Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Let's examine what we think of players with the preseason over and the season ahead.
- For And Against Todd Gurley And LeSean McCoy
- For Real/Fool's Good: Rookie Edition
- Great Week/Great Year?
- Bad Week/Bad Year?
Let's roll...
For And Against Todd Gurley And LeSean McCoy
Matt Waldman: Todd Gurley was one of the most polarizing fantasy commodities of the summer while many figured LeSean McCoy had little to offer until he landed in Kansas City less than two weeks ago. Now that we've seen their 2019 debuts, let's play a little game...
- Supply BOTH sides of the argument for and against Gurley and McCoy as a viable starter in lineups using two running backs.
- Share whether you're buying or selling each runner.
To get things started, I was the highest on staff with my rankings of both runners. After watching Gurley on Sunday, I believe he performed well enough that his 60/40 workload split is on the lower side of the Rams distribution plans for the season because the Rams had a 13-point lead for much of the game and it was Gurley's first live-action all year. Now that the Rams eased Gurley into playing time, I expect a distribution closer to 65-70 percent and more red-zone touches.
This is lower than the near 80 percent share of the running back workload Gurley has earned in the past under Sean McVay when healthy, but it remains enough volume for Gurley to deliver no worse than top-15 production at this position. Considering how efficient Gurley was with his carries against a pretty good Panthers defense, I'm less alarmed about Malcolm Brown's workload. Last year, there were two games while Gurley was still healthy where Brown earned at least a 40 percent share of the workload. Both were contests where the Ram had solid leads early in the game like what we saw on Sunday.
Taking the opposite end of the Gurley argument, the 60/40 distribution between Gurley and Brown could be a best-case for Gurley if the Rams continue winning and Brown performs as he's capable. At this point, the drafting of Gurley as a second-round pick turns into an investment with no upside and several avenues that lead to a potential downside.
Brown is well-suited as a red-zone. He's a big, strong, and bruising runner with underrated short-area quickness and patience. He's essentially a better-conditioned C.J. Anderson and the Detroit Lions pegged Brown as its first choice during free agency until the Rams matched the deal and Detroit "settled" for Anderson.
Gurley's red zone opportunities not only created the potential for elite fantasy totals but also buoyed his production during sub-par yardage performances. Brown's role could eliminate this safety net for Gurley's fantasy production. If the Rams jump to early leads we could see Brown relegate Gurley to minimal touches and lots of bench time to keep Gurley fresh for closer games, tough matchups, and the playoffs.
If this is the case, Gurley may earn a lot of touches in tougher matchups but we lose out on his potential to have stellar weeks against the easiest opponents. And of course, there's the arthritic knee. Gurley looked good this week but there was a run where I wondered if he would have transformed the play into a breakaway effort a year or two ago. While this thought is purely speculative about his acceleration, we know that his knee is a ticking time bomb for his career—we just don't know the length of the fuse.
I buying Gurley if I can get him for the price of a fantasy RB2 or RB3 in three-back formats. I might go as high as offering a receiver like Tyrell Williams and maybe a key reserve for my opponent's roster. I'd also consider offering a top tight end like Zach Ertz or George Kittle if I had T.J. Hockenson or Darren Waller.
Let's hear your thoughts on Gurley.
Daniel Simpkins Matt, are you really making us go full Skip Bayless and asking us to debate ourselves?
Waldman: I was thinking more like your grandpa when he's grumpy and grandma told him to take out the trash, but I suppose Bayless is that guy too.
Simpkins: Ok, I’ll play along, but you won’t get me into one of those hideous suits he wears.
Despite limited usage in week one, Gurley is still going to be fine for fantasy in the long-term. Matt shared some excellent clips in his Top 10 article that show that Gurley is physically sound again and not limited to straight-line running, as he seemed to be after last year’s knee injury sustained in the Chiefs game. It’s likely that the coaching staff is just easing him back in after he did not play the entire preseason. Perhaps tempering expectations for the next couple of weeks will help fantasy general managers to get through this rough patch of production until he is up to speed.
The fear with Gurley is that the coaching staff got a wake-up call when he was injured and could not play to the effectiveness that he had enjoyed previously. They saw what their offense would be like without him and they decided that they should do everything possible to extend his career. As part of that plan, they extended Malcolm Brown to be the short-term committee option and drafted Darrell Henderson to be the long-term committee option. The days of Gurley being a true feature back are behind him.
I buy the former argument over the latter one. That means I’m trying to buy low on Gurley before his usage creeps back closer to what it was last year.
Andy Hicks: The pro argument is fairly straight forward. The Rams are saving Todd Gurley and using other backs to spread the load.
As we saw unfold last season, he wore down. This year, he will be managed and be used to maybe 80-90 percent of his previous usage. With well over 20-23 touches a game previously I would expect that to drop to somewhere between 18-20 a game. Because Gurley is one of the best backs in the league, what he does with those touches still easily makes him a starting running back.
The against argument relies on his lack of red-zone touches, the competent supporting cast, and his potential to wear down again. All fine if the Rams are winning games easily and cruising to the playoffs.
I would be buying Gurley as long as there was a reasonable seller. Gurley is one of the best backs in the league and will see more touches than all but a handful of backs. While his touchdowns may not be at the stratospheric number of years gone by he is going to be a clear fantasy starter if not potential league winner. A 10 percent drop in his stats from last year, still would have ranked him third. A 20 percent drop still would have resulted in a fifth-place finish. This is despite Gurley missing two games and playing hampered in others.
Dan Hindery: Based upon what we saw Week 1, Gurley has to be in your starting lineup unless your roster is incredibly loaded. He played 70 percent of the snaps and ran a route on 71 percent of the passing plays. Those are both solid numbers.
The fact that Goff only targeted him once is a bit concerning but unless we see that become a trend, we can write it off as a bit fluky considering how often Gurley was running routes. The lack of goal-line usage is also easy to write off as fluky. Malcolm Brown got most of the looks around the end zone but that was because he saw work in two complete drives and those ended with goalline opportunities.
Brown didn't sub in at the goal line for Gurley on any of Gurley's drives and Gurley still managed 97 yards despite touching it only 14 times. We can feel fairly confident he is going to get into the end zone at a decent rate moving forward.
I can’t make the argument for benching Gurley at this point. At the very least, he is a solid RB2. However, I am selling if I can get anywhere near what his value was in drafts a couple of weeks ago.
There is no reason to panic about Gurley being a huge fantasy bust. Still, the very early returns point to him likely being more of a solid RB2 than an elite RB1 and not fully living up to his ADP.
It’s been almost nine months since we last saw the Rams feed Gurley a bunch of touches in a game. We can shrug off any single game with excuses but as it happens, again and again, we should probably just assume Gurley is a 15-touch-per-game-back until we see some proof he isn’t.
Waldman: Love the context behind the red-zone touches for Brown, Dan. I didn't even consider that point.
Will Grant: To land Gurley, you had to spend at least a second-round pick—often a first. He was on the field for 70 percent of the offensive snaps for the Rams so the opportunity is there. Given how he finished last season and the easy workload he had over the summer, it makes sense that they would pull him near the goal line to 'ease' him back into the season. He's on the field and will get more opportunities as the season progresses. Be patient.
As others have said, I don't think you can bench him unless you are in a 10-team league and have other alternatives. Earning 15 touches isn't what you hoped it would be but you have to look at this as the absolute floor. Even with those limited touches, he had 100 yards from scrimmage. The only way that you bench him at this point is if you think that volume will decline, which I don't see.
Hold Steady is my official answer. I suppose if I could convince someone to trade him for Tarik Cohen or Rex Burkhead, I'd consider it but the reality is Gurley owners aren't selling him for anything less than 2nd round value. That means they'll want a guy like Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette as a return pick and If I have either of those guys, I'm not giving them up for Gurley right now. If I had Gurley and someone offered me Cook or Fournette, I'd probably take it.
Maurile Tremblay: The argument for Gurley is that in his four years in the league, he has three top-five fantasy finishes at his position, including number-one finishes in each of the past two seasons. He's in a high-powered offense that will have a lot of red zone opportunities, and Gurley is a terrific goal-line runner.
The argument against Gurley is that his knee went haywire at the end of last season, and it may happen again. In the meantime, in order to reduce the risk of recurrence, the Rams will apparently give him a reduced workload compared to past seasons. In Week 1, he had only 15 touches. He looked strong on those touches. He can be a viable fantasy starter on 15 touches a week, but it will be as an RB2 rather than an RB1. It's also a bad sign that Malcolm Brown, not Gurley, got the close-range touchdowns.
I'm buying for the right price. Some of his owners are panicking based on Week 1, but I liked what I saw from him, and I expect the Rams to use Gurley on the goal line in most cases. That's how they'll maximize their chance of scoring.
Chad Parsons: The supportive argument for Todd Gurley includes his track record as not an RB1, but THE RB1 in all of fantasy. Gurley is a special talent on a strong offense and his snap count and efficiency in Week 1 was encouraging he is good to go (or at least more than late last season) physically.
The counterargument is that Malcolm Brown (who is a legit talent in his own right) looked fantastic near the goal line and earned two touchdowns. Also, Gurley was not used in the passing game. If short-range touchdown opportunities are limited AND Gurley is not a high volume receiver, he is destined for RB2-land this season. I am one of the biggest Malcolm Brown fans out there (own him in more than 40 percent of my dynasty leagues), but think health is the only thing between Gurley and a top-8 to top-10 fantasy season in 2019.
Waldman: Excellent. Let's do the same for LeSean McCoy.
I had McCoy as a top-20 fantasy runner as soon as he landed in Kansas City. It's difficult for many to separate a running back from his offensive line when analyzing the runner. However, if you watch how McCoy set up blocks or managed his decision-making behind a Bills' offensive line that no longer had the personnel that made it and McCoy one of the top running games in the NFL prior to Sean McDermott's head coaching tenure, you could see evidence that McCoy still had potential to be a productive running back.
The fact that Andy Reid and the Chiefs could separate process from outcome when studying McCoy and immediately signed him to a one-year, $4 million deal indicates that they believe he'll be Kansas City's best backfield weapon soon enough. McCoy made better decisions than Damien Williams this weekend and outproduced Williams despite a week of acclimation to the system—a scheme that has some similarities to what McCoy did in Philadelphia under Reid but not as similar as many claimed.
Because Reid has a penchant for leaning on one excellent back when he has one, there's an opportunity for McCoy to shut the door on the competition and take over as the feature back this year while the Chiefs are in a window of contention for an AFC Championship. However, Reid is usually patient enough to continue with a committee for 3-5 weeks before making the call.
Knowing that Reid will allow his backs to compete, Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson have the talent to force a committee with McCoy if McCoy lacks the stamina and special sauce he once had to deliver elite performances week after week and manage a high volume of touches. While I'm not a believer in Williams as anything more than a competent NFL running back, that's enough for solid RB2 production or low-end RB1 PPR production in this offense.
Thompson earned minimal touches this week but if Williams and/or McCoy falter, Reid will give Tompson an opportunity. Reid did this in the past with Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, Damien, and Darrel Williams.
As mentioned, I'm on the McCoy side of the argument and if I find myself weak at running back, I'd value McCoy as a fantasy RB2 with hidden upside. It means that I'd try to acquire him at an RB3 value but I'd potentially pay RB2 capital if I had the depth live with that expense because I think there's a viable scenario where Reid makes McCoy the feature back and he delivers 1,500-1,600 total yards and double-digit touchdown totals as a surprise RB1 in his last hurrah.
I don't want to count that on that possibility but if the RB market is thin and I don't want to wait because I believe my trade bait will turn into rotten pumpkins soon, then I might take the chance, knowing that I usually can build contenders with strong talent at other positions while living with my best back having low-end RB2 value.
Chad, where do you stand on McCoy?
Parsons: LeSean McCoy is a top-flight talent and moves to the friendly confines of an Andy Reid offense. Even with limited time with the team, McCoy was highly involved in Week 1 and effective.
On the downside, Damien Williams took much of the passing game work, which would be a limiting element to McCoy's upside. I side on McCoy taking over as the clear preferred back in terms of snaps and total touches within the next week or two.
Williams will spell McCoy and probably have more catches. However, there is plenty of juice in the Chiefs offense to support McCoy in the RB10-18 range and Williams as a flex option.
Tremblay: The argument for McCoy is that whoever lines up in the Chiefs' backfield is going to score a lot of fantasy points, and McCoy may be the best running back they've got. He had significantly more success than Damien Williams in Week 1 (8.1 yards per rush compared to 2.0, and 12.0 yards per target compared to 6.5). Andy Reid will go with the hot hand, and if you believe that McCoy is a better running back than Williams, you can expect him to settle in as a top-20 fantasy RB.
The argument against McCoy is age. He was largely ineffective in Buffalo last year, and 31-year-old running backs seldom find rejuvenation in the NFL. He looked good in Week 1 on a small sample of runs, but as the wear and tear accumulate over multiple games, he'll remain behind Damien Williams in the rotation.
It's why I'm selling McCoy. Damien Williams had a rough Week 1, but he'll bounce back, and I don't think McCoy will get enough touches in Kansas City to be a consistent fantasy starter.
Grant: McCoy is back with Andy Reid and hungry to show he can still play. The Chiefs were not completely sold on Damien Williams anyway, and his stock was falling at the end of the summer. McCoy won't get 25 touches a game, but in a KC offense that looks like it could average 35 points per week again this season, there will be plenty of action to go around.
In Buffalo, he was the starter and people were still looking at him as an RB3 / Flex. Why did that change when he went to a team with a clear starting running back in Williams and a young guy like Darwin Thompson who is more suited to be the future of the franchise than McCoy is? McCoy's upside is capped and he's not a guy you can count on from week to week. He'll do just enough to make you wish you had stated someone else, but not enough to make you want to trade or drop him.
It's why I'm selling him. The Chiefs embarrassed the Jaguars last week and McCoy had just 11 touches. I see nothing that convinces me he'll suddenly go to 15 or 20 a game. He's good insurance for the Chiefs in case Williams or Thompson go down to injury but unless that happens, or you have a deep fantasy roster, I'd rather take a chance on a guy with some upside.
Hindery: The biggest argument in favor of McCoy is simply that he is a part of the best offense in football. The Chiefs scored 66 offensive touchdowns last season.
In Week 1, they went on the road to face a talented Jacksonville defense and scored four offensive touchdowns while racking up 491 yards. There are going to be yards and touchdowns to go around given the huge offensive pie.
The optimistic view of McCoy’s Week 1 performance hinges things on two things. First, he was a much more efficient runner than Damien Williams, gaining 55 more yards on the ground despite three fewer carries. He looked like he still had plenty of burst and he probably earned more carries in subsequent weeks from his performance.
Second, while McCoy only played 29 percent of the snaps, we can make a solid argument that is only because he signed with the Chiefs approximately one week before the game and still didn’t know the entire playbook. It is easy to see his share of snaps rising.
The pessimistic view of McCoy would be that it is possible we don’t see a big change in the distribution of snaps or offensive roles we saw in Week 1. Damien Williams played 66 percent of the snaps, which is typical for Reid's starting running backs.
Williams also saw six targets to just one for McCoy and the biggest strength of Williams’ game is as a pass-catcher. Williams also received the short-yardage and goal-line carries, another role he has handled well. If the roles don’t change much and McCoy doesn’t get the goal-line work or a big number of targets, it is hard to get too excited. Even averaging 8.1 yards per carry, he still finished as just the RB30 (PPR scoring) last week.
As long as the price is right, I am buying any and all pieces of this Chiefs offense, including McCoy. It isn’t crazy to set a baseline expectation of four offensive touchdowns and 425 yards from this offense heading into each game. It is hard to figure out exactly how this backfield will play out but McCoy has a reasonable path to a featured role, either through injury to Williams or by simply earning more playing time at Williams' expense.
Hicks: There is no doubt that LeSean McCoy is a better fantasy option in Kansas City than in Buffalo, despite a likely drop in touches. To be a fantasy starter in two-back leagues last year required less than 10 fantasy points a game. McCoy did that in his first game and has significant room for more touches, receptions, and touchdowns.
Damien Williams and the other backs are clearly not in the same class as McCoy, so best back sees the most points. The against argument relies on his age being an issue and the presence of Damien Williams stealing his touches and touchdowns.
I would clearly be buying McCoy while he can be acquired at below his value. We saw ample evidence in week one that McCoy has better vision and more adaptability in an offense that will allow him more room than he has seen since his Eagle days.
Simpkins: McCoy is in one of the best offenses in football. Despite not being the running back he once was, like Frank Gore, McCoy understands the nuances of the position to such a degree that he can compensate for his diminished athleticism.
Damien Williams is really just a guy and Darwin Thompson, while talented, is not ready to take on a featured role with this team. Williams and Thompson will get work, but that work will decrease as time passes because the team will see that McCoy offers the best value per touch of any of the three.
Still, there's an argument that McCoy’s skills have diminished significantly from where they were even three years ago. He’s in a three-headed committee with Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson that will limit his touches and upside, despite being in a good offense. McCoy will be the victim of irrational coaching and, while he will have good weeks, he is not trustworthy as a fantasy starter.
Once again, I’m taking the former argument. I’m buying McCoy wherever I can. If I’m hard-up at running back, I’ll look to trade someone like D.K. Metcalf or Cortland Sutton-- guys who had good weeks but probably will not be consistently steady producers.
For Real/Fool's Gold: Rookie Edition
Waldman: Explain which end of the spectrum you fall on four of these Week 1 performers. We're making these calls based on fantasy value as no worse than a consistent flex play in 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 TE lineups in PPR.
- A.J. Brown
- Gardner Minshew
- Marquise Brown
- T.J. Hockenson
- Devin Singletary
- Kyler Murray
- DK Metcalf
- Terry McLaurin
Feel free to comment on talent and skill if you wish.
Hindery: A.J. Brown Brown was my favorite wide receiver prospect in this draft and I believe in him as a player. His size, power, hands, quickness, and ability to make plays after the catch are all strong. We saw those positive attributes on his two long catches in Week 1.
The concern all along has been about his fantasy upside in this 2019 Titans offense. Julio Jones is arguably the best receiver in the NFL and he averaged 1.94 fantasy points (PPR) per target catching passes from Matt Ryan last year. Even if we act on the assumption Brown is a top receiver and can rack up Julio Jones type numbers on a per-target basis, he still needs to average 7-to-8 targets per game to have any real fantasy upside.
Can he get there in this Titans offense? Tennessee threw the ball just 24 times in Week 1, rotated heavily at the skill positions, and spread the ball around. This is going to be an extremely run-heavy offense and Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, Adam Humphries, Dion Lewis, and others are going to get their looks. For now, I will continue to view Brown as a better football player than a fantasy option.
Gardner Minshew looked surprisingly good in relief of Nick Foles last week. The NFL didn’t look too big for him, which is half the battle for a young quarterback. He should be able to keep the Jaguars afloat while Nick Foles is out. However, from a fantasy perspective, he isn’t worth rostering, much less starting, in single quarterback leagues. The Jaguars were in catch-up mode and Minshew faced prevent the defense from the Chiefs for most of the second half, which allowed him to post decent stats. In more competitive games, Jacksonville is going to lean on Leonard Fournette and the running game.
The consensus from the draft community was that Hockenson was an elite, can't-miss prospect. He earned glowing reviews throughout training camp and the Detroit coaches weren’t shy about saying he wasn’t going to be eased in like the typical rookie tight end. We saw just how big a part of this offense he will be in his monster 6-131-1 Week 1 debut. At this point, I would be surprised if Hockenson wasn’t a top-10 fantasy tight end as a rookie. He's for real.
Devin Singletary Singletary will fly under the radar for many because he only had four carries in Week 1 while Frank Gore had 10. However, Singletary was on the field for 70 percent of the snaps. That’s a huge number for a rookie in his first NFL action. For comparison’s sake, Josh Jacobs (72 percent) was the only other rookie back to come close to that amount of playing time.
Singletary was also a big part of the passing game, catching 5-of-6 targets. His receiving ability is going to make him a real fantasy asset in PPR leagues. He put up 14.8 fantasy points and finished as the RB15 in Week 1 on just nine total touches. Plus, it seems inevitable that Singletary is going to get a lot more work as a runner moving forward. He ran for 70 yards on his 4 carries while Gore managed just 20 yards on his 11 carries. Singletary is a viable RB2 fantasy option and the RB15 finish Week 1 wasn't fluky.
Hicks: Once LeSean McCoy was cut it was obvious that Devin Singletary was going to have a significant role and after what we saw in week one it is only a matter of time until Singletary is seeing at least 50 percent of the touches. Four carries for 70 yards doesn’t seem like a lot to base that on, but every one of those carries was for at least 10 yards and he showed great vision and ability. Frank Gore had 11 carries for 20 yards, with nine of those carries totaling four yards. Singletary also saw six targets as a receiver. If that doesn’t scream starting running back, I don’t know what does.
Due to his lack of practice during the preseason, Marquise Brown only saw 12 snaps against the Dolphins. Once the game was in the bag, basically at the coin toss, the Ravens shut Brown down. What he did in his limited time immediately demonstrated his use for the team that was supposed to be running the ball 70 percent of the time. John Harbaugh will do what it takes to win. What little we did see also demonstrated apparent chemistry with Lamar Jackson as well. Now, we have to see how Brown does against a real NFL defense, so while the week one game showed a WR1 type player, his true upside is probably closer to WR3 at the moment with the upside for more.
It was clear that the Titans had a high opinion of A.J. Brown all through training camp and preseason and while his week one performance was pleasing it came off of only four targets. Corey Davis will not be held to zero catches again this season and Brown will still have a lot of development. For now, I would be cautious in recommending him as a starter and maybe even a flex option until we have a few games under his belt. My long term prognosis for Brown is still strong and through various vacillations, he ended up as my top rookie receiver for the 2019 season in redraft leagues. Still on track.
Following the departure of Josh Doctson, it was apparent that McLaurin was in for a better than expected, at least by the fantasy community, season. McLaurin had been the buzz of camp and despite the quarterback situation and lack of optimism surrounding the team, there were clear signs that McLaurin would be heavily involved. Moving forward he projects as a 1000 yard receiver, which means he should be a nice fantasy option. Probably bottom end WR2, top-end WR3 depending on his touchdown numbers
Grant: Gardner Minshew is for real with the note that it's still Jacksonville and Nick Foles wasn't a typical starting quality fantasy quarterback in most leagues—so Minshew shouldn't be either. The rookie can play— and he looked pretty solid given the 'in case of emergency, break glass' situation he was thrown into. In a two-QB Superflex league, he's worth a starting position. In a standard league, he's nothing more than a backup quarterback who you're 0nly looking to play during a bye week.
T.J. Hockeson is also for real. The Lions have needed a tight end since forever, and it looks like they found him. Hockenson was on the field for most of the game, and while the swiss cheese Arizona defense probably padded his stats a little, Hockenson looked good and played well. You can pencil him in for 4-5 catches a week which is great for a rookie tight end and should be solid value for your fantasy team.
Kyler Murray is Fool's Gold. On quarter production during a comeback doesn't turn someone into a fantasy stud. It was Detroit, Arizona was at home, and Murray had the overtime stats to help his numbers look better than they were. This week against Baltimore, you're going to see very different results.
A.J. Brown is Fool's Gold. His catches for 100 yards sort of seems impressive until you see that the entire offense had less than 250 total passing yards. Marcus Mariota threw just 24 passes last week and only completed 14 of them. With guys like Delanie Walker and Corey Davis on the team, what are the most passes Brown can expect in a week? Five? Maybe? I like the kid, but he's not a fantasy starter. Not yet.
Parsons: I am bullish on Devin Singletary, T.J. Hockenson, and Kyler Murray. Singletary had a high snap count in Week 1 and will get every opportunity to be a top-20 fantasy back this season. Frank Gore was already in "secondary-back mode" during Singletary's debut.
Hockenson looked the part of the first game. I thought Jesse James may ease the rookie into high snaps and targets, but Hockenson is too good to be tempered and will be a top-15 fantasy tight end this year if not higher.
Murray got off to a sluggish start as the Cardinals offense looked asleep for more than a half in his debut. However, once Murray came alive, they were tough to stop. The most promising aspect was Murray won from the pocket with power and accuracy with his mobility, a valuable weapon, a minimal factor in the Cardinals' comeback.
In the fool's gold category I will include A.J. Brown, at least for this season. I love Brown as a prospect, but with Corey Davis a blue-chip player, Delanie Walker back, and tempered expectations for Marcus Mariota to fuel more than two fantasy viable targets, Brown will be a best-ball option and not consistent enough for lineups in stock leagues.
Simpkins: I’ve long thought A.J. Brown was the best receiver in this rookie class, even before he landed with my favorite team. He got a chance to prove it in his debut. When the Browns focused the bulk of their pass coverage attention on Corey Davis, Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith wisely pivoted to Delanie Walker and Brown.
Brown and Tajae Sharpe played interchangeably and Sharpe out-snapped Brown 49 percent to 43 percent. Despite limited playing time, Brown was the most targeted player outside of Delanie Walker.
Now that the genie is out of the bottle, I expect Sharpe’s usage to continue to decline significantly to the point he is getting just a few snaps per game and Brown’s usage to creep closer to Davis’. A.J. Brown is for real. I doubt the Titans offense will always be this explosive, but Brown will be a high-upside flex play on most weeks.
Marquise Brown is also for real and I’m fine with putting him in my lineup confidently as a WR2. I know people balk at the DeSean Jackson comparisons for Brown. It’s true, they are not identical players. However, there are stylistic elements to Brown’s game that you can’t help but compare to Jackson. In contrast to large portions of last year, the Ravens are going to be a fun team to watch this year, in large part because of Brown.
Hockenson reminds me now of what Delanie Walker has become since leaving San Francisco and arriving in Tennessee—a player that doesn’t wow you with David Njoku-like measurables but is a consistently better route technician and blocker. The Lions value his ability to block, but like Walker, they value his ability as a pass-catcher to a greater degree. I am generally hesitant to anoint rookie tight ends as fantasy starters, but I believe Hockenson has already climbed into that role.
D.K. Metcalf's stat-lines are sure to be up and down from week to week with the limited pass volume in this offense, but it’s evident that there is already a connection between him and Russell Wilson. I’m starting him as my third wide receiver with confidence.
Tremblay: A.J. Brown is for real. He looks like the Titans' best wide receiver already. Corey Davis is a fine blocker, but he was invisible as a receiver in Week 1. I have no idea about Gardner Minshew, but I'm picking him up where I can just in case. Ever since Kurt Warner's breakout season, I can't completely dismiss hot debut performances from quarterbacks who come out of nowhere.
Marquise Brown is for real as an NFL player but currently overvalued, if not entirely Fool's Gold, as a fantasy player. There won't be enough high-quality targets each week for him to provide solid fantasy value.
T.J. Hockenson is for real. This kid can play. He's the most dynamic receiver on the team at any position. I thought he'd be a year away, but it sure looks like I was wrong.
Waldman: T.J. Hockenson earned the highest grade I've given a tight end since the Rookie Scouting Portfolio updated its scoring system 4-5 years ago. After watching how the Lions used him, it's clear that he'll be a lead blocker and weapon in the flats as well as up the seams. Most NFL defenses are vulnerable in these areas of the field, which are Hockenson's strengths as a receiver. Stafford also trusts Hockenson in the red zone. This was true in training camp where he dominated and on a scramble drill against the Cardinals in Week 1. He's for real.
A.J. Brown is for real despite the paltry totals. The Browns' high volume of penalties aided Tennessee's ability to sustain its ground game and lowered the number of times Marcus Mariota had to throw the ball. Watching Brown beat a bracket coverage with Denzel Ward and a safety over the top was a revelation to anyone who was skeptical about his route running ability. A little known fact is that our Maurile Tremblay played some wide receiver in college with none other than former NFL head coach Jim Schwartz as a teammate. If Maurile thinks Brown is for real, who am I to disagree?
D.K. Metcalf is for real because he'll be used in ways that will match his talents. Right now, he needs work with hard breaks that work back to the quarterback, but Seattle will use him on routes where the breaks aren't as demanding. They'll also run him across the field where his speed and power will bedevil corners trying to defend passes from trail position—if they can catch him after biting on play-action that sets these plays up. My only concern about Metcalf is an injury.
I'm undecided on Kyler Murray but if I have to make a call, it's For Real as a fantasy quarterback and Fool's Gold as a rookie quarterback. He'll deliver as a garbage-time producer much like Blake Bortles circa Jacksonville. However, he's going to experience a lot of moments with bad decision-making that will wreck his team's chances of creating or sustaining leads.
I did not get to see Gardner Minshew, Terry McLaurin, or Devin Singletary. They'll be on my list this weekend.
Great Week/Great Year?
Waldman: Of the Week 1 studs listed below, pick two that merely had a great week as a top-10 option at their position and pick two that you believe will have a great year as a top-10 option for the rest of the season.
- Lamar Jackson
- Matthew Stafford
- Dak Prescott
- Sammy Watkins
- John Ross
- D.J. Chark, Jr.
- Michael Gallup
- Vernon Davis
- Jimmy Graham
Who showed they are on track for a great year and who merely had a good week?
Andy Hicks: Jimmy Graham had a great week, but at this stage of his career will be heavily touchdown-dependent for fantasy success. Three receptions for thirty yards probably isn’t going to be enough to be a reliable fantasy starter. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been consistently getting the ball to Tight Ends in the past and I cannot see that changing this year. Starting Graham seems to be a hope for the best option, rather than a consistent winning move.
Vernon Davis took advantage of the absence of Jordan Reed and a lucky missed tackle or two to make a long touchdown run. Outside that, he had three catches for 11 yards. Reed is often missing in action, but he was last year as well and Davis only managed 25 catches for 367 yards. At his age and the usage that Washington will give him if he is the unquestioned starter, Davis is only 'great week' material.
It has been clear for years that Dak Prescott is a starting fantasy quarterback. In his first three seasons, he has finished as a fantasy starter and should do again this year. Amari Cooper had a full offseason with the team, Michael Gallup has improved rapidly, Jason Witten has returned and Ezekiel Elliott will keep the opposing defenses from attacking the passing game with any real zeal. A four-touchdown, 400-yard passing game indicates his numbers will rapidly rise into a top-six fantasy quarterback.
Sometimes fantasy managers overthink things. Find a starting receiver in a prolific offense. Draft him. The absence of Tyreek Hill for a few weeks will make Sammy Watkins even more valuable. Ranking Watkins as a bottom end WR3 was silly in hindsight. Watkins won’t have 200-yard games with three touchdowns every week and more than likely not again this season, but when he is at full health he shows why he was the first wide receiver drafted in the great receiver class of 2014.
Tremblay: Lamar Jackson will have a great year. He won't always do it with his arm. He'll have a number of weeks where he produces as many fantasy points as a rusher as he does as a passer. But his multi-dimensional talent will make him a solid fantasy starter all season one way or another.
Dak Prescott had a great week. He'll have some big games. He'll have plenty of mediocre games (fantasy-wise). The Cowboys are a run-first team. A single week shouldn't change our outlook about that.
Sammy Watkins will have a great year. When healthy, he's an elite talent. His game is similar to that of Odell Beckham. He's a terrific route-runner with reliable hands, and just enough speed to be a threat over the full route tree. Now he's got a quarterback who will feed him an all-you-can-eat buffet. He's got WR1 upside with Tyreek Hill out, and WR2 value after that.
John Ross had a great week. I'd love to see him break out, but he hasn't shown much over his career thus far to be all that optimistic about it. He's got big-play speed, but some of his big plays in Week 1 came on gimmicky play calls. Until he shows more ability as a route-runner, and more desire to fight for the ball, I'll consider Week 1 to be a probable fluke.
Parsons: I am highly skeptical of D.J. Chark and, to a lesser degree, Michael Gallup to have strong seasons after good Week 1 performances. With Gallup, he is fighting Randall Cobb for secondary targets behind Amari Cooper, which limits his ceiling and predictability week to week. With Chark, the Jaguars have a giant receiver-by-committee feel and a new quarterback. Chark is also a boom-bust prospect on paper, making him a dicey bet to maintain strong production more than flashes.
I believe Sammy Watkins and Dak Prescott are earmarked for strong seasons. A healthy Watkins is a productive one and he FINALLY looks healthy and Tyreek Hill's absence only aids Watkins' floor and ceiling. I expect Watkins to be an easy WR1 in fantasy. If Prescott did improve his intermediate and deep accuracy this offseason, defenses are in trouble with their running game and weapons.
Waldman: I just interviewed The Sideline Hustle's Drew Lieberman for my podcast. A wide receiver coach who works with the likes of Mohamed Sanu, Jace Sternberger, and Juwann Winfree, Lieberman does incredible work teaching the game to players and fans. Go here to listen to the interview and you'll also see the YouTube video of Lieberman breaking down Sammy Watkins' performance.
I had Watkins just above Odell Beckham in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio as my top receiver in that rich 2014 draft class. However, what I've learned in recent years—especially from resources like Lieberman—is that Watkins only recently became a strong route runner. The potential has always been there, but you'll see why last week's game is a huge indication of what he's figured out that he didn't do in the past. Watkins even shared this with Lieberman in an interview with the coach after the game that you can also access from the link.
John Ross had a great week, but he fights the ball too much for my liking. When a receiver doesn't have the hand usage ingrained in his game to properly attack the ball it leads to targets that recoil violently off his hands and body. There were too many targets in this game where Ross clearly didn't have an ingrained sense of how to attack the ball and it makes every opportunity an adventure.
He'll earn enough targets while A.J. Green is out to have success, but I think he'll be a sell-high option just before Green's return.
D.J. Chark is an intriguing player because of his speed and comfort with physical play. However, he has the same issue as Ross. The difference is that he has a knack for making tough catches in spite of bad technique. Still, I think he's a year or two away from having a great year.
Lamar Jackson will have a great year. He has always been a strong pocket player and the Ravens have figured out how to maximize his strengths—downfield passing where he can place air under the ball, middle of the field throws, and option plays that threaten the defense with his legs—while minimizing timing routes on the perimeter that require A-plus accuracy and velocity. The list of plusses and minuses aren't much different than Deshaun Watson. The Ravens should be the favorite to win the AFC North and challenge the Chiefs and Patriots for the AFC title in January. Jackson will lead the way with combined yardage and touchdown totals commensurate with fantasy QB1 production.
Grant: Matthew Stafford had a great week on the road against a terrible defense with an extra quarter of stats to make it look impressive. But in overtime when the Lions needed the most, Stafford completed just 2 of his final 7 passes for 19 yards. He's still got two games against Chicago, Green Bay, and Minnesota this season. Week 1 was an outlier.
Jimmy Graham's touchdown was just a 'jump-ball' thrown into the corner of the end zone. It wasn't even a great pass, but Graham was in a good position to make the catch. Graham had just 1 'decent' catch the entire game, a 16-yard reception near the end of the 1st half. He posted a big fat zero for the second half of the game.
I was high on Sammy Watkins this summer when Tyreek Hill's status was in question. Hill came back and Watkins still found plenty of opportunities to get open and create big plays. Hill's expected to miss 4-6 weeks now and that means even more opportunities for Watkins in an offense that looks like it could average 35 points per game once again this season. I love his potential this year.
Michael Gallup's performance was against a weak Giants squad and the game was well in hand after the second quarter, but he looked great in his second season and is going to make plenty of people mad that they passed on him. Amari Cooper is still the No.1 target on the team, but with Jason Witten back at tight end and Zeke back with his fat new contract, Gallup is going to see a lot of single coverage against guys who are not as fast as he is. If Prescott has time to find him, Gallup is going to be open. He has a great opportunity to make some big noise this year.
Hindery: It was great to see Ross finally get his career on track with a big Week 1 performance. However, it is hard to believe he is going to be a fantasy WR1 the rest of the season. First, Andy Dalton isn’t going to throw for 400+ yards every week. In fact, that was the first 400-yard passing game of Dalton’s 9-year career.
Second, some of the production was fluky. One of Ross’ long touchdowns came on a flea-flicker. The other came in the final seconds of the first half on a deep ball that the safety misplayed horribly. Third, A.J. Green is going to return at some point this season. With Green, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Eifert, Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard, and others, there are a lot of mouths to feed. I’d be shocked if Ross is going to see enough targets to put up WR1 numbers the rest of the way.
Chark had a big fantasy game based entirely off of big plays. Even with the Jaguars trailing big for much of the game, Chark still only saw four targets, which was fifth-most on the team. This is going to be a run-heavy offense and Chark is not going to have a big target share of the passing offense. He looks like a steal for those who took him in the final rounds of drafts but is still a far cry from being a top-10 wide receiver.
Dak Prescott Let’s start with the fact that Prescott has finished as the QB11, QB6, and QB11 the last three seasons, so a top-10 quarterback finish wouldn’t require him to take a big leap forward from a fantasy perspective. It seems almost certain he will take at least a small step forward because the Dallas offense looked fantastic in Week 1.
With the addition of Amari Cooper and the emergence of Michael Gallup, this is far and away, the best supporting cast of Prescott’s career. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore looks like a rising star as a play-caller in the league and added some nice wrinkles that should help Prescott take his game to the next level. Prescott should be a top-5 fantasy option moving forward.
Projecting Watkins as a top-10 wide receiver over the full season is a close call. He is almost certainly going to be a top-10 option for as long as Tyreek Hill is out. He could even be a top-5 weekly option in the short term.
The Chiefs passing offense is fantastic and we haven’t seen anything to suggest Mahomes is going to have a big drop in production from the crazy numbers he put up last season and Watkins. Watkins will be his top target and a good bet to score plenty of long touchdowns while Hill is out.
The bigger question is what role Watkins will have once Hill returns mid-season. He will probably is more of a fantasy WR2 down the stretch if Hill comes back at full strength but could easily put up top-10 numbers for the whole season based upon what could be a monster first half.
Simpkins: John Ross and D.J. Chark are easy picks for players that had a great week, but aren’t in for a great year. Both Ross and Chark have their limitations in terms of usage and utility and exist in offenses that can’t sustain that type of production over the course of a season. Also, I credit Ross for making the play, but at least one of the long bombs he hauled in was grossly misplayed by the defending corner.
My picks for having a great week and a great year are Lamar Jackson and Sammy Watkins. My Lamar Jackson love is well-documented. We’ve never questioned Watkins’ talent, but it’s been his health that has held him back for years. As long as Sammy Watkins can stay healthy, he’s a lock for top-10 production. As Matt has talked about on multiple podcasts, it seems the training staff has found the regimen that is keeping him healthy
Bad Week, Bad Year?
Matt Waldman: Among the Week 1 duds below, pick that simply had a bad week and pick two that will have a disappointing year.
- O.J. Howard
- Eric Ebron
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Greg Olsen
- Dante Pettis
- Curtis Samuel
- Corey Davis
- Brandin Cooks
- Miles Sanders
- Sony Michel
- Devonta Freeman
Who makes the cut as having a bad day? Who are you staying away from entirely?
Tremblay: O.J. Howard had a bad week. He's an elite athlete with great ball skills. The entire Buccaneers offense had an off week, but Howard will be a solid fantasy starter over the course of the season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster had a bad week. The Patriots had the Steelers' number in Week 1. But Smith-Schuster is by far the best receiver on the team, and there will be plenty of receiving yards to go around in this offense.
Dante Pettis will have a bad year. Pettis has failed to establish himself as a prominent part of the 49ers offense. He played into the fourth quarter of the third preseason game, and then, even with Trent Taylor and Jalen Hurd sidelined in Week 1, Pettis barely saw the field. Deebo Samuel looks like the most physically talented wide receiver on the team, but Marquise Goodwin and Kendrick Bourne also seem to be ahead of Pettis in the rotation. (We'll leave Ritchie James out of it for now, even though he scored the team's only touchdown.)
Corey Davis will have a bad year. Marcus Mariota had a good game as a passer, but it was Delanie Walker, A.J. Brown, and Dion Lewis who stood out as receivers. Corey Davis has yet to assert himself as anything more than a complementary receiver, and it looks to me like A.J. Brown is the best wide receiver on the team already. Davis can't be counted on.
Simpkins: Smith-Schuster simply had a bad week. The Steelers game planning wasn’t creative enough for this contest and Donte Moncrief failed them in critical moments. I think they’ll learn from it. As long as the Steelers can quickly figure out that Moncrief needs to cede his snaps to James Washington, I’m confident that Smith-Schuster will still be a top receiving option this year.
Brandin Cooks is a player that you have to accept will have down weeks. There are so many good options in this offense that sometimes Cooks will be overlooked. There will be days he hauls in few of his targets, as was the case against the Panthers. He’ll also be the victim of pass interference penalties, as he was in that contest. However, the days he booms will be very good and sometimes win your fantasy week. Hopefully, no one was taking him as their primary receiver. I could see how that would lead to disappointment. However, he’s been a lock for 1,000 yards every year and barring injury should deliver that again. Just be patient and don’t pull him out of your lineup and miss his good days.
Dante Pettis and Miles Sanders are both players for which I believe the future is where to look for the production. For Pettis, the problem seems to be disagreement from the coaching staff about his technique and coming back from an injury situation. For Miles Sanders, he has the athleticism, but he needs more time to learn the finer points of playing running back. I did not see evidence of this in camp or preseason work, but Sanders was a notorious fumbler in college. Perhaps there are still some concerns in that area that are keeping Sanders from earning more work at present. The quality running back depth that the Eagles have built up ahead of Sanders may also play into the reluctance to use him currently. For fantasy players, this duo will have a "bad year."
Hicks: JuJu Smith-Schuster – Six catches for 78 yards is being considered a bad week now? That equates to 96 catches for 1248 yards. With six touchdowns for a season that puts him as a starting fantasy receiver. That is his downside. With the crazy numbers coming out in week one, there may be disappointment that players like Richie James and Kenny Stills outscored him, but we need to get real. Smith-Schuster had a, trying not to laugh, bad week.
Waldman: It's a good point when examining the box score but watching the game or reading more about the context of his production, he got shut down by Stephon Gilmore until the game was out of hand and the Patriots loosened up its coverage. This is why I added him to the list.
Hicks: Got it. Eric Ebron will have a disappointing year. One catch for eight yards, the loss of Andrew Luck and the return of Jack Doyle start to expose the fluke season Eric Ebron had in 2018. The touchdown figure last year was clearly an anomaly. Only three tight ends had more than six touchdown catches in 2018 and we all need to do a better job of analyzing one off-seasons and treating them as a statistical outlier.
In his six seasons in the NFL, we should do better than to underrate Brandin Cooks. He was a starting fantasy receiver for three different teams in three consecutive years, through no fault of his own. To put some perspective onto his week one game, he had four such games in 2018, six like that in 2017 and four games like that in 2016. It happens to all receivers. Sometimes the game script doesn’t call their number often. This is a clear case of a bad week and he will have more this season. Overreacting to one bad week for a proven performer such as Cooks is silly.
With the departure of Tevin Coleman and the seeming return to full health of Devonta Freeman, it was assumed that Freeman would bounce back to his best. He has not had a good season since 2016, a lifetime in the NFL and the Falcons look like they are not ready for meaningful action in 2019. Of course, Freeman and the offense could just be taking their time to gel as a unit and get better production, but this situation has a mess written all over it.
Hindery: We know by now that we should take a bad performance against the Patriots defense with a major grain of salt. No team does a better job of taking away the opposition’s best player. From that perspective, Smith-Schuster’s 6 catches for 78 yards in Week 1 doesn’t look bad at all.
Sanders wouldn’t be on this list of guys who had a bad week if his impressive 21-yard touchdown run wasn’t called back due to a penalty. His Week 1 usage was actually close to a best-case scenario in the bigger picture. He played half of the snaps and received the goal line carries. The working assumption has been that Sanders would see his role grow steadily throughout the season (likely at the expense of 36-year old Darren Sproles). It is common to see rookie backs eased in and then have their workload ramp up later in the year. If 50% of the snaps is the starting point, there is plenty of reason for optimism.
A.J. Brown looked great in his debut and Delanie Walker looked fully recovered from the ankle injury that cost him his 2018 season. There probably won’t be a single pass-catcher who dominates the targets for the 2019 Titans (and no guarantee it would be Davis as the top target if so). In a run-heavy offense that is going to spread the targets around, Davis looks like a player who is not going to add much from a fantasy perspective.
There was a narrative that Kyle Shanahan was just trying to motivate Pettis by not gifting him a starting spot and making him play deep into the fourth quarter with backups during the preseason. That seems hard to believe after Pettis saw the field for just three snaps in Week 1. There was some speculation about a lingering injury but Pettis practiced in full for the week. The simplest explanation—that Pettis is in the dog house or simply one of many guys fighting for snaps — seems the most likely explanation. Plus, the passing offense goes through George Kittle. Even if we want to take the optimistic view and believe Pettis will emerge as the top receiver, that still doesn’t guarantee fantasy success. The 49ers have a number of solid options at the position and would most likely spread the targets around, leaving Kittle as the only reliable fantasy option on a weekly basis.
Waldman: I'll take the contrarian view on Smith-Schuster and Pettis although admittedly, my stance is wavering a bit internally. The fact that Gilmore, a decent but not top-shelf cover corner could force Ben Roethlisberger away from Smith-Schuster for much of the game and the Steelers receivers couldn't capitalize is a concern. If this continues, Ben Roethlisberger will be influenced to wait longer on Smith-Schuster to work open and take more hits and sacks. I think there's a real possibility that more teams will double-cover Smith-Schuster if they don't have a cornerback as good as Gilmore and that cornerbacks superior to Gilmore will limit Smith-Schuster enough this year that he does not earn WR1 production in fantasy leagues.
I'll reiterate the narrative Dan referenced above on Pettis because George Kittle experienced similar treatment from Shanahan last summer:
If you want to real goods on all of this "sky-is-falling" from the 49ers community, read this article from the Sacramento Bee about the subject. In it, you'll see that George Kittle went through the same thing with Shanahan last summer.
Kittle understands where Shanahan is coming from regarding Pettis and offered advice to the receiver.
“I think the worst thing you can do is just tell guys, ‘Hey, you’re the starter,’” Kittle told The Bee. “I remember (Richard) Sherman said something about that. ‘If you give a guy a starting job, he’s never going to look over shoulder.’ He’s like, ‘Hey, I’ve cemented myself.’”
The public has heard Shanahan’s comments about Pettis this summer and has taken them as a sign of the worst. After all, the 49ers have struggled to draft and develop receivers in recent seasons and 2012 first-round bust A.J. Jenkins remains in fresh in the mind of the fan base.
But Kittle doesn’t seem worried about Pettis or the fact Shanahan has publicly asked him to show more on the practice field and in games.
“(Shanahan’s) saying the same things to me, he’s saying the same things to Jimmy (Garoppolo), he’s saying the same things to Joe Staley,” Kittle said. “I think the second-year slump is a real thing. Because you have such a long rookie year that you don’t know how to transition to the NFL. It’s a little different. Just seeing how guys respond to it, that’s what coach Shanahan likes to do. He likes to give guys opportunities – he likes to challenge guys and see how they respond.”
Pettis also talks about his style of play that leads to beat writers to conflate how he plays with Shanahan's commentary and see the worst.
Groin injuries are the type of ailment that will allow walk-throughs and some practice but may limit overall opportunity. In addition, the 49ers played a lot of 12, 21, and 13 personnel — run-heavy looks against a weaker Buccaneers defense.
Parsons: I am bullish on JuJu Smith-Schuster and Brandin Cooks. Their profiles long-term are too good (as well as their quarterbacks) to expect an extended production swoon. I am staying away from Eric Ebron and Dante Pettis. With Ebron, his low snaps and competitive for targets are departures from his career year in 2018. Pettis is a weak Day 2 profile and I question Jimmy Garoppolo as a fantasy distributor plus the wide receiver committee is jumbled in San Francisco to expect one to stand out as a top-25 type option.
Grant: The Steelers were down early and Smith-Schuster was blanketed for most of the game. With the offense struggling, the Patriots were able to double Smith-Schuster most of the game. The entire Pittsburgh offense struggled so it's expected that their best receiver would take the biggest hit. The Steelers will rebound and Smith-Schuster will rebound with them.
This is really 'The Patriot Way' isn't it? No favorites. No superstars. Go with the guy who produces the most? The Patriots had less than 100 yards rushing as a team and still won by 30. Sony Michel had the most opportunity with 15 carries out of the 29 that the Patriots had all night. Expect he'll post better numbers with that type of opportunity—especially this week against the Dolphins.
Eric Ebron is a great talent but without Luck, this offense is going to be very conservative. Maybe he rebounds before the end of the season, but expect a severe downgrade in production based on what we've seen so far. A guy with great skill who will struggle to be relevant from a fantasy perspective this season.
Many thought Freeman would be back to his 'old self' this season, but that didn't appear to be the case last Sunday. The Falcons struggled and Freeman looked very average. Ito Smith had limited action last week, but if Freeman continues to struggle, expect to see more of Smith and that will only hurt Freeman's stats moving forward. I think he's in for a disappointing season.
