EMMANUEL SANDERS IS NOT ERIC DECKER
I'll repeat...Emmanuel Sanders is NOT Eric Decker. But that's okay. In fact, it may even be good news; as productive as Eric Decker has been in his time with Peyton Manning, there are many reasons to think Emmanuel Sanders is an even better fit in Adam Gase's offense.
- Size -- Sanders (5'11, 180 lbs.) vs. Decker (6'3", 217 lbs.)
- Speed -- Sanders (4.41 40-yard dash) vs. Decker (4.54 40-yard dash)
- Hands -- Sanders (4.5% drop rate) vs. Decker (8.4% drop rate)
- Red Zone (3 years) -- Sanders (8 TDs in 27 targets) vs. Decker (24 TDs in 40 targets)
- Yards after the Catch (3 years) -- Sanders (3.4 yards) vs. Decker (2.5 yards)
BEN ROETHLISBERGER IS VERY GOOD, PEYTON MANNING IS MUCH BETTER
Ben Roethlisberger is a terrific NFL quarterback. He's won two Super Bowls and been to three, and plays through pain while completing a high percentage of his throws. Plenty of NFL wide receivers would love the chance to catch passes from Roethlisberger, but EVERY NFL wide receiver would give Roethsliberger his walking papers to be in the huddle with Peyton Manning. We don't need to trot out a tale of the tape to compare these two. Manning is coming off the best passing season in NFL history and there's no reason to think he can't maintain a level of play that trumps all else.
IS MANNING GOOD ENOUGH TO DISCOUNT SANDERS' STRUGGLES AS A STARTER?
Yes. The Steelers offense has been inconsistent under OC Todd Haley. It appeared to round into shape as the year went on, but it would be an egregious error to look at Sanders modest accomplishments (zero 100-yard games, 11 touchdowns in four seasons) and assume he's incapable of much more. Remember, the Broncos made Sanders a priority in free agency and our own Cecil Lammey has had glowing things to say about Sanders throughout the early preseason.
"The talk of the team has easily been Emmanuel Sanders. He’s immediately wowed media in attendance for practice, teammates and members of the coaching staff.
Speed is the name of the game with Sanders. He has the speed to be a deep target for the Broncos, and he can fly by defenders to haul in passes over his shoulder.
In addition to being fast, Sanders is incredibly quick as well. This quickness helps him get off the line of scrimmage cleanly. Defenders playing press coverage at the line may find Sanders difficult to jam at the snap.
His speed and quickness also help Sanders pick up yards after the catch. He can run short routes, haul them in cleanly and is a threat to score every time he has the ball. Sanders can also pull away from defenders on deep targets with an extra gear in the open field."
Demaryius Thomas is also excited:
“Sanders is too fast. He’s quick and fast at the same time. Some guys are quick or fast, and you’ve got Wes [Welker], who’s quick. Sanders is quick and fast. But I think it’ll be great for the team, because he can go over the top, he can be quick, he’s can go inside. I think it’s a big pickup for us. I think he’ll be great.”
Last but not least, OC Adam Gase is thrilled:
"When you watch him on film from when he was at Pittsburgh, you just see that quickness off the line, the vertical speed, his ability to separate down the field. We’ve seen basically all that same stuff we saw, so he hasn’t lost any of that within the last year—or the last four months, whatever it’s been. It’s a different kind of dimension for us."
WES WELKER ISN'T THE PLAYER WE REMEMBER FROM HIS PATRIOT DAYS
Wes Welker is by no means washed up. He remains an important component of the offensive juggernaut in Denver. But, I think fantasy owners are holding onto his years in New England a bit too much, which is creating a value arbitrage opportunity on draft day. Current ADP puts Wes Welker 43rd overall (4th round pick in 12-team leagues), compared to Sanders' ADP of 79 (7th round pick). It's hard to fathom Welker outperforming Sanders this year, but that's the consensus view -- for now. Welker has had multiple concussions, and has to be considered a far greater risk of significant missed time as a result. And let's not forget that Welker had just 23 receptions in the second half of the season. Even if you assume Welker gets the same number of targets this year (111), Sanders should still be in line for 120-150 targets (Decker averaged 135 targets in two seasons with Manning).
POSITIVES
- Peyton Manning is the best passer in the league, and Sanders gets inserted into a role that made Eric Decker a top tier fantasy option
- Sanders has been an immediate star in Broncos OTAs and mini-camp, his adjustment period should be minimal
- Sanders has more vertical speed, better hands and is faster off the line than Decker
NEGATIVES
- The Broncos have weapons up and down the roster, no one player will be targeted if the defensive game plan doesn't allow for it
- Sanders didn't enjoy a break out season in 2013 and has never had a 100-yard game, buying him at my projections means buying into another step forward
- Sanders doesn't have the high point ball skills that Eric Decker does, making Sanders less of a sure bet in the red zone
FINAL THOUGHTS
Emmanuel Sanders isn't Eric Decker. However, it appears fantasy owners are making the same mistake with Sanders they made with Decker in years past. Those of you who think Wes Welker is going to outperform Sanders aren't appreciating their respective roles in this offense. Sanders in 27 years old, in his prime, and was targeted in free agency to replace Decker. Our own Cecil Lammey (who covers the Broncos daily for ESPN) notes that Sanders has stepped right into the offense and shined. Even my fellow staffers are underappreciating Sanders' role. If he stays healthy for 16 games, Sanders base case should be considered 70 receptions, with his upside being far higher. He runs good routes, already has rapport with the best quarterback in league history, and will rarely if ever be the focal point of opposing defenses. Do yourselves a favor and buy low now before his ADP adjusts once the preseason gets underway.
PROJECTIONS
Emmanuel Sanders Projections
| YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | PIT | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 22 | 288 | 2 | |
| 2012 | PIT | 16 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 75 | 44 | 626 | 1 | |
| 2013 | PIT | 16 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 112 | 67 | 740 | 6 | |
| 2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 61 | 763 | 7 | 0 | |
| 2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 890 | 8 | 0 | |
| 2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 1060 | 7 | 0 | |
| 2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 64 | 767 | 8 | 1 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Footballguys' own Cecil Lammey says Sanders is going to be a big part of the Broncos offense (Bleacher Report):
Sanders could prove to be an upgrade over Decker. First, he’s faster than Decker and can run vertical routes to stretch the defensive coverage. Second, he is quicker than Decker off the line of scrimmage. This quickness not only helps him at the snap but also when he makes his breaks at the stem of the route.
Sanders can gain separation in ways that Decker could not. This means he can get open easier than Decker did.
Peyton Manning’s favorite receiver is the open guy. Sanders has the type of skill set that has made him a favorite of the coaching staff this offseason.
The Huddle's John Tuvey says Sanders is a sleeper, but don't expect him to match Eric Decker's numbers:
It would be aggressive to simply slot Sanders for Decker’s digits given he’s never topped 800 yards or a half dozen touchdowns in his NFL career. But being on the business end of Peyton’s passes has meant big things for plenty of otherwise unproven receivers before; even if it’s Welker climbing the charts and Sanders “settling” for top 20 fantasy WR numbers, he’s a bustout waiting to happen.