1. the Packers went tilt on Aaron Rodgers and paid the price
Green Bay went on a seven-week diet that emphasized regular servings of the ground game from run-centric alignments and its quarterback under center. While the Packers went 3-4 during that span, Brett Hundley's inexperience prevented the offense from capitalizing on easy opportunities that the ground game generated.
This is what many people misunderstand about good quarterbacking. It's less about the quarterback's ability to do something amazing as it is to find the simple solutions consistently enough so the difficult plays aren't necessary.
Hundley played some of his best football during the final two minutes of games, but often missed the quick reads and throws that would have set the offense up for easy down-and-distance plays. Some of this has to do with his lack of rapport with his receivers, but a lot of it had to do with him getting a feel for the road.
Think of quarterbacking as driving. There are the rules of the road, the technical operation of the vehicle, weather conditions, and the behavior of other drivers. Young drivers learn all of these skills, but their knowledge is often "on paper" or developed in highly controlled practice settings.
For example, it's difficult to explain to a young driver how they should handle routine scenarios that can't be separated into neat little categories, but require an integration of all these skills plus strong doses of wisdom:
- Why using the horn in the Caribbean is much different than the Midwestern and Southern regions of the U.S.
- Which cities and countries require aggressive driving that might engender road rage in other places.
- Handling clueless drivers who attempt to give up their right of way at crowded intersections.
And that rush was oh so good that even the parents — sorry, the coaches — got lost in the sugar high of its All-Pro quarterback's return. Next thing you know, the Packers decide to abandon the heavy sets, spread the field, and use the pass to set up the run.
Watching Jones burst through the line so easily thanks to these sets and Rodgers' presence, you could also hear Green Bay thinking, "Mmm, mmm, mmm! It's so sweet and tasty and we feel so good. We could eat the entire box!"
Like any mortal who has abstained from something for a long time, they can easily forget their limits when they return to it. Here's Rodgers attempting a sideline route with a lineman in his lap and his feet parallel.
"Yeah, that piece of candy sent a shiver through my teeth, but tt was only one piece. My buddy Randall is waving for me to try the fudge sampler at the end of the aisle..."
Rodgers and Cobb both think that Colin Jones has shallow zone and neither anticipate Jones flipping his hips, getting underneath position, and continuing with Cobb's pattern. Feeling lightheaded from the sugar high, the Packers' eyes remain bigger than their stomachs. The ground game was nothing more than a glass of water to clear its collective palate for the next sweet treat.
With their tolerance already low from the long layoff, it didn't take long for the side effects to show up.
While Rodgers threw three touchdowns in this game, he also threw three interceptions and forced the offense away from a ground game that it could have used to keep its struggling defense off the field and maintain a greater time of possession. You may argue that's part of having a great player like Aaron Rodgers. But why draft two running backs, learn that ground game works, and then dump it to the side of the road at the first sign of Rodgers' return?
After watching this game, I'm pretty sure the entire offense pleaded the driver to stop the bus so they could run to the nearest open field and purge themselves of their candy binge. They'll likely have the entire month of January off to get better.
If the Packers staff to act like most parents and let their kid have another sugar binge next week, which means fantasy owners should count on a pass-heavy scheme that raises the values of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Aaron Jones. If they're more sensible, expect more Jamaal Williams against a Vikings defense that let the Panthers run over them two weeks ago.
I'm betting on less sensible parents. We'll see.
2. TEAMS ARE FIGURING OUT THAT BRANDIN COOKS STRUGGLES AGAINST MAN COVERAGE
Earlier this season, I wrote about Cooks' issues with man coverage. It's something I've noted about him since he was at Oregon State. Cooks is a good NFL receiver, but he's not a great one and the expectations that he'd deliver more than low-end fantasy WR1 production was one based on overvaluing athletic ability and undervaluing technical skill.
The Dolphins exploited Cooks last Monday thanks to a fantastic game from cornerback Xavien Howard. Pittsburgh noted that performance and opted to switch its normal defensive gameplan from a zone-heavy scheme to a man-heavy approach.
Cooks still managed 60 yards and a touchdown, but there were notable targets where he struggled. Considering that Pittsburgh altered the core philosophy of its defense despite a group of cornerbacks he drafted to play more zone than man, kept the game close to the very end, and Cooks wasn't a significant factor in the second half of this game, I'd say the strategy was not only successful but a notable indication that Cooks' value is currently at its ceiling.
While the route below may be a fade, it doesn't mean the receiver should fade away from the target. Cooks not only fails with his attempt to release from the line of scrimmage, he doesn't have the right plan for addressing the target at the top of his stem.
These are longstanding issues with Cooks' game. Again, he's a good receiver and a fantasy asset. However, do not expect Cooks to become a top-five fantasy receiver in New England thanks to the magical thinking, "he'll have a full year in the offense and that acclimation will make him better."
That kind of explanation is sportswriter fluff. Yes, Cooks should get sharper at reading coverage adjusting to it the way Brady wants him to, but for Cooks to ascend to a higher tier, he'll need to develop greater skill against tight man coverage. Until I see it, I won't believe the hype.
Neither should you.
3. the rams pushed around the Seahawks in all three phases of football
Despite some disappointment over the outcome, I fully appreciated how well the Rams pushed around the Seahawks in every facet of the game. Here's Ethan Westbrooks shutting down the run before it could even begin.
Los Angeles recently moved Westbrooks to the nose so it could get some size in the middle of its defense and generated a push up the middle to stop the run and while he won't be a consistent IDP value (despite two sacks in Week 13), he's freeing up Aaron Donald and the rest of this front.
Here's Donald and Connor Barwin running an excellent twist. Barwin patiently gets depth towards the right tackle and forces the tackle off his double-team of Donald, leading to one of seven sacks of Russell Wilson.
Several of these sacks came courtesy of guard Luke Joeckel. The former top pick of the Jaguars switched from left tackle to guard during his final season with Jacksonville and arrived in Seattle to the usual Pete Carroll welcome of rainbows and unicorns. When Joeckel has been healthy enough to see the field, he hasn't been good.
Whether it's injury or is baseline level of play, Joeckel illustrated that he overextends to his opponent at the point of attack. This leaves him vulnerable to a variety of moves from a savvy defensive tackle — and calling the masterful Donald "savvy" would be an insulting understatement.
Los Angeles also spent the entire day pushing around Seattle's defense like they didn't even belong in the same league.
The Rams' skill players were also peeling back to throw shots. Here's Tyler Higbee coming off the ropes to deliver a hard shoulder into Earl Thomas for the three-count. Higbee dished out two of these blocks on Sunday.
The Rams' punt coverage team even got into the act. Second-year wide receiver Mike Thomas lost his shot to compete for significant playing time this summer due to PED-related suspension but he's been an asset as the first man downfield on returns.
Even if he's not a player worth adding to rosters in most leagues at this time, Thomas is worth monitoring if there are injuries at the top of the depth chart. He's endeared himself to the coaching staff for his special teams play. Already capable of some of the most impressive aerial displays of pass-catching that I've seen from rookie prospects since Odell Beckham, Jr. and Paul Richardson Jr, Thomas showed signs of development as a receiver in camp before his suspension.
The Rams still have a shot at hosting a home playoff game so look for its starters to dismantle the Tennessee Titans in Week 16. If you have a share of the Rams passing game, I'd be excited — especially if you have Robert Woods.
4. Robert Woods Report card
I didn't see any rust from Woods or major rapport issues between him and Jared Goff. Woods didn't have any problems taking contact and making plays after the catch.
Woods also displayed the strong route running skills that the Rams coveted this offseason. This release against Byron Maxwell is a great illustration of varying the rhythm and pattern of footwork to test the patience of cornerbacks who've studied the film and expected something else.
The Titans gave up some huge plays in the middle of the field to Kendrick Bourne and Garrett Celek yesterday. Look for Woods and Cooper Kupp to have a strong outing thanks to these linebackers reacting hard to the play-action game that Todd Gurley's running generates.
5. jimmy garoppolo and separating the dark from the dark
When it comes to Garoppolo's trio of starts, I am already among the converted even I still have a minor reservation. In 2014, a team executive asked me to share additional thoughts on Garoppolo before the draft.
I liked a lot of Garoppolo's individual skills but worried that his overall game might not equal the sum of his parts. I saw potential issues with his reactions to pressure and had concerns that if he didn't land in a supportive situation, it could develop into a knockout factor that would stunt his future development.
The team's scouts liked Garoppolo but it turned out that he wasn't the front office's top choice at the position. Now that I've seen Garoppolo's first three starts, I'm looking forward to revisiting his work at Eastern Illinois during the offseason.
I want to see if misinterpreted a facet of Garoppolo's technique as a thrower. If so, it should be easily apparent when I revisit the tape. If not, I'll be waiting for more starts in 2018 to determine two things:
- Did his time in New England significantly enhance his work from the pocket?
- Will 2018 opponents continue blitzing Garoppolo and will it magnify small things I'm still seeing from him right now?
If I were to predict an answer right now, I'd say that it's a combination of both factors. Garoppolo's tendency to lean away from the line of scrimmage during his release often appeared as if he was perceiving pressure — even when it wasn't remotely near him. However, it may also be a by-product of his footwork and release technique, which is highly efficient.
This skill for snapping the hips into the release process helps him slingshot the ball. It's something that most top NFL quarterbacks do well. Matt Ryan does this well but I'll argue that Garoppolo's footwork is lighter and smoother.
The fact that Garoppolo is making a half a dozen of these throws weekly is a great indication of his technical development, which started well before he was in New England. If you don't read this link, then you will be one of the millions of people who think that Garoppolo learned to throw like Tom Brady in New England and you'll be wrong.
You'll also see a lot of breathless 49ers fans making Montana and Young comparisons. While there's no basis for these comparisons in most areas that matter most, where this actually has merit is Garoppolo's quiet feet. While I highlighted this facet of his game last week, it's worth revisiting.
As impressed as I am with Garoppolo — and I really am — there are some facets of his game that still have me in "wait-and-see" mode. One of them is a tendency to react to pressure too early.
This target could be easily interpreted as an anticipatory throw. However, the Garoppolo reads the blitz and delivers the ball off his back foot a little more than he needs to. Yes, he wants to loft the ball, but his mechanics result in him underthrowing a target that should have led the receiver to the back of the end zone.
I'm already anticipating that Garoppolo will not be around as a low-end QB1 in August 2018 drafts. It's a steep price that I won't pay unless there are significant upgrades to the offense around him. Even so, I understand the excitement.
I can't wait to watch this weekend's matchup with the Jaguars because Jacksonville should be a Garoppolo's stiffest test to date. If you're thinking about starting him this weekend, I'd project him for close to 300 yards, a touchdown, and at least one interception — he got away with a few throws that I don't think Jacksonville will allow.
6. The Vikings exploited a decimated Bengals LB corps
Depending on your various levels of "need," it would be worth your while to consider Eric Ebron, Golden Tate, Theo Riddick, Amir Abdullah, and Tion Green this weekend. They face a depleted Cincinnati linebacking corps that looked lost against the Vikings running backs, tight ends, and receivers working the flats and the middle of the field.
I have to think Riddick will be the best play among the backs and Ebron could remain a solid start, despite the years of disappointment preceding his recent productive stretch.
7. The calls for Marlon mack earlier this year were ill-advised
I appreciate Marlon Mack's potential. I think he has a good shot at becoming a productive every-down fantasy option within the next two years. However, he was lower in my pre-draft rankings than most because I knew that he was a raw running back in the areas that matter most: ball security, pass protection and running between the tackles.
Landing with the Colts was a huge blessing that I hope he's taking advantage of because Frank Gore is a master craftsman as a decision maker between the tackles. I've written in the past that NFL position coaches share Gore's tape with young backs for this very reason.
Thursday night's game gave us two of the same play design — one from each back — that reveals the differences in savvy between the two players between the tackles. The play is a windback run. Mack doesn't press the run close enough to the line of scrimmage and it prevents him from earning any significant cutback lane.
Soon after, the Colts ran the same play with Gore. Watch how deep Gore gets to the line and the way it manipulates the first and second level of the defense. It's this press that opens a crease for Gore on the backside.
As long as Gore still has short-area quickness and the strength and balance to cut like he does, he'll remain in the NFL. I'd like
