The NFL preseason is in full force and the 2019 fantasy football season is right around the corner. One of the big advantages of Footballguys.com is a large database of staff rankings. This series looks at the difference between the collaborative Footballguys staff rankings and myfantasyleague.com positional ADP (Average Draft Position) at the skill positions. In this edition: tight ends.
TIGHT ENDS TO TARGET
- TE4 Ranking
- TE6 ADP
- Why: Golden Tate is suspended to start the season and the Giants are a low-win total team projection without clarity in their passing game outside of Engram and Saquon Barkley. Engram is one of the prime candidates to crash the top-3 tight ends from last year as an elite producer in 2019.
- TE12 Ranking
- TE15 ADP
- Why: Burton was the top red-zone target for the Bears offense last season (15 targets) and expectedly set career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns in his first season as an NFL starter. Despite finishing as TE6 last year, Burton's ADP has downshifted below even questionable older options in Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker.
- TE16 Ranking
- TE23 ADP
- Why: Reed is a per-game play over the course of his career with durability his major hurdle. Reed has missed nearly as many games as he has played. However, Reed hit 87-952-11 the With question marks populating Washington's wide receiver group, Reed is a firm target player considering his lead passing game status in the pecking order yet outside the top-20 tight ends in ADP.
- TE21 Ranking
- TE27 ADP
- Why: Herndon is suspended to start the year but stands as one of the breakout candidates among a crowded second and third tier of tight ends. The Jets passing game adds LeVeon Bell, but the wide receivers are without a true WR1, making Herndon's uptick formula appealing with a rising Sam Darnold and target availability once Herndon returns.
TIGHT ENDS TO AVOID
- TE6 Ranking
- TE4 ADP
- Why: Howard returns from injury but faces heavy competition for targets with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both highly ranked among the receiver position. Howard's floor is high, but as a top-5 ADP tight end a top-2/3 ceiling should be a realistic upside option (like Evan Engram), but Howard lacks the formula historically.
- TE14 Ranking
- TE12 ADP
- Why: Walker returns from injury in his mid-30s with Corey Davis rising as the featured Titans target and A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries quality ancillary weapons. Walker also has the quarterback question mark of Marcus Mariota in a pivotal career season and Ryan Tannehill is functional, but low-ceiling option to-date, forming what could be a limiting committee over the course of 2019.
- TE18 Ranking
- TE13 ADP
- Why: Olsen has one foot towards retirement and Ian Thomas progressing behind him on the depth chart. Olsen's stranglehold on Carolina targets also is markedly different than his last season of dominating production with Christian McCaffrey and now D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel developing into their second and third seasons respectively. Between Olsen's shaky health status and competition for targets, Olsen offers a minimal chance for high fantasy impact.
- TE22 Ranking
- TE18 ADP
- Why: Rookie tight ends, even top-10 drafted options, are historically poor fantasy bets. Add in a stable veteran in Jesse James to offer a transition to the rookie's eventually dominant snaps and playing time opportunity and Hockenson is a non-optimal TE2 proposition. The Lions have been shifting towards the run with their offensive line upgrades, Kerryon Johnson, plus James and Hockenson this offseason at tight end, where Hockenson's volume upside lacks TE1 upside punch as well.
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