Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED MONDAY 9/2 @ 3 PM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Houston | -7 | 53.5 | 30.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| New England | Pittsburgh | -5.5 | 50.5 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | Jacksonville | -3.5 | 52 | 27.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| Philadelphia | Washington | -9.5 | 45.5 | 27.5 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| LA Rams | Carolina | -3 | 50 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Seattle | Cincinnati | -9 | 44 | 26.5 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| Dallas | NY Giants | -7 | 45.5 | 26.25 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Tampa Bay | San Francisco | -1 | 50 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Cleveland | Tennessee | -5.5 | 45.5 | 25.5 | + | + | + |
| LA Chargers | Indianapolis | -6.5 | 44.5 | 25.5 | + | ++ | + |
| Detroit | Arizona | -2.5 | 48 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Minnesota | Atlanta | -3.5 | 47 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Chicago | Green Bay | -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| San Francisco | Tampa Bay | 1 | 50 | 24.5 | + | + | |
| Jacksonville | Kansas City | 3.5 | 52 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| Carolina | LA Rams | 3 | 50 | 23.5 | |||
| Houston | New Orleans | 7 | 53.5 | 23.25 | + | ||
| Arizona | Detroit | 2.5 | 48 | 22.75 | |||
| Pittsburgh | New England | 5.5 | 50.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Baltimore | Miami | -7 | 37.5 | 22.25 | +++ | ||
| Atlanta | Minnesota | 3.5 | 47 | 21.75 | |||
| Green Bay | Chicago | 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | |||
| Oakland | Denver | 0 | 43 | 21.5 | |||
| Denver | Oakland | 0 | 43 | 21.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Buffalo | -3 | 40 | 21.5 | + | ||
| Tennessee | Cleveland | 5.5 | 45.5 | 20 | |||
| NY Giants | Dallas | 7 | 45.5 | 19.25 | |||
| Indianapolis | LA Chargers | 6.5 | 44.5 | 19 | |||
| Buffalo | NY Jets | 3 | 40 | 18.5 | |||
| Washington | Philadelphia | 9.5 | 45.5 | 18 | |||
| Cincinnati | Seattle | 9 | 44 | 17.5 | |||
| Miami | Baltimore | 7 | 37.5 | 15.25 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray (Saints), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Jared Cook (Saints), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/NKeal Harry (Patriots)
- Defense: Ravens
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Jared Goff (Rams), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Damien Williams/LeSean McCoy (Chiefs), Jordan Howard/Miles Sanders (Eagles), Todd Gurley (Rams), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Tony Pollard (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Sammie Coates Jr/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/DeSean Jackson/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Brandin Cooks/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp (Rams), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Jaron Brown (Seahawks), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Randall Cobb/Jason Witten (Cowboys)
- Defense: Seahawks, Eagles
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Baker Mayfield (Browns), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Nick Foles (Jaguars)
- Running Back: Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Nick Chubb (Browns), Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Kerryon Johnson (Lions), Tevin Coleman/Matt Breida (49ers), David Montgomery/Tarik Cohen (Bears), Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Leonard Fournette (Jaguars)
- Receivers: Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Odell Beckham/Jarvis Landry/David Njoku (Browns), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers), Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones/Danny Amendola (Lions), Dante Pettis/Deebo Samuel/George Kittle (49ers), Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller/Trey Burton (Bears), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Hunter Henry (Chargers), Dede Westbrook/D.J. Chark/Chris Conley
- Defense: Jets, Chargers, Cowboys, Browns
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Daily FF
Nelson Agholor
Keenan Allen
Danny Amendola
Peyton Barber
Odell Beckham Jr
Tom Brady
Matt Breida
Chris Carson
Nick Chubb
D.J. Chark Jr
Randall Cobb
Tevin Coleman
Chris Conley
Brandin Cooks
Dalvin Cook
Jared Cook
Amari Cooper
Kirk Cousins
Stefon Diggs
Austin Ekeler
Zach Ertz
Mike Evans
Nick Foles
Leonard Fournette
Michael Gallup
Jimmy Garoppolo
Chris Godwin
Jared Goff
Kenny Golladay
Josh Gordon
N'Keal Harry
Hunter Henry
Tyreek Hill
Jordan Howard
O.J. Howard
DeSean Jackson
Kerryon Johnson
Marvin Jones Jr
Alvin Kamara
Travis Kelce
George Kittle
Cooper Kupp
Jarvis Landry
Tyler Lockett
Patrick Mahomes II
Baker Mayfield
DK Metcalf
Sony Michel
Anthony Miller
David Montgomery
Latavius Murray
David Njoku
Dante Pettis
Tony Pollard
Dak Prescott
Allen Robinson II
Kyle Rudolph
Deebo Samuel
Miles Sanders
Matthew Stafford
Adam Thielen
Michael Thomas
Mitch Trubisky
Carson Wentz
Dede Westbrook
James White
Damien Williams
Mike Williams
Russell Wilson
Jameis Winston
Robert Woods
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