Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 7 Price
- The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
- In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
- I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.
Expected Team Points
Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the ten NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:
- Buffalo Bills (vs MIA) - 29.00 points
- Los Angeles Rams (at ATL) - 29.00 points
- New York Giants (vs ARI) - 26.75 points
- Atlanta Falcons (vs LAR) - 26.00 points
- Green Bay Packers (vs OAK) - 26.00 points
- Dallas Cowboys (vs PHI) - 25.75 points
- Seattle Seahawks (vs BAL) - 25.75 points
- San Francisco 49ers (at WAS) - 25.00 points
- Jacksonville Jaguars (at CIN) - 24.00 points
- Indianapolis Colts (vs HOU) - 24.00 points
Injury/Inactive Watch
- WR Amari Cooper (Q) / WR Randall Cobb (Q) - Both are scheduled to play, but if one or both scratched, Michael Gallup ($8,300) becomes an even stronger play in all formats.
- RB David Johnson (Q) - Should he scratch, RB Chase Edmonds ($9,200) becomes a strong play in all formats.
- WR Dede Westbrook (Q) - Should he scratch, WR D.J. Chark ($11,300) becomes a strong play in all formats.
Situations that stand out to me this week
- Free Square - RB Leonard Fournette, JAC (12,900) - No team has yielded more fantasy points to running backs than the Bengals. They are yielding an average of 193 combined yards and 1.7 touchdowns per contest. Fournette is involved in all phases of the game and his modest salary in a smash spot slots him in all of my builds. I suppose there is a scenario where he doesn't achieve value, but it's not a bet I am even entertaining.
- TE Evan Engram, NYG ($12,400) vs ARI pass defense - The DFS sites have inflated Engram's price so he isn't a must-play, but no team has been as bad as the Cardinals at stopping the opposing tight end. In six weeks, they have yielded four 25+ fantasy performances to tight ends and only had success against the inept Bengals. We all might be over-thinking this one. Engram is likely worth the inflated cost.
- WR Michael Gallup ($8,300) vs Philadelphia's outside cornerbacks - The Eagles have yielded six 100-yard games so far this year to outside wide receivers. It's a smash spot for both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. With Cooper less than 100%, look for Gallup to have an increased role at a modest price.
- Falcons Passing Offense vs Rams Passing Defense - The Falcons have averaged 347 yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game since week 3 while the Rams are yielding 273 yards and 2.2 passing touchdowns during the same time frame.
- Texans Passing Offense vs Colts Passing Defense - The Texans are averaging 304 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns over the last 4 weeks. The Colts have yielded 271 yards and 2.0 touchdowns through the air during that same timeframe.
- Rams Passing Offense vs Falcons Passing Defense - The Rams have generated 315 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns through the air over the last 4 weeks. The Falcons can't stop the pass and have yielded 326 yards and 3.2 touchdowns through the air over the same timeframe. As road favorites and with a defense that also can't defense the pass, this has shootout written all over it.
- Seahawks Rush Offense vs Ravens Rush Defense - The Seahawks are averaging 140 yards and 1.2 touchdowns rushing per game over the last 4 weeks. Over those same 4 weeks, the Ravens have yielded 111 yards and 1.8 touchdowns on the ground. At home and with a loud fanbase, this sets up for a Chris Carson ground and pound game script.
- Vikings Rush Offense vs Lions Rush Defense - The Vikings are averaging 146 yards and 1.2 touchdowns on the ground since week 3 while the Lions attempt to funnel everything to the run. The Lions have yielded 140 yards and 1.3 touchdowns rushing over the last 4 weeks. RB Dalvin Cook should be the prime benefactor of Detroit's defensive scheme.
- Raiders Rush Offense vs Packers Rush Defense - The Raiders are averaging 147 yards and 1.3 touchdowns rushing per game since week 3. Over that same time period, the Packers have yielded 124 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on the ground. With limited weapons in the passing game, the Raiders might be looking to use RB Josh Jacobs in an extended role.
- Ravens Rush Defense vs Seahawks Rush Defense - The Ravens are averaging 196 yards and 1.8 touchdowns on the ground since week 3. The Seahawks have yielded 111 yards and 1.8 touchdowns to runners during this time. Without speedy WR Marquise Brown available, QB Lamar Jackson is set up for another huge running effort.
Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)
- QB Dak Prescott / WR Michael Gallup (Cost = $19,500, FP = 36.9, Ratio = 1.89)
- RB Leonard Fournette / TD Jacksonville Jaguars (Cost = $18,900, FP = 32.6, Ratio = 1.72)
- QB Matt Ryan / TE Austin Hooper (Cost = $22,000, FP = 37.9, Ratio = 1.72)
- QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $22,000, FP = 37.2, Ratio = 1.69)
- RB Devin Singletary / TD Buffalo Bills (Cost = $16,600, FP = 27.6, Ratio = 1.66)
- QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Allen Lazard (Cost = $18,400, FP = 30.1, Ratio = 1.64)
- QB Dak Prescott / TE Jason Witten (Cost = $18,300, FP = 30.1, Ratio = 1.64)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Mohamed Sanu (Cost = $20,500, FP = 33.4, Ratio = 1.63)
- RB David Montgomery / TD Chicago Bears (Cost = $15,400, FP = 24.8, Ratio = 1.61)
- QB Gardner Minshew / WR Dede Westbrook (Cost = $20,100, FP = 32.4, Ratio = 1.61)
- QB Gardner Minshew / WR D.J. Chark Jr (Cost = $21,700, FP = 34.2, Ratio = 1.58)
- QB Josh Allen / WR John Brown (Cost = $22,700, FP = 35.9, Ratio = 1.58)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Calvin Ridley (Cost = $21,900, FP = 34.7, Ratio = 1.58)
- RB Tevin Coleman / TD San Francisco 49ers (Cost = $16,400, FP = 25.9, Ratio = 1.58)
- QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods (Cost = $22,700, FP = 35.7, Ratio = 1.57)
- QB Daniel Jones / WR Golden Tate (Cost = $21,400, FP = 33.4, Ratio = 1.56)
- QB Kyler Murray / WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cost = $24,000, FP = 37.4, Ratio = 1.56)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $25,500, FP = 39.8, Ratio = 1.56)
- QB Daniel Jones / TE Evan Engram (Cost = $22,900, FP = 35.2, Ratio = 1.54)
- QB Jared Goff / WR Cooper Kupp (Cost = $25,700, FP = 39.6, Ratio = 1.54)
- QB Matthew Stafford / WR Kenny Golladay (Cost = $21,200, FP = 32.5, Ratio = 1.53)
- QB Lamar Jackson / WR Willie Snead IV (Cost = $21,100, FP = 32.1, Ratio = 1.52)
Players for GPP differentiation
- QBs: Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Jacoby Brissett, DeShaun Watson
- RBs: Joe Mixon, David Montgomery, Kenyan Drake, Tevin Coleman, Melvin Gordon
- WRs: Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, D.J. Chark, Ted Ginn
- TEs: Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Jason Witten, Gerald Everett, T.J. Hockenson
- Def: Indianapolis, Cincinnati, LA Chargers, Detroit, Washington
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ ATL Stack Projected Points = (164.4)
- QB Matt Ryan, ATL - $11,400
- RB Chris Carson, SEA - $12,300
- RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $12,900
- TE Austin Hooper, ATL - $10,600
- WR Michael Thomas, NO - $14,100 or Cooper Kupp, LAR $14,000
- WR Michael Gallup, DAL - $8,300
- Flex: WR Cooper Kupp, LAR - $14,000
- Flex: TE Mark Andrews, BAL - $9,300
- TD Buffalo Bills - $7,100
Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ BAL Stack Projected Points = (163.6)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $12,700
- RB Chris Carson, SEA - $12,300
- RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $12,900
- TE Mark Andrews, BAL - $9,300
- WR Michael Gallup, DAL - $8,300
- WR Michael Thomas, NO - $14,100 or Cooper Kupp, LAR $14,000
- Flex: RB David Johnson, ARI - $14,600
- Flex: TE Darren Waller, OAK - $8,700
- TD Buffalo Bills - $7,100