Photo: Imagn Images

With all of the legwork out of the way, it's time for me to give you, the loyal Footballguys subscriber, True Fantasy Points (TFP) for all four of the offensive skill positions. Between the sheer volume of statistical information contained herein and my desire to not duplicate buy-low or sell-high candidates I've already highlighted in this space, forgive me in advance for the limited commentary. That said, in sacrficing written quantity, I've maximized quality: The players I have identified are ones I'm highly confident about in terms of their likelihood for regression to the mean (RTM).

Once again, here's a how TFP works:

1. Use reliability analysis to derive RTM factors for all fantasy-relevant rate stats (e.g., yards per attempt for QBs).
2. Calculate each players "true" rate stats applying RTM factors to his current stats.
3. Calculate each player's "true" total stats by multiplying his "true" rate stats to his current number of opportunities (e.g., routes run for WRs).
4. Calculate each player's TFP by applying the standard FBG and PPR scoring systems to his "true" total stats.
5. Calculate a +/- stat for each player by subtracting his TFP from his actual fantasy points.
6. Identify buy-low/sell-high candidates by combining +/- stats with more subjective factors (e.g., schedule strength, injuries, offensive schemes, etc.). 

Two more quick things so I don't have to keep repeating myself in each position section. First, as we're only concerned with trades here, I limit the tables to the top 36 QBs, 72 RBs, 72 WRs, and 36 TEs according to Footballguys' Top 200 Forward. Second, reading the tables is pretty straightforward, but just in case, here's an example. In the QB table, Andrew Luck's 224.8 TFP14 means that, if we only use the 2014 season to determine his "true" rate stats (i.e., True Yards per Attempt [YPA], True Touchdown Rate [TD%], and True Interception Rate [INT%]), then his 393 pass attempts should have scored 224.8 fantasy points. Alternatively, if we instead use Luck's entire Colts career to gauge his "true" fantasy-scoring ability, then his TFP equals 205.8.¹  The remaining columns, "+/- 14" and "+/-", are the result of simply subtracting Luck's TFP14 and TFP from the 249.3 points his pass attempts have actually produced so far this season.

QUARTERBACK

So let's get this show on the road. Below is the TFP table for QBs: 

BUY-LOW CANDIDATE: MATTHEW STAFFORD

With a new coaching staff in place this season, I'm inclined to rely more on Stafford's TFP14 than his TFP. And coupled with the imminent return of a certain human Deceptacon, Stafford's TFP14 suggests an upward trajectory in his scoring average going forward. Obviously, Calvin Johnson will help Detroit's pass offense in myriad ways, but one of his biggest assets -- a large-bodied target in the red zone -- is compatible with the main area in which Stafford's been underperforming his "true" ability in 2014. Namely, while his 7.38 YPA and 2.34 INT% are in line with his "true" rates (7.34 and 2.33%, respectively), Stafford's 3.68 TD% is well below his True TD% of 4.67%. That difference translates to an expectation of three more TDs than he's actually thrown in his 299 attempts. 

running back

Here's the table for RBs:

PPR SELL-HIGH CANDIDATE: MATT FORTE

There are a variety of valid reasons for it having nothing to do with TFP (e.g., injuries to Bears WRs, decreasing confidence in the deep-passing game, etc.), but Forte's receiving stats are off the charts in comparison to what you would expect from his "true" route-by-route ability in Chicago's offense. In 249 routes run, he should have 45 receptions; he actually has 58.² Furthermore, his 378.5 True Receiving Yards and 1.59 True TDs equate to 19.6 fewer fantasy points than his actual statline of 490-3. 

wide receiver

Here's the table for WRs:

STANDARD SELL-HIGH CANDIDATE: JEREMY MACLIN

Strike one: Mark Sanchez. Strike two: The remaining fantasy strength of schedule for Eagles WRs is awful. Strike three: Depending on whether or not you think his pre-2014 performance matters, Maclin's True Yards per Route Run (YPRR) is anywhere from 0.36 to 0.78 lower than his actual YPRR this season (2.50), and his True TDs per Route Run (TDPRR) is anywhere from 0.96% to 1.18% lower than his actual TDPRR (2.50%).

TIGHT END

Here's the table for TEs: