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Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Week 6 was yet another wild and wacky one, with favorites being toppled and teams who many were not fully convinced by delivering phenomenal performances. Week 7 promises to be every bit as intriguing, with several marquee match-ups. A theme you will notice as the weeks go on is the lines getting sharper or, to put it another way, more difficult to decipher due to the precision of the number.
The bye teams this week are Carolina, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-3.5) at DENVER (Over/Under 49)
Two teams trending in opposite directions meet in a suddenly intriguing Thursday Night Football clash. The only wrinkle is that the roles have been well and truly reversed; the Chiefs are stuttering horribly off a two-game losing streak, while the Broncos are bucking, wild and resurgent. Only two wins separate the teams in the standings, placing added importance on this crucial divisional clash that could turn the once 0-4 Broncos into division title contenders.
The line for this game reflects the respect Kansas City has accrued on its recent run, but this team has many flaws. Patrick Mahomes II’ ankle injury is clearly affecting his ability to extend plays and chuck balls downfield with timing and accuracy. The defense is not up to the task and lacks true difference makers. The offensive line is allowing a lot of pressure, exacerbating matters for the hobbled Mahomes. Denver has a prime opportunity on a short week to keep up the momentum.
Pick: Denver
MIAMI at BUFFALO (-17) (Over/Under 40)
The Bills have not been a 17-point favorite over an opponent, at least that I can recall, in… maybe forever. This is undoubtedly an unfamiliar position for the home team, who are coming off their bye and will welcome a weary and winless divisional opponent with open arms. Sean McDermott’s team is feisty, fearless and well able to take care of the hapless Dolphins, even with Josh Allen’s propensity for the turnover. Expect an ample helping of Frank Gore to wear down the Dolphins as the Bills defense tees off on (likely) Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Still, a 17-point spread seems generous – and perhaps excessive. Divisional games tend to bring out the best in players whose teams are perhaps in the doldrums. Fitzpatrick could provide some stability to the offense, even in the face of the vicious Bills pass rush. A back door cover of the spread is always in play, so take the points here and pray for a little Harvard-educated magic down the stretch.
Pick: Miami
JACKSONVILLE (-3) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 43.5)
Could things be any worse for first-time head coach Zac Taylor right now? Well, there is always the devastating injury to his starting quarterback which, thankfully, hasn’t happened, but his work is cut out for him. The Bengals are a franchise constantly drifting, like the last person standing in a game of musical chairs, unsure whether to stay standing or just crawl into a ball and give up. A.J. Green might be holding off on that return. The team may even dangle him as trade bait. In short, all is not well in Cincinnati.
As for the Jaguars, their promising start has petered out after consecutive losses to NFC South opponents. The Saints exposed the weaknesses in Gardner Minshew’s game at times last week, made even more compelling by the fact that the fans were handed out fake mustaches before the game. One would bet they were chafing after a while along with Minshew’s own facial hair as he dealt with the Saints pass rush. Fortunately, better times are ahead with the trip to Cincinnati. Leonard Fournette could top 200 yards rushing as the Jags grind out a much-needed victory.
Pick: Jacksonville
MINNESOTA (-1) at DETROIT (Over/Under 45)
The Lions will feel rightly aggrieved after a series of questionable penalties cost them on Monday night in Green Bay, but they can’t afford to dwell on the past. Matt Patricia will instead, one would suspect, use that us-against-them storyline to fire up his players for another pivotal division game. Detroit has turned a corner and their only losses have come to Kansas City (at the gun) and Green Bay (also at the gun), so that is nothing to be ashamed of. They are a well-rounded team capable of hanging in tough games.
Minnesota will provide that type of test this week, fresh off a comfortable yet highly impressive win at home against the Eagles. Kirk Cousins, no doubt in response to the critics, raised his game considerably. The Vikings are 5-6 against the spread as the road team since 2018 compared to 7-3-1 at home, and the likelihood is that Cousins will face a stiffer test against Detroit’s secondary. Jump on the Lions while they’re still getting points at home.
Pick: Detroit
OAKLAND at GREEN BAY (-6) (Over/Under 46)
Raider Nation will travel in huge numbers to Green Bay this week as a rare clash between classic franchises takes place. Jon Gruden’s team comes off the bye feeling good after wins against Indianapolis and Chicago, but a stern test awaits on this occasion. The Raiders have a plucky team, but will their talent be able to stand up in the pressure cooker environment of Lambeau Field?
The Packers have made a habit out of pressuring quarterbacks through the first few games, but Oakland’s passing attack has largely mitigated pressure with quick releases. Derek Carr has executed the offense precisely, but will he maintain that kind of accuracy and poise if the game script gets out of hand? Green Bay’s rushing offense has been a constant of their games this year. Expect their tandem backfield to control things and provide Aaron Rodgers with some favorable looks.
Pick: Green Bay
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 54)
Two of the NFC’s superpowers of recent times meet in Atlanta this week, with the loser facing a long road back to relevance. In fact, one could argue Atlanta has already reached that point at 1-5. Dan Quinn’s seat gets warmer by the day as results go against the Falcons. The good news is that Matt Ryan is playing some of the best football of his career; the bad is that it doesn’t matter when the defense is so poor.
The Rams haven’t been lighting the world on fire, certainly, but the fact that Vegas has made them road favorites speaks to the public’s lingering trust in Sean McVay and his team. Make no mistake: the 49ers punked the Rams last Sunday, delivering a clear message that the NFC West is theirs no longer. The 3-3 Rams desperately need to put on a performance here to quiet the doubters and get back on track, but a shootout could go either way. With the home team getting points, that has to be the play.
Pick: Atlanta
HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS (-1) (Over/Under 48)
In one of the most compelling clashes of the week, AFC South foes Houston and Indianapolis square off. This season, however, there is no Andrew Luck. That fact takes some of the gloss off the game, but Jacoby Brissett has stepped in and done an admirable job filling in. The Colts have been preparing for this game for two weeks – they are just off their bye – and you can bet Frank Reich has some nifty plays drawn up to attack Houston’s secondary.
Ultimately, what this game may come down to is how well Houston can protect Deshaun Watson against an Indianapolis pass rush that has been excellent this season. The Colts don’t have too many household names; what they do have is a buy-in across the board and discipline. The Texans offense has gotten hot in recent weeks, but they were all but shut down against Carolina in Week 4. Indianapolis’ game plan should revolve around taking away the big pass plays and trusting their front seven to get after Watson.
Pick: Indianapolis
SAN FRANCISCO (-10) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 41.5)
The 49ers are undefeated and will likely remain that way after this cupcake match-up against the Redskins. What was once billed as a marquee clash between historic franchises has been reduced to a one-sided affair. Kyle Shanahan has this team rolling, with a balanced offense complementing the ferocious Robert Saleh-coached defense to a 5-0 record. Jimmy Garoppolo may not have to push too hard in this contest as the rushing attack and defense carry the load.
Washington’s fortunes improved ever so slightly last week with a last-second win over the Dolphins, but they are still without a head coach and a direction. If last week is anything to go by, San Francisco can expect plenty of Adrian Peterson headed their way, but the Redskins offense is playing with one arm behind its back. Ten points is a lot to lay, but the 49ers are a far superior team.
Pick: San Francisco
ARIZONA at NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) (Over/Under 49)
The upward trajectory of No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray must be filling the Arizona faithful with joy right now. Murray is very much his own man as a quarterback, eschewing existing styles and relying on his innate ability to escape and create plays downfield. The result is a treat for the eyes, and Murray’s eyes may be lighting up as he studies the Giants defense this week. Football Outsiders has the home team as the 28th ranked pass defense, a statistic that will warm the hearts of Cardinals offensive coaches.
Of course, there is the small matter of a Giants offense that, off 10 days rest, could welcome back Sterling Shepard, Wayne Gallman, Evan Engram and, perhaps, even the inimitable Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones performed well under fire in New England considering the circumstances and the players missing. In what could be a shootout, the home team gets the edge. That total may creep up as the week goes on.
Pick: New York Giants
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at TENNESSEE (-2) (Over/Under 43.5)
This feels like a win or go home type of game for these teams, whose fortunes last week were nothing short of diabolical. The Chargers, beaten at home by a Steelers defense that showed no quit; the Titans, bereft of ideas and quarterbacks, getting shut out by the Broncos. The two-point line for the home team – normally the assumed value is three points for home advantage – would indicate Vegas slightly favor the road team.
Who the Titans start at quarterback in this game may not matter too much, what with the state of the Chargers defense. This unit lacks any venom and could be victimized by the Titans ground attack, which is likely to be relied upon heavily considering the Titans’ quarterback issues. Still, the Philip Rivers factor is what swings it here: he has the talent around him to pull one out of the fire. The smart move here, of course, is to avoid betting on this game at all.
Pick: Los Angeles
NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO (-3) (Over/Under 38.5)
The Saints have weathered the storm without Drew Brees perfectly, sailing to a 4-0 record behind a suffocating defense and a controlled offensive approach. Teddy Bridgewater has benefited from the excellent pass protection afforded by the Saints’ offensive line, but one thing to watch here is the health of Alvin Kamara, whose absence could be massive for the efficiency of the attack.
The Bears are fresh off their bye and have had ample time to prepare for all the Saints offense can offer but preparing and stopping are two very different things. Bridgewater is likely to face pressure against a strong Bears front seven, so this will be a fascinating test. Defensively, though, the Saints have every bit the hardiness and toughness that the Bears do. Grab the better team and the points.
Pick: New Orleans
BALTIMORE at SEATTLE (-3.5) (Over/Under 50.5)
Enjoy this one, ladies and gentlemen. Two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league face off in the form of Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Fireworks should ensue, especially if you believe the total that Vegas has set – a hefty 50.5 might even be conservative. Baltimore has taken care of business against teams they should beat – and they deserve credit for that – but a win here would be a real statement for John Harbaugh’s team.
Seattle has covered the spread as the home team a stunning 59.5% of the time since Pete Carroll took over, the third-best mark in the league. Toppling them has been a real challenge, in other words. Not many pundits spoke of Seattle as a contender for a bye prior to the season, but they are in the frame for one of the top two seeds. Handling Jackson defensively will be a challenge, but this team is used to practicing against a mobile passer. In a close game, though, the half-point is everything.
Pick: Baltimore
(Sunday Night) PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (-3) (Over/Under 48.5)
Jason Garrett could do his job security the world of good with a win on a big stage this Sunday. Jerry Jones loves nothing better than his team shining when the lights are brightest, after all. Many analysts are doubting the Cowboys after losses to quality teams in Green Bay and New Orleans, and another unexpected one to the Jets. And yet this feels like a get-right game for the home team, who will hope to have Amari Cooper back to exploit a weak Eagles secondary.
The Eagles played valiantly on Thursday night a couple of weeks back to upset the Packers. They will need a similarly abrasive performance on both sides of the ball to get the victory here. A loss for either team would not be disastrous considering the state of this division, but the Eagles will not want to get too far behind. The spot here favors the Cowboys.
Pick: Dallas
(Monday Night) NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) at NEW YORK JETS (Over/Under 42.5)
The return of Sam Darnold makes the Jets watchable again – and how. The young quarterback produced some special plays in a brave performance last week to remind the NFL just how talented he is. This showcase game against bitter rival New England should produce a fired-up home crowd, and the Jets could even keep things interesting with a good defensive performance.
The Patriots are being afforded a lot of respect with the 9.5-point line – and you can understand why – but this feels like a good spot for the Jets. New England has been spectacular defensively, but offensively things have not been quite as smooth. Even the Giants pass rush was able to create some chaos in the backfield for the Patriots last week; the Jets can do the same and keep this in the balance until the very end.
Pick: New York Jets
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Though we may have more clarity after two weeks of play, things are still developing in the 2019 story. Week 6 was a humbling one, but this week provides plenty of fascinating clashes to sink our teeth into. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and few open to teasers – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 DALLAS (-3) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- 2 NEW ORLEANS (+3) at CHICAGO
- 3 DETROIT (+1) vs. MINNESOTA
- 4 JACKSONVILLE (-3) at CINCINNATI
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 7 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- JACKSONVILLE (-3)
- DETROIT (+1)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (5.67-1 ODDS):
- DALLAS (-3)
- NEW ORLEANS (+3)
- DETROIT (+1)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Dallas, New Orleans, Detroit, Jacksonville
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-7
- SEASON OVERALL: 48-44 (52%) (total games played in 2019: 92)
- BEST BETS: 10-11 (47%), last week 2-2
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 14-12 (54%), last week 2-2
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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