You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
Since it's Week 1, I'm going to begin this series with some need-to-knows as a Footballguys subscriber.
1. Footballguys' Season-Long weekly Coverage Pages
The best way to maximize the content at Footballguys during the season is to be aware of the content we have and where to find it. The best way to do this is to click on our Season-Long Coverage pages that will show up on the home page each week and link to the weekly work designed to help you manage your teams.
There are quick links of "departments" at the top of the Season-Long Coverage pages:
- League Dominator: Formerly known as MyFootballguys, this online app allows you to customize rankings and starting lineup advice based on your league formats. Go to this page to sync your leagues with League Dominator (you can also edit your league settings anything with this link) and this app will become the best way to funnel multiple sources of Footballguys information into one place that's tailored specifically for you, including:
- Who to start?
- Sigmund Bloom's Customized Waiver Wire Report
- Roster Analysis
- Weekly Rankings
- A 5-Second Primer that will supply Footballguys' advice for your best starting lineups all on one page.
- Weekly Essentials: Whether you wish to dig into the details of recommendations that League Dominator is supplying you or you aren't using League Dominator and prefer to do your own footwork, the articles in the Essentials section are the logic behind the League Dominator Curtain:
- Monday Injury Rounds from Doctor Jene Bramel that are updated mid-week and gameday as Bramel learns more about player conditions.
- Upgrades and Downgrades that will impact lineup, waiver wire, and trade decisions (IDP included), beginning Week 2.
- Weekly Projections
- Weekly Rankings
- David Dodds' renowned Game Predictor tool, which becomes the most effective as we gather season-long data.
- Passing And Rushing Matchup analysis that profiles the statistical trends of individuals and units to uncover great, good, neutral, bad, and terrible matchups.
- Sunday Morning Updates every week from 11:00 am to 1:00 pm EST that includes weather, inactives/active announcements, and other breaking news.
- Strategy Articles: These are key pieces that our readers have found most helpful over the years
- The Gutcheck: My weekly analysis of specific players that may run contrary to popular opinion or under the radar of your competition.
- Staff Roundtable: I moderate a rotating panel of Footballguys writers who answer questions pertaining to season storylines that impact fantasy football decisions.
- Trendspotting: Ryan Hester's excellent data analysis series of key matchups to help you manage your lineups.
- Expert DRAFTing: James Brimacome's strategic look at snake draft contests on at DRAFT, a variation of the daily fantasy game.
- The Rent-A-Player Series: For those of you who are streaming quarterbacks, kickers, and defenses.
- Dynasty Content: We have you covered weekly and you're in great hands with the three writers who pen three strategy pieces below.
- Rankings
- Chad Parson's New Reality - His stock market analysis of players from a dynasty mindset.
- Waivers of the Future - Daniel Simpkins' analysis of players who have a shot of being good preemptive additions before they emerge.
- Dynasty Trade Value Charts - Dan Hindery's helpful monthly analysis that I personally recommend as an avid dynasty player.
- Individual Defensive Players (IDP): Aaron Rudnicki, John Norton, Darin Tietgen, Dave Larkin, and Daniel Simpkins are all excellent IDP players I compete with annually. Rudnick and Norton have been writing about IDP longer than many of your kids have been alive. We cover the gamut
- Weekly Projections from Norton and Tietgen
- Rudnicki's IDP Matchups Spreadsheet Workbook is a must-read because it breaks down the stadium stat crews that will help you maximize their tendencies with awarding tackles and assists, which can be subjective. This is a great tool for activities beyond IDP leagues.
- Larkin's weekly matchup analysis
- Simpkins' advice for big-play formats
- Norton's inimitable Eyes of the Guru
- Statistics: Dig into all the data you want for individual players, team stats, game data, targets, red zone stats, and historical information. Doug Drinen, the man who founded Pro Football Reference, is the mastermind of our stats resources at Footballguys. You're in awesome hands. The best page to bookmark is Footballguys' Fantasy Football Statistics Page
- Features: Beginning Week 2 a number of features will debut that takes a different and compelling look at many of the topics above. I will be recommending many of these at various points during the year.
Matt's Recommendations: You should simply go to our home page every Monday and look for our Season Long Coverage page and use it as your weekly guide for information. However, if you want specific recommendations, here's my personal list of favorites from among all of the awesome content:
- Waiver Wire Report
- Upgrades and Downgrades
- Jene Bramel's Injury Rounds
- Fantasy Football Statistics Page - This is the easiest way to access all of our data offerings with explanations included.
- Sunday Morning Updates
- League Dominator
- The Top 10 - If you don't think your own work is worth a look, then why are you doing it? More on this in a moment.
- Aaron Rudnicki's IDP Matchups Workbook
- Trendspotting
If you at least look at these pieces each week, you'll gain the quality of analysis that covers your teams' spectrum of needs in-depth. And if I only could recommend one from this page AT LEAST, use the League Dominator.
2. FOOTBALLGUYS' Daily Fantasy Sports COVERAGE PAGEs
The same format discussed above is also available from our Daily Fantasy writers. I will frequently draw upon these articles to highlight analysis that is also useful for re-draft formats. Many of these analysis pieces are customized for the variety of daily fantasy outlets that people play, including DraftKings, FanDuel, Drafting, Yahoo, and FantasyDraft.
Matt's Recommendations
Here are departments included with the Daily Fantasy Page that will be available weekly on the Footballguys' home page:
- Interactive Value Charts for College and NFL Daily Fantasy Games at FanDuel and DraftKings are important pieces.
- Steve Buzzard, a multi-million-dollar earner in the space, estimates ownership in GPP contests as well as ways to look for weekly edges at FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Wisdom of the Staff shares various opinions on DFS topics.
- David Dodds' Cost/Value Chart compares Footballguys' weekly projections against various DFS game formats.
- Sharp Report - Ryan Zamichieli does a fantastic job looking at which players the leading DFS pros are using for the week ahead.
- Vegas Value Chart - John Lee's early look at the Vegas Odds depicting implied team totals for guidance in DFS player selection.
- eVALUEator - Maurile Tremblay and Austin Lee create and update a position-based table depicting DFS salaries to identify which sites are best to play specific players.
I seldom have the time to play DFS so I'm not going to claim expertise on the subject. However, friends of mine like Austin Lee and Jene Bramel do. These seven sources of information should help you get started and learn the game within the game.
3. Footballguys Podcasts
Footballguys Podcasts and are informative, in-depth, convenient for your commute, and entertaining. We have a wide range of offerings available on iTunes and Google but also on YouTube. Subscribe to our YouTube Channel, Footballguys TV and leave a "Thumbs Up" and comment!.
My recommendations below.
The Audible LIVE!
Every Thursday night at 10:00 pm EST, Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, Jene Bramel and me discuss the news, injuries, and fantasy-related need-to-knows for the coming week.
The DFS Power Grid
Austin Lee, Devin Knotts, Ryan Hester, and John Lee convene for weekly Daily Fantasy intel.
On the Couch with Sigmund Bloom
Bloom hosts an hour-long weekly format where he digs deep with some of fantasy football's leading writers around the industry.
In-Season Sunday Morning Show
Bloom, Bramel, and I preview the Sunday games--one of our more popular shows.
4. Matt Waldman's Top 10 Article
Most of the essential reading I recommended for the Season-Long pages directly inform Footballguys' Projections. My Top 10 Article does not. However, it is one of the most widely-read pieces during the season because it offers early visual evidence and analysis of what's happening on the field.
I watch between 10-14 games on Sunday and Monday morning, record video analysis throughout these sessions and post 10 insights about players, units, and teams with this supporting video information in the article.
These are actionable insights that can help you short-term and long-term. Bill Belichick credited the Detroit Lions for showing him a path to limit the Rams' offense in the Super Bowl. I shared that path in my Week 14 piece months before and explained which teams had a chance to limit the Rams during the most important fantasy weeks of the year:
A big part of the Rams' passing offense is the screen game to Todd Gurley. Below is a picture-perfect illustration of how linemen set up for a screen pass.
Beautiful illustration of the #Rams OL in position on the screen pass.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018
They make a square alignment that Gurley runs through--two backside protectors, two downhill pic.twitter.com/RI6Mhvyxa4
This was the only good screen that the Rams ran all day against the Lions. Detroit shut down all variations of Los Angeles' screen game and many of its outlet receivers for the rest of the contest.
#DetroitLions foil the #Rams screen game at the end of the half with a twist on one side and both DEs closing off the passing lane to Gurley on the middle screen. pic.twitter.com/Rw8TcoUW3D
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018
Here's a pair of fourth-quarter plays where the #DetroitLions foil a TE screen and after that an attempted check-down to Josh Reynolds who was bunched at the line. Good work holding the potential check players at the line
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018
OR, dropping to the flat just enough to be over top. pic.twitter.com/Rh89F1t9kV
#DetroitLions DE does an excellent job sliding off the LT to take Gurley working around end to the flat. Near pick-six of #Rams Jared Goff pic.twitter.com/XCCs8s4KGy
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018
In addition to closing off outlets for Goff, the Lions did great work implementing twists for its edge players and interior linemen. You saw some of this against screen plays but it also confused the Rams' offensive line on other plays.
#DetroitLions nice job of pressuring Jared Goff and foiling the #Rams oline at the end of the half. pic.twitter.com/OSWKAjuVZs
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018
These methods—in addition to the physical play of receivers in bunch set, which you'll see a little later in this column, is valuable intel for upcoming opponents on ways to slow Sean McVay's offense. Goff is a good player against pressure but he's more Brady-like than Mahomes. He's a better thrower on the move than Brady or Matt Ryan — he's actually significantly above average in this area.
Good movement by Jared Goff on this target to Josh Reynolds. #Rams pic.twitter.com/zvagtGBC7O
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018
Like Brady, he has an excellent feel for smaller adjustments so he can maintain his base and fire away.
Jared Goff with the Tom Brady pocket movement bails out his line and Robert Woods bails out Goff's throw opposite field. #Rams pic.twitter.com/BFW1pOOuEc
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018
Still, there's a line between greatness and failure that occurs when pressure is too intense for a pocket quarterback. The Lions frequently took Goff to this place.
#Rams Jared Goff and Robert Woods:
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018
The fine line between greatness and failure. pic.twitter.com/UD5FIHivFh
The Bears, Eagles, and Cardinals have the pass rushers to challenge the Rams in similar ways. Expect the Bears and its secondary to pose a worthwhile challenge. The Eagles could do the same if its secondary can get healthy.
The Cardinals will need to generate more consistent offense to have a chance. If Mitchell Trubisky returns and his Jekyll-Hyde tendencies don't emerge, the Bears could seriously challenge the Rams' offense.
The Lions limited Goff to 207 yards a touchdown, an interception, and a fumble lost. The Bears could make it another disappointing week for the Rams' passing game (which means count on only one receiver to produce — likely Woods) and if the Eagles secondary gets healthy, Goff could wind up a fantasy playoff disappointment. Monitor this closely.
In addition to Week 14's work, there were several other valuable insights throughout the year:
- Supporting evidence that Baker Mayfield's debut showed the likelihood of lasting productivity for the year.
- Nick Chubb was worth acquiring early and holding onto despite the Carlos Hyde, Hue Jackson, and Todd Haley debacle.
- Calvin Ridley's emergence as more than a Week 4 occurrence.
- Carson Wentz was back on the field but I explained in September why he was not back as a fantasy producer.
- The odds being against Mitchell Trubisky developing as a franchise quarterback.
- Mike McCoy not using David Johnson productively in the passing game.
- Wide receiver Mike Williams' emergence.
- Cam Newton's improved short game to Christian McCaffrey and promise ahead that made McCaffrey a fantasy stud.
While I certain have my share of takes that don't work out, there are many other quality analysis points I could have mentioned here. The Top 10 will be available every Monday evening throughout the season. Here's my 2019 season preview.
5. Ryan Hester's Trendspotting
This is one of my favorite weekly pieces on the site. I often use my film insights to pair with Hester's data work to deliver advice in this weekly article you're reading right now. Here's how Hester introduces the article for new readers this week:
Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2019 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.
Week 1 Introduction
In typical weeks, we'll jump straight into the column. But with this being Week 1, we have no 2019 data to use to form trends and make recommendations. Since this week's column will be a little light on the actual #Trendspotting, we'll use this section to introduce some of the topics that will appear in the column throughout the season.
Section Name | Description |
Follow the Targets | Examining how defenses allow targets, yards, and touchdowns to the RB, WR, and TE positions. |
Strengths and Weaknesses | Dissecting how offenses gain yards (% via pass and % via rush) and how defenses allow them. |
How Will They Score? | Using Vegas lines combined with how teams score and allow points to determine how they'll score. |
The Weakest Links | Highlighting matchups to be exploited. |
Tweets of the Week | Interesting, noteworthy, and informative tweets to help identify fantasy recommendations. |
Looks Can Be Deceiving | Comparing raw "Defense vs. Position" stats vs. Footballguys Normalized Strength of Schedule. |
Now #Trending | Using recent DvP stats vs. the prior portion of the season to identify teams improving or declining. |
Playcalling Preferences | Identifying the most pass-heavy and run-heavy teams and comparing them to opponents. |
Going Deep | Identifying offenses that throw the most and defenses that face the most deep attempts. |
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo | Using situation-neutral tempo to identify fast-paced matchups for the week. |
Game of the Week | Taking a deep dive into the best plays in the week's most popular game. |
Some of these features can debut as early as next week, but some (like our Normalized Strength of Schedule) require at least four weeks of data to be useful.
Hester then introduces the topics for the week:
My favorite this week are past play-calling preferences. Seattle ran 55.7 percent of the time last year, the highest percentage in the league and Cincinnati faced the rush 45.5 percent of its defensive plays last year, the seventh-highest in the league.
It's clear that Chris Carson is a strong play. So is Mark Ingram when looking at the Ravens running the ball 52.1 percent last year and Miami facing the run 47.1 percent.
I'll even add that if there's a surprise waiver wire back that comes out of Week 1 it could be C.J. Prosise, the talented second-round back who thrilled as a rookie for a couple of games and hasn't stayed healthy since. He played so well in August that Pete Carroll has suggested Prosise could earn a substantial role as a contributor, which could hurt Rashaad Penny.
If the percentages play out as described above, we may see evidence of Prosise's value as soon as Sunday.
Thanks again for reading and I hope these insights help you get the most from Footballguys this week and throughout the season.