A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit
Andrew Davenport: It's easy to forget about Hockenson with all the possible breakout candidates above him, but what shouldn't be forgotten is the role Detroit tried to hand the rookie last season. The Lions clearly had plays designed for him near the goal line, and even ignoring his big Week 1, he still had a chance to score several times early in the season that didn't connect for different reasons. The potential is definitely there for a big leap in year two. He did manage to command 59 targets in the 12 games he played, which would be a solid 80 targets over a full season as a rookie. Further, his catch rate was a paltry 54% due partially to poor quarterback play after starting quarterback Matthew Stafford went down in the middle of the year with a back injury. There is a clear path to value for Hockenson on draft day.
Jeff Haseley: The expectations were high for T.J. Hockenson last season, especially after his productive debut indicated that he might be the next great tight end to enter the league. There is still that chance. Many first-round tight ends have proven to be productive, consistent players in the league, and Hockenson is no different. His talent as both a receiver and a blocker should eventually come to fruition. There were at least three touchdowns last year that did not go to Hockenson, either by penalty negation or finger-tip drops. It would be shocking to see him not progress in his second year, and it could even be more than we expect.
Matt Waldman: Hockenson is low-hanging fruit. He had a lot of drops last year, especially in the end zone. Nothing scares fantasy players and analysts more than dropped passes, especially red-zone passes. Hockenson hasn't had a drop problem in the past, and he lit-up training camp last year. Expect deeper targets, bigger plays, a higher catch percentage, and a lot more fantasy points in an offense that will feature him from two-tight-end sets as well as a detached receiver in three- and four-receiver sets. He's the No.8 option on my board.
Jason Wood: How quickly we forget. Hockenson's ADP and his consensus ranking are among the most egregious early-season mistakes being made in the industry. Hockenson burst onto the scene in Week 1 but was a non-factor for much of his rookie year, and was finally put on season-ending injured reserve with an ankle injury. His lost season is your opportunity. It's not uncommon for rookie tight ends to struggle under the best circumstances. Hockenson was dealing with injuries, the loss of his franchise quarterback, and a one-dimensional offensive game plan. All of those issues are better this year, but more importantly, Hockenson should take a natural step forward in the same way we've seen many of the league's best tight ends do in Year Two. Don't forget he wasn't just the top rookie tight end last year, he was universally considered one of the best prospects of the last decade.
Evan Engram, NY Giants
Andy Hicks: What you are looking for at the tight end position in fantasy football is high-end production. Evan Engram can deliver that when fit. That has been a problem so far in his career, but there is no repeat of any injury. Often young tight ends have to deal with the dual physical demands of the position while the body develops. At 26 Engram should be at the peak of his powers. It has to be noted that the Giants didn’t add a receiver to the average group from last year and they did take the fifth-year option on Engram. Touchdowns and hundred-yard games regularly are quite plausible for the fourth-year man from Ole Miss and his ceiling is the top tight end in fantasy football without the price you need to pay.
Justin Howe: There's plenty of risk in Engram, who hasn't been able to stay upright over the past two years. But when on the field, he's been a clear-cut top-five tight end. Through 3 seasons, his numbers extrapolate over 16 games to a stout 72-831-6 line. And there's reason to expect growth, should his health cooperate, in 2020. Engram's talent isn't in question, and his competition atop the Giants' passing attack isn't particularly strong. Not to mention, Daniel Jones hints at much more efficiency than late-stages Eli Manning did, so there's volume and production to be had. Even for a bad Giants team.
Chad Parsons: Engram has been one of the sleeping giants of the tight end position since entering the NFL, largely due to his collection of missed games. On a per-game basis, Engram has been a top-8 producer each of his first three seasons, matched only by Jeremy Shockey dating back to the mid-1990s for a similar career start. Engram will need a string of health to post a truly dominant year, but the talent and production when he plays have not been a question to-date. Also working in Engram's favor is the lack of a prototypical No.1 receiver with the Giants where Engram could be the WR1 proxy in the offense and being priced beyond the elite tight ends in terms of fantasy draft cost.
Jeff Pasquino: Evan Engram is getting overlooked this year in the tight end rankings. Engram was the fifth overall tight end in fantasy in 2017, his rookie season, where he put up strong numbers (64-772-6). Engram missed five games in his second year but was still on pace for comparable numbers (65-839-4). Last year New York was very much in an offensive transition, with Odell Beckham Jr now in Cleveland and Eli Manning yielding to new starter Daniel Jones. Even with all that turmoil and eight games missed due to injury, Engram was on pace for Pro Bowl-caliber numbers (88-934-6 pace). The Giants do not give Jones many strong options at wide receiver with Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton looking to split duties as the top three receivers. Engram projects as a Top 5 tight end with all of the expected looks over the middle from Jones.
Hayden Hurst, Atlanta
James Brimacombe: Out goes Austin Hooper and in goes Hayden Hurst. That is how I am seeing it for the Falcons at the tight end position this season. Hurst will look to take over all the targets that Hooper is leaving behind and QB Matt Ryan will look to Hurst as his third option in the passing game behind Jones and Ridley. Playing second fiddle to Mark Andrews in Baltimore last season, Hurst still managed to put up a 30/349/2 stat line and will look to double those numbers in a full-time role in Atlanta's pass-first offense.
Andrew Davenport: Obviously you can't simply put Austin Hooper's targets and numbers on Hurst, but it's a good spot to try and exploit considering where Hurst is being drafted. The Falcons still have Dirk Koetter calling the plays on offense and he has a track record of utilizing his tight ends when they're viable. The team clearly wanted to get someone into the fold who could approximate what they were getting out of Hooper after they let him walk and they paid up with some real draft capital to get Hurst. He has the pedigree, and the situation, to far exceed where he's being taken. In fantasy football what more can someone ask for than an offense suited to the position, a wide-open depth chart, and a first-round talent?
Andy Hicks: Atlanta uses the tight end position heavily. Last year Austin Hooper ranked seventh despite missing three games. If we add the stats Jaeden Graham accrued in Hooper’s absence, Hooper finishes fourth. Atlanta was not at all interested in overpaying Hooper in the offseason and instead traded for a more than adequate replacement in Hayden Hurst. Hurst is a former first-rounder who beaten to the starting job by Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Hurst has proven in limited playing time that he can be reliable and productive. For the price you pay and the reward you will get as a baseline, it’s an almost no-lose situation. If Hurst is a better player than Hooper, which purely on draft pedigree is a sure thing, then this is a no brainer.
Jeff Pasquino: Atlanta's offense was successful with their incorporation of Austin Hooper, who stepped up for over 70 catches and 700 yards along with five scores on average the past two seasons. As Jason states, you cannot just plug Hurst in for Hooper and expect the same results, but Hurst fits the same mold. Hurst is a former first-round pick for Baltimore - a team known for drafting tight ends well - and then making moves to give players opportunities elsewhere if they are really blocked on the depth chart. Darren Waller of the Raiders is one clear example. Hurst was plagued by injuries as a rookie and was never able to push for enough playing time, but Baltimore traded Hurst to Atlanta plus a fourth for a second and fifth-round selection, which points to both sides attributing solid value to Hurst.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Mike Gesicki, Miami
James Brimacombe: Gesicki finished the season strong last year scoring all five of his touchdowns in the last six games. Now entering season three in the league, Gesicki is in a prime spot to continue his 2019 late-season breakout. There is a solid shot that he could open the season as the second option in the Dolphins passing game next to DeVante Parker. Preston Williams might need extra time to get ready for the season coming back from his ACL injury. Playing in 15 games in 2019 he finished as TE11, finishing with 51 receptions on 89 targets for 570 yards and five touchdowns.
Jeff Haseley: Looking at fantasy stats since Week 9 last season, Mike Gesicki was 8th among tight ends in PPR scoring. In this time frame, he finished with 1 point fewer than Darren Waller and 3 points fewer than Mark Andrews. In his last six games of 2019, he scored five touchdowns and scored in four of those six games. The 2020 Dolphins have stockpiled young talent and Gesicki is a big piece of their offensive game plan. He could finish in the top 12 and possibly the top 10. Chan Gailey's offense has not been too kind to tight ends in the past, but it's hard to ignore Gesicki's rise at the end of last season and the continued growth and development of the Dolphins offense in 2020 and beyond.
Jason Wood: Finding value at the tight end position can be difficult because the difference between finishing TE6 and TE14 could be a few extra touchdowns over a full season. But Gesicki is one of the more exciting options if you wait at the position because he was an elite producer in the final half of last year. Normally you don't want to overvalue an 8-game stretch, but in this case, it was a light switch going off. The tight end position is among the hardest to figure out, and Gesicki finally found his footing midway through 2019. He came into the league an elite athlete with questionable polish. But as 2019 progressed, the film shows a more aggressive, willing blocker and a far smarter route runner. If those gains were real, he could be this year's Mark Andrews.
Tyler Higbee, LA Rams
James Brimacombe: In a total of 14 games, Higbee broke out in his fourth season for a 69/734/3 stat line on 89 targets and finished as the TE9 in fantasy. His emergence really came on in Weeks 13-17 as he saw 56 targets, 43 receptions, 522 yards, and a pair of touchdowns in those five games. With Cooks now out of town the target share could remain in Higbee's favor in 2020 as he has become one of Jared Goff's go-to targets in the offense.
Jeff Haseley: When Tyler Higbee entered his fourth year in the league in 2019 he had minimal fantasy value and no clear path to greatness. He did see an improvement in each of his first three years, but he was not a key piece to the Rams offense. After Gerald Everett injured his knee, Higbee was given the opportunity to take over at tight end and he excelled. Higbee was the #1 fantasy tight end after Week 12 thanks to four consecutive 100-yard games. He proved that he can be a reliable force in the Rams passing game and is expected to fulfill that role for the team in 2020.
Ryan Hester: The term league-winner is an overused cliche in fantasy football, and it has many meanings. But having Higbee on your roster through the fantasy playoffs last year meant having the kind of edge at the tight end position that in-their-primes Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham used to provide. Higbee gained 522 receiving yards on 43 catches in the final 5 weeks of the year. Skeptics might say that drafting him this year is a gamble that unsustainable production will continue into 2020. But his draft price isn’t that of a top-tier tight end, meaning the risk of ups and downs is accounted for. The rapport he developed with Jared Goff should lead to a number of TE1 weeks.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia
Andrew Davenport: The Eagles tight ends combined for a fantastic bottom line in 2019, and Goedert chipped in over 600 yards and 5 touchdowns. That was good enough to put him in the top ten at the position when the year ended despite 2 games with zero points early in the year. The Eagles were seen as a team that would add multiple pieces at the wide receiver position in the offseason to strengthen a group that was decimated with injuries, but they did not do so. They drafted a wide receiver early in the draft but otherwise have been relatively quiet. There is no guarantee that the same guys banged up last year - Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson - are going to be able to go the full distance again in 2020 and that leaves targets open for other pass catchers. But all of this actually buries the lede somewhat. If something were to happen where Zach Ertz missed time for some reason Goedert instantly becomes a top 3 or 4 option at the position. That's enough to take a chance on him late in drafts.
Andy Hicks: Many will shy away from taking Dallas Goedert in 2020 due to the presence of Zach Ertz on the same team. What this doesn’t take into account is that Ertz will hit 30 this year, while Goedert is still approaching his peak. It wouldn’t be the first time in NFL history that a veteran was eased out for a younger player. It won’t happen overnight, but I expect a significant move this year. Looking at Goedert closely over the first five weeks of 2019 and it was a disaster. Five catches for 43 yards and a touchdown for that whole period. After that it gets interesting. Ertz had 59 catches for 604 yards and five touchdowns from week six onwards, while Goedert had 53 catches for 564 yards and four touchdowns. The changing of the guard could come soon and for 2020 Goedert stands every chance of exceeding his draft slot considerably.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Jared Cook, New Orleans
Jordan McNamara: The ultimate post-hype sleeper, Jared Cook did not meet expectations early in his career but has been solid of late. Cook has been a top 12 finisher for the past three years, something only Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz can also claim. In an offseason with no OTAs or minicamps, Cook represents a solid bet on stability.
Noah Fant, Denver
Ryan Hester: There are many advocates for T.J. Hockenson here, but the case for his former college teammate and fellow 2019 first-round pick is stronger. Fant is a superior athlete, and he has less accomplished competition for targets on his team. Only second-year player Courtland Sutton and rookie Jerry Jeudy can realistically be projected for more targets than Fant. Meanwhile, Hockenson has to compete with accomplished veterans Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr and slot man Danny Amendola. Fant had a pair of 100+-yard games in the back half of 2019 when Denver turned the offense over to Drew Lock. Their rapport could continue into this season.
Hunter Henry, LA Chargers
Jeff Pasquino: Hunter Henry is poised to be one of the top targets for the Chargers this year in a revamped offense and passing game. Philip Rivers is now in Indianapolis, and either Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert (possibly both) will be leading the Los Angeles passing game. Henry has 100 career catches in just two active seasons (he missed all of 2018 due to injury), averaging over 600 yards and scoring nine times total in 26 career contests. Henry must stay healthy to achieve his full value, but he easily projects as a Top 10 tight end option for 2020 and for years to come once Los Angeles signs him to an extension.
