Quarterback By Committee 2015

Photo: Imagn Images

This is the twelfth straight season that Footballguys.com has published its annual Quarterback By Commitee article.  For those fantasy players who like to wait on drafting their quarterback while stocking their team at the other positions, this is the article for you. 

Last year, the recommended approach was selecting Jay Cutler (ADP of QB11) and Eli Manning (ADP of QB22), and pairing them based on pre-season strength of schedule.  If you did just that -- and stuck to those preseason projections (other than the one week Cutler was benched and would have been the recommended play) -- your quarterback would have amassed 4,514 passing yards, 34 TDs, 13 INTs, and 103 rushing yards with one touchdown.  That comes out to 386.4 fantasy points (excluding week 17, and using a scoring system of 1 point per 20 yards passing, 5 points per passing TD, -2 points per INT, 1 point per 10 yards rushing, and 6 points per rushing TD), which would have ranked just outside of the top five (and behind Brees and Roethlisberger) among quarterback production.

The general rule for QBBC fans is that the first seven rounds of your draft should be used to assemble a wealth of talent at running back, wide receiver, and, if the draft unfolds in such a way, tight end. By going the QBBC route, you can save those high picks in your draft and still get solid fantasy production by grabbing two QBs who face bad defenses nearly every week of the year. That's what the QBBC system is all about.

Of course, in some leagues, great quarterbacks are available late into the middle rounds of the drafts, so it's important to know your league.  But in general, I like to promote the quarterback-by-committee approach, and wait even longer and implement this strategy.

The first key, of course, is to rank the defenses. I always start by adjusting last season's data on defenses for strength of schedule. I started with the adjusted FP rankings for each defense listed in the Rearview QB article. Then, I made some adjustments to the defenses based on their efficiency numbers from 2014 and what's happened since the end of last season. The table below lists my rating for defenses for fantasy quarterbacks, listed from the toughest (Seattle) to the easiest (Washington).  Quarterbacks facing a team from the state of Washington should expect to produce about four fantasy points fewer than against an average defense, while passers facing a team from the city of Washington will be projected to score about 3.5 more points than against an average defense.

The main key to the QBBC philosophy is to identify which defenses should rank in the bottom quarter of the league when it comes to stopping quarterbacks. Washington, Chicago, and New York were juicy matchups for fantasy quarterbacks last year, and project as similarly enticing in 2015. Meanwhile, teams like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis have questionable defenses and offenses that are likely to bring about shootouts -- which is great if you have the other team's quarterback.  The Cardinals are a sneaky good matchup: Arizona ranked 24th against QBs last year, and the defense seems likely to struggle again this year after turning over the front seven and losing Antonio Cromartie and Todd Bowles to the Jets.

Once we rank the defenses, it's easy to figure out which QB pairings work based on schedule. When the quarterback is home, his opponents gets a +0.3 adjustment, so a quarterback hosting the Eagles receives a score of +3.3.  When that quarterback is on the road, adjustment is 0.3 in the other direction, so playing in Philadelphia is worth +2.7. Below is a list of all 496 possible combinations. These are ranked from most favorable to least, with strength of schedule being the only determining factor.  The top combination here features Matt Ryan (Atlanta) and Robert Griffin III III (Washington), and together, they would be expected to score 26.8 points more than they would if they combined to have a perfectly average schedule.

A Ryan/Griffin combination doesn't work for a few reasons: one, Ryan has an ADP of QB8, and two, a combination of Ryan and RG3 means you are going to play Ryan almost every week.  Instead, there are two combinations I want to highlight, and both feature the number one pick in the 2015 Draft.

Jameis Winston/Sam Bradford is the ideal QBBC if you're a traditionalist who loves to wait on the quarterback position.  They offer fantastic upside and value, given that Winston has an ADP of QB19 and Bradford is just one spot ahead of him.  However, if you want a safer floor -- and I can understand that some of you would -- then I can recommend a Winston/Eli Manning pair.  Here's the thing: After the top 8 of Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Ryan, the next set of quarterbacks can go in pretty much any order.  In some leagues, Eli Manning will be the 9th guy off the board; in others, he might still be around after 12 quarterbacks have been taken.  So if you're in a league where Eli Manning falls out of the top 12, I'd be inclined to take him as the 13th quarterback off the board.

But if your draft doesn't unfold that way, then go with a Winston/Bradford pairing. You can wait a very long time to take these two, which means the rest of your roster should be excellent.  And here is the schedule you would be rewarded with:

• Week 1: Bradford @ Atlanta Falcons (Monday Night Football)
• Week 2: Winston @ New Orleans Saints
• Week 3: Winston @ Houston Texans
• Week 4: Bradford @ Washington Redskins
• Week 5: Winston vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 6: Bradford vs. New York Giants (Monday Night Football)
• Week 7: Winston @ Washington Redskins
• Week 8: Winston @ Atlanta Falcons
• Week 9: Winston vs. New York Giants
• Week 10: Winston vs. Dallas Cowboys
• Week 11: Winston @ Philadelphia Eagles (or Bradford vs. Tampa Bay)
• Week 12: Winston @ Indianapolis Colts
• Week 13: Winston vs. Atlanta Falcons
• Week 14: Winston vs. New Orleans Saints
• Week 15: Bradford vs. Arizona Cardinals
• Week 16: Bradford vs. Washington Redskins (Saturday Night)

This schedule features three games against a Washington defense that's projected to be the worst in the league, including the all-important week 16 game.  It also has three games against a porous Atlanta defense, any of which could turn into a shootout.  You get two games each against the Giants and Saints, teams that are much more titled towards offense than defense, along with games against the Colts, Eagles, Cowboys, Jaguars, Cardinals, and Texans. This is an incredibly enticing schedule, one that can make you feel confident to wait until 15 quarterbacks are off the board before you take your first.

With Bradford, the upside is obvious: over the last two years (i.e., during the Chip Kelly Era), the Eagles quarterbacks rank 4th in fantasy points scored.  And while we may not be able to count on Bradford to put up fantastic numbers every week, there's no reason he can't be successful against some of the worst defenses in the NFL.

For Winston, some of you may need more convincing, but I refer you again to that schedule. The Bucs are going to lean on Winston, as the team's running game is below-average. As a result, Winston should be forced to pass, and even if he struggles with interceptions as a rookie, he could wind up with a significant amount of garbage time points against teams like Indianapolis, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Dallas. With Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Winston has the weapons around him to succeed as a rookie against the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Of course, if you don't want Winston and Bradford (or Manning), you can scan the table above and find how any other pair of schedules interact.  That's why I present the full table.

Picking Just One Quarterback? 

Even if you don't believe in committees, or have no preset draft plan, it pays to know how tough of a schedule each team has. So let's close with a look at the quarterbacks with the easiest schedules. In leagues with small rosters, it's difficult to go QBBC, so it's helpful to know which quarterbacks have the easiest (Winston) and toughest (poor, poor Browns fans) schedules.

Winston's schedule is great, but as you can see, the top four schedules all come from the NFC South: that division gets to play each other, the NFC East, and the AFC South, which is quite the tasty lineup.  Meanwhile, all four AFC North teams are in the bottom eight, with the Steelers and Browns getting the toughest schedules for fantasy quarterbacks among the group.