A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis
James Brimacbome: Eric Ebron is now off the depth chart in Indianapolis, and that boosts Doyle's production in my eyes. Doyle was TE18 in 2019 with a 43/448/4 stat line under Jacoby Brissett and now gets an upgrade to the passing offense with Philip Rivers who has a history of getting the ball to his tight end. Doyle has a great opportunity to sneak into a top 10 tight end role this year as his role on the team has been upgraded along with his quarterback.
Andrew Davenport: Having Jack Doyle is like opening socks on Christmas morning - it may not be very exciting, but they'll keep your feet warm. Doyle flashed at times in 2019 like a guy who could be an every-week starter. But every time he would start to look like a consistent producer he would disappoint, like his four-game stretch to end the year with 7 total catches. But Doyle finds himself in a much better situation in 2020 with Eric Ebron gone and Philip Rivers playing quarterback. So, despite struggling with a sub-60% catch rate and an up and down season, he still drew 72 targets. If his efficiency improves at all with Rivers throwing the ball, and the targets spike - at all - with the quarterback tendencies, his TE15 finish from a year ago could easily jump into the Top 12. He's being forgotten in a lot of drafts and his price as an unexciting option should stay low all summer.
Ryan Hester: Doyle will have to contend with newcomer Trey Burton for targets. But when compared to his situation sharing the position with Eric Ebron over the past two seasons, Doyle’s 2020 outlook is a net positive. He also gets an upgrade at quarterback over last year in the form of Philip Rivers, a veteran with a long history of utilizing tight ends -- even ones who are older and not elite athletes.
Chad Parsons: Doyle has quietly posted two years in the Top 10 over the past three seasons. With Eric Ebron gone and a developing, but questionable for 2020, wide receiver group beyond T.Y. Hilton, Doyle's floor and ceiling combination is a sturdy one. Based on historical comparisons, Doyle has some similarities to Kyle Rudolph with a reasonable chance to crash the top-12 this season with improved quarterback play from Philip Rivers.
Jason Wood: Doyle isn't someone to reach for, but he's someone worth having on your short-list if you wait until the last round or two to draft a tight end. Doyle was dealt a rough hand in recent seasons as he had to share the spotlight with Eric Ebron while also managing through injuries. But this year Ebron is a Pittsburgh Steeler and the Colts' new quarterback is Philip Rivers; who has a long history of leaning on his tight ends.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Greg Olsen, Seattle
Chad Parsons: Olsen enters his 14th NFL season with six TE1 seasons under his belt and another five inside the top-20 of the position. Olsen signed with Seattle, which points to some concern about Will Dissly's status at least early in the season. Olsen's price point is in true flyer range, yet the upside is a strong historical producer paired with an elite quarterback as the starter for much (or all) of the 2020 season. Olsen has a reasonable probability for a top-15 or even a top-10 season for a hearty discount.
Jeff Pasquino: Greg Olsen decided to not call it a career and head to the broadcast booth after receiving a $7M, one-year contract from the Seahawks. Seattle features the tight end quite a bit in their offense, as over 100 targets went to the position last season. Olsen is not the Pro Bowl tight end player he once was, but he is more than capable of posting lower-end TE1 numbers in favorable matchups. Grabbing Olsen as a one-year TE2 for fantasy purposes is a solid option, giving fantasy owners exposure to an underrated Seattle passing game led by Russell Wilson.
Matt Waldman: Olsen played 14 games last year after rehabbing a foot injury that hindered him for 16 games between 2017-18. Despite playing most of the year with Kyle Allen, Olsen earned 52 catches, 597 yards, and 2 scores. Usually, the touchdown totals don't drop off tremendously for venerable tight ends, and I believe Allen was a bigger hindrance in this area than Olsen's age. Russell Wilson will prove this notion correct in 2020. Give Olsen an additional 18 points (3 touchdowns) last year and he vaults from 16th among fantasy tight ends to 11th. One of Wilson's most accurate throws has been the seam route to the tight end. He hasn't had the tight ends consistently capable of earning the separation and making the play in the red zone but Olsen's best plays of his career have come on this route in that range of the field.
Jason Wood: Tight end deep sleepers are drafted this late for a reason. I'm not advocating reaching for Greg Olsen, but if your draft gets away from you and you need to draft a tight end at the tail end of your draft, Olsen is among the most logical choices. He's 35 years old. He's on a new team. He nearly retired to become a broadcaster. But, he is also coming off a top-16 season in spite of playing just 14 games. And he looks set to play significant snaps for the Seahawks. Any receiver on the field with Russell Wilson is worth targeting.
Ian Thomas, Carolina
Phil Alexander: The super-athletic Thomas has laid in wait behind Greg Olsen for two years and is finally ready to bust loose as the Panthers starting tight end. He's made the most of his limited NFL opportunities thus far (despite dismal quarterback play) and should become a favorite of Teddy Bridgewater on third-downs and inside the red zone.
James Brimacbome: The Panthers are moving on from both Cam Newton and Greg Olsen and moving forward with the likes of Teddy Bridgewater and Ian Thomas. Thomas did little behind Olsen in 2019 as he couldn't seem to find his way on the field with Olsen in front of him on the depth chart and he only appeared in a total of nine games. Now the opportunity is huge for Thomas to break out with the potential to crack the top 15 tight end range as he could be a nice safety blanket for Bridgewater.
Andy Hicks: For the last five games of his rookie season in 2018, Ian Thomas looked like a future starter. Those of us looking for improvement in year two were left disappointed as Greg Olsen was preferred and Thomas spent a year in apprenticeship. Funnily enough over the final five games of the 2019 season, he recorded 15 of his 16 receptions. With Olsen gone, a new head coach, and a new offensive system in place Thomas is on a lot of people's sleeper lists and with good justification. It’s either Thomas or bust at the Panthers and with Teddy Bridgewater needing a reliable target in the middle, look for his opportunities to increase. Be aware that his ADP could rise with further positive reports, negating his current value.
Jeff Pasquino: Thomas inherits the starting role at tight end for the Panthers this season as Greg Olsen has moved on to Seattle. Thomas had limited opportunities behind Olsen in his first two seasons, but he played more during the final five games last year, turning 26 targets into a respectable 15-132-1 stat line. Projecting that over 16 games gives 48-442-3, which is nearly identical to the staff projections - but this likely represents the floor for Thomas rather than his upside. Thomas was only on the field for 50% of the snaps in three of those same five games last year, and in the two games he played 60+ snaps he racked up nine receptions and 80 of those yards along with his only touchdown. Carolina’s offense is changing now with Teddy Bridgewater and new wide receivers, but Thomas certainly represents a solid fantasy TE2 with upside if he flourishes in the new scheme.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh
Andy Hicks: Those expecting a timeshare at tight end in Pittsburgh this year didn’t see Vance McDonald play last year. He played injured and poorly doing so. At age 30 and having to adjust his contract to remain with the team McDonald will be usurped in the lead role by the enigmatic Eric Ebron. Despite this being his seventh year in the league Ebron is still only 27. His 2018 season with the Colts demonstrated what was expected when drafted with the 10th overall pick in 2014 and where his upside lies for this year. Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger in particular have a proven track record of using the position well and as long as he can stay fit, Ebron is certain to outperform his draft slot.
Jordan McNamara: Eric Ebron is very intriguing this year at his cost. Ebron has been an enigma to start his career. After an underwhelming start to his career in Detroit, Ebron got on the board with a top-12 seasonal finish with the Colts before an abrupt divorce. Ebron landed in a Pittsburg offense with a lot of questions heading into this season. Is JuJu Smith-Schuster a true WR1? Is Diontae Johnson a dependable WR2/3 in an offense? Is James Washington a dependable WR2/3 in an offense? Is James Conner healthy? If you answer no any of those questions, Ebron has the volume potential for a top-6 to -8 season in 2020 with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center.
Chris Herndon, NY Jets
Andrew Davenport: Some players simply have those years where nothing goes right. Chalk up 2019 to a lost season for Herndon. But anyone who watched Ryan Griffin for the Jets last season knows how well Herndon can do in that role. The Jets didn't necessarily pepper the tight end position with targets last year, but they also didn't have a weapon like Herndon manning the position. Take advantage of recency bias in fellow owners and get Herndon at the end of drafts and see what he can do with a healthy offseason and no suspension looming.
Jeff Haseley: Last year was a lost season for the Jets budding tight end. He served a four-game suspension to begin the year and then suffered a hamstring injury and rib injury which eventually shelved him for the rest of the season. He played only one game in 2019 and caught one pass for seven yards. The Jets offense is a work in progress but Herndon is considered to be a piece of the offensive structure. He has top-10 potential, but in addition to his own growth and development, he will need Sam Darnold and the offense to take a step forward. We've seen other tight ends emerge who had a less-than-stellar preseason ranking. Perhaps Herndon can put it all together in his third year in the league?
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Will Dissly, Seattle
Andy Hicks: When getting to the part of your draft where you look for another tight end you can go the safe route and pick your 40-421-3 for a season type of player or instead look for a guy that has top-six upside potential. Such a player is Will Dissly. Dissly has only appeared in 10 games over two seasons to date with six of those showing elite production, two he was injured in, one was his first game and only one other game was disappointing. Fitness is a concern for Dissly with recovery from an Achilles injury suffered last year to be monitored closely. The arrival of Greg Olsen shouldn’t scare you away. Olsen is now 35 and has been either injured or in decline for three years. He is Dissly insurance and not the other way around.
Blake Jarwin, Dallas
Phil Alexander: Jason Witten's departure leaves Jarwin with an opportunity to earn the lion's share of Dallas' tight end snaps. Jarwin ranked eighth in yards per route run and 10th in catch rate at the position last season. Given a full-time role in what profiles as one of the league's better offenses, Jarwin is an intriguing breakout candidate.
Irv Smith, Minnesota
Ryan Hester: In 2019, Smith was targeted almost as many times as veteran Kyle Rudolph. A changing-of-the-guard narrative at tight end for Minnesota is an easy story to tell. In addition, Stefon Diggs left town and is being replaced by a rookie, which could lead to more tight end targets in 2020. If Smith receives two-thirds or more of those Minnesota tight end targets, he could be in the weekly streaming conversation and flash a few TE1 weeks this year.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee
James Brimacbome: Delanie Walker is no longer a Titan and that alone should get people excited for Smith's opportunities in 2020. Smith is entering his fourth season and is coming off career highs in targets 45, receptions 35, yards 439, and touchdowns 3 as he finished as TE17. The Titans need playmakers in the passing offense behind A.J. Brown and this could be the perfect spot for Smith to step in and be a favorite target for Ryan Tannehill. The fear is that the Titans don't pass the ball at a high level as they rely on Henry and their running game. I expect the Titans to mix it up more with a more balanced run and passing game and I think Smith is one of the key pieces to make it work.
Jace Sternberger, Green Bay
Phil Alexander: No one is excusing the Packers for their befuddling draft, but maybe they felt swapping out Jimmy Graham for Sternberger was all the pass-catching upgrade Aaron Rodgers needed. Sternberger is a seam-ripper who has a 60-catch upside given Green Bay's lack of viable targets outside of Davante Adams.
