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Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 14 Price
- The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
- In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
- I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.
Expected Team Points
Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the nine NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:
- Minnesota Vikings (vs DET) - 28.00 points
- Green Bay Packers (vs WAS) - 27.00 points
- New England Patriots (vs KC) - 26.00 points
- Houston Texans (vs DEN) - 25.75 points
- New York Jets (vs MIA) - 25.50 points
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs IND) - 25.00 points
- Tennessee Titans (at OAK) - 25.00 points
- Atlanta Falcons (vs CAR) - 25.00 points
- Baltimore Ravens (at BUF) - 24.75 points
- Cleveland Browns (vs CIN) - 24.25 points
and a few near misses...
- Los Angeles Rams (vs SEA) - 23.50 points
- New Orleans Saints (vs SF) - 23.50 points
- Seattle Seahawks (at LAR) - 23.50 points
Situations that stand out to me this week
- *** Sunday Update: RB Bilal Powell, NYJ ($7,000) - With Le'Veon Bell's scratch, this is the free square of the week. He will be owned above 85% in cash games. The matchup is juicy and his price makes him nearly impossible to fade in any builds.
- *** Sunday Update: WR Will Fuller - His scratch has me moving away from Deshaun Watson and back to Lamar Jackson as my top QB play for cash games.
- *** Sunday Update: WR Jamison Crowder, NYJ ($10,500) - With the scrath of RB Le'Veon Bell, I suspect the gameplan gets tweaked to feature Jamison Crowder more. He has a dream matchup against Jomal Wiltz who is yielding 0.5 fantasy points per route run. He has moved into my cash game builds.
- RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR ($19,400) - The Panthers are all but eliminated from playoff consideration ad the owner responded to their 4th straight loss by firing the head coach. The team has overused Christian McCaffrey all season long and he has delivered for fantasy players, but I think he is a sucker's bet going forward. His price is astronomical at $19,400 and would need to score 30+ fantasy points to be a logical start.
- Teams playing for pride only - This is the time of the year for bad teams to rest stars while evaluating younger players that could have a bigger role in 2020 and beyond. Conversely, the teams battling for those playoff spots tend to lean on their stars as if it was already a playoff game.
- The Minnesota Vikings passing offense vs the Detroit Lions pass defense - Over the last four weeks, the Vikings have averaged 272 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns. During that same span, the Lions have yielded 278 yards and 2.2 touchdowns through the air. With Dalvin Cook not at 100% (and the Lions yielding just one rushing touchdown over the last 4 weeks), the Vikings might attack through the air more than usual.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass defense - To start the year, the Cardinals couldn't defend the tight end position. As the season has gone on, they can't defend any pass play. Usual defensive standout Patrick Peterson has been awful since returning. Over the last four weeks, the Cardinals have yielded 403 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns through the air. The Steelers are down to their third quarterback, and their best wide receiver is James Washington, but this is a get right spot against a defense that has no answers.
- The Dolphins defense - Over the last 4 weeks, the Dolphins are allowing 274 passing yards, 2.5 passing touchdowns, 129 rushing yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per contest. The Jets are rarely considered a great offense, but they have contributed 269 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, 85 rushing yards and a score per contest over the same timeframe. This could be a perfect storm to get QB Sam Darnold on track.
- The Tennessee Titans rush offense vs the Oakland rush defense - Over the last four weeks, the Titans are averaging 199 rushing yards and 2.3 touchdowns on the ground. No one has slowed Derrick Henry who has been the best running back in the NFL over the last 16 games. The Raiders are yielding 126 yards and 1.5 touchdowns via the run over their last 4 weeks. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Derrick Henry doesn't score a touchdown this week.
- WR Davante Adams, GB ($15,300) against Washington's Quinton Dunbar. This is criminal. Adams is costly but worth trying to force into your lineups. It's a smash spot that could see him getting 150 yards and multiple touchdowns.
Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)
- RB Jamaal Williams / TD Green Bay Packers (Cost = $15,300, FP = 28.0, Ratio = 1.83)
- QB Jared Goff / TE Tyler Higbee (Cost = $18,700, FP = 29.0, Ratio = 1.55)
- QB Derek Carr / TE Darren Waller (Cost = $20,600, FP = 31.1, Ratio = 1.51)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $2,6800, FP = 40.5, Ratio = 1.51)
- QB Drew Brees / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $27,000, FP = 40.0, Ratio = 1.48)
- QB Kyle Allen / TE Ian Thomas (Cost = $16,500, FP = 24.5, Ratio = 1.48)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $25,200, FP = 37.2, Ratio = 1.48)
- QB Jameis Winston / WR Chris Godwin (Cost = $26,200, FP = 38.5, Ratio = 1.47)
- QB Josh Allen / WR John Brown (Cost = $22,700, FP = 33.1, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown (Cost = $23,400, FP = 34.1, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Davante Adams (Cost = $28,600, FP = 41.6, Ratio = 1.45)
- QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans (Cost = $26,500, FP = 38.3, Ratio = 1.45)
- QB Josh Allen / WR Cole Beasley (Cost = $21,500, FP = 31.1, Ratio = 1.45)
- QB Baker Mayfield / WR Jarvis Landry (Cost = $23,900, FP = 34.2, Ratio = 1.43)
- QB Kyle Allen / WR D.J. Moore (Cost = $25,200, FP = 36.1, Ratio = 1.43)
- QB Jared Goff / WR Cooper Kupp (Cost = $24,900, FP = 35.4, Ratio = 1.42)
- QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods (Cost = $24,000, FP = 33.7, Ratio = 1.40)
- QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $25,400, FP = 35.6, Ratio = 1.40)
- QB Philip Rivers / WR Keenan Allen (Cost = $23,200, FP = 32.5, Ratio = 1.40)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $28,800, FP = 39.4, Ratio = 1.37)
- QB Tom Brady / WR Julian Edelman (Cost = $27,400, FP = 37.0, Ratio = 1.35)
Players for GPP differentiation
- QBs: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Kyle Allen
- RBs: Patrick Laird, Joe Mixon, James White, Devin Singletary, Austin Ekeler
- WRs: Kelvin Harmon, Courtland Sutton, Curtis Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Zach Pascal
- TEs: Tyler Higbee, Jacob Hollister, Jared Cook, Ian Thomas, Dawson Knox
- Def: Packers, Texans, Saints, Raiders, Buccaneers
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (157.0)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $14,200
- RB Jamaal Williams, GB - $8,200
- RB Bilal Powell, NYJ - $7,000
- TE Hunter Henry, LAC - $9,500
- WR Jamison Crowder, NYJ - $10,500
- WR Michael Thomas, NO - $15,700
- Flex: RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $14,600
- Flex: RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $13,200
- TD Green Bay Packers - $7,100
Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ Projected Points = (155.9)
- QB Aaron Rodgers, GB - $13,300
- RB Jamaal Williams, GB - $8,200
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $13,200
- TE Darren Waller, OAK - $10,600
- WR Davante Adams, GB - $15,300
- WRJamison Crowder, NYJ - $10,500
- Flex: RB Bilal Powell, NYJ - $7,000
- Flex: RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $14,600
- TD Minnesota Vikings - $5,500