Coaching Carousel: Chan Gailey

Photo: Imagn Images

Chan Gailey is a football lifer; he was an All-State high school quarterback in Florida before attending the University of Florida and becoming a three-year letterman, albeit with most of his time spent as a back-up. After receiving his graduate degree, he remained with the Gators' football program as a graduate assistant for two years. In 1976, he was granted his first coaching job with Troy State as a defensive back coach and then worked his way up to the NFL ranks in 1985 as a positions coach. Since then he has been either a head coach or offensive coordinator in the NFL for a total of 12 seasons with stints back in college and also the defunct World League of American Football peppered in.

Team Offense with Gailey as OC or HC

It has been a tale of two careers for Gailey. He experienced a high level of success during his early seasons as either a head coach or offensive coordinator before sputtering during his last few. In his first eight seasons, his offenses consistently ranked among the top-half of NFL teams in total points and total yards. During those years, his offenses also ran a higher number of plays, eclipsing 1,000 plays in five of his first six seasons.

In the past six seasons, not once have his offenses eclipsed 1,000 plays and perhaps not coicidentally, those same offenses have consistently ranked among the bottom-half of NFL teams in points and yards. It should be noted that Gailey's last two seasons in Buffalo were also his top-two offenses in terms of yardage. However, with offensive production rising around the NFL, his offenses in those improved years still ranked no better than in the middle of the pack.

Despite the Jets running at least 1,020 offensive plays in each of the past three seasons--a number that places them in the top-half of NFL teams--their offense has not ranked better than 28th among NFL teams in points scored or 22nd in offensive yards in any of those years. That level of inefficiency allows much room for improvement, setting the bar low. The additions of Brandon Marshall and James Carpenter should ease the difficulty of Gailey reaching that bar.

Team Passing with Gailey as HC or OC

Gailey's history with the passing game would never be mistaken for Marc Trestman's history. Gailey's teams have averaged just 494 passing attempts per season, ranking among the bottom-third NFL teams in eight of his 12 years. The passing yards fall right in line with the passing attempts, amounting to just 3,149 per season and regularly finishing among the NFL's bottom-third. His quarterbacks have not been all that bad either with John Elway and Troy Aikman sprinkled in a group along with the likes of Jay Fiedler and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Over the past three seasons, the Jets have averaged an eerily similar 490 passing attempts and 3,218 passing yards. As that is the case, it is all but certain that the team will continue to minimize pass attempts in 2015 under Gailey, which allows for little upside in the fantasy value of the passing game components. Geno Smith does possess plus rushing ability though and that lends him well as a spot-starter in the right match-ups. Now through two seasons, Smith's per game rushing averages project to 322 yards and 3.7 touchdowns on 70 carries over a 16-game span.

PASSING DISTRIBUTION WITH GAILEY AS OC OR HC

As the low team passing totals would lead you to expect, the passing distribution under Gailey displays rather pedestrian production all around. Gailey has overseen 10 different players reach 1,000 receiving yards in his 12 years though. The most recent of those players was Stevie Johnson, who managed three consecutive years with 75+ receptions and 1,000+ receiving yards in Buffalo--Johnson was the undisputed No. 1 receiver with the Bills during that time.

In New York, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker can be expected to form a 1A / 1B tandem, siphoning targets away from each other. Once in Gailey's career, two receivers did eclipse 1,000 yards in the same season: Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez in 2008. That Kansas City team attempted 541 passes. It is not only doubtful that the Jets will reach that volume of pass attempts, but the receiving corps is also much deeper than that Chiefs' roster.

We expect Marshall's production to more resemble his time in Miami--where he averaged just over 80 receptions--as opposed to the 100-reception seasons that we have grown accustomed to. He can be viewed as a low-end WR2. As for Decker, aside from notching 221 receiving yards and a touchdown on 10 receptions in Week 17 of last year, he produced merely as a low-end WR3. He should be able to offer production similar to that, but we would not anticipate an improvement.

Jeremy Kerley has been a steady presence over the years and rookie Devin Smith has received much praise from draftniks, including Footballguys' own Matt Harmon. But for as long as Marshall and Decker are healthy, both of them cn be safely disregarded in fantasy football. In fact, it is tough to see them even reaching 60 receptions combined.

Jace Amaro, selected in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft, will be given every opportunity to secure the starting tight end job. Not only must he overcome his alarming struggles as a rookie, which included a bevy dropped passes, history is not on his side. Gailey's starting tight ends have averaged only 31 receptions, 330 receiving yards, and 3.6 touchdowns per 16 games. And that includes Gonzalez' 2008 season when he rolled to a 96-1,058-10 line. Amaro will be nothing more than a low-end TE2.

TEAM RUSHING WITH GAILEY AS OC OR HC

The running game has been the backbone of Gailey's offenses. His teams have averaged 474 carries and 2,002 rushing yards per season. In 2014, both of those averages would have ranked 9th among NFL teams. The Jets averages over the past three seasons have been slightly higher at 498 carries and 2,111 rushing yards. Little should change for the team during the upcoming season as they continue to establish themselves on the ground.

RUSHING PRODUCTION WITH GAILEY AS OC OR HC

During Gailey's earlier years, he regularly rode workhorse running backs to the tune of 300+ carries--those players included Jerome Bettis, Emmitt Smith, and Lamar Smith--and that has attributed to the 16-game average of 300 carries for his No. 1 running backs. More recently, Gailey has employed a two-back system, although injuries and personnel may be equally responsible as changing times. The Jets stable of running backs includes Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, Stevan Ridley, and Zac Stacy.

Overall, the group is unassuming, but Ivory has proven to be effective when healthy and will have first crack at the lead role. Powell is the only one of the three suitable for third-down work, which ensures a role for him. Ridley was productive as an early down workhorse in New England, but will no longer benefit from Tom Brady's presence and must recover from a torn ACL. Stacy is only a replacement-level talent, whose ceiling may equal Shonn Greene.

We are betting on talent and that Ivory will become the clear No. 1 for early down work, but often spelled by the one of the other plodding backs. His role should lead to similar usage as the previous two seasons at the very least, which equated to roughly 13 touches per game--enough for him to be started as an RB3/Flex play. There is the potential for him to separate himself further from the group and become a low-end RB2, but limited use in the receiving game caps his value.

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