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So, hopefully I've convinced you that wide receiver (WR) evaluations are more reliable if they're based on per-route stats than per-target stats. This begs the question, "Is that also true of tight ends?" They're people who catch footballs relatively frequently too, right? Today, I'm going to give you the Cliffsnotes (TM) version of the tight ends (TEs) answer, calculate True Fantasy Points (TFP) based on that answer, and then identify a handful of TEs that you should seriously consider buying low or selling high right now.

Based on my research, TEs have exhibited the following regression-to-the-mean (RTM) characteristics since 2007:*

1. Their Receptions per Route Run (RPRR) takes 262 routes run before it stabilizes at 50% "true" ability and 50% randomness.
2. Their Yards per Route Run (YPRR) takes 318 routes run to stabilize.
3. Their Touchdowns per Route Run (TDPRR) takes 740 routes run to stabilize.

As an example of how to read the table, take a look at the row associated with Greg Olsen. Applying RTM only to Olsen's performance vis-a-vis the league average in 2014, he's scored 49.2 standard TFP so far (i.e., the "TFP14" column); applying his performance to offense-specific league averages since 2007, he's scored 47.3 TFP (i.e., the "TFP" column). Subtracting each of these from his observed 68.8 standard fantasy points (not shown), we find that he's overperforming by anywhere from 19.6 points (i.e., the "+/- 14" column) to 21.5 points (i.e., the "+/-" column). In PPR leagues, Olsen's 101.8 actual points (not shown) are somewhere between 24.4 points (i.e., the "+/- 14" column) and 27.3 points (i.e., the "+/-" column) above what you would expect, depending on whether you apply RTM to the average TE in 2014 or the average TE that's still playing for his current team.

With table comprehension out of the way, let's turn towards identifying a couple of buy-low/sell-high candidates.

standard buy-low candidate: heath miller

The primary source -- in fact, the only source -- of Miller's underachievement in standard leagues is his 0.50% TDPRR. If you apply RTM only to his routes run in 2014, his "true" touchdown-scoring ability is 1.03%, which is almost identical to his 1.01% value when applying RTM based on all of his routes with the Steelers. In other words, the next 10 games are more likely than not to see Miller double the TD rate he's produced in Pittsburgh's first six games. Miller has 1 TD in just about 200 routes run this season; something's gotta give.

STANDARD SELL-HIGH CANDIDATE: JULIUS THOMAS

Calm down and hear me out on this one. Thomas has been the quintessential example of a player whose fantasy scoring has been over-reliant on TDs: His TDPRR is a stratospheric 5.96%, which is nearly twice as high as the next-highest TE in the Top 36 Forward (Gates at 3.33%) and over five times as high as the average TE. To boot, given that TDPRR stabilizes at 740 routes run, the number of routes Thomas has run in Denver -- coupled with his TD total -- translates to a "true" touchdown ability of 2.21%. In short, Thomas's TDPRR isn't sustainable going forward. As counterintuitive -- and painful -- as it might seem, this fact is enough to suggest trading him sooner rather than later.

ppr buy-low candidate: jason witten

In his Cowboys career, Witten has had a RPRR of 16.4%. Through six games this season, it's an underachieving 11.8%. To further put that in context, only five other TEs have run more routes than Witten in 2014, and here are their RPRRs:

1. Martellus Bennett -- 17.2%
2. Greg Olsen -- 16.5%
3. Delanie Walker -- 15.6%
4. Antonio Gates -- 13.3%
5. Heath Miller -- 12.9%

ppr sell-high candidate: jimmy graham

Graham's YPRR and TDPRR in 2014 -- 2.47 and 1.97%, respectively -- aren't too far off from his "true" ability in the Saints offense (2.11 and 2.00%). That's why +/- says he ranks in the middle of the pack in standard scoring leagues (i.e., 14th among 37 TEs). His 22.4% RPRR at the moment, however, is well above his own "true" ability (17.0%), and also well above TEs of his own ilk:

• Rob Gronkowski -- 18.7%
• Martellus Bennett -- 17.2%
• Greg Olsen -- 16.5%
• Julius Thomas -- 15.9%

*Routes run statistics provided by Pro Football Focus.

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