Eliminator Pool: Week 12

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

The staff was able to walk away with their third perfect week for the season so far on Sunday, but it was not without some drama. With all of the 17 picks on either Oakland (12) or Minnesota (5), the early window had five staffers sweating the Vikings comeback against Denver until the very last play. Those who took the Raiders at home against the Bengals coasted to victory, giving the staff 17 more wins through 11 weeks. Overall the staff has taken 37 losses throughout the season, which averages out to just over two losses per staff member. Five people (Justin Howe, Dave Larkin, Jeff Haseley, Sean Settle, and Andy Hicks) are 10-1 on the year and tied for first place with six weeks to go. How will it all wind up? Let's start to take a look with the Week 12 picks all in for this week.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 11 was a great week for the staff as the group had a third perfect week, but none of that matters for this coming weekend. The staff is expected to target the larger favorites this week that have not been used much, which points towards Cleveland (-10.5 at home against Miami) and New Orleans (-9.5 hosting Carolina). The Saints took a loss to the Falcons recently before winning last week in Tampa Bay, so expect a lot of Browns picks for Week 12. Two other teams that are favored by nearly a touchdown this weekend are the Steelers (at Cincinnati) and the Bears (hosting the Giants), but both are not locks by any means. Let's see how Thursday morning selections look this week across our 17 staff members.

Thursday Morning Update: The picks are all in, and they are mostly targeted on the two expected teams - Cleveland (12) and New Orleans (2). The Browns have only been used twice by the staff this year (Devin Knotts in Week 9 and Mark Wimer in Week 1). Ironically, both times they have been used, Cleveland suffered a loss - which may not be a good sign for the staff in Week 12. The Saints had been used by the staff a number of times already (10 selections across Weeks 7, 9 and 11), so the lack of Saints picks is understandable. As with the Vikings and Raiders last week, taking Cleveland gives a double-digit favorite with little usage prior to Week 12, so they should be used in most Survivor pools by at least 60% of teams, if not more. Three staffers pointed to two contrarian picks which may be good game theory plays, as both Justin Howe and Will Grant chose the Detroit Lions (-3.5) as a road favorite this week as they head to the 1-9 Washington Redskins. Mark Wimer had the one unique pick this week as he went out on a limb with his choice of road underdog Seattle (+1.5, at the Eagles). The Seahawks are coming off a big win over the 49ers two weeks ago and are well rested after their bye week, which could point to a Seattle victory. With four different teams represented, this could be a moving week in the standings if the Browns burn the staff for the third time this year.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Four weeks ago I did a deeper dive with the analysis and also shared my near-term plan for the next four weeks:

Near-term plan = Pittsburgh (vs. Miami), San Francisco (at Arizona), Indianapolis (vs. Miami) and Minnesota (vs. Denver) in Weeks 8-11.

We all know how this plan panned out with the Colts burning me for my second loss of the year, but the other three picks gave me three victories. Now with just six weeks to go, it is time to look at the next 3-4 weeks before we get to the very tricky end of the season. Starting with this week, both Cleveland (-10.5, vs. Miami at home) and Chicago (-6.5, hosting the Giants) were on my radar for Week 12, as neither the Browns nor the Bears are on my "must use list" for the rest of the year. While the Saints are also projected to win at home against Carolina, a shaky recent history (losing to Atlanta two weeks ago) and an unpredictable Carolina team, taking New Orleans this week in a divisional matchup seemed inadvisable. Either the Browns or the Bears seems like a viable option, but with this contest with the rest of the staff guaranteed to go all the way to Week 17 inclusive, taking Cleveland feels like the best option. I still have several teams with strong winning records left to use (such as Green Bay, Kansas City, Seattle, and the Saints), so going with a weaker Cleveland team that is relatively hot (beating Pittsburgh last week) off of a mini-bye from a Thursday game looks like the best option. I am going to keep a close eye on those Panthers this week as they get Washington at home next Sunday.

The Pick: Cleveland Browns

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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