Running Back Production by Quarter (2014)

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Every year, I calculate which running backs were most productive on a per quarter basis. Looking at fantasy points per quarter allows us to gauge a player's fantasy potential before worrying about injuries or when he had a reduced role.

To do this, I looked at the top 60 running backs in 2013 in a 0.5 PPR scoring format. Then, I noted in how many quarters each of those running backs "played" in 2013. I included overtime quarters, so it's possible for a running back to "play" in more than 64 quarters; in fact Matt Forte saw action in 66 quarters last season. If a running back had at least one rush attempt or one target in a quarter, he gets credit for "playing" in that quarter. But if a player was injured early in the first quarter, his production in that game will in essence be divided by just one-fourth of a game instead of a full game. By using a more granular approach to per-game numbers, we can really see which running backs played well in 2013 -- at least, whenever they were on the field. The table below shows each running back's fantasy points in 2013, number of games played, number of quarters involved, fantasy points per game, fantasy points per four quarters, and the running backs' ranks among these 60 RBs in FP, FP/G and Fantasy Points per Four Quarters (FP/4Q).

• Shane Vereen stands out as a player who might be undervalued.  He has an ADP of RB18 in PPR leauges and RB21 in non-PPR, despite finishing as RB12 in FP/G and RB10 in fantasy points per quarter in a 0.5 PPR format. New England still has question marks at wide receiver and tight end, which could help Vereen's value.  He saw double-digit targets in half of his eight games last season, which makes him extremely valuable in PPR leagues.

• Arian Foster scored just two touchdowns last year, but that didn't stop him from ranking 14th in fantasy points per quarter. In fact, Foster ranked 2nd in rushing yards through six weeks and third in yards from scrimmage through six weeks in 2013. In week 7, he left the game in the first quarter, and his season was essentially over. While Foster's 2013 season was ugly, he was a bit more productive than most remember.

• James Starks isn't a name on many fantasy radars, but he was very productive when he saw action last year. Starks averaged 5.5 yards per carry and made the most of his limited targets in the passing game. That won't mean much for his fantasy value in 2014, but it may be a good sign for Eddie Lacy.  Since the Packers starting running back has an ADP of RB5 in both PPR and non-PPR leagues, there's not much room to argue that he's undervalued.  But the success of Starks in limited action is a good sign of how running back-friendly the Packers offense can be (on the other hand, it's worth acknowledging that his best two games came against the Washington and Chicago defenses).

• Rashad Jennings ranked just 27th in fantasy points per game last year, but 15th in fantasy points per quarter. Jennings played in 15 games last year, but in six of them, he saw fewer than five carries.  In the other nine games, he averaged 16.4 carries per game, 74.4 rushing yards (4.5 YPC), and 28.7 receiving yards per game, while scoring six times. It's fair to wonder how much a 29-year-old Jennings has left in the tank, and the odds of him averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage again are unlikely. Now with the Giants, he'll face competition for touches from both David Wilson and rookie Andre Williams, but Jennings was a much more productive player last year than as indicated by his raw metrics.

• DeMarco Murray has an ADP of RB7 in both PPR and non-PPR leagues, despite finishing 4th in both FP/G and FP/Q in 2013.  Murray carries with him the injury tag, but the Cowboys have quietly turned their offensive line into one of the league's best. Murray is an excellent running back and has a track record of production; the only thing preventing him from a top-four finish is health.

• Reggie Bush ranked 8th in both FP/G and FP/Q last season, yet he's being drafted as just the 16th RB in both PPR and non-PPR leagues right now.  Why? Presumably this is because of Joique Bell, but the Lions backup running back has a ADP of just RB25 in PPR leagues.  As a unit, all Lions running backs ranked 4th in fantasy points in both PPR and non-PPR leagues last year.  Bush should see the vast majority of touches, and a top-ten finish is likely if he stays healthy.