The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams
Phil Alexander: The Rams played in 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back, three receivers) almost 80% of the time during the first 10 weeks of last season. From Weeks 11 to 17, that number dropped to 58% in favor of more two-tight-end sets. Not by coincidence, Kupp's target volume dropped from 10.1 per game in Weeks 1-10 down to 6.6 per game in Weeks 11-17. LA's offseason moves -- jettisoning Brandin Cooks and drafting tight end Brycen Hopkins in Round 4 -- suggest more 12 personnel formations are here to stay. Kupp becomes more of a touchdown-dependent fantasy option now that he'll be sharing more with Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. If you're eager to invest in a Rams wide receiver, wait a couple of rounds and enjoy similar production from Robert Woods.
Sigmund Bloom: The Rams offense used a lot more two-tight end sets in the second half of the year than the first, a trend we can’t ignore when gauging Kupp’s value in fantasy drafts because that took Kupp off of the field more often. His yardage dropped from 793 to 369 in the second half of the year and his targets went from 87 to 47. Kupp’s 2020 numbers should be better than just doubling his poor second half output, but they won’t be high enough to justify his ADP.
Jordan McNamara: The Rams changed offensive schemes near the end of the season with a move away from the 3WR sets that were a hallmark of Sean McVay’s offense. This move helped create the breakout of Tyler Higbee but led to a reduction in Cooper Kupp’s snap share as Kupp’s three lowest snap shares came in the final four weeks of the season. Kupp is a favorite of Jared Goff, and without Brandin Cooks, there is an opportunity to play on the perimeter, but Kupp played over two-thirds of his snaps in the slot last year. If the offense is going to play less three-wide receiver sets, Kupp needs to be more effective as a perimeter wide receiver or his fantasy prospects will suffer. At his cost, Kupp’s uncertainty is a major question mark.
Matt Waldman: Kupp is one of my favorite receivers in the league, but he's in an offense that will do more work from sets with two tight ends. Although Kupp has excellent skills against press coverage and the initial burst and change of direction suddenness to compete with starting cornerbacks, he's not going to consistently beat the top primary cover corners in the league as an outside receiver. Because he's dominant in the slot but he'll be asked to do more work as an outside receiver, expect lower reception and yardage totals from Kupp in the Rams' offense. Kupp remains the best red-zone target that Jared Goff has so expect Kupp to lead the team in touchdowns but no longer top the club in every receiving category.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
D.J. Moore, Carolina
Andy Hicks: One thing you hate to see with your high draft pick is the massive change at the coaching and quarterback position. D.J. Moore has both of these to contend with entering 2020. Sure it can be argued that these are positive events given who started at quarterback for the Panthers last year, but time and again we see situations where a new coaching group ruins fantasy manager's plans. Another concern for those expecting WR1 production from Moore is his lack of touchdown numbers. Despite 87 receptions and 1175 yards, he still only barely ranked as a WR2 last year. Sure we can talk unicorns and rainbows about Joe Brady’s offense and how Moore will benefit, but it might be best we see the results first.
Matt Waldman: The pervading theme with all of my overvalued picks is that I have deep admiration for each individual's games, but the hobby's valuation of them is too high for their schemes. Moore excels in the middle of the field and short perimeter passes because he runs crisp routes and transitions with suddenness and power into the open field. His tape displayed notable improvement with perimeter targets, especially winning the ball against tight coverage--and doing so with a backup-caliber passer. While Moore is a great fit with Teddy Bridgewater in Joe Brady's offense as a target in the short and intermediate ranges of the field, Bridgewater's vertical game accuracy has been a consistent weakness. Moore should approach but not reach last year's totals in receptions and yardage. He'll deliver starter production in most fantasy leagues but not at the level that his ADP currently anticipates.
Jason Wood: Moore is being drafted as a No. 1 fantasy receiver, and that leaves no margin for error. He broke out in his second season with 87 catches for 1,175 yards but was targeted 135 times. With a new head coach (Matt Rhule), a new offensive coordinator (Joe Brady) calling plays in the NFL for the first time, a new quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) who has been afraid to throw downfield for most of his career, and a credible new outside receiver in Robby Anderson, Moore has far too much volatility and risk to draft as a cornerstone of your roster.
Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans
James Brimacombe: Sanders played a total of 17 games in 2019 and was a player that people were afraid to draft because of the injury the year before. He outperformed expectations and finished with a respectable 66/869/5 stat line between Denver and San Francisco. My problem with Sanders heading into 2020 is that he is the WR2 in New Orleans opposite of Michael Thomas. The WR2 in New Orleans never seems to take off and drafting Sanders at his cost this season just feels very risky.
Dan Hindery: I am admittedly a bit of an ageist when it comes to drafting wide receivers but it is a strategy that has typically paid off. Sanders, who turned 33-years old in March, is a clear avoid at his current ADP. Expect him to be the fourth wheel in the Saints passing game behind Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Jared Cook. There is no reason to doubt Thomas will again dominate targets. He has caught a ridiculous 83% of his targets over the last two seasons and shows no signs of slowing down. It is going to take time for Brees to develop a rapport with Sanders given the lack of offseason and it is reasonable to expect Brees to lean more heavily on the players he is already comfortable with. Beyond concerns about Sanders’ share of the targets, it also feels like many are overrating the Saints passing offense in general. With a 41-year old quarterback and much-improved defense, this is no longer the air show we remember from Brees’ prime. The Saints have finished between 15th and 20th in pass attempts per game each of the last three seasons.
Justin Howe: Sanders is still a perfectly fine second receiver at 33; he looked spry and explosive in San Francisco last year. Now in an offense that boasts high pace and big touchdown opportunity, he's perfectly capable of producing as a WR3 or better in fantasy. But as rich as this landing spot looks, there's not a ton of volume upside on closer inspection. Michael Thomas, of course, casts a massive shadow with 61% of the team's wide receiver targets over the past 2 years. Beyond him, Alvin Kamara is a virtual lock for 100 looks, and this Saints offense is no longer a threat to throw 650 times, so production beyond them will be spotty. Sanders will need to be extremely efficient on his third roster in nine months, and even then it will be tough to project his big games. Most drafters will be able to find more dynamism elsewhere in this tier, where Sanders is likely to be overdrafted as a Saint.
Courtland Sutton, Denver
Phil Alexander: Outside of Drew Lock's Week 13 debut, in which Sutton caught four-out-of-five targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns, the second-year receiver struggled along with his rookie quarterback despite receiving 11.7 targets per game. While Sutton has the look of a prototype X-receiver, he's not going to command such heavy volume with Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Melvin Gordon added to the mix. Absent massive volume, Sutton is in an uphill battle to live up to last season's WR18 finish, which just about mirrors his current ADP. He's tied to Lock, who averaged a dismal 6.5 yards per pass attempt as a rookie, and despite their improved offensive weapons, the Broncos' strength remains on defense. The possibility exists Sutton emerges as a superstar who can overcome his surroundings. But it's more likely he has no business being drafted ahead of guys like Terry McLaurin, T.Y. Hilton, D.J. Chark, and A.J. Green.
Jeff Haseley: Courtland Sutton flat-out dominated targets for Denver last year totaling 126 compared to the next closest, 66 (Noah Fant). As a result, he finished with 72 receptions for 1,112 yards and 6 touchdowns with a 19th fantasy finish in PPR scoring. The presence and emergence of Jerry Jeudy, whom some believe can be the next best great receiver, should put a damper on Sutton's production. If he finished 19th as the runaway target leader, where does that leave him when he has to share targets? Sutton is a good, capable receiver, but now that he has some strong competition, his numbers may trend downward.
Chad Parsons: Sutton had a promising 2019 season but was still a WR2/3 for fantasy utility. Fast-forward to 2020 and quarterback is a question mark with Drew Lock as a Day 2 draft pick with a mere five games under his belt. Also, Denver addressed the passing game strongly with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler drafted in each of the first two rounds and Noah Fant, also with more pedigree than Sutton, enters Year 2 at tight end. Sutton has minimal upside from last year's finish with plenty of risks considering quarterback play and a more balanced passing game collection of targets.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers
Sigmund Bloom: Allen has been a WR1 and steady producer for our fantasy teams for a long time, but the uncertainty added by a quarterback change from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor (or Justin Herbert) is too much risk to tolerate when he is surrounded by wide receivers with an arrow pointing up in fantasy rankings. He’s also in a crowded pass offense with Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry, and Mike Williams. When you add in the likelihood of low volume, Allen’s outlook is too cloudy to make him part of your picnic.
Jeff Haseley: There is a bit of uncertainty with the Chargers offense. Keenan Allen is one of the best route-runners in the league, but his mainstay, Philip Rivers has moved on to Indianapolis. Will Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert develop the same rapport with Allen? Rivers and Allen relied on each other. They knew each other's tendencies and their relationship became symbiotic in nature. It can take seasons to reach that level of confidence between a quarterback and a receiver, plus adding the lack of cohesion due to COVID-19 - it's a recipe for disappointment. If there's any receiver who can make headway in this challenging period, it's Allen, but the possibility of doubt should be concerning for Allen to meet the same expectations as seasons prior.
Odell Beckham, Cleveland
Justin Howe: Beckham is one of the more volatile names on the draft board; he could land anywhere from WR5 to WR35 and no outcome would be too surprising. He's only a year removed from a shortened 2018 season that would extrapolate to 103 catches, 1,403 yards, and 8 scores. But it's hard to find a realistic path to those numbers, or anything close, here in 2020 Cleveland. Even if Baker Mayfield rebounds from a shaky-at-best sophomore season, and even if Beckham claims another hefty share of targets (he drew 25% last year), he'll likely struggle for weekly consistency. New coach Kevin Stefanski is an avowed run-game believer, and Mayfield may not get the chance to throw more than 525 passes or so. There's still Jarvis Landry vacuuming up slot and manufactured targets, and a pair of pass-catching tight ends, as well as the dynamic Kareem Hunt out of the backfield. We all know of Beckham's ceiling, but few seem to be contemplating his usage floor. It wouldn't be shocking to see him land south of 70 catches, which is simply not going to work for PPR drafters in the early rounds. Beckham looks better suited as an upside play at the tail end of the WR2 run.
Jason Wood: Odell Beckham had another 1,000-yard season; his fifth in six seasons. Yet, he finished 31st among fantasy receivers thanks for just four touchdown catches. It's been a tale of two careers for Beckham. He was one of the most productive pass catchers in NFL history through his first three years and finished WR5, WR5, and WR4. He was on a Hall of Fame trajectory. In the next three seasons, he's finished WR82, WR16, and WR31. Optimists claim Beckham wasn't healthy last year, and believe he's a clean bill of health away from returning to All-Pro form. While that may be true if he wasn't healthy last year, why would we assume he'll ever be healthy? That's three straight years of performance-hampering maladies. Add to that a lack of chemistry with Baker Mayfield, questions about Mayfield's own value, and a new coaching staff with a propensity for a ball-control, ground attack, and Beckham isn't worth drafting as your No. 1.
Marquise Brown, Baltimore
Andrew Davenport: The Ravens started out last season putting up 59 points on the Miami Dolphins in Week 1. Lamar Jackson tossed five touchdowns and Marquise Brown caught two of them for over 30 PPR points in his debut. The problem is, Brown eclipsed 50 yards only two times the rest of the season. Obviously he was battling foot problems the whole year, and he's an exciting player on a very good offense so it's easy to see the argument for a possible breakout in year two. But the problem is that the Ravens are not going to be an offense that throws the ball a lot, and there really needs to be more than a talented player and some excitement to point to a big step. Will Brown take a step forward? He definitely should, especially if he's healthy. But taking him where he's being drafted ignores the complete non-factor he was in fantasy down the stretch last year. Brown is being overdrafted right now ahead of some very good options at wide receiver.
Jeff Pasquino: Rookie Marquise Brown finished as the top wideout for Baltimore in 2019, a solid ending in his rookie campaign. The Ravens are a running team first and foremost, and QB Lamar Jackson tends to look at TE Mark Andrews first on passing downs. That said, Brown has big-play ability and can have an explosive performance any given week. He should continue to grow in his sophomore season and offers solid value as the Ravens' top outside receiver and has strong long term value in a very young offense, but he is best used in either Best Ball or as a spot starter (WR4 / flex) given his “Boom / Bust” type performances.
Amari Cooper, Dallas
Andy Hicks: Amari Cooper had a great year on paper that was rewarded with a huge contract in the off-season. The reality was that his dynamite start to the 2019 season soon spluttered and he finished with an average of fewer than four catches for less than fifty yards a game over his last seven games. With only one touchdown over this timeframe he was easily outperformed by his teammate Michael Gallup. Were it not for two missed games Gallups numbers would have been very similar to his much more credentialed teammate. Moving onto 2020 and the big question is how does the arrival of rookie CeeDee Lamb affect the whole passing game distribution? Is this a Randy Moss situation where one of the 1000 yard receivers from the previous year turn into Jake Reed? I do not doubt that each of the primary receivers will have big games, the question is reliable production. Cooper has consistently been inconsistent in his career to date. The so-called 100 million dollar contract itself was also smoke and mirrors. It is essentially a two-year deal that Dallas can escape from after the 2021 season with relative ease. Cooper will be a nice receiver this year but will be overvalued considerably.
Dan Hindery: Cooper is being drafted 50+ spots ahead of the two other Dallas wide receivers but there is little evidence to indicate Cooper is going to seriously out-produce Michael Gallup or CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys may have the most talented trio of receivers in the NFL and my expectation is each will see a similar share of the targets. In fact, last season Gallup saw more targets per game and had more receiving yards per game than Cooper. Lamb is one of the more talented pass catchers to enter the league in recent years and should have an immediate impact. This looks like an offense with three equally talented receivers. As such, it makes no sense to pay a huge premium for Cooper instead of just drafting Gallup or Lamb much later.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo
Sigmund Bloom: Diggs might be the receiver with the biggest gap between talent and production this year. John Brown and Cole Beasley are still in Buffalo and have an established connection with Josh Allen, while Diggs will have a slow ramp-up with no offseason this year. The Bills offense is going to remain one of the lowest volume passing games in the league, and Allen’s deep accuracy was horrendous last year. If you want a Bills receiver, you’re better off waiting for multiple rounds after Diggs goes off of the board and selecting Brown.
Andrew Davenport: Diggs goes from a Minnesota team that liked to run the ball to a Buffalo team that...likes to run the ball. The easiest problem to spot is that his situation was at best a lateral move, and now he has to learn a new offense and get comfortable with a new quarterback. The track record of receivers switching teams is not a good one and is usually accompanied by a dip in production. But even worse, Diggs goes from an accurate highly competent quarterback to an inaccurate quarterback who struggles in the passing game at times. The one redeeming quality to Josh Allen throwing the ball in Buffalo is that he does like to push the ball down the field more than Kirk Cousins did last year. But the issue for fantasy is simply not attractive. He's being drafted right around where he finished last season as a PPR wide receiver. Now he's switching teams, going to a less accurate quarterback, in a poor offensive division, with a tough Bills defense behind him, and another very good wide receiver who had 1,000 yards last year. That is far too many red flags for Diggs to be taken at his current ADP.
Will Fuller, Houston
Andy Hicks: Fifth-year lucky is the game you need to play with Will Fuller this year. Missing 22 games in four years, multiple different injuries and inconsistent play all point to a lottery draft pick if you plan on selecting Fuller this year. He averages two one hundred yard games a year and half of his career touchdowns come in these games. Outweighing these games are six one reception games and 10 with two receptions. Sure it’s nice to play him when he has 14 receptions, 217 yards, and three touchdowns, but realistically you are more likely to see two receptions for 15 yards or not have him available. He is worth a late pick in best ball drafts where you don’t need to take the bad with the good. In all other formats, you are playing with fire.
Jason Wood: Can we stop trying to make Will Fuller a thing? In four seasons, he's ranked WR63, WR48, WR64, and WR53. He's missed 22 games in four years and has been a fixture on the injury report otherwise. He's also a boom-or-bust player contingent on tracking down a few deep throws. When the connection hits, he can put up a big week. But far too often the game script doesn't play to Fuller's strengths. The Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins away, but it's a mistake to think that vaults Fuller's role. His role is defined and capped by his injuries and limited route tree. Brandin Cooks will be the new No. 1, and the trio of Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, and Keke Coutee are all as likely to be featured based on defensive matchups.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis
Andy Hicks: The Indianapolis Colts are planning to move on from T.Y. Hilton by drafting Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jrwith high picks in the last two years. Hilton has been a reliable and unexpected WR1 for the team but last year was a warning sign that those days are over. He turned 30 last year and by an amazing coincidence, his production dropped significantly. 15 receptions for 195 yards and zero touchdowns in his last five games is a worrying sign for his future. He is also in the last year of a very expensive contract and although the Colts have salary cap space, his almost $15 million pay packet comes with no dead cap hit. His draft price comes with little upside and a heck of a downside. Look for better upside players instead.
Justin Howe: It's not particularly wise to bet against Hilton, who's just a year removed from a fantastic WR13 season. He's long been an elite downfield weapon, and an efficient one, too, posting a studly 9.5 yards per target from 2014-18. But it's also not wise to pay top-20 prices for a declining veteran - Hilton crossed the 30-year-old barrier last season - in a transitioning offense. That's especially true of one who's never shown any big upside in terms of volume or touchdown opportunity. With Hilton, you're buying in on mega-efficiency and a more explosive Colts offense. But there are a number of similar talents in this ADP class, ones with comparable upsides but even better volume floors.
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona
Chad Parsons: Hopkins has dominated targets and been attached to an already-elite quarterback in Houston. Still priced at a sky-high level for 2020, Hopkins has far more risk than previous years. Kyler Murray may be an elite quarterback, but it is a variable after his promising 2019. The competition for targets is higher than in Houston with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk more sturdy options than the ancillary pieces with the Texans. There are thin margins in the elite receiver tier and Hopkins is worth fading at his cost in 2020 drafts.
Matt Waldman: The Cardinals Air Raid Offense spreads the field with four and five receivers and there will be enough target distribution among 3-4 receivers. Expecting Hopkins to earn 1,300-1,500 yards as he did for several years in Houston is less likely than in the past. Kyler Murray has promise and should improve his production as a second-year passer, but expecting significantly more than 4,000 passing yards is unrealistic. The Cardinals had little problem moving up and down the field in 2019, but couldn't convert in the red zone. The underlying reasons included Murray and coach Kliff Kingsbury were rookies and the offensive line wasn't healthy. While we should see touchdown totals improve as Murray and Kingsbury gain experience, the offensive line is a bigger fact and the unit hasn't changed. Expect starter but not elite totals from Hopkins this year.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
Jeff Pasquino: Dallas is perfectly comfortable with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup as their starting wide receivers, but Lamb's talent was too good to pass on when he was available for Dallas' first-round pick in April. Lamb will be able to start slower and learn the NFL game and the higher level, playing mostly on passing-only downs as the third receiver for the Cowboys. Dallas may de-emphasize the tight end position with Jason Witten now in Oakland, which could have Lamb on the field more in three wideout formations. Lamb has great long term value as he learns from Cooper and with Dak Prescott nearing a long term deal as the starter for years to come, but given that he will be third on the depth chart this season, temper expectations for his rookie campaign.
Jason Wood: Lamb may be the most pro-ready receiver in a stellar rookie class and has the skills to become a Pro Bowl-caliber player for years to come. But redraft leagues need to discount Lamb because he landed in a suboptimal situation in Dallas, where he has to overtake not one, but two excellent young receivers in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Lamb has the talent to force himself into the lineup, but the opportunity is hindered by the current Covid-19 pandemic. It will be much harder for rookies to break into significant roles due to a lack of time with coaches and teammates.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Julian Edelman, New England
Sigmund Bloom: The days of Edelman being a WR1 for fantasy ended when Tom Brady signed in Tampa Bay. How far will he fall? That depends on how ready Jarrett Stidham is to be an NFL starting quarterback and how much of the Brady to Edelman connection was the chemistry between the two versus the design of the passing game. You’re better off not depending on parts of the Patriots offense this year.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay
Phil Alexander: Bruce Arians' offense will always skew pass-heavy and include a vertical element, but it's hard to imagine Evans commanding his usual target volume in 2020. Tom Brady's ability to take care of the ball all but guarantees fewer possessions and pass-heavy game scripts than we've seen in recent seasons with Jameis Winston behind center for Tampa Bay. And while Brady posted a respectable 102 passer rating on deep attempts last year, he's better suited to getting the ball out quickly to his short and intermediate targets at this stage of his career. Evans remains dominant enough to post a handful of matchup-winning performances, but guessing which week they're coming won't be enjoyable. There are better values out there, particularly at running back, in the same range you'll need to invest a pick to get Evans.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit
Jordan McNamara: Kenny Golladay rode a wide receiver-high 11 touchdowns to a WR9 finish in 2019. While the production was impressive, depending on the touchdown rate, nearly a touchdown per 10 targets, to repeat in 2020 is a dangerous proposition. For his production to sustain the 2019 heights, he will need to increase his target volume. While Golladay has outproduced his draft pedigree the offense has bogged down when forced to rely on Golladay as the lead receiver. The Lions return Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, and Kerryon Johnson while adding DeAndre Swift in the NFL Draft, which creates a diverse offense, creating a cap on the Golladay’s volume. At his cost, there are alternatives with more higher-target volume.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay
Jordan McNamara: Chris Godwin’s finish as WR2 in 2019 was a career year that hid regression signals. With 257 points on only 119 targets, Godwin produced 2.16 points per target in a season where targets were worth just below 1.6 points. This stat is one that does not maintain itself from one year to the next, so betting on Godwin to maintain hyper-efficiency is dangerous. To return value, Godwin will need to increase his target volume to account for a downtick in efficiency. With an offense that still features Mike Evans, who has averaged a 145-target pace over the past three years, O.J. Howard, plus new additions Rob Gronkowski and Ke’Shawn Vaughn, it is difficult to project a significant increase in targets for Godwin. At his cost, there are wide receivers with better volume projections than Godwin.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota
Jeff Pasquino: Rookie first-round selection Justin Jefferson landed in a great spot to start right away in Minnesota, as the Vikings created that vacancy by trading away Stefon Diggs to Buffalo during the off-season. Jefferson is considered to be NFL-ready after playing and excelling in the SEC for LSU, posting 111 catches last year in the toughest collegiate conference. While Jefferson has a clear path to starting for the Vikings, Minnesota’s shift in offensive emphasis primarily towards the run game with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison leaves fewer targets for everyone after Adam Thielen. Jefferson should perform well, but expecting a rookie breakout is asking for too much. Longer-term, Jefferson has elite potential, but temper expectations for his first season.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver
Andrew Davenport: The Denver hype train is officially barreling down the tracks and this has pushed Jeudy up into territory that he shouldn't be in. While he's a promising NFL talent, the situation in Denver isn't exactly one to bank on when spending the pick you need to spend to roster Jeudy in fantasy drafts. Drew Lock played in five games at the end of his rookie year and looked like a solid NFL quarterback. But the league is littered with players who started out strong and couldn't produce once defenses got his tendencies on tape. Further, he averaged only 31 attempts per game which was a 16-game pace that fell short of 500 attempts. It doesn't bode well for a rookie wide receiver to come in and learn a new offense during a COVID-shortened offseason while relying on a quarterback who is essentially still in his rookie season as well. Coupled with the fact that the Denver defense looks strong in 2020, and that they added a good runner in Melvin Gordon, the opportunities for anyone in the passing game behind Courtland Sutton look dicey. Jeudy is going far too high for the risk he presents.
Julio Jones, Atlanta
Dan Hindery: Jones is arguably the most talented wide receiver in the NFL and has been incredibly productive throughout his career but I cannot recommend drafting him at his current ADP. I want more touchdown upside to justify the high opportunity cost of passing on one of the true three-down running backs available where Jones is going off the board. Jones has not scored more than 8 touchdowns in any of the last seven seasons. His touchdown rate is below 4% over that stretch. Or to put it differently, he has scored a touchdown once per 26.1 targets over the last seven years (a sample size of 1,000+ targets). Plus, it does not feel like Jones’ age-related risk is fully priced in at his current ADP. Though he has not shown signs of slippage yet, he turned 31-years old in February. It is an age where we cannot rule out the possibility he will lose half a step. More worrisome, we also have to take into account the increased risk of injury for a guy his age. The reward is not enough to justify the risk at his current ADP.
Anthony Miller, Chicago
Jeff Pasquino: Miller is a lackluster second wide receiver with Chicago, a team with a below-average offense that struggles to support a large amount of fantasy value beyond Allen Robinson in the passing game. Miller tends to accumulate short receptions and the Bears hope that he can break them for bigger yardage, as shown by his 217 of 656 receiving yards (33%) after the catch. Miller’s biggest games last season came in contests where Trey Burton missed time, leaving Miller as the third target (behind Allen Robinson and RB Tarik Cohen). If Jimmy Graham stays healthy at tight end this season, Miller will likely finish below his projections and barely be worth a fantasy roster spot.
Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia
Jeff Pasquino: The Eagles may have added several young wide receivers, but make no mistake that the starters are set - Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson will be on the field most of the time on offense this season. Philadelphia spent a precious first-round pick on the speedy Reagor, a playmaker from TCU known more for his speed and explosiveness than for racking up big stat lines from last season. Odds are that the Eagles will work Reagor in as the third or fourth wideout in some play formations, but Reagor looks to be the understudy for DeSean Jackson in 2020. Reagor can learn a ton from Jackson, as both players offer similar playmaking ability and skill.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh
Andy Hicks: Twelve catches for 109 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s a nice game for a receiver. It is however not a good result for the last five games you have played. This is where we are at when assessing JuJu Smith-Schuster. The optimist will insist that Smith-Schuster was carrying an injury and had subpar quarterback play. Some of us think that the departure of Antonio Brown proved that Smith-Schuster is not an NFL number one receiver. Another concern is that Pittsburgh just keeps drafting receivers with high picks. Smith-Schuster himself was taken with the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft. James Washington the 60th pick in 2018, Diontae Johnson the 66th in 2019, and this year the Steelers went even higher with Chase Claypool and the 49th overall pick. In the final year of his rookie contract, Smith-Schuster may think he will be a Steeler for life, but Pittsburgh has shown they won’t be held hostage in contract negotiations. With the luxury of depth at the position, it would not surprise if JuJu leaves after this season. To those relying on Ben Roethlisberger to be the solution, he is closer to 39 than 38 and after missing last season with an injury he doesn’t inspire confidence with his fitness regime. Could this be his final season? Another injury and it’s almost certain. I think Roethlisberger will be fine but think he will target the other receivers more as Smith-Schuster slides down the depth chart.
Sammy Watkins, Kansas City
James Brimacombe: Watkins has always given you an up and down type of season ever since he entered the league seven years ago. He will give you a good game every now and again but he is a constant headache when you draft him in fantasy as you never know when to start him and he often sits on your bench all season. Watkins has finished as the WR62 and WR52 the last two seasons and I feel he is only getting drafted as high as he is because of the fact that he was a 4th overall NFL Draft pick back in 2014 and that he now plays for the Chiefs who have the best offense in the NFL.
Mike Williams, LA Chargers
Jason Wood: Last year, people overvalued Williams because of an unsustainable touchdown rate (10 scores on 66 targets), and it bit them hard. Now only did Williams' show touchdown regression, he went to the opposite end of the spectrum by catching just two scores on 90 targets. He looked lost at times and doesn't have the consistency necessary to vie for top-20 value. With a 57% career catch rate, if Williams couldn't put it all together with Philip Rivers in the huddle, it's hard to get excited at what he'll do with a combination of Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert throwing to him. Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry are better receivers and will earn the play-callers and quarterbacks' trust more readily.
Preston Williams, Miami
James Brimacombe: Williams showed some flashes for the Dolphins in his rookie season playing in just eight games before tearing his ACL. He averaged 7.5 targets, 4 receptions, and 53.5 yards per game and had three total touchdowns. I have no problem with the talent of Williams but it is the ACL surgery in November that worries me and how likely we will see him healthy and on the field to start out the season. If you are drafting Williams this year, you likely have a higher risk tolerance and have a healthy amount of core wide receivers already drafted before you add him to your team.
