How to Attack Your Small-League Non-PPR Draft

Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

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Small leagues are a lot of fun. There is something about the size of 8- or 10-team leagues that make them enjoyable. Maybe, it is having a team full of very good players. The size of these types of leagues makes them much different than the standard 12-team leagues. Just like with the larger or two-quarterback leagues, it is a losing proposition to use standard draft strategies. An entirely different strategy is required to make the most of the draft. This article will specifically look at 10-team leagues using non-PPR scoring. We will examine strategies specially designed for the smaller leagues in order to best attack the draft and get the most from the roster. This will help you form a new strategy for your small-sized league.

Down to basics, what are the differences to know about the small leagues?

• a. Since there are no scarcity issues, everything is about the studs. The whole draft is focused on how to select enough elite players to win weekly and through the playoffs. It is only through the studs that an owner can gain an edge over his leaguemates. The top two or three players at each position outscore the rest by tremendous amounts.
• b. Knowing how to best attack the quarterback position is one of the biggest keys to small leagues. Is it necessary to select a passer early in the draft like in the bigger leagues?
• c. The running back position is one where the drop-off in expected production comes earlier in 2019 than in years gone by, especially in non-PPR leagues. How can I take advantage of this phenomena?
• d. With only fifty wide receivers rostered, on average, how do we gain an edge?
• e. Is there is a valid reason to take a kicker or team defense early?

How to best address the questions above?

a. Since you need studs to gain advantages, how best do you go about drafting these players? The top players at every position give their owners a huge edge. The best way to get these studs is to be proactive in your draft. When the value stagnates at one position, look for studs at another. In the table below, we can see how the top wideouts (DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones) have a similar value to a large tier of backs, and the next receivers are not far behind. So, why not gain an edge at receiver and select a similar rusher next round? It pays to be proactive and look for talent plateaus and drop-offs. Seek out studs. A top kicker or defense might be a great pick earlier than you would think, especially if they give you an edge of a few points each week.

b. In smaller (8 or 10 teams) leagues which start only one passer, there is no reason to address the position before the tenth round unless you get a stud at an outstanding value. There will be great fantasy quarterbacks available. In smaller leagues, owners want to wait on a quarterback (because there are so many good options) which makes the good passers drop further. So, wait on a quarterback and try to find studs at other positions. It is best to wait until there are at least eight quarterbacks off the board before even looking at selecting a passer. You may even want to consider waiting until some teams start taking backups and take two of the tier with Drew Brees, Kyler Murray, and Ben Roethlisberger.

c. We will look a little later at how the weighted values are heavily slanted toward the backs. The ball carriers have a huge VBD value edge over the other positions, so it is best to lock up as many top rushers as possible. The expected fantasy production for the top players at the position has definite tiers. But even the lesser fantasy starters are worth more than every quarterback – yes, even Patrick Mahomes II - and every tight end, even Travis Kelce.

d. Unless going after a bona fide stud (e.g., Hopkins, Jones, or Tyreek Hill), it is best to wait on the wide receiver position until 10 or 15 are off the board. There is very little difference in expected production – especially in non-PPR leagues - so you might as well stock up on the position (running back) where you gain an advantage.

e. There are at least 10 good kickers and team defenses, so every team can have a good option. You should employ one of two strategies for the kicker position. Either take a stud earlier than you would think or wait until 10 are gone. The stud gives you an extra few points per game, so it is a viable strategy. Also, target kickers with the starting gig locked up, on high scoring offenses, and a late bye week. For the team defense position, it is best to play matchups with a smaller league. There will be plenty of good options available on the waiver wire each week from which to choose. Many times, it is better to have a mediocre defense with a great matchup than a good defense with a mediocre matchup. If your leaguemates look to employ this same approach, too, be prepared to pick up defenses a week before needed, even if this strategy uses two roster spots at times.

When we look at the VBD (Value-Based Drafting) application, we quickly realize how valued the running backs are when compared to the other positions. The VBD accounts for positional scarcity and available options at other positions using the Footballguys.com projections. Amazingly, there are just one quarterback and one tight end valued in the first two rounds. If we look at just the first two rounds of a 10-team draft (in terms of VBD), an even distribution of nine running backs and nine wide receivers are worth a pick.

Here are the league variables:

• 10 teams
• 16 roster spots
• Non-PPR scoring

And here are the starting requirements:

• 1 Quarterback
• 2 Running Backs
• 3 Wide Receivers
• 1 Tight End
• 1 Flex (RB, WR, or TE)
• 1 Kicker
• 1 Team Defense

The depth at the quarterback and wide receiver positions means that a fantasy owner can afford to wait on those positions while stocking up on rushers. It is obvious looking at the table below that smaller leagues dictate a strong nucleus of running backs.

The table above represents the Top 50 players in terms of VBD. There are a few things that jump out as obvious items of note. As discussed above, the value of studs is immense, especially at the running back position. Notice the VBD values for the four top players in comparison to the rest of the players, even very good players. Also, as we progress to the 50th overall player, the wide receivers are barely lagging the running backs, and we will see them start catching up in the table below.

When looking at the VBD spots from player 51 through 100, the wide receivers begin catching up, the value at quarterback and tight end is still apparent. As discussed above, having studs is the only way to gain an advantage. For this reason, an owner who loads up on running backs early can still get studs at the other positions through the first 10 rounds. This is the reason kickers are actually a decent play when the value running back and wideout positions plateau.

Every league is different, but this article should help you form a winning strategy in smaller leagues. The ability to start three running backs in leagues not rewarding points for receptions slants the weighting toward the ball carriers.

Feel free to (email me) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.