Ladd McConkey: All-In? The Gut Check No. 618

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Ladd McConkey A Top-10 Fantasy WR? Bold or Foolish?

Bold. Foolish. Crazy. Genius. There's a fine line between all four characterizations depending on the process behind the analysis, the perspective of the audience, and, (fair or not) the outcome. My thoughts on Ladd McConkey may lead some to use all four. 

The most fitting labels for my unconventional fantasy calls over the years probably range somewhere between bold and foolish. That's not going to change, either.

Boldness and Foolishness have the same ingredients. Foolishness is the unrefined material of the bold. If you're not willing to risk being a fool, you'll never gain the lessons to refine your approach and create something bold.  

The line between Bold and Foolish is where Ladd McConkey appears in my rankings as of mid-June. While his specific spot on my board will likely change throughout the summer, only a significant injury to McConkey and/or Justin Herbert will drop McConkey's value below starter value in a two-receiver lineup on my board. 

I may be foolish, but I'm no fool. I'm not telling you to draft Ladd McConkey as a top-10 receiver. I've ranked him inside my top 10 at the position because it's where I believe he'll finish, and I'm confident enough in that likelihood to use this placement to emphasize the value you'll mine from him later in re-drafts this summer. 

If I rank Ladd McConkey commensurate to his ADP and then give him a high upside label, that's a safe assessment but it fails to adequately emphasize my confidence level in his prospects. While the upside and downside scale adds a layer of value to similarly ranked players, I want you to see who McConkey's specific peers will be based on my projected production of his work.

There's no better way than to rank him where you believe he'll finish, especially if you're confident in the player approaching his ceiling. Bold? Yes. Foolish. Possibly. 

Ladd McConkey Matches Past Rookie Success Stories 

I've been bullish on rookie wide receivers delivering as starters before. A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave, were all players I was higher than the consensus as rookie starters. I specifically labeled Brown, Jefferson, Chase, and Olave as players with the best team fit among their peers. 

I remember seeing Brown and Jefferson labeled bad fits because of other receivers or a misunderstanding of their versatility. I also didn't overreact to Chase's drops during training camp. Even Jayden Reed and Jordan Addison were higher on my board than most. 

I share this recent history because I've gained confidence in my process of assessing talent and fit at wide receiver. If I see a strong talent and a great initial fit, I'm going bold to the hole. 

Ladd McConkey is an excellent talent with an ideal fit in an offense with a history of leveraging receivers with his skills. He's paired with a good quarterback who is accustomed to working with a similar style of receiver. 

The early feedback on McConkey's work this spring is also compelling. When considering the question marks in the Chargers' wide receiver room and all of the things going for McConkey, he's the most logical candidate to lead his team in meaningful passing game categories. This also makes Ladd McConkey a likely candidate for fantasy WR1 production in two-receiver lineups. 

Let's dig into the why. 

Ladd McConkey Fits Roman's Lead WR Archetype

On the surface, Roman's offensive schemes don't inspire confidence among fantasy GMs for receivers, especially a second-round rookie like Ladd McConkey. As the offensive coordinator for the 49ers from 2011-2014, his schemes ranked in the bottom third every year in attempts, yards, and touchdowns.

Roman's schemes were also bottom dwellers in these passing metrics when he was in Buffalo in 2015-16 and for three of his four seasons with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. Fortunately, we're not drafting offensive coordinators. 

What's hidden deeper in the mix with Roman's offenses are the receivers who delivered fantasy production while featured in them have a lot in common with Ladd McConkey. Let's look at these receivers, discuss their role in the scheme, and examine their commonalities as players as well as their differences.

We'll also consider their differences with their surrounding talent.  What we'll find is that Ladd McConkey fits the Roman archetype and may be in the best situation to date for starter fantasy production. 

Greg Roman's Leading Receivers By Year in the NFL

The players in bold managed at least WR2 value in most PPR fantasy formats. This is Ladd McConkey's fantasy floor if he earns this role, which is more likely than it appears.

• 2011: Michael Crabtree: WR28 (185 points). 3rd year in the league. 
• 2012: Crabtree: WR15 (250.3 points). 4th year. 
• 2013: Anquan Boldin: WR15 (246 points). 11th year.
• 2014: Boldin: WR18 (219.6 points). 12th year.
• 2015: Sammy Watkins: WR18 (218.8 points). 2nd year.
• 2016: Robert Woods: WR65 (118.9 points). 4th year.
• 2019: Marquise Brown: WR46 (146.4 points). 1st year.
• 2020: Marquise Brown: WR36 (183 points). 2nd year. 
• 2021: Marquise Brown: WR21 (228.3 points) 3rd year.
• 2022: Devin Duvernay: WR65 (110.1 points). 3rd year.

What does this tell us about what to expect with Ladd McConkey?

Roman has been an offensive coordinator for 10 years in the NFL, and there have been 5 years where the team's leading receiver has been fantasy-relevant as at least a WR2. This doesn't sound like a high success rate, but Roman has produced a lead receiver with fantasy starter production in five of six seasons where there wasn't a major factor undermining the personnel or direction of the offense. 

All of these players -- Crabtree, Boldin, Watkins, Woods, Brown, and Duvernay had several things in common with each other and Ladd McConkey: 

• They earned significant time in the slot and were known for playing there. 
• They were known for skill after the catch. 
• They could win versus man-to-man and zone coverage. 

Crabtree, Watkins, Woods, Brown, and Duvernay, also had the speed to get deep against man coverage. So does Ladd McConkey.

Roman's scheme leans on a strong ground game and tight ends are a significant factor in the passing game. In six of those seasons above, Greg Roman's leading tight end was a top-10 fantasy producer and a primary component of the passing game. 

This scheme wants to throw the ball over the middle. It demands a receiver who can read the complexities of zone coverage and man-to-man coverage from the slot and make quick adjustments with the quarterback. It also prizes receivers who can create yardage in space -- screens, RPOs, and crossing routes. 

Ladd McConkey has the speed to win outside, but he functions best from the slot. He's a quick-footed receiver who excels in the screen and RPO game because he's patient and comfortable working tight to his blockers in heavy traffic. He wins with double moves against off-man coverage and has the expertise of footwork to eventually develop into a strong press-man receiver if he can demonstrate the counters with his hands that are necessary to defeat top NFL corners. 

Ladd McConkey fits the physical, technical, and stylistic archetype of Greg Roman's lead receiver. If I were to compare him to previous players in that scheme, he's closer to Watkins, Woods, and Crabtree in that order than Brown or Boldin. 

There's No Competition for Ladd McConkey's Role in L.A.

There isn't another player on the depth chart who fits this role as well as Ladd McConkey. Quentin Johnston comes the closest because of his speed, skill after the catch, and skill with quick-hitting routes that would make him suitable for development as an inside option.

However, Johnston's reliability as a pass catcher is a work in progress. The also Chargers bought into Johnston's highlight tape of contested catches and didn't accurately project the technical flaws in these plays that would restrict his value in that capacity against a higher level of competition. 

Ladd McConkey's competition on the Chargers' depth chart isn't suitable for McConkey's projected role.

Joshua Palmer lacks great quickness. Cornelious Johnson's hands and routes need work. D.J. Chark is an outside receiver. Derius Davis is a gadget player with Pro-Bowl potential in the return game. Brenden Rice might offer some Crabtree or JuJu Smith-Schuster value at some point, but he's more of a flanker and his hands need a little attention.

Ladd McConkey may be the most refined receiver the Chargers have. Chark is a suitable vertical threat. Palmer is a competent flanker. Johnston will try to hold off Chark. None of them can play multiple spots effectively. 

Although Ladd McConkey looks like the team's WR3 when you read the depth chart without the context of the scheme, that's misleading When examining the scheme, the WR3 is typically the slot, which is typically Greg Roman's production leader at the position. 

Justin Herbert Is the Best QB Greg Roman Has Had

I'm not fully counting Lamar Jackson in this mix because the Ravens underestimated Jackson's capabilities as a field general. They employed Roman to "tailor the offense around Jackson's strengths." At least that was the intent.

The reality: The Ravens didn't believe Jackson was as skilled as he was from the pocket and had a savior mentality with him. Until it became clear that Jackson and the Ravens were bumping their collective heads against the boundaries of Roman's scheme, the league incorrectly saw Jackson as a quarterback who couldn't play in a conventional offense. 

Ladd McConkey won't be in a system where the coaching staff is limiting the quarterback by design. There will be no damaging biases against Herbert that unintentionally limit his potential. L.A. will build the ground game, but it will put everything on Herbert that they should have with Jackson.  

Roman's past quarterbacks included Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Taylor, and E.J. Manuel. None of them were as complete a player as Herbert.

Although Jackson's overall quarterbacking is on par with Herbert they have different strengths and weaknesses. Herbert is a superior boundary thrower to Jackson and that expands Ladd McConkey's potential usage. Herbert has the velocity Jackson lacks with sideline timing routes. 

Roman compensated for Jackson's arm with the ground game, creating QB runs to the perimeter where Jackson earned chunks of yardage untouched. This stretched the field horizontally. Herbert can run, but no one in the league is on par with Jackson as a ball carrier. Ladd McConkey won't lose significant targets at the expense of Herbert's legs.

Herbert is more capable of stretching the field this way as a passer. Even so, Herbert's leading producer during his career has been Keenan Allen who has functioned mostly in the slot. Ladd McConkey is Allen's replacement. 

One adjustment Herbert won't need to make with Roman's offense is maximizing the potential of his slot receiver. Herbert is accustomed to having a smart receiver in that role who can play inside and outside, read coverage pre-snap, and post-snap accurately, and earn yards after the catch. 

Ladd McConkey's Camp Reviews Are Legit

Media outlets, including the Athletic and the L.A. Times, reported that "McConkey displayed the most potential [among the rookies] throughout the offseason program, his precise route running and quickness in tight spaces are the sort of qualities that would appeal to any quarterback." 

"It's like he's been a four- or five-year vet," Herbert said. "He understands the game. He understands leverage. He's a smart player, and he's very athletic. I'm really looking forward to getting him the ball." 

"The progress of Johnston, a 2023 first-round pick, will be another focal point. He had an underwhelming rookie season and still hasn't answered the questions about his hands." 

For most, the characterization of Ladd McConkey playing with the savvy of a veteran is the most notable part of the assessment. For me, it's that McConkey understands leverage. 

The best quarterbacks and receivers in football are quick processors of information that unfolds on the field. They can initially impress on the whiteboard with their knowledge, but they must execute on the field with speed, clarity, confidence, and accuracy. 

This is the part where many fail in the NFL. If Ladd McConkey is already impressing Herbert with his ability to see the position of the 2-3 defenders playing around him and know how to manipulate or cut off the route, that's a great sign. This is what Keenan Allen does well and why the Chargers made McConkey Allen's replacement. 

Herbert didn't say, "I'm looking forward to watching McConkey grow, develop, or master the offense." Herbert said, "I'm looking forward to getting him in the ball." 

Present tense. The future is now with Ladd McConkey. 

Projecting Ladd McConkey's Rookie Year

Although the offenses are different, Puka Nacua had a record year where he spent 47 percent of his time aligned tight to the line or in the slot. Nacua was in a "Swiss Army Knife" role that the Chargers have projected for McConkey. 

Nacua earned 169 targets for the Rams. Don't expect that total for Ladd McConkey, but Allen routinely earned between 150 targets when he played at least 16 games during a season, hitting that mark four out of five times since 2017. 

Roman's past receivers never reached that 150-target mark. Crabtree's best mark under Roman was 127. Boldin's was 130. Watkins' was 128. Brown's was 146. 

Considering that I have Jackson on par with Herbert as a passer, Brown's 146-target mark in this recent era of offensive football and an added game to the schedule makes 150 a legit number for Ladd McConkey's role. If McConkey averages Brown's rate of 11.4 yards per catch but has a higher catch percentage in the realm of  70-73 percent, McConkey be in the realm of 1,200 yards receiving and nearly 110 grabs. 

If the yards per catch average is closer to 12-13, on par with Crabtree, he could reach that 1,200-yard mark with a lower volume and/or catch rate.  Watkins averaged 17.5 yards per catch as Roman's lead receiver in 2015, I'm not banking on that outcome for McConkey. 

The idea of Ladd McConkey earning 130-150 targets, 90-110 catches, 1,000-1,200 yards, and 3-5 scores isn't as nutty as it looks for a second-round rookie in his first season when considering that his role is likely the lead option in Roman's scheme. 

You won't have to take Ladd McConkey as a top-10 fantasy receiver, but he presents a bargain--even as a heralded player in one of the most celebrated rookie receiver classes in recent memory.