The hype train is buzzing for Minnesota Vikings' wide receiver, Cordarrelle Patterson. After a rookie season that included nine total touchdowns, scored in several different ways, expectations for the 2013 first round selection were bound to rise. Patterson's measureables from the NFL Combine (see the table below) may have been the spark, but the appointment of Norv Turner added gasoline to that fire.
PATTERSON'S NFL Combine Results
| Height | Weight | 40-YD | VERT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6' 3⁄4" | 216 | 4.42 | 37 |
Turner oversaw Vincent Jackson's rise to fantasy relevance and more recently, the breakthough of Josh Gordon, who was suspended for the first two games of 2013 and went on to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Turner's history, including his recent history with his top wide receivers, was delved into for our Coaching Carousel series.
Noted in that Turner article were the words of Vikings' GM, Rick Spielman, who exclaimed that the "first thing Norv Turner did was put in ten plays for Cordarelle Patterson." That qoute undoubtedly had an impact on Patterson's ADP, which the most recent data places at 47th overall and 20th among wide receivers in standard leagues.
Patterson's Rookie Season
| G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | rYD* | rTD** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 45 | 469 | 10.4 | 4 | 12 | 158 | 13.2 | 3 | 1393 | 2 |
Harvin's Rookie Season
| G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | rYD* | rTD** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 60 | 790 | 13.2 | 6 | 15 | 135 | 9.0 | 0 | 1156 | 2 |
*Kick Return Yards **KICK RETURN TOUCHDOWNS
"The most obvious thing, and you see it when he returns kicks, is he's a natural runner. He's got great instincts when he gets the ball in his hand and he makes great run decisions. He's got great vision. I think from Day 1 to now he's improved as a route runner. He's been very serious about working as a route runner."
POSITIVES
- Possesses natural instincts and ability that place him among the elite players with the ball in hand
- Turner, who oversaw the emergence of V. Jackson and J. Gordon, intends to manufacture touches for Patterson
- Minnesota's defense is not expected to control games, placing more responsibility on offense to score points
NEGATIVES
- Must display a marked improvement as a route runner
- Passing volume that helped elevate J. Gordon won't be present
- G. Jennings remains the top receiver until proven otherwise
FINAL THOUGHTS
2014 PROJECTIONS
MY PROJECTIONS
| G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | FumL | FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 62 | 827 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 12 | 108 | 9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 136 |
DAVID DODDS' PROJECTIONS
| G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | FumL | FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 68 | 843 | 12.4 | 6 | 12 | 132 | 11.0 | 1 | 1 | 138 |
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Alex Gelhar raves about Patterson's potential for NFL.com...
The darling of ATL's "Making the Leap" list is also the darling of many fantasy player's eyes. Patterson was a fantasy point machine down the stretch last season, and with Norv Turner now calling the shots (and admitting he's desinging plays specifically for Patterson) his draft stock is skyrocketing as we approach the kickoff of the season. Patterson's greatest assets are his ability with the ball in his hands, whether after the catch or as a running back. His route running is sure to improve, and if he can learn to better use his body and positioning to high-point and win contested catches, then the sky is the limit for the talented Tennessee product. You'll likely be hard pressed to find him available much later than rounds five or six come draft day.
Let’s clear one thing up very quickly – this has nothing to do with Patterson’s life off-the-field. The comparison is only from a football perspective. A first-round selection in last year’s draft, Patterson is a big play waiting to happen, contributing primarily as a wide receiver, but also as a rusher and returner. Despite playing a situational role as a rookie, Patterson scored nine touchdowns – four receiving, three rushing, and two on returns. He’s still considered to be a bit raw, but he’s now 23 and primed to play near-every-down in the Vikings improving offense. His upside is already showing up in his ADP, but Patterson is worth the investment. He’s one of only a handful of wideouts with Top 5 upside.
The incredibly athletic but very raw Minnesota receiver has leapt up draft boards, currently sitting as a top-50 player and a top-20 receiver. Our rankings say that's a very pie-in-the-sky outlook for the Tennessee product. The high-end of Patterson's Confidence Interval would leave him ranked only 24th among receivers, while the low end would see him plummet to 55th at his position... It's tough to predict long touchdown runs and catches as a reliable source of fantasy output for a player, and with multiple red zone targets in Minnesota (and a pretty good running back to boot) his chances to score aren't as reliable as many other receivers ahead of him in ADP... the overall production just isn't there according to our metrics.