True Fantasy Points: 2015 Wide Receiver Projections

Photo: Imagn Images

So far in this series, I’ve used True Fantasy Points (TFP) to identify a handful of quarterbacks and running backs with projections for 2015 that far exceed or fall short of their “true” fantasy scoring ability. Today, I’ll do the same for wide receivers. The methods I’ll be using remain almost entirely the same, so feel free to click on either of the above links if you’re unfamiliar with how the system works.

There is one major difference, though. Fantasy-relevant receiving stats for wide receivers “stabilize” (i.e., become reliable indicators of “true” skill) at different points than they do for running backs:

• Receptions per route run (RPRR) stabilizes after 188 routes (vs. 169 for running backs)
• Yards per route run (YPRR) stabilizes after 351 routes (vs. 308)
• Touchdowns per route run (TDPRR) stabilizes after 882 routes (vs. 1,063)

The take-home message from these differences is that touchdown rate is the main thing that separates wide receivers from running backs in terms of our ability to trust the past when trying to predict the future. In fact, whereas only six fantasy-relevant running backs have run 1,063 routes or more with their current team, 29 wide receivers have run 882 routes or more. The end result is that, say, Lamar Miller’s actual 0.16% TDPRR in Miami (i.e., 1 touchdown in 620 routes) is father away from his “true” 0.39% TDPRR than Cole Beasley’s actual 0.97% TDPRR in Dallas (i.e., 6 touchdowns in 620 routes) is from his “true” 1.11% TDPRR.

true rprr, yprr, & tdprr for 2015

So where do all 73 fantasy-relevant wide receivers stand according to True RPRR, True YPRR, and True TDPRR? That information is in the table below (sorted from highest to lowest True YPRR):

That was quite a rookie season by Odell Beckham, Jr., eh? Even after adjusting for only having run 476 routes with the Giants (which, remember, is what the “true” stat calculation does), he’s still the only wide receiver to rank among the Top 5 in all three categories.

A few others stand out for ranking highly in one category but poorly in the other two, and vice versa. For instance, it’s clear that Antonio Brown is “truly” elite when it comes to receptions and yardage, whereas his “true” touchdown-receiving skill leans more towards mediocre. The good news is that TDPRR is less stable over time than RPRR and YPRR. The bad news is that Brown’s 2,167 routes run in Pittsburgh means we’ve seen more than enough of him to trust his lack of touchdown-scoring prowess in the past.

Mike Evans, on the other hand, shows the opposite “true” receiving profile: 5th in TDPRR, but 34th in RPRR and 20th in YPRR. Not surprisingly, then, Evans’ problem is the opposite of what I just detailed for Brown. Even though he’s only run 513 routes with the Buccaneers, that’s still more than enough to trust his non-elite actual RPRR (13.26%) and YPRR (2.05), but not enough to trust his elite actual TDPRR (2.34%).

true fantasy projections for 2015

Same as in previous posts, the point of all this is to apply the “true” stats from above to David Dodds’ receptions projection for each wide receiver, tally up the resulting TFP, and then compare TFP to Dodds' projection for fantasy points. The only change this time is that I'm limiting projections to standard receiving points only.

Last time, it made sense to include receiving TFP for running backs because receiving stats are a meaningful contributor to running back fantasy points, be they projections or end-of-year totals. In the context of wide receivers, however, rushing stats are practically meaningless for fantasy purposes. To wit, here's the table comparing TFP's receiving projections to Dodds' receiving projections (sorted by the "DIFF" column):

Yes, Beckham, Jr., is the biggest outlier in this table (as he was in the last table), but, given how much of an outlier he is both talent-wise and fantasy-wise, I'm inclined to accept that TFP might be wrong here. Therefore, let's focus on a handful of other wide receivers that reside on the extremes of the table.

antonio brown

As I mentioned earlier, Brown is a wide receiver that you draft for his "true" receptions and yardage ability; not his touchdown-scoring ability. What's particularly astonishing about Brown's TFP is that his "true" receiving yards projection is exactly the same as Dodds'; and so the entire difference between the two projections is totally comprised of Brown's projected touchdowns. Given Dodds' projection of 108 receptions, Brown's True RPRR of 17.64% implies that Brown will run a route on 612 plays this season. But if that's the case, then Dodds' projection of 11 touchdowns would mean a TDPRR of 1.80%, which would obliterate Brown's True TDPRR of 1.27% TDPRR.

julio jones

Jones has run 1,832 routes with the Falcons, so we've seen more than enough of his past performance to trust it as a reliable indicator of his future performance. Once again, however, Dodds projects an Antonio-Brown-esque 1.80% TDPRR, while Jones' True TDPRR given 1,832 routes run with the Falcons is far lower (1.35%).

golden tate

I hate to sound like a broken record, but Tate suffers from the same "overrated touchdown scoring ability" problem as Brown and Jones: His 2014 history with the Lions suggests a 0.97% True TDPRR, whereas Dodds projects a TDPRR of 1.41% in 2015.

That said, the weirdest part of Tate's projection differential relates to his RPRR, which isn't in the above table (because I'm forced mathematically to assume that Dodds' reception projection is "true"). In 2014, Tate caught 99 passes in 626 routes run, which translates to an actual RPRR of 15.8% and a True RPRR of 15.3%. But, for whatever reason, Dodds projects only 76 projections for Tate this season, which translates to only 497 routes run (i.e., 76/.153), or 129 fewer than last season.

martavis bryant

On the opposite end of the spectrum from the previous three wide receivers, there's Bryant, whose major "DIFF" column contribution comes from yardage, rather than touchdowns. Granted, Bryant only ran 200 routes with the Steelers in his rookie season, but his actual YPRR in those 200 routes was an absurd 2.75. Now, 200 routes run is far below the 351-route stabilization point for YPRR, but Bryant's True YPRR is still 2.20 even after adjusting for this fact. As you might recall from the first table, that ranks 10th among all wide receivers playing for the same team this season as they did last season.

The prevailing issue is this. If we extrapolate Dodds' projection of 52 receptions for Bryant from his 13.3% True RPRR, then that means he's going to run 392 routes in 2015. But if he runs 392 routes, then Bryant's True YPRR means he'll gain 861 yards (as shown in the table above). Taking all of the above together, for Dodds' projection to be correct, Bryant has to either severely underperform his True RPRR or severely underperform his True YPRR.