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Diversifying Your Portfolio
If you follow fantasy football, you've no doubt seen articles and tweets about diversification. That concept is commonly used in the context of best ball rosters. But diversification can be a strategy within a single team as well. Drafting a team full of known commodities could lead to a solid team that can't get over the hump and win it all. But having a team with all boom-or-bust players could lead to a level of variance that feels unsafe.
Using our Footballguys projections from David Dodds, Bob Henry, Maurile Tremblay, and Jason Wood, a range of outcomes for each player can be gauged by the variance within the projections and the delta between the highest and lowest projections of the group.
Note: quarterbacks have been excluded from this exercise. Their projections tend to vary less, and there are fewer boom-or-bust types at the position.
Round-by-Round
Below, we'll separate players into groups based on Average Draft Position and identify the known commodities (those with a small gap between the highest and lowest projections) and the boom-or-bust players (those where our projectors are less aligned).
When looking at the tables below, note the following abbreviations.
- FP AVG = the average fantasy points projection of the four projectors
- Max = the highest projection
- Min = the lowest projection
- FP GAP = the delta between "Min" and "Max"
- In the "FP GAP" column, red shows a narrower gap between the maximum and minimum projections, implying a safer player.
Round 1
Name | Pos | ADP | FP AVG | Max | Min | FP GAP |
Saquon Barkley | RB | 1.0 | 371.2 | 384.5 | 363.8 | 20.7 |
Christian McCaffrey | RB | 2.8 | 352.0 | 364.0 | 335.5 | 28.5 |
Alvin Kamara | RB | 3.0 | 347.5 | 365.0 | 324.4 | 40.6 |
Ezekiel Elliott | RB | 3.2 | 345.5 | 355.5 | 333.8 | 21.7 |
DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 5.6 | 310.0 | 318.0 | 301.7 | 16.3 |
Davante Adams | WR | 6.8 | 297.6 | 309.5 | 280.3 | 29.2 |
David Johnson | RB | 6.8 | 290.2 | 303.5 | 279.8 | 23.7 |
LeVeon Bell | RB | 9.8 | 263.2 | 291.5 | 221.4 | 70.1 |
Michael Thomas | WR | 10.4 | 288.2 | 296.5 | 281.3 | 15.2 |
Julio Jones | WR | 10.4 | 298.7 | 309.5 | 281.0 | 28.5 |
James Conner | RB | 10.6 | 260.1 | 283.5 | 242.8 | 40.7 |
Observations
- It's no surprise that the top-ranked player at each position has a narrow distribution of projections. Both Saquon Barkley and DeAndre Hopkins are projected to see plenty of volume and be efficient with their opportunities. Michael Thomas is also a high-floor play, as he's a candidate for 180 or more targets and a 30% market share in the New Orleans offense.
- Alvin Kamara headlines the "boom/bust" category in Round 1, and that's logical considering the difficulty in projecting his workload. Of all running backs in the top-12 of PPR points per game last season, only James White had fewer carries per game than Kamara's 12.9. So will this finally be the year that Kamara sees 15-17 rushes per game? As our projectors suggest, it's difficult to assess that.
- Players joining new teams and teams with new coaches are always difficult to project. LeVeon Bell checks both of those boxes and also has some uncertainty due to him sitting out 2018. Those reasons contribute to him having the largest disparity in projections among all first-round fantasy picks.
Round 2
Name | Pos | ADP | FP AVG | Max | Min | FP GAP |
Odell Beckham | WR | 12.8 | 281.7 | 300.5 | 269.8 | 30.7 |
Joe Mixon | RB | 14.8 | 257.3 | 281.0 | 221.1 | 59.9 |
Melvin Gordon | RB | 15.2 | 243.8 | 264.0 | 220.2 | 43.8 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 15.4 | 281.7 | 293.5 | 272.4 | 21.1 |
Travis Kelce | TE | 16.0 | 271.3 | 275.7 | 261.5 | 14.2 |
Todd Gurley | RB | 16.4 | 258.1 | 279.0 | 241.4 | 37.6 |
Antonio Brown | WR | 19.0 | 281.0 | 289.5 | 269.5 | 20.0 |
Tyreek Hill | WR | 19.4 | 296.5 | 301.5 | 292.9 | 8.6 |
Dalvin Cook | RB | 19.8 | 245.5 | 262.0 | 217.9 | 44.1 |
Mike Evans | WR | 21.4 | 266.7 | 276.5 | 253.7 | 22.8 |
Nick Chubb | RB | 21.6 | 250.0 | 272.6 | 227.3 | 45.3 |
Damien Williams | RB | 23.2 | 230.3 | 245.9 | 214.1 | 31.8 |
Observations
- Only a year ago, Tyreek Hill was on the other end of this exercise as a player with a large delta between his min and max projections. Now, his projected range of outcomes is nearly identical across all four projectors. Hill will get open deep and make big plays. And last season's 137 targets show that he'll have steady volume to boot.
- Sometimes, looking at the gap isn't enough. When a player has a large delta in projections, sometimes it's volume-driven. But other times, it's touchdown-driven. In the case of Joe Mixon, the former is true. Tremblay has Mixon projected for just 42 receptions, while the other three have him slated for an average of 53. Tremblay has Mixon rushing for 1,057 yards, while the others see 1,167 in Mixon's future. Perhaps Maurile sees more involvement for Giovani Bernard than the others see. If you agree with him, you probably view Mixon as overpriced with a less secure floor.
- Interestingly, that Todd Gurley falls near the middle of the "FP GAP" numbers in Round 2. Gurley's outlook is dependent on how his knee holds up and how the team manages his workload when it does. Neither of those things is easily predictable, but our four projectors don't see Gurley as the most volatile player in this round.
Round 3
Name | Pos | ADP | FP AVG | Max | Min | FP GAP |
Zach Ertz | TE | 25.4 | 234.7 | 278.4 | 214.2 | 64.2 |
Adam Thielen | WR | 26.2 | 252.7 | 277.5 | 224.0 | 53.5 |
Keenan Allen | WR | 27.4 | 262.4 | 265.8 | 256.5 | 9.3 |
Leonard Fournette | RB | 27.8 | 218.3 | 227.0 | 196.5 | 30.5 |
T.Y. Hilton | WR | 28.4 | 253.4 | 264.5 | 246.9 | 17.6 |
George Kittle | TE | 31.0 | 221.5 | 228.5 | 215.0 | 13.5 |
Aaron Jones | RB | 31.4 | 210.7 | 227.4 | 191.2 | 36.2 |
Amari Cooper | WR | 32.0 | 242.1 | 256.5 | 228.5 | 28.0 |
Devonta Freeman | RB | 33.0 | 213.5 | 229.0 | 194.8 | 34.2 |
Stefon Diggs | WR | 33.6 | 241.1 | 248.0 | 232.1 | 15.9 |
Marlon Mack | RB | 34.8 | 204.8 | 212.7 | 187.6 | 25.1 |
Kerryon Johnson | RB | 35.2 | 242.7 | 252.0 | 227.0 | 25.0 |
Observations
- Keenan Allen is a poster boy for exercises like this. His target market share is secure, he doesn't typically score his fantasy points in big chunks, and he's rarely a player who produces duds.
- Adam Thielen is a similar style of player to Allen, yet Thielen's projections vary greatly. That has more to do with Minnesota's offensive outlook. Last season, they were a pass-heavy unit for the first part of the season But they ran much more in the latter half of the year after an offensive coordinator change. How they'll operate in 2019 is a mystery for fantasy purposes.
- Many analysts are saying that third-round running backs are the key to fantasy football this year. Any of the backs above could return Round 1 value at a Round 3 price tag. But figuring out which of them will is a difficult task. Each has a ceiling but not a safe floor, and that's reflected in their ADPs and the volatility of their projections.
Round 4
Name | Pos | ADP | FP AVG | Max | Min | FP GAP |
Derrick Henry | RB | 36.2 | 211.4 | 235.0 | 192.5 | 42.5 |
A.J. Green | WR | 36.4 | 193.6 | 226.0 | 173.9 | 52.1 |
Josh Jacobs | RB | 38.6 | 193.9 | 206.5 | 175.0 | 31.5 |
Julian Edelman | WR | 41.4 | 219.6 | 234.5 | 197.5 | 37.0 |
Brandin Cooks | WR | 41.8 | 218.0 | 228.5 | 205.9 | 22.6 |
Mark Ingram | RB | 44.6 | 188.7 | 203.0 | 177.3 | 25.7 |
Phillip Lindsay | RB | 44.8 | 193.2 | 202.0 | 185.0 | 17.0 |
Robert Woods | WR | 47.0 | 207.6 | 213.3 | 201.5 | 11.8 |
Kenny Golladay | WR | 47.2 | 215.8 | 224.0 | 209.4 | 14.6 |
Sony Michel | RB | 47.4 | 193.4 | 205.0 | 179.1 | 25.9 |
Chris Godwin | WR | 51.4 | 200.6 | 214.0 | 180.0 | 34.0 |
James White | RB | 52.2 | 192.0 | 198.5 | 184.3 | 14.2 |
Observations
- Sometimes "safe" doesn't mean exciting, as evidenced by players like Philip Lindsay, Robert Woods, and Kenny Golladay. All have an opportunity to have some big games, but none will generate a ton of buzz in your draft room when selected.
- In case you're wondering about the A.J. Green injury and its influence here, all of these projections were updated on July 28 and 29 (and likely will have been updated again between now and when this publishes). So they do factor in the news of Green's 6-8 week recovery. But the volatility is likely a function of how each projector views the recovery and chance of re-injury.
Summary
Before your draft, determine if you are a risk-taker or a conservative fantasy owner (both have their pros and cons), and then draft accordingly. Certain combinations of players might look electric on paper but leave the door open for low-scoring weeks. Conversely, drafting exclusively "safe" players could lead to a team not dynamic enough to dominate your league.
Know your risk profile; assess each player; and be fluid as the draft progresses. Those are key items to keep in mind when building fantasy football teams.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com