Eliminator Pool: Week 3

Photo: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

NFL Week 2 was relatively quiet when it came to Survivor and Eliminator contests, even with a few close calls. Only Carolina's loss to Tampa Bay cost the staff, but the effect was minimal. Andrew Garda was the hard-luck loser for the week as he dropped to 1-1, tying Mark Wimer, while the other 15 staffers rose to 2-0. The Carolina loss was the second loss for the staff where each staffer was punished for breaking one of the cardinal rules of Survivor - picking a divisional matchup. No system is perfect and the season is a long one, so let's see how the Week 3 picks look.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 3 comes down to two main decisions - Dallas or New England. Both teams are favored by enormous margins for the week, and most survivor entries will be either the Cowboys or the Patriots. Dallas hosts a tanking Miami Dolphins team, and the Cowboys are favored by more than three touchdowns at home. New England is also favored by over three touchdowns at home as the Patriots host a Jets team that lost to Cleveland on Monday Night Football last week. The Jets looked rather inept on offense, which lines up well with the fact that New York is now on its third quarterback in Luke Falk, who was on the Jets' practice squad less than a week ago. Now with Sam Darnold out (mono) for at least a few more weeks and Trevor Siemian (ankle) lost for the season. Both Dallas and New England should easily win (both teams are being picked at a consistent 100% likely to win rate on CBS Sports), and the Money Line for both teams is in the realm of ridiculous (Dallas is at -2800 or higher, with the Patriots at -3000 or more). The only two questions are which team to pick, or if you want to fade both and go with a different selection and hope for a monstrous upset. The Footballguys' staff mostly went with Dallas (14 of 17 picks) as the Patriots look to have a much easier schedule, so this is likely the best time to use the Cowboys and thus save New England for later. Only Alex Miglio chose to go with New England, while two staffers went the route of selecting an alternative team from the clear top two picks of the week. Will Grant is going with Seattle (home against the Saints) as New Orleans is without Drew Brees for the first time in a long, long time - but Seattle (-4 to -4.5 favorite, -200 to -220 Money Line, about 65-68% implied win rate) at home is not a lock in this case. Matt Bitonti also went out on his own with his choice of San Francisco (-6.5) to beat Pittsburgh, as the 2-0 49ers host a Steelers team starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback. The 49ers look to be a better overall pick based on Las Vegas odds (Money Line of -280 to -300, or about 75% implied win rate), but both picks are in the riskier category. Even on a week with two dominant favorites, four different NFL teams are on the list, so there could be some separation coming at the top of the standings after Week 3.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Week 2 worked out just fine with Baltimore, although it was a bit closer for the Ravens than expected. This points towards taking a pause soon to reevaluate my preseason plan after this week, and that is something I am very likely to do as some teams have lost their starting quarterbacks and a few others are looking a little better than expected. Going back to the preseason plan, I strongly considered sticking with the Vikings pick as Minnesota hosts the Raiders. The Vikings are favored by 8.5 or 9 points based on VegasInsider.com, with a -400 Money Line at most books. That puts the Vikings at 80% or better to beat Oakland, but why take this risk in Week 3? In a big, big Survivor pool (500+ teams) or with multiple entries, I would take Minnesota for 20-33% of my entries (one of 3-5 entries) just in case Dallas or New England stumble and most of the pool is knocked out in one fell swoop, but the odds of Minnesota losing are much higher than the Cowboys or Patriots taking the loss this week. Plus there is that sinking feeling that deja vu could happen with the Vikings blowing another Week 3 game like they did last year with Buffalo, and that is a real possibility as Oakland does not look as bad as Miami or the Jets right now. All that said, "I Will Survive" said that Dallas was "Plan B", but it is far better to take them now and scratch using Dallas way out on Thanksgiving at home against a better-than-expected Buffalo Bills team. That pick can be changed, and in smaller pools, Week 13 may not even come into play. Take a much surer pick for Week 3 and do not worry about November in smaller pools.

The Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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