With each passing day, his value will drop and Pollard’s will rise. We're getting close to a point where Elliott playing Week 1 becomes unlikely, and at that point, as many as six weeks out becomes a lot more likely than before we hit that threshold. Elliott is worth a second-round pick even if we factor in six missed games as Mike Florio speculated and there’s still a non-zero chance Elliott plays Week 1, or shows after Week 1. Week 2 coming and going without Elliott showing up would be more alarming, but a “worst-case scenario” here still likely results in half a season from Elliott and one that would feature the heaviest usage of his career in maybe the best overall surroundings.
It’s pure guesswork, but this still feels like a situation to err on the side of taking Elliott, including in the first round, accompanied with a slight reach for Pollard, or otherwise building a running back group in your draft with a #3 you’d feel comfortable starting early in the season.
Other backs/plans that fit a Zeke build:
Take two in between the 2nd-4th. This gives the potential for the killer feature back flex, and the wide receiver depth in the 5th-9th and real potential for three #1 backs in good situations for the stretch run. A plethora of upside backs in the third and Chris Carson or Sony Michel in the fourth really make this an attractive angle.
Duke Johnson Jr, HOU - Uncertainty about what Houston will do at running back introduces some risk that he will be joined by a back that diminishes his outlook, but there’s just as much chance that they add a replaceable backup type like Carlos Hyde and Johnson’s value gets another boost. He’s good. Deshaun Watson is good. This should be good.
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