Déjà Vu. I've experienced it many times. One of the most memorable happened when I transferred to the University of Georgia.
I had a dream eight months earlier—before applying to the school—that I was sitting in a classroom with brown carpeting, white walls and those seat-desktop combos with aluminum legs, MDF woodgrain tops, and plastic seats. At the front of the room was an older man standing in front of a large desk and a chalkboard hung behind it.
The man was bald on the top of his head and had tightly trimmed white hair on the side of his head. He wore glasses a white shirt and dress slacks. He leaned against the desk, told a joke that I thought was funny, and I laughed with the rest of the class.
I told a friend of mine about the dream because it was an odd thing to remember at the time. That August, I moved to Athens and attended a new student orientation at the Tate Center. I had been to Georgia in the past but I had never set foot into a Tate classroom.
About 10 minutes into the session, I experienced this strange feeling that I had been there before. The old man looked familiar although I had never seen him in my life. I looked away from him and the shade and pattern of the carpet and the style of the desks also seemed familiar.
The entire setting—sights, sounds, and patterns—nagged me in the same way you have a feeling that you're forgetting something important as you leave for work and you know you won't realize what it is until you're at your desk. Speaking of desks, it was when I looked back at the old man that things got freaky.
The old man is gonna lean back against that desk, tell a joke, and I'm gonna laugh in
3...
2...
1...
What I thought happened in exactly that order and on cue. The joke was funny, too, but I don't remember it because the eerie feeling that I knew exactly what was going to happen shook me up. I rose from my desk, left the classroom, and leaned against the wall in the empty hallway just outside the door for about five minutes before I went back inside.
If it were my buddy Bloom telling this story, you'd have good reason to suspect that he was still "readjusting to reality" after a Phish concert. I didn't follow bands around the country so there are only two likely explanations. Déjà Vu is real or I'm not right in the head.
Most will bet on the second possibility and I'm ok with it. If you're one of the few who believes in my Déjà Vu-like powers or you can't wait to see my malfunctions in action, here are five Déjà Vu experiences I've had this summer about what we'll be experiencing as fantasy owners (admittedly, I just finished staining a section of my fence this afternoon and the fumes may be stronger than I realized):
1. "Even We Didn't see" Spencer Ware playing like this...
The power running game wears down defenses—even good units. Ware is the quintessential, grind-you-to-dust power runner. He's quick and agile enough to prevent defenders from delivering a direct shot but he's also the first to score a direct hit when delivering contact. Ware's style makes "good second-effort" sound like an insult to his relentlessness.
The bandwagon hoppers of late see strong stats, an injured starter, and an opportunity to zig as the masses zag. All good. But they will be freaking out by Halloween that Ware is for real.
Ware was my No.4 running back in the 2012 RSP. Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard were 1-2. My No.3 back Jonathan Franklin had one strong game against the Bengals and his career was over by the end of the contest. Le'Veon Bell was my No.5 back and it may seem low, but I'll remind you that I was the most vocal supporter of Bell having the agility to thrive in the NFL and that was before fantasy owners attempted to rationalize that Bell's quickness was from weight loss.
Marcus Lattimore was No.6 due to injury concerns. Christine Michael? No.7.
"Michael can run over, around, or away from just about anyone on a football field but he's having a lot of trouble fighting himself. If he an't figure that out, and Lattimore doesn't come back healthy, I'd take him over Lacy in a heartbeat. If he can't, MIchael will bounce around the league for a few years and be out of football."
By the way, Ware was earning time ahead of Michael and Robert Turbin early in their rookie seasons and a scout told me that the Seahawks considered Ware a running back—not a fullback—with a bright future. Ware dropped due to behavior concerns at LSU and then bounced from Seattle due to two DWIs.
Here's my 2013 RSP profile on Ware:
A note to first-time readers who use this information for creating a fantasy football draft plan: Don't draft Ware remotely near this area of my board unless you have a draft before the post-draft version of the RSP is available and a team shocks the draft media by taking the LSU back in the opening two rounds of the NFL preceedings.
I'm ranking Ware this high because I believe his is how good he is and unlike Marcus Lattimore—there are no health impediments limiting his potential. In fact, I wish I could rank Ware lower but what I've seen prevents me from doing so.
Ware reminds me of Marion Barber because he has similar dimensions, runs with great pad level, is willing to deliver punishment, and has the lateral agility to make cuts and spins to [elude] defenders. This is something that I think some folks are missing when they watch Ware in action.
Although not a fast player in the second and third level of a defense, Ware has enough burst to bounce some runs outisd eand I've seen this against some of the fastest defenses in the SEC, which is generally a good sign. One major indicator of his talent [has been] his ability to consistently avoid penetration in the backfield...
If a defense crowds the box to stop Ware and the offense executes the right play, Ware can break a long [gain] but it's not something he'd place at the top of his running back resume. What Ware does best is make defenders put on their hip boots and wade into a long day filled with dirty work without a break. The LSU runner as the strength to punish all three levels of defenders at the end of a run. He's a tough runner with a good array of fakes but the motive is alway to get down field and finish strong...
"Punishing" is the word that epitomizes Ware's game. He's an aggressive hitter as a blocker and can deliver a hard punch. He often gets under the skin of defenders for his intensity of play...
He's the type of back who can carry his offense down the field and [create] advantageious down and distance situations. Ware was a former high school wide reciever and it showed when he was targeted in rare instances....hell be a fine outlet player on screens, swings, and flat routes.
Ware reminds me of a mix of Marshawn Lynch and Marion Barber in terms of running style...I think he's the most underrated talent in this class.
Déjà Vu Special: By midseason, a small percentage of Ware owners are going to get trade offers involving stud receivers. Most of those Ware owners drafted stud receivers first, so they won't need another. A minor concern will be if and when Jamaal Charles is ready to return in 2017. The real concern will be the Week 16 matchup with the Broncos defense.
2. Matt Stafford-Marvin Jones will be the Top Pitch-and-Catch Combo Heading into Week 7.
Calvin Johnson, we thought we'd miss you but Marvin Jones is on fire. It's not that Jones is better than Johnson. I might have inadvertently huffed some fumes but I'm not that bad off. Johnson not only commanded double and triple teams, his presence commanded Stafford to force the ball into coverage. When a quarterback has a game-changing player that has proven he can make good in these situations and little else until last year, that quarterback can lean too hard on a great player.
Johnson was a good route runner—a surprisingly good one for his size—but Jones is technically more sound. Johnson's athletic profile combined with his skills with routes and after the catch makes him the better player without question. But no receiver can be in five places at the same time and the Lions needed more options that would be where they're supposed to and make plays when targeted.
With Anquan Boldin, Golden Tate, Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdullah, and possibly Eric Ebron or Cole Wick, the Lions are much closer to giving Stafford the support system where the offense actually benefits when its quarterback spreads the ball to the open man. A balanced passing attack also creates efficient opportunities for each player and as the No.1 option in this passing offense, Jones will thrive.
Déjà Vu Special: Stafford will be a top-5 fantasy quarterback and average close to 280 yards and 2 scores per game through September and most of October because of more offensive balance in the passing game and a defense that will struggle. Look for Jones to be among the leaders in receptions and reception yards. His TD total will be boom-bust (multiple scores in one week and nothing the next) but still a positive facet of his fantasy resume.
3. Week 7: "Why Did I drop Chris Hogan/Martellus Bennett Before Brady returned?"
Straight from the "decisions that bite you" file, Chris Hogan's rapport with Tom Brady looks night-and-day better than with Jimmy Garoppolo. We saw it during the preseason and it will become apparent again after the sack and interception-filled September.
It will forever become known as "Garoppolo-Fest" among the three fan bases in the states of New York and South Florida. They'll treasure that fleeting month when they toasted repeatedly to Jimmy G ("G" standing for "Gift Me") for keeping their teams in the hunt for the AFC East crown.
Hogan told the media this week that his role with the team is still evolving. That's code for Jimmy is still figuring out defenses this preseason and those were of the vanilla variety. I'm not sure if he'll recognize my number after Arizona, Miami, Houston, and Buffalo throw varieties of pistachio, blackberry truffle, and smores at him.
Scores of fortunate fantasy owners pluck Hogan off their waiver wires as their second or third pick during Week 3-Week 4 and watch him produce like a WR2 against Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh upon Brady's return. By no later than Week 5, Sigmund Bloom will be quoting Hogan's bidding price at 30 percent of free agent budgets.
If Garoppolo-Fest goes into overdrive, Bennett will be sending flowers to Jay Cutler and Sam Bradford. Bloom and I will be telling the September Tweakers to breathe, get a glass of water, and hold onto Bennett until Brady returns. Many of them won't listen. A few of them will respond in Week 7 that they will listen next year.
Déjà Vu Special: Hogan finishes at a mid-range fantasy WR3 by season's end with several games as the second-most productive option in New England's passing game. Bennett goes slap-off with Brady and has a stretch as a top-3 fantasy option at tight end, finishing in the top-7 at his position by year's end.
4. Week 4: "Why Did I ever listen to any of you about SEattle's ground game?"
Will Christine Michael stay awake? Will Thomas Rawls get healthy in time to be worth his draft status? By month's end, we'll look at the offensive line after stints against Miami, L.A., San Francisco, and the Jets and wonder if any of it ever mattered.
We'll tell those tweaking about their share of the Seattle running back depth chart to remain patient with Atlanta and New Orleans around the corner but it won't help. The occasional strong performances from Michael, Rawls, and the offensive line will be shuffled weekly with the impenetrable expertise of Lucifer himself hosting games of Three Card Monty on a street corner.
By the time we figure it out, most of you leaning on Michael or Rawls will be out of contention. The smart ones stopped picking cards and cut their losses in early October.
Déjà Vu Special: Michael earns the starter's workload and flashes what we saw during the preseason but the Seahawks' offensive struggles to the point that Michael's production is no better than a flex-play. When Rawls returns, Seattle plays the dreaded "hot hand" and fantasy owners will want to throw things at their TV whenever a Prilosec commercial airs between quarters and they just checked Seattle's boxscores. May I suggest a tablespoon of apple cider vinegar and shares of Doug Martin or Matt Forte?
5. Week 7: "If Steve Smith tells me He's flying to the Moon in a VW Bug, I'm calling Shotgun"
It's 100 percent wishful thinking. Smith's Achilles looked like raw chicken after an Abdullah the Butcher wrestling promo. Smith's rehab sessions were so intense that they induced vomiting from the pain.
Recovering from an Achilles tear and making an NFL team as a 37-year-old wide receiver is already badass. But I remember being here before with Adrian Peterson and his ACL. I said, "There's no such thing as Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny."
Peterson returned from his injury in record time and near record-breaking fashion. He might as well have been sliding down chimneys of fantasy owners' around the world and leaving gifts under their tree while eating the cookies set out for him.
Jene Bramel is the most level-headed guy I know. The fact that he drafted Steve Smith in a league with me and said, "I'll never count him out," leads me to think Smith might still have a chance to deliver some tasty eggs for those faithful (or fortunate on the waiver wire).
I haven't drafted Smith in a single re-draft league but he hasn't budged from a single dynasty roster of mine. If Smith delivers consistent WR3 production this year, I'll believe anything he tells me:
The sky is red...
The ocean is yellow...
I'm flying to the moon in a VW and I'm leaving tonight. We'll be back by tomorrow morning...
I'll call shotgun and bring my camera. I don't want to miss a shot of that red and yellow marble that's our planet while I'm walking on the moon with the fantasy Easter Bunny.