The trade value changes came fast and furious the first month of the regular season. Next year, we will offer a mid-September update because that month between the posting of the September chart and this October trade value article feels like an eternity and the trade values from September become obsolete quickly. Things should stabilize a bit moving forward and the monthly updates will feel appropriate. Even between mostly updates, you can check out our staff dynasty rankings. You can also always ask me questions on twitter or email.
There are a few dynasty goals to keep in mind at this time of the year, including the following:
1. Determine your contender status and make moves accordingly. To maximize the value of your roster, you want to move veterans quickly if you determine you aren’t going to be able to compete. It not only increases the likely return you will get in trade but helps your odds of landing a premium rookie pick. To this end, the dynasty trade value chart includes values broken down into both 2019 and future value. If you are rebuilding focus on the future part of the equation and make sure you are at least coming out ahead in that regard.
2. Take a stance on small sample size standouts and make your move. It is hard to tell how much staying power guys like Daniel Jones, Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown, Austin Ekeler, and Darren Waller are going to have. We could see their dynasty values continue to increase if they keep performing, which would make them buy-low candidates. Or we could be seeing their peak in value right now, which would make them sell-high candidates. We will touch on some of these topics below but you need to make your own decisions on how real you think these guys are and make your moves. Making the right move at the right time on these potentially high-variance players is key to the long-term health of your dynasty rosters.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Future rookie picks
Let’s start October with a quick discussion of 2020 picks because viewing the rest of the player values listed below through the lens of how much each player is worth compared to a future pick can often be a good way to gain perspective.
|
Pick
|
Value
|
Superflex
|
|
Early 1st
|
22
|
24
|
|
Mid 1st
|
16
|
18
|
|
Late 1st
|
12
|
14
|
|
2nd
|
8
|
9
|
|
3rd
|
4
|
5
|
These pick values are higher than they would be for a normal class. The 2020 rookie class is going to be above average at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. We knew this was likely to be a strong group and the early returns from the first month of the college football season have only strengthened that perception. It really is shaping up to be a loaded class overall with the triple whammy of three excellent skill position groups all in the same class is making the picks extra valuable.
Even without going into depth on specific players, we can look at the class in terms of making predictions about numbers of players selected early:
- The 2020 class looks like it could have five or more first-round quarterbacks. In recent years, the best comparison would be the 2018 class with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson.
- The 2020 class should have 8-to-10 running backs in the top-75 overall. For context, the loaded 2018 running back class had 8 in the Top 75.
- The 2020 class should see 10-to-15 wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds. The epic 2014 receiver class had 12.
Even ignoring the tight ends (which look like an average group), you can start adding up the projected number of early picks at each position above to get an idea of what the first couple rounds of a rookie draft might look like. It is easy to see how crazy deep with skill-position talent the class is shaping up to be.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the strategy for 2020 picks is to not focus solely on acquiring first-round picks. Instead, remember those second (and maybe even third) round picks are going to be worth a lot more next spring than they are right now.
Quarterback
|
Rank
|
Player
|
2019 Value
|
Future Value
|
Total Value
|
Superflex
|
|
1
|
7
|
28
|
35
|
75
|
|
|
2
|
4
|
23
|
27
|
50
|
|
|
3
|
4
|
10
|
14
|
45
|
|
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
10
|
34
|
|
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
30
|
|
|
6
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
30
|
|
|
7
|
1
|
7
|
8
|
30
|
|
|
8
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
30
|
|
|
9
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
27
|
|
|
10
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
22
|
|
|
11
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
20
|
|
|
12
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
24
|
|
|
13
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
21
|
|
|
14
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
20
|
|
|
15
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
18
|
|
|
16
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
18
|
|
|
17
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
18
|
|
18
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
18
|
|
|
19
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
16
|
|
|
20
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
15
|
|
|
21
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
10
|
|
|
22
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
8
|
|
|
23
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
|
|
24
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
|
|
25
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
|
|
26
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
10
|
|
|
27
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
|
|
28
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
7
|
|
|
29
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
30
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
31
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
32
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
33
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
|
|
34
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
|
|
35
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
|
|
36
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
|
|
37
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
38
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
39
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
|
40
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Changing of the Guard
The biggest dynasty news in September was the changing of the guard at the quarterback position. On the heels of Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Nick Foles, and Cam Newton suffered serious injuries. Eli Manning got replaced by Daniel Jones. We are also seeing a youth movement in terms of the top fantasy scorers. Stalwarts like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers rank outside the Top 12 in scoring at the position and are 21st and 22nd, respectively, in yards per attempt.
Meanwhile, the youth movement has accelerated with the top fantasy quarterbacks. Through the first month of the season, 22-year old Lamar Jackson and 24-year old Patrick Mahomes II top the rankings. Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson aren’t too far behind them. Josh Allen and Daniel Jones are also showing signs of being the type of dual-threat quarterbacks who can make a real fantasy impact.
Patrick Mahomes II
There was a school of thought that Mahomes would come back to the pack after a historically great first season as a starter. Instead, through four weeks, he is on pace for over 6,000 passing yards. We have to start strongly considering the possibility Mahomes is about to rewrite every passing record.
It would take an absurd offer to even consider trading Mahomes in a Superflex league. The tougher question: What is Mahomes worth in a single quarterback league?
Some recent historical context on quarterback scoring is needed. Long-time readers of this article know the dynasty trade values are based on two things: (1) what I am seeing in actual trades in my many leagues and posted elsewhere, and (2) an attempt to quantify fantasy production and project that forward into future years. The basic idea is that we can strongly approximate a player’s value to our fantasy team by looking at his fantasy PPG compared to replacement-level PPG at his position. We can look forward with projected points to guess what a player will be worth or look backward at actual fantasy scoring to see what a player was worth. Let’s do both quickly.
Using the simple metric I outlined above (PPG minus replacement-level PPG), here is what the top quarterbacks from 2016-2018 were worth:
|
Player
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
3-Year Total
|
|
7
|
1
|
2
|
10
|
|
|
5
|
|
5
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
9
|
|
|
5
|
1
|
2
|
8
|
|
|
4
|
|
3
|
7
|
|
|
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
|
|
|
6
|
1
|
7
|
|
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
7
|
|
|
3
|
3
|
|
6
|
|
|
3
|
3
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
|
|
|
5
|
|
5
|
Looking at the above, it is easy to see why quarterback dynasty trade values haven’t been very high. Nobody at the position returned more than 10 points worth of value total over the three-year stretch. Meanwhile, the top players at other positions returned 30+ points of value over the same timeframe.
Mahomes sticks out like a sore thumb on that list. His value in 2018 (9 points) was off the charts compared to the other single-season quarterback values you see. Through four games in 2019, he is again providing a huge advantage, outscoring a replacement-level quarterback by 9 PPG. In Bob Henry’s Top 200 forward projections, he sees Mahomes with a PPG above replacement of approximately 7.0. Dynasty owners can do the quick math themselves based upon their own assumptions and beliefs. Is Mahomes going to crank out seasons worth 8 or 9 points? How many seasons are you comfortable projecting that kind of production out? It is getting easier to make the case for Mahomes as a player who belongs in the first round of dynasty startups even in single quarterback leagues.
Everyone Else
Lamar Jackson is also outscoring the QB12 by almost 9 PPG in the very early going in 2018. Unlike Mahomes, he didn’t do anything like this last season, so we have to take the very small sample with a larger grain of salt. Still, he looks like an impactful fantasy player moving forward.
It was pointed out in this article a few times over the summer that even if you weren’t a believer in Daniel Jones, he was still a buy in Superflex dynasty leagues at his absurdly low price tag (given his skill set and draft spot). At some point, he would play and people would see his athleticism and buy into his upside and you could turn a quick profit if you wanted to. Here we are. The window to sell high is wide open if you aren’t sold on him. If you are sold on him or are simply content to see how he develops, don’t be afraid to hold tight. If Jones has a big rookie year, he is going to be a top-10 dynasty quarterback this offseason.
Cam Newton feels like the biggest wild card at the position. It is easy to envision scenarios where he never plays at a high level again and/or retires early. It is also easy to envision him getting healthy and coming back to put up big numbers with this exciting group of young skill players.
Ryan Finley could be the next Mason Rudolph or Gardner Minshew. He may get a shot to start some games if the Bengals don’t pull out of their tailspin by December. He’s worth stashing in Superflex leagues.
Running Back
|
Rank
|
Player
|
2019 Value
|
Future Value
|
Total Value
|
|
1
|
8
|
61
|
69
|
|
|
2
|
14
|
54
|
68
|
|
|
3
|
10
|
45
|
55
|
|
|
4
|
10
|
40
|
50
|
|
|
5
|
10
|
33
|
43
|
|
|
6
|
8
|
32
|
40
|
|
|
7
|
5
|
24
|
29
|
|
|
8
|
7
|
21
|
28
|
|
|
9
|
8
|
19
|
27
|
|
|
10
|
6
|
20
|
26
|
|
|
11
|
5
|
21
|
26
|
|
|
12
|
5
|
20
|
25
|
|
|
13
|
5
|
18
|
23
|
|
|
14
|
4
|
17
|
21
|
|
|
15
|
5
|
15
|
20
|
|
|
16
|
Melvin Gordon
|
5
|
15
|
20
|
|
17
|
2
|
16
|
18
|
|
|
18
|
4
|
10
|
14
|
|
|
19
|
5
|
9
|
14
|
|
|
20
|
5
|
9
|
14
|
|
|
21
|
5
|
9
|
14
|
|
|
22
|
2
|
10
|
12
|
|
|
23
|
4
|
8
|
12
|
|
|
24
|
3
|
8
|
11
|
|
|
25
|
Mark Ingram
|
6
|
5
|
11
|
|
26
|
0
|
10
|
10
|
|
|
27
|
2
|
8
|
10
|
|
|
28
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
|
|
29
|
1
|
7
|
8
|
|
|
30
|
Ronald Jones
|
1
|
7
|
8
|
|
31
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
32
|
1
|
6
|
7
|
|
|
33
|
Darrell Henderson
|
0
|
7
|
7
|
|
34
|
0
|
7
|
7
|
|
|
35
|
3
|
4
|
7
|
|
|
36
|
3
|
4
|
7
|
|
|
37
|
1
|
6
|
7
|
|
|
38
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
39
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
|
|
40
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
41
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
|
|
42
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
43
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
|
44
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
|
|
45
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
|
|
46
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
|
|
47
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
|
|
48
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
49
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
|
|
50
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
51
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
|
|
52
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
53
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
54
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
55
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
56
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
57
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
58
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
59
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
60
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
61
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
62
|
Benny Snell
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
63
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
64
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
65
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
66
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
67
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
68
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
69
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
70
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
So many disappointments
If there was a theme of the first month at running back, it was the sheer number who there was some degree of excitement about who have failed to hit their ceiling for whatever reason. Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Sony Michel, Aaron Jones, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman, Derrius Guice, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson Jr, Rashaad Penny, James White…the list is long. More than most positions, it feels like fantasy success is outside the running back’s hands. Is the offensive line good enough to open holes? Will the coaching staff use them at the goal line and in the passing game? Does a bad luck injury strike?
It is a reminder that running back isn’t the best position to “store” dynasty value. The fall from elite fantasy producer to average production can happen in an instant, as it has with Gurley. There is such volatility in both fantasy production and dynasty value that a roster built around the position can rise or fall quickly. On the other hand, no position can match the weekly advantage having an elite running back can offer. We have to keep chasing the upside if we want to win our leagues.
Hot Starts
We also have seen how a running back can see his dynasty trade value explode quickly. Let’s look at some of the backs off to hot starts and what that means for their dynasty trade value:
Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey is a cheat code, especially in PPR leagues. He is currently on pace for 100 receptions and 344 carries. The weekly advantage he provides is unmatched. In Bob Henry’s Top 200 forward, he projects McCaffrey to exceed replacement-level fantasy production by about 14 PPG the rest of the way. It would take a king’s ransom to buy McCaffrey in dynasty. He was moved for Ezekiel Elliott and Tyreek Hill in one of my leagues, as just one example.
There are two ways to look at McCaffrey. On one hand, he is a superstar 23-year old who could rack up insane fantasy value over the next few years. 400-point fantasy seasons are just a massive value add to your roster. From this perspective, he looks untradeable unless a crazy offer arrives in the inbox. On the other hand, it is worth considering how sustainable this will be. McCaffrey is currently on pace for 444 touches. That takes its toll on any player. There is a chance that dynasty owners will look back in a couple of years and wish they would have sold at the absolute peak of his value, which might be right now.
Austin Ekeler
Speaking of 400-point backs, Ekeler is currently on pace for 436 PPR points. He won’t get anywhere near that total with Melvin Gordon now back in the fold but it is worth highlighting the small sample size results here. Gordon seems likely to play his football somewhere else in 2020. Meanwhile, Ekeler will be a restricted free agent and isn’t going anywhere. Are we going to see something like this again from Ekeler next season or was this just a fun, fluky little stretch of domination from a guy who will settle back into a complementary role?
If Ekeler fades into the background down the stretch in 2019, he might make for a nice speculative trade target on the hope he gets back to a lead back role in the future.
Dalvin Cook
The big group of backs going off the redraft board between the late-1st and late-2nd round this past summer has mostly disappointed so far. Cook has been a glaring exception, racing out of the gates to rank as the RB3 a quarter of the way through the season. Cook has looked great and is a top talent. We shouldn’t underestimate the importance of scheme, play calling, and line play, however. This feels like a situation where another back (like Alexander Mattison) could step in and produce close to this level. I’d want to be aggressive in handcuffing if I was reliant on Cook and Mattison makes a nice speculative trade target even for those who don't have Cook.
Nick Chubb
Like Cook, Chubb is having a breakout season. The two have pushed their way up toward that elite tier of four (Barkley, McCaffrey, Kamara, and Elliott) and really separated from the rest of that next tier of young backs.
Mark Ingram
Ingram is a great example of a player who is going to have a different value for contenders than non-contenders. This is exactly why the dynasty trade value chart separately lists player values in terms of both the current season and future seasons at this time of the year. Know your status as a contender or non-contender. If you are a non-contender, there is no reason to hold onto an almost 30-year old running back who will probably be worth half what he is now this next offseason. You should be looking to make a win-win deal with a contender to come out ahead in future value since the 2019 value isn’t really helping you.
Derrick Henry
Henry has been fine. He’s averaging over 100 yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game in the early going. While he may not be the most exciting fantasy back, especially in PPR leagues, Henry has been one of the early round backs who has actually met expectations. His value has risen simply because he looks better in comparison to the competition than he did last month.
Leonard Fournette
I’ve become a big proponent in recent years of looking at snap counts to really gauge running back values. Fournette is one of the very few backs in today’s NFL who rarely leaves the field. As long as that remains the case, the fantasy production will come. We finally saw Fournette come through with a big game in Week 4. He doesn’t even have a touchdown yet and still ranks as the RB9. There are not many backs who I would rather have on my dynasty roster.
Chris Thompson
Thompson isn’t having a huge season by any means but he is an RB2 at the quarter-point of the season. He is also an example of the type of guy who contending teams should look to acquire on the cheap if he is on a non-contending team in your league. Depth is important and having a guy who can get you through some bye weeks and injuries is key.
