projects of the 2020 draft season. The last visions we have of Johnson mentally are hard to forget, but we have to remember he was coming off an injury and, prior to that, he was performing well as an RB1 across all scoring platforms. Bill O’Brien gave up some serious capital to acquire him. As the GM/Head Coach, O’Brien is highly motivated to give Johnson every opportunity to rebound and prove he’s still a capable three-down back and a central figure of the Texans offense. I am convinced the touches and targets will be there. It really comes down to Johnson and whether his skills and health have diminished, or last year was a harbinger of things to come. I firmly believe his skills are fine and he absolutely has another solid RB1 season or two left in his tank.
Andy Hicks: David Johnson had trouble fitting in under Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona. Houston saw a franchise back worth chasing and in one of the more ludicrous trades of recent memory he ends up as the engine room for the offense in Houston. Bill O’Brien will want this trade to work so it would be wise to expect Johnson to be used heavily in all facets of the offense. There are very few three-down backs in the NFL right now and one like Johnson at his best is an RB1 if he plays 16 games. He has proven to be an elite fantasy producer in the past for a coach that wants to use him and while he is a risk, he could easily be worth the investment.
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco
David Dodds: On a team that loves to run the ball, Mostert tops the 49ers depth chart at running back. He has improved each of the last three years and exploded against the Packers in the Divisional playoff game. The team moved on from Matt Breida lessening the logjam he fought through in 2019 to get to the RB1 role. It's his job to lose and he is being drafted at a deep discount to his considerable upside.
Jeff Haseley: Last year marked the first time in five seasons that Raheem Mostert cracked 130 carries in a season. He always had the talent and the drive to be a reliable, productive back, however, the opportunity to consistently thrive was never there, until Kyle Shanahan put him into the spotlight in Week 13. Mostert's carries jumped and the results followed. He finished as the 9th ranked PPR running back from Weeks 13-17, scoring seven touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry behind one of the better offensive lines in football. Mostert is the front-runner to be the 49ers primary ball carrier heading into 2020 and expectations should not be any different from the back half of 2019.
Jason Wood: Raheem Mostert's 2019 heroics are what fantasy football is all about. A 27-year old journeyman who had barely seen the field outside of some special teams units was thrust into the center of Kyle Shanahan's dynamic rushing attack and turned into the 49ers key offensive touchstone over the second half of the season, and into the playoffs. Mostert averaged 27% of the 49ers offensive snaps until Week 12; when he played 74% of the plays against the Ravens. From Week 12 through the Super Bowl, Mostert played 58% of the snaps; which is in-line with most workhorse backs throughout the league. In those eight games, he was on pace for 234 carries for 1,430 rushing yards (6.1 per carry), 18 catches for 154 yards, and 24 touchdowns. With Matt Breida traded to Miami, and the 49ers notably quiet in the draft, Mostert enters the preseason as the favorite for the No. 1 role. We saw nothing last year to suggest he's not up for the challenge, and Shanahan has a long history of featuring a primary runner versus messing around with a fantasy-unfriendly committee.
Latavius Murray, New Orleans
Jordan McNamara: Latavius Murray was the RB1 in weeks 7 and 8 last year when Alvin Kamara was out of the lineup, and his 0.55 wins over replacement player (WORP) in that span, a better pace than Christian McCaffrey had last season, demonstrates the value of one injury away running backs in good offenses. With little change on the Saints, I expect Murray to offer the same league changing upside if Kamara misses extended time during the season while offering a flex option for your lineup when Kamara is healthy.
Chad Parsons: Murray was the No. 1 overall running back during Alvin Kamara's brief stint out of the lineup in 2019. On a super-charged offense with all noteworthy pieces returning, plus Emmanuel Sanders added, Murray is one of the preemptive backup running backs to benefit most from any missed time to their respective starter.
Jeff Pasquino: While the Saints have Alvin Kamara as their primary back, New Orleans shares the workload with their second option to keep both players fresh. This used to be Mark Ingram, but Latavius Murray took over that role last year, posting respectable numbers (872 total yards, six touchdowns). Murray gets roughly 10-15 touches per game including a few shots at the end zone in goal-line situations, making him a flex option at tailback most weeks. Murray's value would skyrocket if Kamara misses any time, as the veteran and former starter can easily step in for a full workload.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay
Andy Hicks: The Packers are giving every indication of not paying Aaron Jones beyond this year. The phenomenal season by Jones last year is a likely blip, but Jones and his agent will believe he is due a big payday. Picking A.J. Dillon in the second round allows Green Bay to ease the rookie in depending on his acclimation to the system. Dillon is a big back but has the speed to threaten any defense. It is unlikely that we see much of Dillon early so if you can stash him away do so. By seasons end he should be pressing his claims to be the 2021 starter and the team will need to see him in real action.
Jason Wood: A.J. Dillon was a collegiate workhorse for Boston College. He ran for 4,382 yards and 38 touchdowns in three seasons. What's most impressive is Dillon's ability to produce in spite of opposing ACC defenses being able to key on him knowing the Boston College passing attack was subpar. Dillon is a powerful back well-suited for Matt LaFleur's scheme. Although he's not guaranteed playing time this season with incumbents Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, there's no reason to think he can't earn a role with a strong preseason; overtaking Williams as the No. 2 should be a given. While Jones was an elite fantasy back last year, we know how often No. 1s miss time because of injuries, and Dillon has the kind of talent and focus to not only thrive if given the opportunity but to play so well he keeps the job.
Jordan Howard, Miami
Andrew Davenport: The fact that Howard isn't getting more attention is one of the more surprising things thus far into the summer. Understandably, fantasy players are feeling cautious about the Miami offense, and Howard's tendency to get dinged up is documented. But he was signed to a relatively rich deal as far as free agent running backs go, and while the Dolphins brought in Matt Breida, he is far from an ironman either. Additionally, this has the look of a committee where Howard will see plenty of touches and could approach 8-10 touchdowns if things line up right. Sure he isn't super exciting, but his ADP is way too low for what he could bring to the table. Miami has done a remarkable job remaking this roster and if/when they turn to rookie Tua Tagovailoa they will likely be leaning heavily on their two backs to move the ball. Howard is a screaming value at his current ADP.
Jeff Pasquino: Jordan Howard signed a two-year $10M+ contract to join Miami as their lead tailback, but there are several reasons to be cautious. Howard is on his third team (Chicago, Philadelphia) is coming off of an injury (shoulder) that cost him nearly half last season, and now he is joining a Dolphins team that is expected to be below average on offense. If that was not enough reason to be concerned about Howard, Miami traded for Matt Breida to split time in the backfield, especially on passing downs. The good news is this Howard is well outside the Top 32 running backs, offering strong value if he takes a clear first position on the depth chart.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland
Sigmund Bloom: It’s easy to forget that Hunt was a consistent RB2 in PPR leagues when he returned from his suspension last year. This year, he’ll be in an offense that accentuates the value of running backs. The Browns invested in two plug-and-play tackles (free agent Jack Conklin and #10 pick Jedrick Wills from Alabama) to greatly improve an already strong running game. Kevin Stefanski’s offense produced 98 running back receptions last year, which should help keep Hunt’s weekly floor high in PPR leagues.
Chad Parsons: Hunt played half of the season, while a healthy and productive Nick Chubb, and was still a fringe RB2 on a per-game basis and saw 44 targets. Hunt is arguably the highest upside injury-away running back in all of fantasy football and has the benefit of being RB2 or flex viable even without an injury to Nick Chubb. Hunt has no question about his ability to shoulder a workload or produce to a high level either with multiple RB1 seasons in his profile from Kansas City.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit
Bob Henry: Here’s another situation where the consensus ADP may be either too bullish on a rookie or just undervaluing the incumbent veteran. For sure, Johnson needs to find a way to stay on the field, but when he’s been healthy there is no question he has been up to the task as a runner or receiver. Johnson is explosive and capable of doing the dirty work between the tackles to wear down a defense. There is no doubt that D’Andre Swift is a legitimate threat and a very talented back in his own right, but if the Lions offense plays up to its potential, and Matthew Stafford can stay on the field, there should be plenty of touches and scoring opportunities for both players to return value. The Lions had the longest streak in the NFL without a 100-yard rushing game by a running back until Johnson joined the team and eclipsed the century mark three times despite playing in only 18 games.
Andy Hicks: Detroit seems to be on a never-ending quest to find their first franchise running back since Barry Sanders retired. Countless backs have been drafted high, tried, and for one reason or another failed. With the Lions drafting D’Andre Swift in the second round it appears as though the 2018 second-rounder Kerryon Johnson is on the scrapheap. Two injury-riddled seasons for Johnson have made the team look elsewhere. Problem is Johnson has looked the part and will get first shot this year. If and it’s a big if, he stays healthy he will be hard to displace. He is one of those high upside, low downside players that are sometimes hard to draft, but when they pay off they can win leagues.
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay
David Dodds: Jones has mostly been a disappointment in his two seasons in the NFL, but we saw a glimpse that he was putting things together to close out 2019. In weeks 16 and 17, he finished with 183 rushing yards on just 25 carries and added 42 yards on 5 receptions. The Bucs added a runner (Ke'shawn Vaughn in the third round) but moved on from Payton Barber cementing Jones' role atop the depth chart to start the season. The additions of Tom Brady (who has made a career checking down to the running back), TE Rob Gronkowski (elite run game blocker), and the team announcing it would utilize double tight ends as their base formation all bode well for Ronald Jones II having his best season in 2020.
Bob Henry: Perhaps I’m misreading the Buccaneers backfield, but I just don’t buy into rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn displacing Ronald Jones II – definitely not out of the gate in a year where the offseason is limited at best and especially in an offense that may take Vaughn time to settle into, earn Head Coach Bruce Arians’ trust and where protection will be a premium for Tom Brady. Jones performed well down the stretch and I believe it’s more likely for Jones to erupt as the Bucs offense does with improved weapons like Brady and Gronkowski as it is for him to fold and be surpassed by the rookie. Jones is more explosive, has more experience in the offense and don’t forget he also caught 23 balls in the second half of last season. The risk isn’t egregious either. Draft him as an RB3 or RB4 and enjoy the upside.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota
Chad Parsons: Seeking high-variance outcomes is optimal for achieving league-changing results. Mattison proved viable as Dalvin Cook's backup as a 2019 rookie. Paired with Mattison's prototypical frame and two-way production collegiate background, he is poised to take full advantage of any Dalvin Cook paved opportunity for the lead role whether off-field, injury, or an already-proclaimed holdout spilling over into the season. Mattison can replicate a heavy majority of Cook's production in his absence and be a league-changing producer with a fraction of the investment.
Jason Wood: The new collective bargaining agreement makes holding out a more onerous proposition, and we've yet to see veterans follow through on their contract-related holdout threats. Yet, Dalvin Cook is unhappy with his deal and is, at least for now, suggesting he may miss time if they can't come to terms on a long-term extension. The Vikings certainly could reward Cook, but given the talented back's horrific injury history, paying Cook $10+ million per season seems ill-fated. Given Cook's holdout threats and injury risks, and the Vikings' proven commitment to the run game, drafting the team's No. 2 is a savvy move. Mattison is more than capable if given a full-time role. Amid a sea of NFL No. 2 runners, Mattison should be on at or near the top of your draft priorities.
Damien Williams, Kansas City
Sigmund Bloom: The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes II love first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Williams has earned trust in key game situations and he is definitely a more advanced pass blocker than the rookie. Even if the split favors Edwards-Helaire, if Williams can retain the majority of goal-line looks, where he is highly efficient, he’ll easily be a weekly flex play and if Edwards-Helaire isn’t ready for prime time, Williams will flirt with RB1 value for as long as he stays healthy.
Jeff Pasquino: Damien Williams returns for the Chiefs as the starting tailback, but Kansas City and Andy Reid tend to go with the hot hand and a committee approach. While Williams was the top rusher for the Chiefs last year, he only had 111 regular season carries for 498 yards - a strong 4.5 yard per carry average - with five scores plus additional value as a receiver (30-213-2). The issue this season will be holding off rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the last pick in the first round of the April NFL Draft. Edwards-Helaire has drawn comparisons to Brian Westbrook by none other than Reid himself, and both were big parts of their success in Philadelphia. Given that Edwards-Helaire is the “shiny new toy”, he is being drafted ahead of Williams, making the veteran - who may still be the lead back - a clear value.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Chris Carson, Seattle
Jeff Pasquino: Seattle is proclaimed as a run-first offense, but in truth, it is a balanced attack that features both the run game and a strong passing offense with Russell Wilson. Both complement one another, affording opportunities for Wilson and Chris Carson as the lead back in the Seattle backfield. Carson is in a contract year and is coming off of a fractured hip, but all reports have him ready to go for Week 1. Carson will be pushing to perform well once again in 2020 as he plays for a major contract to be signed next off-season, making him a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.
Tarik Cohen, Chicago
David Dodds: Last season was a step-back for Cohen who finished with fewer yards and fewer touchdowns. But despite this, Cohen has still logged 150 catches and 11 touchdowns over the last two seasons. He has skills in open space and the Bears don't have enough playmakers to think his role will be much different in 2020. This is a buy-low situation that could reap huge rewards should Cohen bounce back to his 2018 form.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore
Sigmund Bloom: Dobbins is a simple case of taking great talents in great offenses and letting the chips fall where they may. He should be able to take runs to the house that were only 10-20 yards in the hands of Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. Dobbins can be a matchup RB2/flex with only 8-12 touches a week in this offense, but if he proves to be a better chunk-play threat than Ingram and Edwards right away, Dobbins' workload will increase as the season progresses.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas
Sigmund Bloom: Elliott should be the shoo-in No. 3 pick behind Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. He will be the finisher for one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league and could easily set a career-high in touchdowns. While his receiving totals won’t approach Christian McCaffrey’s, they did level off at 54 last year and his efficiency should go up as defenses have to go lighter in the box to defend maybe the best wide receiver trio in the league.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville
Jordan McNamara: Leonard Fournette is continuously underrated. Posting 100 targets and 76 receptions in 2019, Fournette answered major questions about his game. Add in the fact he was healthy and on his best behavior, Fournette finished as RB7 on only three touchdowns. Jacksonville did nothing to change the backfield, so Fournette projects as a high volume running back in the final year of his rookie deal. With continued use in the passing game and some positive touchdown regression after only three in 2019, Fournette has top-five upside in 2020.
Melvin Gordon, Denver
Sigmund Bloom: Gordon’s role shouldn’t be much different than it was with the Chargers over the last two years, but he is being drafted as if he’ll be in a worse RBBC split than he was with Austin Ekeler in Los Angeles. This is impossible as Phillip Lindsay isn’t nearly as good as Ekeler in the passing game. Gordon should get his number called at the goal line and ring up north of 50 receptions if he can stay healthy.
Todd Gurley, Atlanta
Phil Alexander: Gurley has little competition for touches, near double-digit touchdown expectation as part of Atlanta's offense, and should see a fair amount of targets. The dominant back we saw in 2017 and 2018 is probably a memory at this point, but at least Gurley has a clear path to touches, a favorable offense, and is playing on a one-year deal (so the Falcons won't be afraid to ride him until the wheels fall off and Gurley is motivated to earn his next long-term contract).
Mark Ingram, Baltimore
Jeff Pasquino: The Ravens are a run-first team, and Ingram will be the top running back. As seen last year, there is plenty of production to go around between Ingram and QB Lamar Jackson, along with rookie J.K. Dobbins. Ingram has been a Top 15 running back in five of the last six seasons, including last year (RB8). Owning the top rusher on the top rushing team sounds like a great idea, and his value is hard to beat.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas
Matt Waldman: The Raiders have a top-tier offensive line. This is a big and strong line that has improved massively during Jon Gruden's tenure. Jacobs, who averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 13 games as a rookie, should come close to that mark once again behind this offensive line and the surrounding skill talent that should keep running lanes open a little longer--especially with Jason Witten as a run-blocking tight end. The untapped production left in Jacobs' game is his receiving ability. He only earned 28 targets last year, catching 20 for 166 yards. Known as an excellent receiver at Alabama, Jacobs should have a better understanding of protections and routes that will keep him on the field more often and increase his target totals in 2020.
Sony Michel, New England
Andy Hicks: It is easy to fall into the trap of assuming the Patriots are running back by committee. If we look at the game by game breakdown last year we can see that there were only two instances of a non-Sony Michel running back registering 10 or more carries. Michel had 11 games with at least 15 carries. Indeed, he was not part of the game plan more often than you would like, but when he was it was all him. With a clear drop in quality at quarterback expect the ball to be run often and Michel to be the dominant ball carrier. Good luck finding a running back available when Michel is that will touch the ball that much. Bill Belichick trusts him with the ball. He may not have the highest upside, but he should outperform his draft slot significantly.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati
Phil Alexander: Mixon is the cutoff line for running backs that should be drafted ahead of any wide receiver in Round 1 of redraft leagues. The Bengals offense was one of the worst in the league last year, yet Mixon was still the second-leading rusher in the NFL over the second half of the season. He'll return to a barely recognizable offense (in a good way) that gets back A.J. Green, stud offensive tackle, Jonah Williams (who missed his entire rookie year), and added a franchise quarterback and dynamic wide receiver in the draft. Cincinnati played at the seventh-fastest situation-neutral pace of play in their first year under head coach, Zac Taylor, and now have the offensive firepower to turn more of those plays into fantasy points. Increased efficiency and a greater touchdown expectation will launch Mixon into the top tier of running backs by season's end.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo
Justin Howe: Singletary has been brushed off a good bit this offseason, and the reasoning does make sense. The 5-foot-7, 203-pound Singletary was managed as a rookie, and the team added Zack Moss, a versatile power option, in the draft; he'll almost certainly play a role. Still, Singletary looked so dynamic down the 2019 stretch that it's hard to see the Bills veering the ship much. From Weeks 9-16 (he sat out the finale ), Singletary turned 18.9 touches a game (a 68% share among team RBs) into 92.4 yards. And his per-touch efficiency as a rookie (5.4 yards a pop) was top-notch. Moss is a solid prospect, but his presence here looks like little more than depth. The Bills didn't invest a premium pick in the position, and their 2019 runners took on 401 touches - a plenty-big pie to feed a clear-cut starter. Singletary's big-time rookie efficiency may waver but should be able to turn 250+ touches into a top-15 season.
