Can Nick Chubb Break Into the Top Ten Running Backs?

Photo: Troy Taormina, USA Today Sports

THREE REASONS NICK CHUBB WILL FINISH AMONG THE TOP TEN RUNNERS

1. Chubb’s work in both the passing and run game are likely to increase significantly.
2. The offense around Chubb will create ample opportunities for touchdowns.
3. Kareem Hunt is purely an in-case-of-injury plan. Duke Johnson Jr is a role player and may be traded before the season begins. Neither is a serious challenger to Nick Chubb.

SUMMARY

Unlike last year, Nick Chubb will get the benefit of having the starting job from day one and will not be in a timeshare with Kareem Hunt. On paper, Cleveland is one of the better offensive units in the league. That said, Chubb is sure to have increased production and scoring opportunity as the Browns become a more prolific offensive unit. Considering he’s a lock to finish in the top ten among running backs, Chubb’s current ADP in the second round seems like a steal.

TIME TO JOIN CLUB CHUBB?

Chubb finished 2018 as the second-best rookie running back in PPR scoring, behind only Saquon Barkley. He finished 17th among all running backs. The astounding part of where he placed is that Chubb was in a limited role until Week 7. Factoring in the Week 11 bye, Chubb had just half of the season to generate the rushing and receiving numbers that he did. Surprising some fantasy general managers, Chubb also demonstrated receiving ability by hauling in 20 receptions. While he showed the acumen to do this on his college tape, he was not asked to catch many balls at Georgia. Aside from having a full season of work ahead, there are other reasons to believe that Chubb might significantly improve on what he did last year.

CHUBB’S COACHING

Then offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens took over head coaching responsibilities for the team after their Week Eight loss to the Steelers. The turnaround was almost instantaneous. Kitchens’ 395 yards of offense per game and 6.86 yards per play were both among the best in the league. During the offseason, the team brought in Todd Monken to fill the vacated offensive coordinator role. Monken is best known for what he did with Tampa Bay last year, authoring the best passing attack in the league. This is even more impressive when you consider that both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston were playing at various points. Monken also has spent a vast majority of his coaching career in college running an air raid system, and it’s very likely he’ll bring some of those concepts to the Browns. That is a favorable development for Chubb, who has demonstrated he can take advantage of spread out defenses and break the tackles of smaller secondary defenders. It’s also important to note that the coaching staff has said they will not significantly augment the offense in terms of terminology or system, but are open to installing plays based on the strengths of their players and what the players feel they can excel at. This will mean that the offense keeps its continuity and momentum, but also has the potential to grow as it implements small, positive tweaks to its already existing concepts. Both Kitchens and Monken have demonstrated an attacking mentality when given play-calling duties, which leads one to believe that they will collectively continue to be aggressive. This bodes well for Chubb, who is likely to get increased work in the passing game as the Browns seek to push the ball downfield.

STELLAR SURROUNDING TALENT

Adding arguably the best receiver in the league in Odell Beckham via trade was a shrewd move. It takes the pressure off the rest of the offense (in particular, Jarvis Landry) and gives the Browns a suddenly deep receiving group when you factor in Antonio Callaway and Rashard Higgins as well. David Njoku is also coming into his third year, about the time that young tight ends learn to integrate their skills and become the players that they will be for the duration of their careers. Baker Mayfield has growing to do but proved in his rookie year that he has both the physical skills and mental makeup to thrive in the starting role. Both in terms of personnel and what they’ll be asked to do by the coaching staff, the offense is meaningfully improved from the 2018 version. This will lead to increased output for the unit as a whole, particularly in terms of scoring. As fellow Footballguy Dwaine McFarland explained on a recent podcast, touchdowns are hard to predict, but they are one of the biggest difference makers in terms of fantasy outcomes. Chubb should have increased opportunities to find the endzone while operating in one of the better offenses in the NFL.

WHAT ABOUT KAREEM HUNT AND DUKE JOHNSON?

There has been some concern from fantasy general managers that Kareem Hunt may be a threat to Chubb’s workload. Hunt is suspended for the first eight games of the season. He will first be eligible to play in Week 10 due to the week seven bye, which will not count as a game served toward his suspension. Hunt will have work to do to get back into game conditioning and will likely be worked in slowly. That seems to point to Hunt being more of a backup plan for if Chubb experiences an injury. It’s also interesting that Hunt will be back around the time of the trade deadline. If Chubb remains healthy, the Browns would be in a good position to deal Hunt to a needy team.

Duke Johnson Jr has been less of a concern, but critics of Chubb point out that Johnson’s primary usage is as a receiving back and will, therefore, limit Chubb’s passing upside. The fact is, Johnson may not be a member of the Browns much longer. He has made it very apparent that he wants a trade after it became public knowledge that the team was shopping him during the NFL Draft. It makes one believe that if the right deal comes along, Johnson will belong on another team before the start of the year. Assuming he sticks around, Johnson will get targets, but his presence telegraphs the intentions of the offense in a way that Nick Chubb’s does not. It’s hard to see Johnson getting significant usage that will eat into Chubb’s numbers when Chubb offers more as a receiver, all without betraying whether Cleveland wants to pass or rush on a given play. Johnson had a career low in receptions last year, signaling this changing of the guard.

CHUBB A HUB OF THE OFFENSE

If the Browns are to truly contend for a playoff berth, Chubb will be an important piece of the puzzle. His work in mandatory minicamp has been encouraging so far, with onlookers reporting that Chubb looks to have bulked up, yet seems to be quicker than he was last season. While Cleveland is likely to implement a pass-heavy offense, a competent running game will keep defenses honest and take advantage of lighter defensive personnel groupings that are brought in to defend the pass. Even a 60/40 pass-to-run ratio would leave Chubb somewhere in the 250 rushing attempts range. It’s hard to find runners who command that much of their backfield’s workload and also have the transcendent talent to capitalize on their workload. Chubb has both volume and talent in his corner.

2019 PROJECTIONS

THOUGHTS FROM THE FOOTBALLGUYS MESSAGE BOARD

matttyl reasons that Nick Chubb should get more receptions this year:

“He has all the traits needed, in what should be a very high powered offense. He wasn't much of a target or reception guy, so I don't see those numbers skyrocketing, but they should improve over a full 16 games (he only had 20 receptions last year). Even 2 catches a game would be a 50% improvement.”

wgoldsph thinks expectations should be tempered for Nick Chubb:

“I think we see a tale of two halves from Chubb. As much as Cleveland wants to downplay Hunt’s impact, he's too good a player to only be a change-of-pace back. As Cleveland finds itself in the unfamiliar position of playing for the postseason, they're going to want to manage Chubb’s touches for January.”

killface puts it on record that Kareem Hunt will be a non-factor:

“I am firmly in the camp as long as Chubb performs, Hunt has no impact.”

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Paul Shapiro believes Kareem Hunt’s suspension gives Nick Chubb a slam dunk case for being a top fantasy running back:

“With Hunt out of the way, fantasy owners should feel confident grabbing Chubb in the late-first or early-second round in drafts. Hunt is nothing more than a late-round flier and/or handcuff for Chubb.”

David Latham of Last Word on Pro Football thinks Kareem Hunt will have a 50/50 split with Nick Chubb upon his return:

“Chubb will probably split carries 50/50 with Hunt when the newest Brown returns to the field. However, when Hunt’s suspended, Chubb will the feature back.”

Jared Smola of Draft Sharks doesn’t see Chubb meeting the lofty expectations most have for him:

“But when I’m parsing between 1st- and 2nd-round picks in fantasy drafts, I’m not looking for guys who need outs to reach or exceed value. I’m looking for guys with as few warts as possible. That’s not Chubb.”