With most rookie drafts in the rearview mirror, June is a good month to start turning our focus to identifying which players could outperform dynasty expectations in 2019. Borrowing some data from some of the sharpest and most prepared 2019 drafters should be of benefit. Best ball enthusiasts who are already deep into drafting for 2019 have crunched the numbers, analyzed the opportunities, and put their money on players based upon their 2019 expectations in 1000s of early drafts. This best ball ADP data can provide useful insights and help identify where perhaps the dynasty marketplace has not adjusted as quickly to all of the information available. It is also a good time of year to start looking forward to future draft classes. 2020 rookie picks are not going to be any cheaper to acquire tomorrow than they are today and the trade value is only likely to increase between now and next spring.
In this month’s article, we will look in-depth at the following:
- How to Value 2020 Rookie Picks
- Dynasty Insights Gleaned from Best Ball ADP
- The Latest News and Notes that have Impacted Dynasty Values
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Valuing 2020 Picks Highly
With most 2019 rookie drafts in the rearview mirror, the 2019 rookies are listed below with their position groups. The focus when it comes to trading rookie picks is now on 2020. Having just put together a listing of the top 100 dynasty prospects for devy leagues, the 2020 class is really coming into focus. The rankings are worth checking out even if you don’t play in devy leagues because it is important to know what is coming down the pipeline for future years. These 2020 picks should be valued more highly than in the typical year:
|
Pick
|
PPR Value
|
Superflex
|
|
Early 1st
|
22
|
23
|
|
Mid 1st
|
17
|
19
|
|
Late 1st
|
12
|
14
|
|
2nd Round
|
7
|
8
|
|
3rd Round
|
3
|
3
|
Why are 2020 picks so valuable?
The 2020 draft class has a deep, above-average group of running backs combined with what is shaping up to be an elite wide receiver class. In fact, it is probably on track to be the most talented group to enter the NFL since the monster 2014 class. We could see five or six wide receivers drafted in the first round and should have a couple go in the Top 10 overall. Don’t just take my word for it. One of the top GMs in the NFL, Chris Ballard is a fan of the group. “We think next year’s receiver class is pretty good,” Ballard said, before doubling down. “It’s gonna be really good.”
Acquiring extra 2020 picks should be a priority for all dynasty owners, even if it requires an overpay compared to the typical cost of acquiring a future 1st round pick. The strength of the 2020 skill position class should also be something you keep in mind when valuing veteran players right now. It was noted that part of the reason the Colts signed Devin Funchess to just a one-year deal was because they already had an eye toward next year’s wide receiver group. Funchess is in a great spot for 2019 but with all the wide receiver talent about to hit the league, he may not be in a plum situation for long. There is a similar dynamic at running back. Thus, it would be wise to not overvalue short-term situations for teams like Baltimore (Mark Ingram and Justice Hill), Houston (Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman) and Kansas City (Damien Williams, Carlos Hyde, and Darwin Thompson).
Wide Receiver Trade Value Chart
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
48
|
48
|
7
|
||
|
2
|
Odell Beckham
|
46
|
49
|
7
|
|
|
3
|
42
|
50
|
6
|
||
|
4
|
42
|
51
|
Marvin Jones
|
6
|
|
|
5
|
42
|
52
|
Robby Anderson
|
6
|
|
|
6
|
38
|
53
|
6
|
||
|
7
|
30
|
54
|
6
|
||
|
8
|
30
|
55
|
TreQuan Smith
|
5
|
|
|
9
|
27
|
56
|
5
|
||
|
10
|
25
|
57
|
5
|
||
|
11
|
25
|
58
|
4
|
||
|
12
|
25
|
59
|
4
|
||
|
13
|
22
|
60
|
4
|
||
|
14
|
22
|
61
|
4
|
||
|
15
|
22
|
62
|
4
|
||
|
16
|
21
|
63
|
4
|
||
|
17
|
20
|
64
|
4
|
||
|
18
|
D.J. Moore
|
20
|
65
|
4
|
|
|
19
|
20
|
66
|
Daesean Hamilton
|
4
|
|
|
20
|
19
|
67
|
4
|
||
|
21
|
N'Keal Harry
|
18
|
68
|
3
|
|
|
22
|
17
|
69
|
3
|
||
|
23
|
16
|
70
|
3
|
||
|
24
|
15
|
71
|
3
|
||
|
25
|
15
|
72
|
3
|
||
|
26
|
15
|
73
|
3
|
||
|
27
|
Allen Robinson
|
14
|
74
|
3
|
|
|
28
|
13
|
75
|
2
|
||
|
29
|
13
|
76
|
2
|
||
|
30
|
DK Metcalf
|
13
|
77
|
2
|
|
|
31
|
11
|
78
|
2
|
||
|
32
|
11
|
79
|
2
|
||
|
33
|
11
|
80
|
2
|
||
|
34
|
Mecole Hardman
|
11
|
81
|
2
|
|
|
35
|
10
|
82
|
2
|
||
|
36
|
10
|
83
|
2
|
||
|
37
|
10
|
84
|
2
|
||
|
38
|
10
|
85
|
2
|
||
|
39
|
10
|
86
|
2
|
||
|
40
|
Will Fuller
|
9
|
87
|
D.J. Chark
|
1
|
|
41
|
9
|
88
|
Desean Jackson
|
1
|
|
|
42
|
9
|
89
|
1
|
||
|
43
|
8
|
90
|
1
|
||
|
44
|
8
|
91
|
1
|
||
|
45
|
8
|
92
|
1
|
||
|
46
|
7
|
93
|
1
|
||
|
47
|
7
|
Wide Receiver News and Notes
Best Ball Insights
Playing in as many fantasy formats as possible can help raise your dynasty game. Best ball enthusiasts who are drafting early, especially in some of the higher-dollar tournaments, have already researched the 2019 fantasy season in a way the average dynasty owner might not have, given that the prime focus to this point of the offseason has been on the rookie class. Some of the WR2 ADP numbers are especially interesting in terms of what they imply about dynasty trade values:
- Sammy Watkins, ADP 47 (WR19) Age 25
- Chris Godwin, ADP 48 (WR20) Age 23
- Tyler Lockett, ADP 52 (WR21) Age 26
- Mike Williams, ADP 55 (WR23) Age 24
When you simply look at expected 2019 fantasy value and combine that with the player’s ages, the four above wide receivers stand out as potential dynasty values and top trade targets.
It hasn’t been my intention to talk about Chris Godwin every single month this offseason but he keeps popping up as a bargain. Godwin is being drafted as the WR20 in redraft leagues and has a current dynasty ADP of WR23. The gap isn’t huge but it is noteworthy when you consider he is just 23-years old. How often do we have the opportunity to acquire a 23-year old wide receiver at a lower cost in dynasty than in redraft?
There is also a big gap for Tyler Lockett, who is WR29 in dynasty ADP and WR21 in redraft. He is locked in on a long-term deal paired with Russell Wilson in Seattle and seems to improve every season. At age 26, he is just entering his prime and is a great target if you are looking for WR2 fantasy production over the medium-term at a relatively low price.
Mike Williams also stands out. His redraft ADP (WR23) is five spots lower than his dynasty ADP (WR28). He is a 24-year old entering his third season and has real breakout potential after a strong finish to 2018 and the departure of Tyrell Williams. The pedigree is there for the former #7 overall draft pick, which makes it even more curious how little dynasty buzz he is generating this offseason. Williams is being drafted in the same range in 2019 drafts as the slightly older Kenny Golladay, who is going off the board 25 spots earlier than Williams in dynasty startups.
The gap isn’t quite as big for Sammy Watkins (dynasty WR21 versus redraft WR19) but he too is an interesting trade target and player who often slides in startup drafts. We will talk about him more below.
The even bigger gap between 2019 best ball and dynasty ADP is for Mecole Hardman. He is being taken as a Top-35 wide receiver on DRAFT. He is the WR48 in dynasty startup ADP. He also just turned 21-years old in March. Hardman’s massive fantasy upside in the Kansas City offense has not been fully priced into his dynasty value yet.
Let’s also note Curtis Samuel in this discussion, though he is being drafted as a WR4 in best ball drafts and not a WR2 like the four players above. His WR53 dynasty ADP is notable considering he is still just 22-years old. While he’s entering his third season, he is 20 months younger than Calvin Ridley. Very quietly, Samuel was the WR19 from Week 9 through Week 17 last year. Over the second half of the season, Samuel outscored Kenny Golladay, Calvin Ridley, Jarvis Landry, and Adam Thielen. Those players are all going off the board at least four rounds ahead of Samuel in startups and Samuel is younger than all of them. While you don’t want to go too overboard with small sample sizes, there is reason to believe the light really did come on for Samuel. He is a former running back who has added significant polish since entering the NFL. He is a top trade target this summer and a good candidate to be 2019’s Tyler Boyd.
The Chiefs
There is not a clearer risk/reward spot in dynasty leagues than the Chiefs wide receiver corps. When you have a young franchise quarterback who just threw 50 touchdown passes, opportunity is a given. Either Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, or Mecole Hardman is going to be the #1 wide receiver for Patrick Mahomes II and probably an impact fantasy scorer. For those who play aggressively, it makes sense to acquire any of these players wherever the price is reasonable. Given the balance of risk and reward, it is easy to argue that all three are undervalued right now in the dynasty community.
Even if you are less of a risk taker, targeting one or more of the Chiefs wide receivers is a strong strategy if you have a good group of wide receivers. For example, if you have a solid option like Sterling Shepard or Marvin Jones sitting on your bench outside of your starting lineup, it is much easier to justify swinging for the fences on a more boom or bust option. You already have a nice fallback in the case your gamble goes bust.
As for the trade values of the players:
Tyreek Hill: Based upon recent startup ADP and trades, it seems as though Hill’s value has rebounded just a bit. It was common to see him traded for a late 2019 2nd-round pick in April and early May. Now, his value seems to be more on par with a late 2019 1st-round pick. The longer this goes with no action taken by Kansas City, the more likely it seems Hill will play in 2019. Perhaps after a six- to eight-game suspension. Even with a suspension, if Hill is on the field for the fantasy playoffs, then he is a bargain at his current trade price.
Sammy Watkins: Health will always be a concern for Watkins but he is still the safest of this trio. As noted above, Watkins is going in the top-50 overall in best ball drafts. Arguably, his dynasty value hasn’t risen fast enough and he is a bit undervalued right now given his upside if Hill isn’t a part of the team going forward.
Mecole Hardman: In rookie drafts, Hardman is a top-five wide receiver option. There is too much upside to ignore. In the long-term, even if Hill is able to return to the NFL, he is a free agent after this season. Watkins is a free agent after 2020. For now, Hardman is the only Chiefs wide receiver under contract beyond 2020.
Running Back Trade Value Chart
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
65
|
36
|
7
|
||
|
2
|
57
|
37
|
7
|
||
|
3
|
55
|
38
|
7
|
||
|
4
|
52
|
39
|
6
|
||
|
5
|
38
|
40
|
6
|
||
|
6
|
35
|
41
|
D'Onta Foreman
|
5
|
|
|
7
|
Melvin Gordon
|
35
|
42
|
5
|
|
|
8
|
32
|
43
|
5
|
||
|
9
|
30
|
44
|
5
|
||
|
10
|
Le\'Veon Bell
|
28
|
45
|
5
|
|
|
11
|
28
|
46
|
5
|
||
|
12
|
28
|
47
|
4
|
||
|
13
|
23
|
48
|
4
|
||
|
14
|
22
|
49
|
4
|
||
|
15
|
21
|
50
|
4
|
||
|
16
|
17
|
51
|
4
|
||
|
17
|
16
|
52
|
3
|
||
|
18
|
16
|
53
|
3
|
||
|
19
|
16
|
54
|
3
|
||
|
20
|
15
|
55
|
3
|
||
|
21
|
15
|
56
|
3
|
||
|
22
|
15
|
57
|
3
|
||
|
23
|
14
|
58
|
3
|
||
|
24
|
13
|
59
|
Benny Snell
|
3
|
|
|
25
|
12
|
60
|
2
|
||
|
26
|
12
|
61
|
2
|
||
|
27
|
11
|
62
|
2
|
||
|
28
|
Darrell Henderson
|
11
|
63
|
1
|
|
|
29
|
10
|
64
|
1
|
||
|
30
|
10
|
65
|
1
|
||
|
31
|
10
|
66
|
1
|
||
|
32
|
Ronald Jones
|
9
|
67
|
1
|
|
|
33
|
8
|
68
|
1
|
||
|
34
|
8
|
69
|
1
|
||
|
35
|
Mark Ingram
|
7
|
70
|
1
|
Running Back News and Notes
Best Ball Insights
Based upon age and early DRAFT best ball ADP, here are some running backs that are potentially undervalued in dynasty and who could see their dynasty trade value increase over the next few months:
Derrick Henry: 2019 best ball drafters seem to be more sold on Henry than the dynasty community. With an ADP of 28th overall (RB16), the 24-year old is being drafted near the top of the 3rd-round of 12-team best ball drafts. His dynasty ADP (44th overall) lags behind and it isn’t uncommon to see Henry fall to the 7th or 8th round of Superflex startups. Comments from the Tennessee coaches indicate they don’t see the strong 2018 finish as fluky but as something they can build on and carry over into 2019. Henry should be a workhorse back and the centerpiece of the Titans offense.
Marlon Mack: Early indications out of Indianapolis are that they view Mack as the go-to running back, which shouldn’t be surprising given that he had 25+ carries in two must-win games late last year (Week 15 and Week 17) and in the Colts’ first-round playoff win over Houston. Best ball drafters are taking Mack at an average ADP of 26th overall and it seems more and more common to see him go off the board in the 2nd round in recent weeks. He is currently going off the board in the 5th round of dynasty startup drafts. There are understandable concerns about how long Mack’s hold on the lead role in Indianapolis will last into the future. However, if Mack lives up to the expectations of best ball drafters in 2019, he should be easy to trade mid-season at a higher value than what it would cost to acquire him today.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is going higher in best ball drafts (31st overall) than in dynasty startups (38th overall). This isn’t something you see every day when you are talking about a 21-year old. Given the Oakland depth chart and how sold everyone in the Raiders organization is on Jacobs, it would be a surprise if he doesn’t put up RB2 fantasy numbers as a rookie. He won’t turn 22-years old until next offseason, so he is a good bet to see a nice jump in dynasty trade value between now and next spring.
Gurley Value Holding Steady
Without question, Todd Gurley’s value took a huge hit over the winter and spring and it felt like the bottom might fall out. Things seem to have reached at least somewhat of an equilibrium over the past month. He is generally going off the board near the 1-2 turn in startup drafts and mid-2nd in Superflex. The panic selling has also mostly stopped.
More Zeke Drama
Ezekiel Elliott had another minor off-field incident, this time a dust-up at a concert. While there is no serious impact on his dynasty value, his continued boneheaded behavior is at least enough to break ties against him. Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara have similar projections to Elliott without the minor disciplinary concerns. It is not much easier to pass on Elliott in the top three of dynasty startup drafts.
Sophomore Slump-breakers?
Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones, and Royce Freeman each suffered through disappointing rookie campaigns. While we want to take glowing OTA reports and offseason puff pieces with a grain of salt, it is encouraging to hear each of these young running backs seem to be building momentum. These backfield competitions in Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Denver are more wide-open than we might have thought in the spring. As a result, the value of these young backs has rebounded some over the last couple of months.
