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The Top 10: Week 13

Matt Waldman opens his film notebook and examines the notable events from Week 12.

By Matt Waldman
November 25, 2019
The Top 10: Week 13
Photo: Reinhold Matay, USA Today Sports
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Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with the wrong process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 12's Cliff's Notes

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. The Titans owned the Jaguars again and did so on the legs of Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Ryan Tannehill—these three have the potential to be the core of a successful offense in 2020.
  2. Leonard Fournette is playing well on a sinking team that blew its opportunity to sell Nick Foles.
  3. Chris Godwin is one of the best wide receivers in football and he teamed with Jameis Winston on Sunday to foil Atlanta's new defensive scheme with chunk plays up the seams of the Falcons defense. One of the details of his game that stands out is how well he frames his hands to the ball as it's arriving. I explain what "framing the hands means" and show how Godwin does it.
  4. We all understand that Winston's career is at a crossroads. For the span of his NFL career, Winston has epitomized the toolsy quarterback who lacks the craft in his game to sustain success. This week, Winston demonstrated moments of craft when he needed them most. However, he's done this before, which leads to a most difficult question: Is Winston turning things around or is he simply a talented tease?
  5. If Winston epitomizes tools without craft, an apt characterization that applies to Carson Wentz in the pocket is "craft without tools." Sunday's debacle against the Seahawks provides several points of illustration.
  6. On the other side of that Eagles' contest, D.K. Metcalf earned several targets that he didn't convert. The source of his woes is Metcalf's unrefined manner of framing the target with his hands. Zach Ertz also provides a worthwhile example of doing this well as another point of comparison to Godwin.
  7. Regardless of what the green-visored geeks think about his contract, Ezekiel Elliott is an excellent running back and one you should be watching closely if you wish to learn more about the craft of the position. His transitional footwork in wet conditions earns the spotlight.
  8. Many draft analysts I know have long-admired Jonathan Williams's potential. His balance, burst, and mostly the Colts' offensive line are the reasons for his past two weeks of success. If the Colts continue using him, fantasy owners should as well. Don't get too enamored with his long-term potential.
  9. If Sony Michel has been a source of weekly consternation for lineup decisions as your RB2, the return of left tackle Isaiah Wynn showed us that Michel is in line for a decent stretch run.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. The Cowboys' special teams unit failed on multiple levels on a rainy afternoon in New England.
    2. The Bears found rookie cornerback Corey Ballantine, the freshest fish on the New York Giants, and drove the field on him.
    3. Chris Carson fumbled on consecutive carries in the fourth quarter.
    4. Rashaad Penny had a good game on the ground but there was a pass-protection assignment where he heard the call of the ice cream truck and Russell Wilson got blown up by a bomb pop named Malcolm Jenkins.
    5. Jeff Driskel delivered a costly interception late in a tie game that led to a Detroit loss.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. The Titans Have a House Cat

Although Derrick Henry appropriately downplayed it to the media, Henry's 238-yard, 4-touchdown taming of the Jaguars in Week 14 of the 2018 season is still on the minds of any football fan who cares about the Titans or Jaguars despite the fact these teams faced off in Week 3 and Henry's 17-44-1 output was a far more modest box score. Most knew the Titans were a meeker team in September with Marcus Mariota under center.

If not, it's become abundantly clear with Ryan Tannehill as Tennessee's starter. Both quarterbacks were top-10 picks in their respective draft classes and while maybe not the superior athlete in terms of measured times, Tannehill expresses his skills on the field like a football player.

I've long believed that Tannehill had the talent to become an NFL wide receiver. Although we've seen Mariota make physical plays as a runner, Tannehill possesses a wiser sense of when to apply his reckless abandon.

Even if this is a reckless ending on the spectrum of finishes, I've seen enough of Tannehill to know that he understands how to finish a play in ways that Mariota never has.

The same can be said for Tannehill's ability to use his arm and legs together for the good of the Titans' offense. While I'll understand if Tennessee opts to draft a quarterback in May, Tannehill has proven a worthwhile reclamation project who fits well in this scheme. Tennessee wants to run downhill, off-tackle, and use play-action boot sequences as a misdirection component that keeps opponents off-balance and Tannehill has all of the tools to run this kind of show.

Get Tannehill outside the tackle box with an option to throw and Tennessee has A.J. Brown at his disposal—a player about to become the ultimate weapon of mass destruction in the middle of the field.

If you're in keeper leagues and not at least seriously considering Brown as one of your priority holdovers for 2020, congratulations on a stacked roster or bless you for not knowing. Right now, there is no other rookie receiver I'd rather have heading into next year than Brown—and that's not meant as a swipe at Terry McLaurin or D.K. Metcalf.

The top three rookie producers at the position, McLaurin and Metcalf are the 21st and 22nd fantasy options in standard formats and Brown is 29th, but Brown is averaging a gaudy 18.7 yards per catch despite working the middle of the field more often than the other two. I'd concede an argument in favor of McLaurin because he's a complete receiver. However, Brown is much closer to developing a complete game than any other option from this class and his upside as a vertical and after-catch threat is higher than McLaurin's.

He will also be cheaper than these two for reasons that I'll detail when discussing Tannehill's future.

In addition to his deep-game prowess, which will only improve, Brown's work within 8-15 yards of the line of scrimmage is a significant reason why opponents can't get too comfortable with putting all its resources in the box to stop Henry. Even when opponents go hard at Henry, they better be disciplined with maintaining gap integrity because Henry has the burst and agility to make them pay for going all-out in the wrong fashion.

The Titans wrecked the Jaguars early in the third quarter because of Henry's big run and after Jacksonville fumbled away the kickoff the defense panicked and resorted to desperate tactics that failed. It's only a portion of Jacksonville's problems that begin from the neck-up of this organization. More on that in a moment.

I think Tennessee keeps Tannehill in 2020, who has been the No.2 fantasy quarterback during the past six weeks despite only playing five games during this span. He's earning a gaudy 9.25 yards per attempt during this span and doing it with a 71 percent completion rate that's only behind Kirk Cousins (71.5). This will be good for the continuity of the offense and its young receivers.

Volume-chasers for receiving targets will cite this as concerns for Brown and Davis, who aren't performing like top starters during this span on a consistent basis. However, Tannehill will earn a full offseason to develop a rapport with these two players in ways that he didn't when Mariota was the starter.

None of this will faze the volume-chasers because most of them won't make this projection. I'm more open to Tannehill developing into a late-career fantasy performer of value because he still hung in there through two head coaches and five offensive coordinators while beginning his career in Miami.

Through it all, Tannehill nearly has a 46-47 record as a quarterback. The quarterback wins stat is a worthwhile layer in a discussion about quarterback play even if it's overstated in certain corners of our analysis community. In Tannehill's case, it adds a layer to the argument that he's been a more significant part of the solution than the problem.

I would not be surprised if Tannehill is a low-end fantasy QB1 in 2020 and his outside receivers, especially Brown, take another step forward. Because fantasy players are impatient by nature, they'll be at a price-point worth the investment to find out.

2. Leonard Fournette is Playing Well But the Jaguars Have Blown It, Long-Term

We're not done with this game because as one organization appears to be on the rise, the other has potentially made a grave error in judgment. This is something Jaguars fan and former RSP-Rotoworld writer Eric Stoner brought up to me last night that I wish I had considered weeks ago.

That error is Nick Foles. A career journeyman best-suited to play a Ryan Fitzpatrick role when the starter gets hurt, Foles had a strong run with an excellent Philadelphia team that earned him a free agent value that his play cannot cash long-term.

Watching him last night, I realized what the Jaguars upper management should have understood before letting Doug Marrone make any personnel decision involving Foles and Gardner Minshew: Foles had starter value on the open market when the Jaguars acquired him and if they didn't play him this year, that value would remain intact.

However, if you open the seal on Foles and what's inside stinks up the joint, bye-bye market value and the potential for a trade that could get Foles's contract off your books. Minshew may have had an up-and-down stretch run but he played well enough to justify sticking with him as the Jaguars' quarterback of the future and keep Foles on the bench and trade him for his top value during the offseason.

After Sunday, Jacksonville is stuck with a backup-caliber quarterback with starter money. Foles targeted Chris Conley—a Donte Moncrief type of underachieving tease with a greater athletic promise than Moncrief—to the detriment of the offensive rhythm and then couldn't deliver an accurate target to D.J. Chark for the rest of the afternoon.

When pressured, Foles looked more like Will Ferrell's version of a power forward in the lane the nimble and aware player we saw from Minshew. The result was near-disastrous decisions that looked awfully familiar during Foles's second-year as Philadelphia's stint as a starter during his first stint with the team.

Even his successful throws had a waft of pungency to them—like this check-down to Leonard Fournette in the fourth quarter. It's Fournette who turned this lemon into lemonade.

I feel for Fournette because he's really upped his play this year, working hard to get into optimal shape and further develop his craft as a route runner. He has always been a good pass catcher, but most teams used him on passes where the routes are simple: screens, wide routes, swing passes, and seam-stretchers like the wheel and bullet route.

Watching Jacksonville use Fournette one-on-one with a linebacker as he exits the line is the type of work that's new and exciting for his future as a receiver.

Fournette—a fantasy RB1 (and top-five PPR option) despite a touchdown-poor season—is clearly frustrated with his team, sitting alone on the sidelines after the game and having a past blowup with his offensive coordinator weeks ago that prompted him to call his dad and seek out mentor Marcus Allen for advice. Fournette cares about winning, the Jaguars' decision to roll with Foles short- and long-term is contentment with mediocrity.

3. Framing the Target And the Buccaneers Victory with Chris Godwin

Atlanta built a two-game winning streak with changes to its defensive scheme, opting for more two-deep safety looks rather than the Seattle-based Cover 3 and Cover 1 that you often saw in the past. Atlanta also used one safety in the shallow range to double up the intermediate zones on dig routes that teams like the Buccaneers run.

Bruce Arians and the Buccaneers made quick adjustments to what they saw from Atlanta on tape and on the field. As a result, Tampa Bay ran away with this game.

One of the most successful things Tampa Bay did was split or attack these safeties and linebackers in the intermediate rage with Chris Godwin.

With well over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns by halftime, Godwin helped build a lead Atlanta could not overcome. What should be more interesting to fantasy players than scheme is the technique of those executing the gameplan—especially when one of those players is arguably one of the best wide receivers in football.

Yes, Godwin is that good. If I could pick one receiver to start an NFL team, he might be at the top of my list. He can run every route, he can play inside and outside, he wins in the red zone, and he's a great timing route option in the middle of the field who is tough after the catch.

Tyreek Hill would likely be my first choice because his speed scares opposing defenses into coverage choices that are beneficial to the rest of the team. However, Godwin is the type of foundational player who can star in multiple roles and makes my offense more flexible.

One of the most compelling components of Godwin's game is his skill for framing the ball. I often illustrate bad hands position with good receivers—think Courtland Sutton—so it's about time to show you great hands position and why it matters.

These are plays of great difficulty and Godwin makes them look easy. It's because he does the hardest work of all, which is drilling relentlessly on getting his hands in the optimal, tight position so both hands meet the ball and fold around it rather than clap-back at it.

4. Jameis Winston's Career CRossroads

Winston made some excellent throws in this game. A toolsy quarterback with a big arm, mobility, toughness, and intelligence, this has never been a question about him.

The question has always been about the craft of Wintson's game. He's great on paper but he lacks wisdom on the field and he has consistently overestimated his creativity when posed with the challenge to do so.

I understand Winston in this sense. I'm creative but I do not have a great eye for color. It's decent but I don't apply it well and compared to my wife, who made a living as an interior decorator and contractor for several years, it's bad. She has an eye for color and she understands the sensitivities people have for colors in a room.

When I've picked colors, they haven't worked out. Some were so bad we stopped painting halfway through. She makes fun of me about it the way I razz her about burning multiple pots in attempts to boil water.

The reason I understand Winston is that I still believe I have a decent eye but it just needs more opportunities to be put to use. There is some truth to it because I have had some successes and it has reinforced my belief that I'm good enough—just like Winston—and those who don't know my track record or are quick to believe in change will believe it as well.

Do the Buccaneers have time to see this through? Is Winston getting better or was it one good game? We have seen this before and Winston has returned to the reckless behavior that burns down his own offense.

I'm skeptical. However, if the Buccaneers pre-Arians are anything like many organizations in and outside of football, no one has told Winston how to specifically avoid being reckless. They didn't spell out what was good and bad, right and wrong, wise and foolish. They expected Winston to know it.

If this is the case, Winston might work through the changes and emerge as a Pro-Bowl quarterback. While entertaining the possibility that organizations are this bad communication, I'd be astounded if it were this bad. Therefore, I'm seeing this week as a false positive in a sinking career as an every-week starter.

Tools over craft seem to be the pervasive reason why teams fail with quarterback evaluation. Maybe one day we'll see some teams decide to roll with veteran journeymen unless it's absolutely sure it picked a quarterback with craft AND tools. Until then, expect a lot more of failed experiments of 3-5 years at a time.

5. There's a REason Carson Wentz WEars POcketless Pants...

He hates pockets. Especially tight pockets. Watch him Sunday against a Seahawks defense missing Jadeveon Clowney and it's clear that Seattle figured out that if it could compress the pocket from the edges and keep Wentz inside, Wentz would become an unbalanced statue who couldn't hit a receiver—even at close range.

The underlying reason for this issue is Wentz's difficulty with moving and resetting his feet with precision.

It has never been a strength of his game and it's why Philadelphia implemented the quick-hitting reads in one phase of the offense while encouraging the scrambling and buying of time when these quick-hitters didn't work. When Seattle limited Wentz's scrambling and injuries to the Eagles receiving corps allowed the Seahawks to take away Zach Ertz with two and three defenders in the area, Wentz struggled.

Still, Eagles fans are beginning to emerge from denial about Wentz's limitations that have always been there and are labeling him a fraud out of anger. Wentz, like most NFL quarterbacks, is a limited talent. Build an effective infrastructure around him and he can excel—even have moments of carrying the team.

Lose some of that infrastructure and Wentz can look average, at best. We don't want to hear this when the player is a first-round pick and we've believed the media that franchise quarterbacks must carry the team at all times or they are failures.

Through all the hype and now, the trashing, Wentz has always been a decent NFL quarterback. He'll need a lot of surrounding talent to ever return to fantasy relevance in single quarterback leagues.

6. D.K. Metcalf, Zach Ertz, And Framing the Target

Let's look at another example of a great player who can frame a target with the best of them, Zach Ertz.

This and Godwin's tape could be instructional for D.K. Metcalf who had a rough outing this weekend for the Seahawks. The rookie failed to connect with Russell Wilson on multiple targets that could have resulted in big plays and one of the pervasive issues was Metcalf's tendency to pull his hands wider from each other as he extended for the ball, which created a bigger need for Metcalf to clap onto the ball.

Metcalf needs an offseason of work where he spends daily time attacking the ball with his pinkies and thumbs close together (depending on the framing technique used) and from a variety of angles so his arms get used to extending in a technically-sound manner.

Metcalf will never be a great route runner, which means he'll be leveraging his size more often to earn the ball. He'll need the precision of good hand framing of the target or we're going to see these outcomes more often when he hits the ground, stretches at difficult angles, and/or deals with contact from opponents playing him tightly.

This is improvable and we'll likely see evidence of whether he's worked at it during training camp and next preseason.

7. Transitional Footwork: A Skill Spotlight on Ezekiel Elliott

I don't care about Ezekiel Elliot's contract or whether you think he's worth that kind of money. I evaluate talent and don't claim to play pretend-general manager. I do care about the besmirching of Elliott's game, especially from statheads who I'm being told can't even get their programs right to spit out the correct calculations on data—and then that data gets passed around and used over and over until the incorrect conclusion becomes a horrible approximation of a factor.

Hopefully, I'll have more about this during the summer after I've checked my facts and tell you specifically what the issue is with supporting information that shines a light on sloppy work. What I can show you is that your eyes are right: Ezekiel Elliott is good—way more than good.

Elliott earned 126 yards from scrimmage on 25 touches against a quality Patriots defense in wet and cold conditions and often made cutbacks and bounce-outs that are difficult under these conditions. Elliott made them look easy because of the precise footwork that leans on mini-steps within movements that look like deep and hard cuts.

You'll notice that Elliott works into a transition that appears as if he's going to bend deeply but instead uses these mini-steps. I believe he did this more often on Sunday due to the conditions of the field and it worked well. However, I've also seen him do this with some cuts on dry land and I bet it preserves his knees and lowers the potential for slipping.

Dalvin Cook executes certain cuts in a similar fashion. Say what you want about Elliott's contract, take your thoughts on his talent elsewhere.

8. The Short-Term And Long-Term of Jonathan Williams

Williams where you separate fantasy from reality. Williams is essentially the No.4 back on the Colts roster earning extended opportunities because he's healthy and finding openings behind a good offensive line.

However, he's fresh, which gives him an added athletic edge against contact and reaccelerating against defenders who are 12 weeks into a season.

It means you need to play Williams if you need a starting running back. There are admirable elements to Williams's game. He's big, he's strong, he runs with balance, and he has good timed quickness.

In a gap-oriented scheme, Williams will do well. He wins head-on collisions against all three levels of the defense and he'll carry defenders. He has a strong stiff-arm and terrific balance.

If he has figured out not to bounce runs outside as often as he did as a collegian, he might stick long-term. Still, this is limited in gap schemes where you follow directions more than making decisions.

Williams hasn't always played to his timed acceleration and he's bounced around the league more than the actual number of teams he's listed with on his Footballguys player page (because he got cut before the season started).

If you have Williams, play him. If you have Jordan Wilkins, don't dump him unless you have to. If you have Naheim Hines, you're at least earning steady points until Marlon Mack returns.

9. Thanks to Isaiah Wynn, Sony Michel Is About to HIt His Stride

A low-end fantasy RB2 for much of the year on a team that rotates three running backs, if not four when Branden Bolden gets going, Sony Michel has been a player we've warned to maintain low expectations since his summer knee woes. Healthy enough to play, Michel's actual issues have been his offensive line.

This unit has been the worst New England has used in years. One of the reasons has been the injury to left tackle Isaiah Wynn. Now that he's back it allowed New England to shuffle its line and put players in positions where they are best suited.

Wynn's return upgraded this ground game, especially when Michel carried the ball.

The Cowboys have been generous to good ground games and stingy with bad ones. They're a good bellwether that New England's ground game has a chance to improve down the stretch. Other than Buffalo in Week 16, who has shown some weakness to the run, Houston, Kansas City, and Cincinnati are three of the 12 most generate teams to running backs this year.

If you haven't been relying on Michel, it may be time to reconsider.

10. FRESH FISH: Week 12

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Cowboys special teams

On a rainy afternoon in New England, Dallas's special teams failed from every source. Brett Maher bounced a kick off the left upright early in the game. The Patriots blocked a punt at the end of the first quarter, recovering the ball deep in Cowboys' territory. Late in the third quarter, the punter kicked a ball that essentially went from one side of the midfield range to the other. And, to cap off the day, Tony Pollard and Jamize Olawale were unprepared for an intentionally short kick-off resulting in a calamity of communication that pinned Dallas deep into its own territory.

It was enough to sink the Cowboys.

Let's move onto additional specimens from the fish market beginning with Rashaad Penny, who had a strong day on the ground but when it came to a Malcolm Jenkins blitz, he heard the ice cream truck (right, Tres?):

Other fish...

  • Chris Carson: I'm impressed that the Seahawks stick with Carson despite leading the league with eight fumbles. He fumbled on consecutive carries and still didn't get benched. I hope this pays off in the playoffs because if he fumbles the game away in January, look out for the media storm.
  • Corey Ballantine: The small-school rookie cornerback of the New York Giants became the focal of a prolonged Bears drive where he earned three consecutive targets against him that resulted in long gains and a field goal in a tight ballgame. The Bears found the weakest link.
  • Nick Foles: See the entry on Fournette.

Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. Good luck next week and may your bold calls come true.

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