Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 4

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Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 4 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the twelve NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• Kansas City Chiefs (at DET) - 30.75 points
• Los Angeles Chargers (at MIA) - 30.00 points
• Los Angeles Rams (vs TB) - 29.25 points
• Seattle Seahawks (at ARI) - 26.50 points
• New York Giants (vs WAS) - 26.25 points
• Baltimore Ravens (vs CLE) - 26.00 points
• Indianapolis Colts (vs OAK) - 26.00 points
• Houston Texans (vs CAR) - 25.75 points
• Atlanta Falcons (vs TEN) - 25.00 points
• New England Patriots (at BUF) - 24.75 points
• Dallas Cowboys (at NO) - 24.75 points
• Detroit Lions (vs KC) - 24.25 points

Injury/Inactive Watch

• RB Rashaad Penny - My projections reflect him being active. If he is inactive on Sunday, Chris Carson will get a significant bump in touches in a plus matchup.
  
  
• WR Julian Edelman is currently projected to start. If he is inactive, both Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett would become criteria plays on this slate.
  
  
• WR Terry McLaurin - He is projected to start as usual. If he scratches, Trey Quinn would absorb a lot of those targets.

Situations that stand out to me this week

• The Chargers depleted skill players vs the Inept Dolphins - The Chargers will be without RB Justin Jackson, WR Mike Williams, WR Travis Benjamin, and TE Virgil Green. This basically ensures RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, and WR Dontrelle Inman should have maximum workloads on Sunday in a game the Chargers have to win. The Dolphins are yielding 296 passing yards and a league-high 3.3 passing touchdowns per contest. They are also yielding a league-high 189 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns per contest. In cash games, I like rostering all three players at a cost of $36,800. My projections have the trio yielding 61.1 fantasy points.
  
  
• Seattle passing offense vs Arizona defense - The Cardinals, without Patrick Peterson, cannot defend the pass. They are yielding 306 passing yards and 3 touchdowns a contest and have been dismal against opposing tight ends. Tight ends are scoring 29.3 fantasy points per game against this unit. Will Dissly provides salary relief and has a matchup that gives him one of the higher ceilings this week.
  
  
• Washington Redskins / New York Giants shootout? - The New York Giants are yielding 346 passing yards and 2.7 passing touchdowns per contest. The Washington Redskins have not fared much better yielding 271 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns per game. Vegas has this game as the second-highest over/under on the slate. Getting creative with Daniel Jones and Case Keenum stacks could create the differentiation necessary to field a top-performing GPP entry.
  
  
• Dallas offense vs New Orleans defense - The Saints defense is once again getting kicked around. They are yielding yards and touchdowns everywhere and Dallas has a plus matchup both on the ground and in the air. The Cowboys have allowed league-low quarterback hits (8) and sacks (2). Dak should have time to hit the open players which in turn could force the Saints to play uptempo to keep pace. Shootouts win GPPs. Don't sleep on this game.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• QB Russell Wilson / TE Will Dissly (Cost = $18,200, FP = 34.6, Ratio = 1.90)
• QB Matt Ryan / TE Austin Hooper (Cost = $18,600, FP = 33.1, Ratio = 1.78)
• QB Russell Wilson / WR Tyler Lockett (Cost = $23,400, FP = 41.7, Ratio = 1.78)
• QB Russell Wilson / WR DK Metcalf (Cost = $20,800, FP = 35.8, Ratio = 1.72)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Mohamed Sanu (Cost = $18,700, FP = 32.0, Ratio = 1.71)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Calvin Ridley (Cost = $19,900, FP = 33.6, Ratio = 1.69)
• RB Austin Ekeler / TD Los Angles Chargers (Cost = $22,200, FP = 37.4, Ratio = 1.68)
• RB Phillip Lindsay / TD Denver Broncos (Cost = $15,600, FP = 26.0, Ratio = 1.67)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $22,300, FP = 37.1, Ratio = 1.66)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $25,200, FP = 41.5, Ratio = 1.65)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cost = $21,900, FP = 35.9, Ratio = 1.64)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown (Cost = $23,800, FP = 39.1, Ratio = 1.64)
• QB Matthew Stafford / WR Kenny Golladay (Cost = $22,200, FP = 35.9, Ratio = 1.62)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Christian Kirk (Cost = $21,800, FP = 35.1, Ratio = 1.61)
• RB Leonard Fournette / TD Jacksonville Jaguars (Cost = $17,600, FP = 28.4, Ratio = 1.61)
• QB Patrick Mahomes / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $27,800, FP = 44.5, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Philip Rivers / WR Keenan Allen (Cost = $28,500, FP = 45.5, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Philip Rivers / WR Dontrelle Inman (Cost = $18,800, FP = 30.1, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Daniel Jones / TE Evan Engram (Cost = $23,200, FP = 37.0, Ratio = 1.59)
• QB Patrick Mahomes / WR Sammy Watkins (Cost = $27,000, FP = 42.8, Ratio = 1.59)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Cooper Kupp (Cost = $24,200, FP = 38.2, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Case Keenum / WR Terry McLaurin (Cost = $19,700, FP = 31.0, Ratio = 1.57)
• QB Patrick Mahomes / WR Demarcus Robinson (Cost = $24,600, FP = 38.4, Ratio = 1.56)
• QB Patrick Mahomes / WR Mecole Hardman (Cost = $25,000, FP = 37.8, Ratio = 1.51)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Tom Brady, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew, Josh Allen
• RBs: Kenyan Drake, Rex Burkhead, Royce Freeman, Derrick Henry, Darrel Williams
• WRs: Dontrelle Inman, Trey Quinn, Emmanuel Sanders, Preston Williams, Marquise Brown
• TEs: Noah Fant, Eric Ebron, Trey Burton, James o'Shaghnessy, Vernon Davis
• Def: Tennessee, Arizona, Minnesota, Buffalo, Dallas

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ SEA Stack Projected Points = (167.2)

• QB Russell Wilson, SEA - $11,400
• RB Austin Ekeler, LAC - $15,100
• RB Christian McCaffrey, $17,700
• TE Will Dissly, SEA - $6,800
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC - $13,300
• WR Dontrelle Inman, LAC - $6,000
• Flex: RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $10,900
• Flex: RB Kerryon Johnson, DET - $9,900
• TD Chicago Bears - $6,300

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ KC Stack Projected Points = (165.1)

• QB Patrick Mahomes, KC - $14,400
• RB Austin Ekeler, LAC - $15,100
• RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $10,900
• TE Travis Kelce, KC - $13,400
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC - $13,300
• WR Dontrelle Inman, LAC - $6,000
• Flex: WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - $10,600
• Flex: TE Will Dissly, SEA - $6,800
• TD LOs Angeles Chargers - $7,100