Each fantasy football season the landscape of the skill positions change. One year offers more depth, while another turns into a studs and duds feel to the available player pool. Dissecting key drop off points in the positional average draft position (ADP) is critical to maximizing draft day value. Here are the key pivot points for 2019 at tight end:
Travis kelce: the new Gronk
While the common moniker at the tight end position is the 'big 3' with Zach Ertz and George Kittle added to Kelce in the top tier, Kelce is the lone option to dabble in Round 1 of drafts and is gone by the mid-second round in nearly every league. The opportunity cost with Kelce is passing on a core RB1 or WR1 level option for the first tight end off the board. Ertz in Round 2-3 is more affordable but still in the Joe Mixon-Mike Evans zone of drafts. Kittle in the Round 3-4 zone falls within the decision-making window of Kerryon Johnson, Amari Cooper, and Brandin Cooks of the target players at running back and wide receiver in this positional article series.
the shoot the needle tier
There is bound to be a party crasher to the top-3 tight ends from 2018 in Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle. However, if paying a premium and they level off as a mid-or-low TE1, they would be a neutral or draft disappointment return on investment. The prime candidates are:
- O.J. Howard (Positive progression through two seasons, high competition for targets to temper upside, Round 5-6 ADP)
- Evan Engram (Potential top target for Giants and elite volume to crash top-3, Round 6-7 ADP)
- Hunter Henry (Missed 2018 with injury, but no Tyrell Williams and Keenan Allen injured can pave the way to requisite targets for a top-five season, Round 6-7 ADP)
- Jared Cook (Top-5 producer in 2018 on anemic Oakland offense, now upgrade to New Orleans with WR2 question marks, Round 7-8 ADP)
- Eric Ebron (TE4 in 2018 on historically rare 13 touchdowns for a tight end, Jack Doyle back and Devin Funchess added for 2019, no Andrew Luck, Round 7-8 ADP)
- Vance McDonald (Antonio Brown is gone, a golden opportunity for career year if he can stay healthy, Round 8-9 ADP)
THE murky story TIER
These options have a combination of talent, opportunity, role, or volume but not the complete package to be included in a higher tier.
- Austin Hooper (The classic high-floor but low-ceiling option as a likely low-TE1 but poor bet to crash the top-5 for true impact, Round 9 ADP)
- David Njoku (Developing talent but crowded passing game and still raw, more likely matchup-based TE1 fringe option, for now, Round 9 ADP)
- Delanie Walker (Missed 2018 with injury and mid-30s rebound season a tall order beyond low-TE1, questions at quarterback for Tennessee, Corey Davis rising as WR1, Round 10 ADP)
- Greg Olsen (Returning from injury, still a risk for recurrence, competition for targets in Carolina higher than during Olsen's peak seasons, Round 11 ADP)
- Kyle Rudolph (Grazed TE1 production last year, now Irv Smith drafted, Dalvin Cook back from injury, Round 11 ADP)
THE BEST OF THE REST
The criteria for tight ends beyond the first 10-12 rounds of a draft includes a clear lead role, quality quarterback, and ideally a weak wide receiver core. Here are the names to know:
Graham barely finished inside the top-20 of PPG last season and is clearly in erosion mode of his career. Graham has not hit 100 targets in a season since 2014 and his meager two touchdowns are bound to uptick this season based on his career average rate.
Reed is a walking injury report (missed 13 games over the past two seasons, never more than 14 games played in a season), but Washington's wide receiver depth chart is full of question marks with Reed still possessing top-5 level target potential if durability is on his size in 2019.
Eifert is in the same mold as Jordan Reed regarding his health. One difference is Eifert has not had the cascading injuries to erode his movement like Reed over the years. Eifert has been a TE1 on a per-game basis but those games have been fleeting, to the tune of 14 games over the past three seasons combined. Eifert stands to benefit from A.J. Green's early-season absence.
Goedert is the lone exception to the depth chart rule. Despite being the TE2 to Zach Ertz in Philadelphia, Goedert had five games of TE1 quality last season as a rookie. Goedert is one of the rare elite upside handcuffs at the tight end position where a Zach Ertz injury likely fuels a top-five stretch from Goedert.