WR3 By Committee

Photo: Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports

Over the past several seasons, there have been quite a few very popular articles that look at an interesting approach to building a fantasy team with late value picks. Based on the theory of using both Strength of Schedule ("SOS") and taking two players as a combination to build one very good starting duo, a committee can be built as a standard fantasy league strategy. In general, this is usually a wise move for some positions where depth is not as big of a concern (usually quarterbacks and defenses) because there is rarely a need to pursue an elite option at these positions early in the beginning stages of a fantasy draft.

So with this in mind, I started to think about what else can be done with the committee approach. Tight end? Perhaps. Running back? Maybe. Wide receiver? Hmmm, that's really intriguing, but we should probably look at say the third starting option - Fantasy WR3. What if you could grab two wide receivers later in the draft that could combine to perform on a WR3 - or even WR2 - level, based solely on their current projections and their schedule? Now we're talking. This really got my attention, so I went after this. Let's take a look at how I went about this and then we can digest and discuss the results.

ELIGIBLE RECEIVERS

So how to begin? Defenses and quarterbacks are relatively easy to committee together. There's usually only one quarterback and certainly only one team defense per NFL club, so the approach is pretty simple as far as picking out which players/teams to try and pair up. When it comes to wide receivers, the line is not quite so easy to draw, but I needed some basis to pick which players it made sense to try and combine for a decent committee. I decided that I would use the following criteria to decide which players to start with for evaluating:

CRITERIA #1 - WR37 AND BEYOND

This seems pretty simple. If we want to have a duo that puts up WR3 numbers, that means we want WR36 or better production - else we would just draft WR36 or higher and forget the whole idea. So here is the list of players with which I started, based on their average draft position (ADP):

Table 1: Wide Receivers WR37-WR60 Based on ADP

Notice that the list goes past WR60 since some wide receivers in the WR61-WR75 range had projections comparable or better than WR60, so they deserved to be included (and highlighted for your drafting benefit).

Now we have 27 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 351 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Now, before I go over the method of how to pair them up and the results, we need one more rule:

CRITERIA #2 - NO MORE THAN ONE WR FROM ROUND 7 AND ONE FROM ROUND 8

This could get tricky here, but understand the overall goal. The point of WR3BC is to free up the first six rounds of your fantasy draft to pursue two or three receivers after grabbing a stud running back in Round 1. After six rounds you can have two or three running backs, two or three wide receivers and possibly even a stud quarterback or tight end, depending on your personal preference, or even to get your WR3 and then have the WR3BC be your WR4. Flexibility is the name of the game here. We all want value in our drafts, and having the ability to grab two WRs in Rounds 7 and 8 to act as our WR3BC gives us that ability.

There is some good news – all of the WR3BC candidates have ADPs that put them in Round 8 or later, and only two of the wide receivers - Sterling Shepard (ADP 91) and Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 93) - are in Round 8 itself. There are some other wide receivers that might go in Round 8 (slightly earlier than ADP), so planning on taking two of them could leave you scrambling for your ninth pick if you wait too long for your WR3BC choice. We will have to keep all those details in mind when we look at the WR3BC result because it would not make sense to expect two of these receivers to make it into a committee combination based on their ADP.

So what do we do now to figure out some WR pairs?

CRITERIA #3 - USE FOOTBALLGUYS WR STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

This sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Just take the wide receiver strength of schedule to figure out when certain players are more likely to score well. The method here is similar to what the Projections Dominator and Draft Dominator do for you - take the projected fantasy points and slice them up over 17 weeks based on the strength of schedule, which can be called the distributed fantasy points for each wide receiver.

After the distributed fantasy points were tabulated for all 27 receivers on a weekly basis, the next step is to just compare all of the possible running back pairs to find the best duos for WR3BC. So here we are - time for some results.

Table 2: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pairs

Okay, that is a really big table, but the plan here was to be thorough. As you can see, we have some very good pairs to select from for WR3BC. So digging in, there are 99 pairs in Table 2 to consider, so there are a number of options. Let's also take a look at how often some of these guys show up on the table:

Table 3: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pair Appearances by Player

That is a pretty big result, with five receivers on that list with double-digit appearances, so it is very likely that at least one or both of the WR3 committee duo will come from the top of Table 3.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Now that we have 99 possible pairs to consider, what exactly does that mean? Should we just take one of the best options on the list and call it a day? Well, yes and no. Remember our goal - find a pair of running backs that can combine for WR3 (or better) fantasy production. To figure that out we need a better metric, so here are the projections for WR1 through WR36 (and beyond):

Table 4: Projected Fantasy Points for WRs 10-36+

Based on Table 3, we see that WRs beyond the Top 10-15 are really jumbled based on their ADPs and projections. The Top 15 are all projected for 220+ points this season, with six more in the Top 30 projected to top 200 points. The rest of the WR2 and WR3 candidates (anywhere from WR19 to WR35) have little to no separation, as most of the receivers are projected to score 170-200 points. This is where things really start to get interesting. Based on projections alone, two receivers (Larry Fitzgerald and Sterling Shepard) are expected to score over 175 fantasy points, but these same two players are expected to be still available to be selected after 36 other wideouts are drafted. This combination of uncertainty in ADP and projections proves that there is a very good opportunity to not just build a solid WR3BC but also for that pair to have the potential to compete as a WR2. If we can identify a pair of receivers that can get in this range, we are nearly there. Taking a typical number projected for a mid-range WR3 candidate such as Dante Pettis (ADP of WR31, projected to score 173.1 fantasy points) and adding 8-12 points for a bye week filler, we next look at our possible pairs to see how many exceed 185-189 projected points for 2019, and the answer is 33 pairs. Choosing the correct pair can give us the result we wanted – high end WR3 production (and borderline WR2) on the cheap.

Table 5: Top PPR WR3BC Choices for 2019

PLANNING FOR SUCCESS

Considering all of the results, there are two distinct plans that make sense for 2019:

Plan A: Draft either Larry Fitzgerald (preferred) or Sterling Shepard in Round 7 or 8. Starting your WR3BC with Larry Fitzgerald gives you a future Hall of Fame wide receiver who should be rejuvenated this year in Kliff Kingsbury's new Air Raid offense in Arizona. Fitzgerald is a rock-solid option, especially in PPR, and should be the go-to option for rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. Alternatively, if Fitzgerald is not available, Sterling Shepard is a reasonable consolation and forms half of the top WR3BC in Table 5. The New York Giants are going to have to throw the ball a lot this year, and Shepard should see a big boost in targets with Odell Beckham Jr now in Cleveland. Shepard does have some pitfalls, as he is recovering from a broken thumb and his quarterback could be changed this year if the Giants are not that competitive (which appears likely) and decide to give rookie Daniel Jones the starter role. The safe play is to take Fitzgerald over Shepard with your first WR3BC selection either late in Round 7 or before the end of Round 8. With either Fitzgerald or Shepard secured, taking Dede Westbrook in Round 8 or 9 secures one of the Top 2 WR3BC options for 2019. Westbrook looks like he will be the top receiver for Jacksonville this year, and with Nick Foles now under center, Westbrook could improve on his WR4 expectations. The wide receiver duos of Fitzgerald-Westbrook and Shepard-Westbrook comprise the Top 2 options for WR3BC this year. As for pairing Fitzgerald and Shepard, that barely makes my Top 5 WR3BC options, if only for the draft equity that will have to be spent to secure both players (both Top 100 in the ADP), and also that the duo is outside of the Top 10 WR3BC pairs in Table 5.

Plan B: Larry Fitzgerald and Sterling Shepard are both expected to not get past the end of Round 8, and if you are in a draft where other fantasy team owners are going to target one or both, fallback plans will be required (and you should always have a fallback plan). Considering that Dede Westbrook should still be available if both Fitzgerald and Shepard are selected, drafting Westbrook as your first wide receiver in a WR3BC is a solid option. Westbrook is part of 5 of the Top 6 and 10 of the Top 16 WR3BC options listed in Table 5, which affords you several different options once Westbrook is on your fantasy team. Solid options abound for rounding out the Westbrook-led WR3BC for 2019, including semi-sleeper Mohamed Sanu. Several cheaper wideouts made the Top 10 list for WR3BC in Table 5, including Emmanuel Sanders and Marques Valdes-Scantling. Getting any of those options - or even two of them to make a mega-WR3BC / flex triplet - is a strong choice.

To make it a bit easier to follow, I have ranked my Top 6 WR3BCs in Table 5, based on my own opinion. Drafting any of these wideout duos results in a Top 14 pair of receivers for WR3BC in every case.

For completeness, below are the best combinations of WR3BC with each of the highlighted Top 15 pairs from Table 5.

Suggested WR3BC Schedule Plan - Larry Fitzgerald and Dede Westbrook

Suggested WR3BC Schedule Plan - Sterling Shepard and Dede Westbrook

Suggested WR3BC Schedule Plan - Mohamed Sanu and Dede Westbrook

Suggested WR3BC Schedule Plan - Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Dede Westbrook

Suggested WR3BC Schedule Plan - Larry Fitzgerald and Sterling Shepard

Suggested WR3BC Schedule Plan - Larry Fitzgerald and Emmanuel Sanders

The committee approach is not a perfect one, but having this knowledge prior to your fantasy draft can prove to be invaluable if you decide to adopt this approach. If all the players on your starter list are gone, going with a committee can save your team and help you deal with the loss of bigger names. The method is also a big help in "Best Ball" leagues, where lineup decisions are not necessary every week. That's exactly where a committee can do the best, as either player can count for you each week.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Follow @JeffPasquino