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Historically, it can be difficult to find a rookie quarterback worthy of rostering in a re-draft league. But that is starting to change as more NFL franchises are showing a willingness to put young signal-callers onto the field. Let's see if this continues in 2019.
In a normal, start-one-quarterback league, is there a rookie quarterback who has notable value for the 2019 season? What about in start-two-quarterbacks leagues?
Jason Wood
As we discussed in the Arizona Cardinals roundtable last week, Kyler Murray will be viewed by the consensus as a relevant fantasy quarterback this year. A good portion of our own staff believes he has a top-10 floor and top-5 ceiling. I'm not willing to endorse that view, but he's going to be drafted as a starting quarterback in most redraft leagues. So if you're not a fan, you need to convince yourself to punt at his projected average draft position.
In two-quarterback or superflex leagues, any quarterback with a starting job is worthy of consideration, which means Dwayne Haskins is absolutely in play, with Drew Lock and Daniel Jones considerations off waivers during the season. I think Washington will consider it a disappointment if Haskins doesn't win the job in the preseason, and even if he doesn't, it's impossible to think Case Keenum will play well enough to keep Haskins off the field for long.
Daniel Simpkins
Jason is on the right track. While it’s doubtful that the team as a whole will be a playoff contender under the Kliff Kingsbury regime, the air raid concepts can certainly be successful enough to generate fantasy production. Their up-tempo pace combined with a defense that will still be building toward competence assures plenty of opportunities. With Murray being the engine of that, it’s conceivable that he could end up in the top fifteen at the quarterback position by year’s end. Dwayne Haskins compares favorably to Jameis Winston and is likely to be starting over Case Keenum to begin the season. He continues to be a steal in superflex formats at his current average draft position, but I imagine that he will be much less of a bargain by the summer’s end as people catch on to the fact that he’ll be starting sooner rather than later.
Andy Hicks
The most obvious player has to be Kyler Murray. His rushing stats alone will justify consideration. Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones and any other rookie quarterback likely to see time in 2019 are not going to be the ground threat that Murray is. All will have various levels of development. Add in a different quality of offensive line cohesion and skilled position players at their disposal and without the rushing threat, they should not be seeing time in a start one quarterback league. The Cardinals experiment with a different style of play and having mainly inexperienced players to use it, could blow up spectacularly. Murray is a hit and hope pick, rather than a solid gamble. In start two leagues, Dwayne Haskins has to be a serious consideration. Washington is not going to be put him in unless he can compete with Case Keenum, so training camp progression is vital. Anyone seeing or likely to see the starting field though has to be considered.
Phil Alexander
As of this writing, I have Murray as QB7, which is the second-highest ranking on staff. Is that projection closer to Murray's ceiling than his baseline? Probably. But let's consider some facts:
- The NFL has become a passing league and Kliff Kingsbury's track record suggests the Cardinals will throw often and with efficiency. Per Optimum Scouting's Justis Mosqueda, Kingsbury's teams finished above-average in adjusted yards per pass attempt during each of his nine seasons as a college head coach or coordinator.
- Arizona's defense allowed 26.6 points per game last season and will be without Patrick Peterson for the first six games. Between Kingsbury's pass-heavy tendencies as a play-caller, projected up-tempo pace-of-play, and a questionable Cardinals defense, there are enough reasons to assume the offensive pie will grow enough in Arizona to support Murray as a top-10 quarterback.
- This isn't last year's Cardinals offense. The offensive line is still bad, but at least they'll be healthier than last season. And the pass-catching talent surrounding David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk improved exponentially during the draft with the additions of Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler. A paced-up, pass-heavy scheme that spreads the field with fast, athletic players at every skill position? Sign me up.
- Murray was the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft for a reason. For fantasy purposes, we should absolutely be enamored with his 500+ yard potential as a rusher -- but it's just the icing and not the entire cake. Per PFF, Murray threw 86% of his passes from the pocket last year and his 11.8 yards per attempt ranked second all time. He can navigate a pocket and throw accurately downfield, while under pressure, and into tight windows.
In short (pun fully intended), Murray is a great quarterback prospect, not just a great athlete. Kingsbury's scheme is tailor-made to his strengths and will provide added offensive plays. Arizona's skill position players are all tantalizing physical talents. And the team's shoddy defense should land them in plenty of shootouts. There is a lot to like here for fantasy football.
Dan Hindery
In single quarterback leagues, Kyler Murray is the ideal QB2 target. It has perhaps never been cheaper to lock up a high-floor QB1 starter. According to current ADP, Ben Roethlisberger and Phillip Rivers are going off the board as QB13 and QB14, respectively. We can lock in solid production at a low cost with one of those guys and then swing for the fences on a high-variance No. 2 with Murray.
While Jason and others may be right about the Murray/Kingsbury experiment being a disaster, it makes sense to value Murray the way you would a stock option with huge variability. We can mostly ignore the downside given Murray’s QB21 ADP and focus almost entirely on the upside, which is enormous for the following reasons:
- Pace: Under Kingsbury, Texas Tech consistently ranked near the top of the nation in plays run per game. In Patrick Mahomes II’ final year at Texas Tech, Kingsbury’s offense threw the ball a ridiculous 54.4 times per game. Expect Arizona to use the quick passing game to David Johnson and the speedy slot receivers almost like an extension of the running game. It is tough to predict Murray’s 2019 passing attempts but there is at least a chance it ends up being a big number.
- Murray’s athleticism: In addition to his obvious upside as a passer, Murray is a special athlete. We’ve seen guys like Saquon Barkley, Tyreek Hill, and Odell Beckham as rookies use their speed to break off huge chunk gains. Murray did that at Oklahoma (7.2 YPC) and it shouldn’t be a surprise if he does so in the NFL as well. This is a guy with quickness and legitimate 4.4-speed who is going to be a nightmare for defenses once he gets into the secondary.
The potential for a lot of passing attempts in a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense combined with the potential for explosive plays as a runner gives Murray top-5 fantasy upside even as a rookie.
Murray is a bit less attractive in the Superflex format because we do have to consider the floor much more strongly due to needing two quarterbacks in the lineup every week. I will still target him in that format because I think the reward outweighs the risk, but the case is less clearcut than in one-quarterback leagues.
Sigmund Bloom
Easily Kyler Murray. Between his combination of running ability, escapability, and arm talent, and being placed at the helm of an offense he is perfect for that will put defenses off balance, he'll probably have a big bang to start his rookie season for fantasy. Don't forget that Patrick Peterson will be suspended for the first six games, so the offense will have to work harder to make up deficits. Dwayne Haskins could be relevant in 2-QB leagues if he's a quick study and Daniel Jones running ability alone should keep him on the 2-QB radar even if he's not a player I believe will deliver on his #6 pick investment.
Chad Parsons
I am all-in on Kyler Murray. I see immense fantasy and NFL upside. His rushing ability can get lost with so many focusing on a fraction of an inch of height and the twists and turns of Arizona managing the 1.01 NFL Draft pick and Josh Rosen during the pre-draft (and in-draft) process. Murray can be Michael Vick (or Lamar Jackson) in terms of rushing numbers but with much higher level passing. Murray can be Russell Wilson as a passer with more rushing production.