The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 7 Votes
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City
James Brimacombe: The Chiefs are the best offense and to target in the league and have the best coach when it comes to the running back position in Andy Reid. He also has draft capital as he was the first and only running back selected in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft. My worries with Edwards-Helaire is that the price is too high for a potential running back committee with Damien Williams. It is true that Edwards-Helaire will see the passing work but it might still be Williams who is seeing the majority of the carries on the ground. Much like all pieces of the Chiefs offense if you want the player you are going to have to pay a high price to draft them on your fantasy team in 2020.
Andrew Davenport: It's not that Edwards-Helaire can't turn into a valuable fantasy asset at some point during the season, because he absolutely can. The issue is, do fantasy players want to sit on him long enough until he turns into the player they drafted? There is every indication that Damien Williams will remain, if not the starter, very involved in the Chiefs offense. In order to justify Edwards-Helaire's ADP, drafters are treating him as though he can step in and start for fantasy teams right away. With the coronavirus impacting all rookies and their ability to assimilate into the league, it's highly unlikely that he'll jump into a role that justifies his price tag before half of the season is gone. If Williams gets dinged up, as he has done, or if Edwards-Helaire grabs the job and runs with it, then his ADP can pay off. But those are two very big hurdles to clear, and it's likely that the high draft pick necessary to grab the Chiefs back is going to weaken a fantasy team that needs to rely on him early in the season. That makes him far too expensive at his current ADP.
David Dodds: In dynasty, Edwards-Helaire will likely be a star for many years to come. It's a perfect situation for him as soon as he learns to adequately pass-protect. And therein lies the rub for me. He's being anointed as the day 1 starter on the Chiefs and I am not buying it. Damien Williams has crushed it the last two years in the playoffs combining for 500 yards and 10 touchdowns in 5 contests. You don't just instantly bench that kind of production and move away what was working. Add less practicing (because of COVID-19 restrictions) and the shark move is to pass on drafting Edwards-Helaire and look to acquire him via trade after Damien Williams starts the year at the position.
Justin Howe: It's tempting to get excited about Edwards-Helaire's rookie prospects in the Kansas City offense. But it makes more sense to temper expectations in redraft; it seems unlikely he'll seize the amount of work expected at this ADP. Probably in 2021, but not just yet. Damien Williams, who should have won Super Bowl MVP in February, returns as a tailor-made back for this offense. He's explosive and, most importantly, simply outstanding in the passing game. Edwards-Helaire was a versatile stud at LSU but is several years behind Williams, who's among the best as a blocker and receiver. He'll need to thoroughly beat out Williams in both aspects to approach high-end RB2 volume. Most of the fantasy appeal of Kansas City's RBs, after all, hinges on touchdown opportunity. Last year's crew combined to touch the ball 394 times, a ho-hum chunk of volume that doesn't lend itself well to a timeshare.
Jeff Pasquino: Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the final pick of the first round in the 2020 NFL Draft in April, and he landed in an ideal spot with the Kansas City Chiefs. Andy Reid employed a committee approach to his Super Bowl-winning season last year, splitting time between Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy (plus Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson), so a reasonable assumption for the rookie would be a split role with Damien Williams. Assuming that Edwards-Helaire can prove to be effective as a rusher, receiver and pass protector, expect a full committee backfield approach this season that will likely keep both backs’ fantasy values in the RB3 / flex range this season.
Matt Waldman: Edwards-Helaire has the talent to become a fantasy RB1 and the Chiefs offense seems like a glamorous fit for the back that Andy Reid compared favorably to former fantasy RB1 Brian Westbrook. However, it took Westbrook five years to earn fantasy RB1 production and his run as a fantasy RB1 only lasted two years. Kansas City has an experienced and talented depth chart and a proclivity for using a committee-style ground game when needed. Unless Edwards-Helaire shows more pop between the tackles as a power runner and addresses his deficiencies in pass protection quickly, I'd rather place my bets on Jonathan Taylor as the most impactful rookie runner in 2020.
Jason Wood: Edwards-Helaire was the only running back drafted in the first round of this year's draft, and his fantasy stock skyrocketed. Few dynasty managers had Edwards-Helaire atop their pre-draft rankings, but his perceived situational gain was so profound, he became the consensus No. 1 pick in rookie drafts. The enthusiasm is understandable, as he steps into the league's most potent offense fresh off a Super Bowl and returning all of its other key offensive cogs. The only hole offensive last year, if there was one, was the lack of an every-down running back. But there are questions that need answering. Can any rookie running back step into a No. 1 role this year given the shortened timelines driven by the pandemic? Can Edwards-Helaire handle a full-time workload? Can he block well enough for Andy Reid to trust him, when the team has multiple veteran options who absolutely know how to keep Patrick Mahomes II upright? There's no question Edwards-Helaire has No. 1 fantasy upside, but you're paying for what might be without any discount. Reid won't hesitate to use a committee approach and Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, and Darrel Williams remain.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville
Sigmund Bloom: The Jaguars tried to trade Fournette during the draft, but couldn’t find any takers willing to give up a second-day pick. Since they have already decided to move on from Fournette after this season, there’s an incentive to see what they have behind him on the roster, and the team also added receiving back extraordinaire Chris Thompson to greatly reduce Fournette’s role in the passing game. Fournette might not be startable at some point this year if he or the staff sours on the lame-duck situation.
James Brimacombe: Entering year four with the Jaguars, Leonard Fournette continues to have his up and downs with the franchise. He has been in constant trade talks and has also been in the news for off-field issues. It is tricky as you look at the numbers and Fournette gives you volume in both the running and receiving game as he finished with 1152 rushing and 522 receiving yards last season but lacked the ability to find the endzone finishing with only 3 touchdowns. Fournette is one of the hardest players to predict for 2020 based on his current situation with the Jaguars and the alone has me scared off of him as I think he has a 50/50 shot at being cut by the team before the season even begins.
Andy Hicks: It is hard to get excited about the prospects of Leonard Fournette in 2020. Jacksonville first of all tried to unload him for basically any draft capital they could get. They failed. He wasn’t offered a fifth year on his rookie deal. His attitude has been questioned and the team looks like it has its eyes past 2020. Fournette has demonstrated enough talent on the field to be a dominant fantasy back, but either the team doesn’t want to use him properly or the problem is with Fournette. A big concern, if he plays for the team, is the lack of touchdowns. Three is all he recorded in 2019 from well over 340 combined touches. How is 2020 going to be better?
Jeff Pasquino: Fournette has been the main offensive producer in Jacksonville, posting two 1,000-yard seasons in his first three NFL campaigns. Last year was his best year, rushing not only for 1,152 yards and three scores but also adding 522 receiving yards on 76 catches. The lack of touchdowns has been a problem for Fournette, with 10 combined scores as a rookie in 2017 but just six the next year with a career-low of only three last season. The Jaguars are expected to struggle on offense as a whole, which limits Fournette’s upside as defenses key on stopping him first and foremost. Jacksonville decided not to pick up his fifth-year contract option, so this will likely be his final season as a Jaguar. The downside risk is too high to take Fournette as early as his ADP suggests this year.
Jason Wood: Is there a team with more questions than the Jaguars? If any team is "tanking for Trevor (Lawrence)", it's Shad Khan's Jaguars. They kept a lame-duck coach, shed any big-contract they could, and did very little in free agency to credibly say to fans they plan on competing for a playoff spot in 2020. Bad teams rarely make for good investments, particularly at the running back position. So Fournette's situation is already tenuous, but that's to say nothing of veteran Chris Thompson's arrival. Thompson owned the third-down receiving role in Washington for the entirety of Jay Gruden's tenure; and Gruden is now the Jaguars' play-caller.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Sony Michel, New England
Sigmund Bloom: Even before the news of offseason foot surgery became public, Michel was not a good target in fantasy drafts. The Patriots offense was already among the league’s worst last year, and now they’ve lost the credibility that Tom Brady gave the passing attack while making no significant additions at wide receiver or tight end to improve the weaponry. Michel’s minimal involvement as a receiver means that you’ll be counting on touchdowns from an offense that won’t produce many this year.
Bob Henry: For starters, Michel may need all summer to return from offseason foot surgery and there is no guarantee he will see as many touches as he did last year after his efficiency plummeted. The Patriots are unlikely to have as many favorable game scripts and he rarely touches the ball as a receiver. All of that combines for a murky outlook and an ADP that may feel like a value if you’re hoping he bounces back into 2018 form, but it’s unlikely without more touches and injury concerns mounting.
Justin Howe: The Patriots could conceivably be a six-win team or worse this season, which isn't fertile ground to go digging at for a lead runner. With their game script, play volume, and touchdown opportunity likely to tumble, Michel wouldn't be an attractive RB2 option even if he had the lead role locked down. He looked stuck in the mud for most of 2019, and he's coming off foot surgery to enter 2020. And he's still yet to show anything on passing downs (19 receptions over 29 career games). Second-year man Damien Harris, who was more or less redshirted as a rookie, does similar things as an interior runner (and is perhaps better). This looks like a timeshare at best, which would leave Michel essentially doing half of half of a fantasy running back's work. It's hard to find a format in which he looks prudent as an RB2.
Jason Wood: Michel was a personal favorite coming into the league from Georgia, but it hasn't worked out. With Michel struggling for consistency on elite Tom Brady-led Patriots units, it's hard to get excited about his fantasy value in 2020 with either Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer under center. Michel hasn't cracked 1,000 yards rushing in either season, which would be fine if he was used as a receiver. But few running backs with his snap percentage are less productive in the passing game; he has just 31 targets in two seasons. That's to say nothing of the foot surgery Michel is recovering from, and reportedly will keep him out into training camp, at a minimum. Bill Belichick has a fickle history with running backs, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if Damien Harris or someone else displaces Michel as the starter. Michel could be a part of a committee, but if he's a one-dimensional player on a committee on an uncharacteristically bad Patriots offense, is he worth the draft pick
KeShawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay
Sigmund Bloom: There is no guarantee that Vaughn will start over Ronald Jones II this year. In fact, with no offseason, it is more likely that Jones opens the season as the starter. The team will likely keep a split like the 2019 backfield that frustrated fantasy players intact. While Vaughn is a better receiver than Jones, he is nothing more than a checkdown target and certainly not a candidate to become the next James White for Tom Brady. It’s possible Vaughn never gets out of the garage in fantasy leagues in 2020.
Andy Hicks: KeShawn Vaughn is your classic third-round running back pick from the NFL draft. Hall of Famers can come from here or guys who bust out very quickly. They generally lack something but have many sterling attributes. How they fit into a system is key to their long term viability. With Tom Brady coming to the team they cannot afford to have a back that cannot pass protect. This will take a lot of reps and trust. This is not the season or the situation where this will work quickly. Having been benched several times for not picking up blitzes in college this is crucial if Vaughn wants to play in 2020. On the bright side, Bruce Arians selected David Johnson when he was with the Cardinals in a similar draft slot. Can lightning strike twice?
Jordan McNamara: KeShawn Vaughn is presumed by many to take over the lead back in the Tampa Bay offense as a rookie. With Tom Brady leading an offense with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the outside, the opportunity looks attractive on paper. However, Ronald Jones II is the incumbent and with no rookie minicamp or OTAs, projecting a rookie to walk into a starting position is a dangerous bet. At the cost, there are other options who have a more established workload.
Jeff Pasquino: Tampa Bay drafted Vaughn in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft, and they expect him to push to contribute in his first season. Vaughn has strong passing-down skills as a receiver, blocker, and pass-protector. Even if Ronald Jones II keeps his starter status, Vaughn is a strong candidate to see action on passing downs and contribute as part of a committee approach in the Buccaneers' backfield. Given the uncertainty as to who will start and get most of the work this year, however, drafting Vaughn too early is not recommended.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Cam Akers, LA Rams
Andrew Davenport: Every year the Rams bring in someone new, and every year the fantasy community overrates the impact that player will have. Two years ago it was John Kelly (who is still on the roster, by the way). Last year it was Darrell Henderson. And in the middle of all of that Malcolm Brown continues to hang on to a sizable role. Certainly, Akers appears to have the edge in talent, but this backfield is a mess that is going to be hard to sort out. It would appear that Henderson has the inside track, but Brown chipped in 5 touchdowns on just 73 touches thanks largely to 16 of those touches coming in the red zone. There is no indication that this situation is anything other than a 3-way committee with Kelly lurking. In order to land Akers in drafts he requires a steep enough price that unless something happens to break the committee logjam in Los Angeles, the pick at his current ADP simply won't pay off.
Bob Henry: Akers may already be the best back on the Rams, or he could be by mid-season. The former consensus five-star running back’s best football may still be in front of him, but he’s being drafted as if he’ll start the season as the lead back, play in passing situations, and command at least half of the snaps and touches. The chances of two of those three things happening are low, but maybe not by October or November. Malcolm Brown is a veteran who understands the offense well and the Rams didn’t match his offer last year just to send him to the bench. He has also been effective at the goal line and can produce on all three downs. Darrell Henderson’s big-play potential will likely keep him in the rotation, too. I’m a believer in Akers’ talent and dynasty value, for sure, but his re-draft ADP is inflated considering the situation and likelihood that it may take him some time to earn the snaps he’ll need to return that value.
Andy Hicks: Cam Akers is being drafted as the presumed starter for the Rams this year following the departure of Todd Gurley. This is not the situation or time to make that assumption. Maybe by seasons end, Akers has the job, maybe he doesn’t. Last year's third-round pick Darrell Henderson and veteran Malcolm Brown will know the system and are more than handy in their own right. Brown himself had five touchdowns last year and Henderson had two games last year with over 10 rushing attempts. If we are going to be real this looks like a running back by committee team with a below-average offensive line. Even if one guy gets the job full time I’m not sure there is enough to be a fantasy starter. If this is a committee then it will end in fantasy disappointment.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland
Jeff Haseley: There are two sides to the Nick Chubb coin. On one side, Chubb is one of the better pure rushers in the league. On the other side, he will share touches and carries with Kareem Hunt for the entire season. Last year, Chubb was the 6th ranked PPR back in Weeks 1-9 with six touchdowns and 22 receptions. Week 10 and later, when Kareem Hunt returned, Chubb was the 15th ranked running back with only 11 receptions and two total touchdowns. If that is an indicator of what to expect when both backs are active, it lessens the fantasy impact for Chubb who already costs a high draft pick price. There are other options with similar expectations with less risk available at the time Chubb is selected in drafts.
Justin Howe: There's a case to be made for Chubb as a top-eight RB, even in PPR formats. But with such a wealth of similar values on the board around there, he doesn't look like a great upside play. First and foremost, Kareem Hunt looms as more than a mere third-down back. Over the final 5 weeks of last season, Chubb dipped from 23 touches to 16 and 86. That's solid for the bottom end of the RB1 scale, but it also likely represents Chubb's ceiling. His usage in the passing game plummeted with Hunt in the fold, and their roles seem pretty strictly-cut at this point. Chubb will be awfully dependent upon big, chunk runs and touchdowns to hit the upper end, which isn't wise to chase in this range.
Jeff Pasquino: Nick Chubb has been the highlight in the Cleveland offense over his first two seasons, with last season marking the high water mark for Chubb with nearly 1,500 yards rushing and eight touchdowns. The Browns struggled for offensive balance with not enough protection in the passing game, but Cleveland addressed the offensive line via free agency and the draft. This year's offensive philosophy is likely to favor running the ball more under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, but what needs to be noted is that once Kareem Hunt was in shape after an eight-game suspension, Chubb's workload decreased in a semi-committee approach. Chubb still had three 100-yard games over the final six games last year, but it would not be surprising for Chubb to lose some work to Hunt as the Browns look to keep both backs healthy. The good news is that Chubb has averaged over 5.0 YPC, so even with fewer touches, he can post RB1 fantasy numbers.
Todd Gurley, Atlanta
Sigmund Bloom: Gurley’s involvement in the passing game fell off of a cliff last year, and now he’ll be the lead back in a running game that struggled to get on track in 2019. The Falcons produced nine rushing touchdowns from running backs last year, three fewer than Gurley, and eight fewer than the Rams did last year. Have we mentioned that he has a degenerative condition in his knee that will make his availability and effectiveness a question mark at times? He does have a soft opening schedule against the run, so if you draft Gurley, be ready to sell high if he gets off to a hot start.
Jeff Haseley: Todd Gurley is in a great situation going back to his Georgia roots with little to no competition at running back. However, we can't ignore the degenerative condition of his knee. Cartilage just doesn't grow back and it could prove to be problematic that will be just enough for him to struggle but not be benched. If that happens, his fantasy production will suffer and owners will keep waiting for his breakout game to jump-start the season that many are expecting, except it doesn't happen, at least not consistently.
Bob Henry: Gurley certainly landed in a favorable situation. Atlanta offers him likely as many red-zone and pass-catching opportunities as he enjoyed as a Ram. It’s should be a top 10 offense and Gurley appears set to be anywhere from an RB1 to an RB2 as long as his body (knees) hold up. Gurley’s health remains a massive question mark. At best, he’s running on borrowed time with arthritis settling in and the week-to-week availability a major question mark. He managed to stay relatively healthy last year but every year we are going into unchartered territory with him because neither he nor the team is likely to divulge anything specific. He’s being drafted a lot closer to the high end for his range of outcomes and I am simply looking at other players at that point in the draft that provide just as much or more upside with a far safer risk profile.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Chris Carson, Seattle
Bob Henry: If we had more clarity into Carson’s health, I’d sign up for his ADP (and probably rank him a tad higher), but hip injuries are a big concern for a back with his physical style. Fumble concerns persist, too, and would have sunk just about any other player, but Carson has repeatedly worked through rough patches and his coaches were rewarded for sticking with him. Still, the Seahawks are unlikely to lean on him for as many carries this year after signing Carlos Hyde and drafting Deejay Dallas. Rashaad Penny isn’t a threat now, but if he returns midseason then he could also force himself back into the rotation. I won’t bet against Carson returning to form, but I won’t be owning him in many leagues as long as his ADP is where it’s at. I’d much rather take a chance on David Johnson or James Conner returning to form or Raheem Mostert picking up where he left off last year.
Jordan McNamara: Chris Carson is recovering from a late-season hip injury and without an offseason program, there have been limited opportunities to see Carson’s health status. With Rashaad Penny recovering from his own ACL injury, Seattle added Carlos Hyde in the offseason. Hyde had a career resurgence in 2019 after appearing to be on the periphery of the NFL in the preseason. Even if Carson is healthy, his fumbling history is extensive and Hyde is a dependable veteran Seattle could turn to in the event of more Carson fumbles.
Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers
Chad Parsons: Ekeler enjoyed a career year with Melvin Gordon holding out for much of the season and returning to less-than-previous production later in 2019. Ekeler was optimized to the tune of 108 targets, second-most of the running back position, and scored a regression-demanding eight receiving touchdowns. Fast-forward to 2020 and, while Melvin Gordon is permanently gone to Denver, so is Philip Rivers to Indianapolis. Rivers was a critical factor in Ekeler's success (and running backs in the passing game for years now for the Chargers). Enter Tyrod Taylor, who was categorically poor in his last starter stint in Cleveland, or rookie Justin Herbert under center and Ekeler, in addition to a sharp receiving touchdown regression, is due for a downturn in overall efficiency with shorter drives and a drop in likely quarterback play.
Jason Wood: Austin Ekeler proved his doubters wrong last year, by producing elite fantasy numbers (RB7) thanks to a 92-reception, 993-yard, 8 receiving touchdown season. The Chargers let Melvin Gordon go, and re-signed Ekeler to a sizeable long-term contract. His role isn't in question, but it's hard to get excited at Ekeler's price tag because his situation is far less predictable. Ekeler was effectively the team's slot receiver last year, for a team that threw the ball 597 times (10th in the league). But Philip Rivers is now in Indianapolis, and Tyrod Taylor will be keeping the seat warm for Justin Herbert. Neither Taylor nor Herbert are capable of matching Rivers' offensive productivity, at least in 2020. The Chargers could be a terrible team for a year or two, and that makes it harder to get excited about any of the skill players. On top of that, if the team expects Ekeler to shoulder a bigger share of the carries, it could backfire. Ekeler isn't a big guy and has a checkered injury history; his season-high 132 carries last year are a far cry from a workhorse. Unless he can match last year's historic catch totals, Ekeler looks more like a low-end RB2 than a top-10 RB1.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas
Phil Alexander: All indications are the Raiders have no plans on increasing Jacobs' role as a pass-catcher, making it fair to wonder how significantly he can improve on his solid rookie season. The team re-signed long-time satellite back, Jalen Richard, and drafted offensive weapon, Lynn Bowden, whom GM Mike Mayock went out of his way to call a running back in his post-draft presser. Perhaps the Raiders offense has improved enough to tack a touchdown or two onto Jacobs' projection, but as long as Las Vegas remains unwilling to take advantage of his obvious talents as a pass-catcher, the upside here is capped.
Sigmund Bloom: Jacobs performed like a champion in the Raiders offense last year, playing through a fracture in his shoulder, but he also couldn’t finish the season and was barely involved as a receiver. The team brought back Jalen Richard and added Lynn Bowden in the third round of the draft as obstacles between Jacobs and receiving opportunity, which means Jacobs will only boost your lineup when he scores a touchdown, which happened in exactly four games last year.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay
Andy Hicks: Aaron Jones finished 2019 as the third-ranked running back yet no one seems in any hurry to draft him anywhere near that slot in 2020. Why? Highly productive running backs in the NFL are becoming an endangered species and you would think he would be valuable to a franchise. Well, the Packers seem to be running to avoid paying him franchise back money and drafted A.J. Dillon in the second round. Apart from Dillon, the 2019 season from Jones screams fluke. 19 touchdowns are not going to happen again and Aaron Rodgers will get his share of touchdowns inside the five again. That said Jones was the key to Green Bays' successful season and he will still have his moments. This will be a case of almost everyone being wrong or almost everyone being right.
Chad Parsons: Jones had a career year in 2019, especially fueled by an NFL-leading 19 touchdowns to lead the position. The mantra of 'listen to what NFL teams tell us with their moves' is vital for the Packers this offseason as two notable additions were blocking-centric Josiah Deguara on Day 2 as a tight end or H-back type and the supersized but athletic running back A.J. Dillon in the second round. Without quality wide receiver depth, look for more power running formations and A.J. Dillon to muscle his way up the depth chart in short order as the tweener-sized Jones is a flimsy bet to repeat his 2019 production, especially finding the end zone as a central reason he finished inside the Top 5.
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco
Phil Alexander: Don't chase Mostert's hot second half. He's got more juice in his legs than most career back-of-the-roster journeymen but if you draft him expecting a repeat of last year's unsustainable touchdown rate, you'll be disappointed. Mostert scored on 6.6% of his total touches in 2019 (second behind Aaron Jones' 6.7%), which was exactly double the league average. The run-heavy 49ers will once again provide fertile ground for running back fantasy production, but last year's playoffs showed Kyle Shanahan will look to ride the hot hand from week to week. In games where Tevin Coleman gets most of the work, Mostert, who never exceeded two targets in a game after getting his shot in Week 12, will not be bailed out by involvement in the passing game. Save him for Best Ball leagues or after you've already picked three running backs in redraft formats.
Andrew Davenport: People drafting Mostert thinking that they'll be getting the running back to dominate the touches in San Francisco carry a level of confidence that isn't warranted based on past history. The track record of relying on 27-year-old running back breakouts for future fantasy success is not a pretty one. Just ask those who banked on Damien Williams in 2019. On top of that, the Niners' offensive trademark has always been rotating running backs in the backfield and doing so in an unpredictable manner. Tevin Coleman ended the year as an afterthought for San Francisco tallying five or fewer carries in his final five games of the season. Then he promptly went out in the first round of the playoffs and ripped Minnesota for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries. There is still the matter of Jerrick McKinnon making his way back as well. The final piece of the puzzle that's risky for Mostert in a PPR league is his lack of involvement in the passing game. He recorded just 14 receptions all year and never caught more than two passes outside of Week 2 when he caught 3. When taking Mostert where ADP demands, fantasy drafters are asking for far too many things to happen to justify his current draft price.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore
James Brimacombe: I like Dobbins in the dynasty community right now but as far as redraft goes his price is just too high. The Ravens still have Mark Ingram who is coming off an RB8 season who looks to be the guy in Baltimore this year as he had 15 touchdowns in 15 games last season. Behind Ingram, there is also Gus Edwards and Justice Hill right alongside J.K. Dobbins. You can make a case for the Ravens being the perfect fit for Dobbins running style but with an RB8 from 2019 in front of him and two other capable backs around him I just don't see a scenario for him to have the type of season that justifies his current price.
Derrius Guice, Washington
Andy Hicks: Tell me if you have heard this before. This is the season for Derrius Guice. Unfortunately for the talented back, his knees have other ideas. A torn ACL in his rookie season. A meniscus tear in his good knee in 2019 followed by an MCL sprain on his left knee. If he plays he will outperform his draft slot. There is no doubt about that. How much does he play? Washington has stocked their running back group with several players sort of expecting Guice to go down again. Adrian Peterson, Bryce Love, Peyton Barber, J.D. McKissic, and rookie Antonio Gibson are a very handy group. You can draft Guice and his one good game in two years and hope for the best, but logic tells you that he cannot be relied upon to stay fit.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit
Phil Alexander: Johnson has missed 14 games over his two NFL seasons and looked like a below-league-average running back before a meniscus tear all but ended his sophomore campaign in Week 7. The Lions brought in D'Andre Swift early in the second round of this year's draft. Swift is more versatile and simply better all-around than Johnson. He's also the more likely of the two to benefit from the pass-heavy game scripts the Lions defense figures to land the team in.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati
Matt Waldman: Mixon earns love based on his untapped ceiling of talent than the actual supporting cast that actually helps players with his skills reach their ceilings. The inability to separate the talent from the supporting cast is one of the greatest challenges for fantasy players and Mixon is a prime example. Although he's had two fantasy RB1 seasons during his first three years, he's now playing with a rookie quarterback, which means that opponents will focus more on the run and make Joe Burrow prove that he can exploit that defensive focus. Add Mixon's potential holdout to the mix and projecting Mixon as a top-12 back is too risky.
Boston Scott, Philadelphia
Jeff Pasquino: The Eagles found a solid backup option behind Miles Sanders last year with former practice squad running back Boston Scott. Scott is more of a scatback than a feature back, and he can step in once and a while to replace Sanders, but he looked better last season in December due to his fresh legs. Philadelphia does not want to rely on Scott as their only back up for Sanders, so if the starter goes down, expect more of a committee approach - either with UDFA Mike Warren or a veteran teaming with Scott.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo
Bob Henry: Singletary is a fun player to watch and I like the Bills offense and overall team heading into this 2020 season. They have continuity, better talent and they may be best positioned to take the divisional crown away from the Patriots. Here’s the rub. I’m not sure if Singletary is the best back on the team. Zack Moss may simply be a younger Frank Gore, but I think he may be more explosive, more reliable in short-yardage, and good enough to force more of an even split for on early-down snaps. Singletary’s value is predicated on more carries and earning third-down snaps, but he’s not very likely to score many touchdowns and it’s not a given that he’ll command all the third-down work either.
DAndre Swift, Detroit
Jordan McNamara: DAndre Swift was a highly touted rookie heading into the NFL draft, but landed in a muddled depth chart in Detroit. Kerryon Johnson has struggled to stay healthy in his career but is a strong interior runner and is the returning starter. Swift is the better receiving back but expecting him to take over the three-down role without a full offseason is a reach.
