A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very lain a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 9 Votes
Philip Rivers, Indianapolis
Andrew Davenport: Rivers certainly looked like he had lost a little bit last year at times. But a porous offensive line can make any quarterback look washed up. The Colts are the polar opposite with one of the stronger offensive lines in the league. A savvy veteran like Rivers suddenly finds himself behind a great line, with three very capable running backs, and a group of explosive pass catchers. Dismissing him seems like a bad idea, despite his age. The situation is set up for Rivers to have another quietly productive year as fantasy drafters have largely forgotten him despite the upgraded situation. Take a chance on Rivers late in drafts.
Jeff Haseley: In his 16 years in the league, Philip Rivers has surpassed 4,000 yards passing 11 times, including 11 of the last 12 seasons. He may be in the sunset of his career, but until proven otherwise, he is still a confident, proven quarterback with a solid supporting cast led by veteran T.Y. Hilton. The Colts also have a young corps of receiving talent in Zach Pascal, Parris Campbell, and rookie Michael Pittman Jr As a fantasy quarterback, he has finished inside the top 15 in each of the last seven seasons. A drop in production could come this season, but until then, he is still a viable fantasy commodity who can be drafted as a QB2.
Bob Henry: Rivers signing with the Colts was no surprise. It reunites him with Frank Reich. The two were together in San Diego from 2013 to 2015 where Rivers finished as QB5, QB11, and QB13. Rivers will also be playing behind what’s arguably the best offensive line of his career with a solid mix of skilled targets. As long as Rivers holds true to form at 38 years old, he should easily outplay his ADP and return value either as a committee quarterback or a backup with weekly QB1 upside.
Andy Hicks: The arrival of Philip Rivers in Indianapolis is one of the more intriguing stories of 2020. After 16 years with the Chargers, we get to find out if Rivers was propping up his former side or holding them back. With the Colts he should be a breath of fresh air after Jacoby Brissett struggled to manage the full-time role. The Colts have built a much stronger offense, in theory, than his time with the Chargers. The offensive line is one of the best in the league, a problem often with his former team. There is a strong three-headed monster at running back and a potential explosive corp of receivers. The youth of the offense may be an issue for a veteran needing a side that is ready now, but with Rivers already familiar with this offense, an explosive start is more than feasible.
Jordan McNamara: Sometimes, players just need a change of scenery. Philip Rivers will get the opportunity to play behind one of the best offensive lines in football, with a diverse set of weapons in Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr, Paris Campbell, and Jack Doyle. Rivers finished as QB15 last year when he threw for 4,615 yards last year and was exactly at his career average of 7.8 yards per attempt. His big downfall was the 3.9% touchdown rate, the worst of his career as a starter. Rivers is an excellent bounce-back bet in 2020.
Chad Parsons: Rivers is one of the Rodney Dangerfield quarterbacks in 2020. He gets no respect despite three top-six finishes and another eight seasons in the QB7-12 range over his 14 years in the NFL. Rivers enters a Colts offense with a strong offensive line, T.Y. Hilton primed for a bounce-back, Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor notably added from the NFL Draft, and Jack Doyle a sturdy tight end option. Rivers optimizes offenses with the keyword being protection. Rivers will have it with a much better offensive line than he had of late with the Chargers and a run game which can alleviate pressure from Rivers to be the centerpiece of the offense at all times. The two previous times in Rivers' career he came off of a QB2-level performance, he followed with top-5 seasons. Rivers was QB17 in 2019 as another one of his down years with an opportunity to, once again, crush his draft stock in 2020.
Jeff Pasquino: Rivers joins his first new team in his 17-year career as the new starter for Indianapolis. The good news is that he knows the offense thanks in part to his long history with Frank Reich when both were in San Diego. Rivers is a solid quarterback that never misses a start, but he is getting overlooked because of what the Colt offense looked like last season. Remember that last August, Andrew Luck surprised everyone by retiring, shocking the Colts and forcing them towards a more conservative, run-heavy offense. All that can change this year behind Rivers, who has T.Y. Hilton, two strong tight ends and several young but talented wide receivers to round out the group.
Matt Waldman: Veteran quarterbacks paired with strong offensive line play leads to strong production. Rivers may be in a new town but Frank Reich coached Rivers a few years ago and the personnel catching the ball from Rivers bear a lot of stylistic similarities to the players of Rivers' past in San Diego and Los Angeles. Add a productive ground game to the mix and Rivers will have to take fewer chances to make plays, which will lead to efficient, big-play production. The fact that he's not even at the end of the Top 150 is absurd.
Jason Wood: Philip Rivers has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback eight times in his storied career, but he hasn't cracked the Top 12 in consecutive years. That's part of the reason the Chargers moved on and are planning a rebuild around rookie Justin Herbert. Rivers wasn't unemployed for long, as he takes over in Indianapolis. Many think the Colts are a competent passer short of Super Bowl contention, which makes the signing logical. But does he still have the skill set to be a fantasy starter? The Colts receiving corps is unproven beyond T.Y. Hilton, who has battled a litany of injuries in recent years. The good news is Rivers knows Frank Reich's system intimately from their days in San Diego, so if the Colts young pass-catchers can make a leap, Rivers could surprise with another strong year.
Players Receiving 5 Votes
Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina
Phil Alexander: If Carolina's offense comes together on the field the way it looks like it will on paper, a path to an elite fantasy season exists for Bridgewater. The Panthers defense ranked 32nd against the run last year and lost their franchise linebacker, Luke Keuchly, to retirement. Opponents should be able to impose their will on Carolina's depleted defense, forcing Bridgewater and co. to keep their foot on the pedal for all four quarters most weeks. Considering his top weapons -- Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Ian Thomas -- thrive in yards-after-the-catch situations, Bridgewater's accuracy on short and intermediate throws should be put to good use.
Andrew Davenport: While Teddy Bridgewater wasn't the most exciting player in fantasy when he filled in for Drew Brees last year, he certainly showed he has the chops to play quarterback in the NFL. He steps into a prime spot with a ton of weapons at his disposal. The Panthers added a couple of innovative offensive minds to their coaching staff, plus they added field stretcher Robby Anderson to their receiving corps. The other side of the equation is that while they did select a lot of defensive players in the draft, at least on paper their defense rates as one of the worst in the league as it stands right now. With a stocked set of playmakers, an offensive mind, a tough division, and a bad defense the Panthers look poised to throw up a lot of fantasy points this coming season. Bridgewater has top-12 potential for almost no risk at the back of fantasy drafts.
Jeff Haseley: The Matt Rhule regime signed veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a two-year deal to be the leader of the new Panthers offense. Bridgewater is familiar with offensive coordinator, Joe Brady's offense from his time with the Saints. His knowledge of Brady's offense should make it easier for him to adjust to his new team. Carolina is getting an accurate, intelligent passer who is hungry to prove his worth. The 2020 season will be a chance for Bridgewater to thrive in a well-planned and potent offense with a series of playmakers who can make an impact. The confidence that was built in New Orleans, along with understanding Brady's offense, plus having Carolina's talented weapons at his disposal, could be the ingredients needed to resurrect his career.
Jeff Pasquino: Teddy Bridgewater takes over in Carolina as the starting quarterback after signing a two-year deal with the Panthers. Bridgewater suffered a gruesome injury several years back in Minnesota, and then he had to prove himself as the backup in New Orleans. When Drew Brees was injured, Bridgewater stepped in and showed that he can not only manage a game but also lead his team towards victory. Now he takes over in Carolina with a star tailback, a solid tight end, and three very capable wide receivers at his disposal. Bridgewater is a cheap selection for a fantasy backup quarterback option, but his upside could elevate him towards a Top 12 level if everything falls into place in Carolina.
Jason Wood: Whether Teddy Bridgewater has fantasy relevance comes down to whether you think he's the quarterback we saw in his first 30+ NFL starts, of the one we saw in his final few starts in New Orleans last year. Bridgewater was a glorified game manager in his early years in Minnesota and then battled back from a career-threatening injury before landing with the Saints as Drew Brees' backup. He started five games last year, winning all of them, and earned his new role as the Panthers starter in the process. Bridgewater's first few starts in New Orleans showed the same propensity for short, high-percentage throws even when downfield options were there. But he settled into the role and embraced the vertical routes in the last few starts. If offensive coordinator Joe Brady can entice Bridgewater to stay aggressive, he has top-10 upside. If not, his ADP probably isn't unfair where it stands.
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville
James Brimacombe: Minshew was forced into action early as a rookie when Nick Foles went down with an injury. In 14 games as a rookie, Minshew threw for 3,271 yards and 21 touchdowns and finished as the QB20 on the season. Now with Foles out of the picture the Jaguars feel like they have something special with Minshew as he seemed to jump into the middle of the fire with ease last year. Now with a complete offseason under his belt and successful game experience, Minshew will be that much more of a leader for this Jaguars offense in year number two.
David Dodds: When your team only has Joshua Dobbs, Mike Glennon, and Jake Luton as your backups, it says a lot about their desire to develop you into their franchise quarterback. Minshew had moments in 2019 and finished with 3,271 passing yards, 21 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions. He also averaged over 5 yards a carry and amassed 344 rushing yards. He managed all of this despite playing in just 14 of the 16 games.
Jeff Haseley: Gardner Minshew surprised a lot of people in 2019 after he found himself starting at quarterback for the Jaguars after Nick Foles was injured. He finished with 21 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions, totaling 3,271 yards passing. Not too bad for a rookie quarterback who was drafted in the sixth round. The Jaguars like him enough to part ways with Nick Foles whom they envisioned as their long term answer at quarterback. Now that mindset has shifted to Minshew. Like most rookie quarterbacks, Minshew is expected to improve in year two, especially now that he knows he is in the plans for the Jaguars present and future. To add to his fantasy appeal, Minshew was 5th in quarterback rushing yards (344) trailing only Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Deshaun Watson.
Bob Henry: Minshew is one of my favorite QB2 targets for drafts where I wait out the position and grab two players with good upside at low costs. Minshew should benefit from a weak defense, an improved cast of skilled players, and Jay Gruden’s play-calling. As a rookie, Minshew was one of the best deep-ball throwers in the league and he finished among the top five quarterbacks with 344 but somehow didn’t record a rushing touchdown. He’s typically one of the last quarterbacks drafted, yet he still carries low QB1 potential and enough upside to be a quality backup at the very least. If the Jaguars defense is as bad as we suspect it could be, Minshew will have a lot of opportunities to rack up stats with favorable game scripts and some good weapons to do it.
Justin Howe: Minshew could wind up the season's top quarterback streamer against a relatively easy schedule. He still has no competition to speak of, no prodigious rookie being groomed, no Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque veteran backup. As a rookie, Minshew graded out as the league's most efficient deep-ball passer, and he added 3.4 points a game on the ground. When sifting through the myriad of flawed QB2 options at the ends of drafts, two of the most important projections are big-play upside and ground production. Minshew's stars align beautifully for both, and he won't even be drafted in many leagues.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco
James Brimacombe: The way Garoppolo is being drafted right now you would think that he was a bottom five quarterback last season. The fact is he played his first 16 game season of his career and lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl and finished as an unflashy QB14 on the season. The 49ers are viewed more as a run-first team and that alone pushes Garoppolo's value down some. He has a nice young group of wide receivers in Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, Jalen Hurd, and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel broke out as a rookie and for Garoppolo to really push forward into QB10 territory he will likely need another young wide receiver to break out this year. Garoppolo also has a top-two tight end in the league in George Kittle so there is upside for him entering the year as the 49ers look to be one of the elite teams in the NFC once again.
Andy Hicks: Last year was the sixth season in the league for Jimmy Garoppolo, but amazingly his first full season as a starter. Getting your side to within an inch of winning the Super Bowl is a pretty good result. That said, he has attracted criticism, despite having inexperienced wide receivers or veterans that weren’t good enough. The further development of Deebo Samuel in particular and using a first-rounder on Brandon Aiyuk should help. George Kittle at tight end is a known commodity, but his touchdown numbers are surprisingly low. Garoppolo with his limited experience should now be in the prime of his career and capable of improvement. While the team's defense should limit the upside of the offense, there will be enough passing to ensure Garoppolo is and remains a high-end QB2.
Jason Wood: Jimmy Garoppolo nearly won a Super Bowl last year and has more than earned his place among the NFL's upper echelon. But fantasy managers understand real-world value is not perfectly correlated with fantasy value, and Garoppolo is a victim of the 49ers run-heavy, conservative offense. He ranked 32nd in pass attempts, which makes his QB23 ranking more impressive, in context. The 49ers game plan is enough to discount Garoppolo from QB1 consideration, but there's no reason he can't be an effective rotational option and high-end QB2.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Derek Carr, Las Vegas
Chad Parsons: Carr is certainly on a shorter leash than previous seasons with Marcus Mariota added as the backup. However, his weapons have been less than the ideal of late and the Raiders added Jason Witten, Henry Ruggs, and Bryan Edwards of note this offseason. Carr was an MVP candidate a few seasons ago and has a top-10 fantasy finish to his profile, but he has been a sturdy top-20 option annual as a high-floor play. Carr is a likely bet to surpass his draft stock in 2020 with QB1 upside if there are any weapons upgraded from the Darren-Waller-and-what-else? feel of 2019.
Jeff Pasquino: Last year Carr posted a career-best 4,055 yards, his second 4,000-yard season in a row - and he did that without any receivers exceeding 50 receptions thanks in part to Antonio Brown’s release from the team prior to Week 1. The Raiders are looking to excite their new fan base in Las Vegas by adding significant skill-position talent, starting with first-round selection Henry Ruggs III, two third-rounders (Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards), along with veterans Nelson Agholor and tight end Jason Witten. Marcus Mariota signed a significant contract to push Carr and bolster the depth at quarterback, but Carr should hold on to the starting job after two solid seasons. He has been a solid fantasy QB2 for his entire career (QB14-QB20 for six seasons) and has a strong upside due to the added surrounding talent and the new energy expected as the team starts the Las Vegas era.
Sam Darnold, NY Jets
James Brimacombe: Darnold is entering his third season in the league and has played a total of 13 games in each of those seasons finishing as QB25 and QB28 with the Jets not showing much on offense. The hope for Darnold is to play a full 16 game season and help the passing offense improve. Darnold will have Le'Veon Bell and Frank Gore in the backfield who can be solid passing options for him. At wide receiver, it is the trio of Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and Denzel Mims that will look to help out Darnold's numbers, and hopefully, at tight end, it is Chris Herndon who can put his off-field issues and onfield injuries behind him and be a go-to target for Darnold.
Andy Hicks: The progress Sam Darnold was expected to make in his second year was heavily derailed by his mono diagnosis early in the season. It must also be remembered he is still a very young man with much growth at his disposal. His receiving corp was a major weakness last year and the addition of Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman, plus the return of Chris Herndon at tight end should improve it. A second year in the same offense will be important and while I don’t think we see Darnold at his best this year, he should build nicely into a solid QB2 with better to come down the road.
Tyrod Taylor, LA Chargers
Ryan Hester: Taylor is the veteran placeholder for Justin Herbert’s throne, but that doesn’t mean the team is planning on forcing Herbert into the starting role too early. If Taylor starts the season, he could have some early value. His rushing ability provides him with a floor, and if he can toss a couple of touchdowns in any given week, he has low-end QB1 weekly upside. The Chargers start the year with a visit to Cincinnati, one of the league's worst defenses. Then they host Kansas City, a game in which Taylor could have plenty of snaps against a prevent defense -- something that helps rushing quarterbacks collect cheap fantasy points.
Justin Howe: For obvious reasons, his top-shelf rushing production as a starter - Taylor presents hefty upside from his low ADP. Many are bracing for a Justin Herbert takeover, and that's fair. Taylor didn't look good in his last starting gig, a three-game stint in Cleveland, and it would surprise no one to see coach Anthony Lynn turn to his rookie if he impresses. But Taylor will almost certainly start 6-16 games in 2020, and he's a near-QB1 producer when playing full-time.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami
Ryan Hester: The team is excited about Tua Tagovailoa, but his injury history and status as a rookie with a modified preseason due to COVID-19 cloud his outlook. If Fitzpatrick begins the season as the starter, he has QB1 potential in any given week. Last season, he ended with a flourish, throwing multiple touchdowns in four of his final six games and eclipsing 300 yards in three games during that span. Late-round quarterback strategists who fly too close to the sun and miss out on their preferred targets in the QB14-20 range can snag Fitzpatrick for nearly free.
Jarrett Stidham, New England
David Dodds: Fantasy pundits everywhere keep waiting for the Patriots to add another quarterback to their roster, but it's not going to happen. Coach Bill Belichick has his man in Jarrett Stidham and he is anxious to show the world that he will win without Tom Brady under center. Stidham excelled last preseason completing 61 passes for 731 yards and 4 touchdowns against just one interception in four games, but only attempted four passes during the regular season. Sometimes you just have to believe the coach who sees the player every day in practice.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
Bob Henry: It’s a matter of when, not if, Tagovailoa takes over as the starting quarterback for the Dolphins. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fun, if not great, story, but at some point, his turnovers will mount and the team will turn to their prized rookie. Tagovailoa has all of the physical tools needed to succeed at the pro level and I believe he, along with Joe Burrow, will be among the top-15 fantasy quarterbacks over the second half of the season. That’s if Fitzpatrick holds him off during the preseason. Quarterbacks are more equipped than ever to find success early in the league. Tagovailoa is almost free near the end of drafts, much like Lamar Jackson was and Deshaun Watson before that. He’s a low investment with a better ceiling than his ADP suggests.
