A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh
Drew Davenport: Despite missing Week 1 and splitting time with Jesse James in 2018, McDonald was impressive. Last year the wasteland that was called the tight end position was unimpressive as a whole, but McDonald posted a top-10 finish even though he ceded 39 targets to James and his snap percentage hovered between 36% to 65% for all but two games. In fact, McDonald played just one snap more than James during the 2018 campaign. With James now gone, and more importantly, with Antonio Brown and his 169 targets gone as well, McDonald is in line for a bump in both snaps and targets just for showing up. Based on his current ADP McDonald should outperform his current slotting by a wide margin.
Dan Hindery: McDonald and Jesse James combined for 80 catches, 1,033 yards, and 6 touchdowns last season splitting time at tight end. With James now in Detroit, it isn’t crazy to think McDonald can take most or all of the 39 targets James vacated. The expected boost in targets could be even bigger with Antonio Brown out of town and his 168 targets from last season also up for grabs. We could easily see McDonald emerge as the #2 target in one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses. With a current 10th-round ADP, McDonald is an absolute steal.
Dwain McFarland: If healthy, McDonald has a decent chance of matching the production of Hunter Henry and Evan Engram who go earlier than him. Without getting overly optimistic, he also has a chance to knock on the doorstep of the elite tight end tier of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. Why? If he only takes on the additional targets left behind by Jesse James he will approach 15% target share. In an offense that will be in the Top 5 in pass attempts that isn’t a bad baseline. If he picks up a few crumbs from Antonio Brown’s leftovers, he could see a 20% target share. In this offense, that would be around 120 targets. At current ADP, he is a steal.
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