Each fantasy football season the landscape of the skill positions change. One year offers more depth, while another turns into a studs and duds feel to the available player pool. Dissecting key drop off points in the positional average draft position (ADP) is critical to maximizing draft day value. Here are the key pivot points for 2019 at wide receiver:
*Not all wide receivers in the fantasy football landscape are listed, target players only*
THE BIG NINE
The initial tier includes wide receivers with a stranglehold on their No. 1 depth chart position for targets and minimal questions about their profile and quality of quarterback. Here are a few of the highlight target players
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Davante Adams
- Julio Jones
- Michael Thomas
- Odell Beckham
- Tyreek Hill
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Antonio Brown
- Mike Evans
The opening four are typically gone in the first round. Beckham, Hill, and Smith-Schuster are fringe Round 1-2 for ADP. Brown and Evans have some asterisk to their profile with Brown being his feet and helmet sagas and Evans with no Ryan Fitzpatrick safety net if Jameis Winston is yanking in and out of the lineup like last season. Both Brown and Evans are firmly in Round 2 of ADP and occasionally slip to early in Round 3.
THE tyler Lockett THRESHOLD
Ideally, a balanced draft approach in the early rounds features a Tyler Lockett-level wide receiver in the WR2-3 spot for a roster. Lockett is the WR1 for his team paired with a strong quarterback and has a sturdy floor and a reasonable ceiling. One exception is finding value with one of the 'big 3' tight ends and blending with strong running back value, making a Lockett type a fantasy roster's de facto WR1. Here are the wide receiver targets leading up to the Tyler Lockett zone of ADP:
- Stefon Diggs (Lone question is dual 1A status with Adam Thielen and potential higher level sharing of targets for Vikings than previous seasons, Round 3 ADP)
- Adam Thielen (Similar minor concern like Diggs above, Round 3 ADP)
- Keenan Allen (Entering season already dinged up, Hunter Henry back, but Tyrell Williams gone, Round 3-4 ADP)
- Amari Cooper (Unquestioned WR1 for Dallas and fantasy uptick since moving from Oakland, Round 3-4 ADP)
- Brandin Cooks (Crowded Rams receiver trio, but Cooks longest track record of them all and consistently underrated fantasy asset, Round 3-4 ADP)
- Robert Woods (Lacks high-level ceiling, but WR2/3 fantasy floor, Round 4 ADP)
- Julian Edelman (Postseason producer, but lagged in 2018 regular season, Josh Gordon wildcard, NKeal Harry drafted, logjam of running backs, Round 4-5 ADP)
- Tyler Lockett (D.K. Metcalf injured, Lockett clear WR1 and paired with Russell Wilson points to WR2 at worst fantasy option, Round 4-5 ADP)
THE POTENTIAL-or-actual WR1 VALUES
These are the lower-cost wide receivers who could be the early-season WR1 for their NFL depth chart:
- Kenny Golladay (Marvin Jones returns from injury, Danny Amendola and tight ends added, Round 6 ADP)
- Tyler Boyd (A.J. Green to miss a few games, Boyd broke out in 2018, John Ross still miring more than rising, Round 6 ADP)
- Mike Williams (Keenan Allen injured leading up to season start, Tyrell Williams gone, golden opportunity for touchdown-centric Williams step forward, Round 6 ADP)
- Jarvis Landry (LSU reunion with new teammate Odell Beckham, still room for WR2 level fantasy targets on likely uptick Cleveland offense, Round 6 ADP)
- Corey Davis (Clear WR1 but quarterback quality questions to limit fantasy WR1 probability, Round 6 ADP)
- D.J. Moore (Strong profile for Year 2-3 breakout, but Curtis Samuel could challenge targets, Round 6 ADP)
- Allen Robinson (Rebound candidate, but look of spread-it-around Chicago offense, Round 6-7 ADP)
- Will Fuller (Per-game producer in career with durability the question mark, WR1 fantasy upside even with DeAndre Hopkins dominating, Round 7-8 ADP)
- Christian Kirk-Larry Fitzgerald (Either could be WR1 in Arizona with minimal challenge for targets from below on the depth chart, Round 8-9 ADP)
THE STRONG WR2 VALUES
The exception to the 'seek No.1 receivers on NFL depth charts' rule is a WR2 with minimal competition for targets from a No. 3 target (wide receiver or tight end), or the WR2 on a potentially elite passing game.
OVERALL STRATEGY
Putting the entire position into a draft plan, here are some key targets which fit with the other skill positions to form an initial depth chart:
- Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Mike Evans in Round 2
- Amari Cooper (at worst) in Round 3
- Brandin Cooks (ideally) in Round 4
- Jarvis Landry, Corey Davis, or D.J. Moore in Round 6
Acquiring even three of the four subsets to start a fantasy depth chart sets the table for a high floor and ceiling outcome. Add one or two from the 'Strong WR2 Values' subset above and the positional build can be complete by Round 10.
With running back values stretching into the double-digit rounds for early season roles, plus a late-round approach to quarterback and tight end, being selective plus aggressive in building a quality top-4 at wide receiver is key in 2019.
