Photo: Imagn Images

Seven years ago, Doug Drinen wrote an article about how the "optimal draft" would look from each draft slot. Does it make sense to start your draft RB-RB-RB?  What about WR-RB vs. RB-QB? My goal was to build a model to derive the optimal draft based on Footballguys' projections and the most current average draft position (ADP) data. There are some limitations to my computer processing power, however, so I need to include a bunch of restrictions. Let's get those out of the way:

• We will assume a 12-team league that has only an eight-round draft. Every team starts 1 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, and 1 TE in the first 8 rounds (I chose that system because it almost perfectly mirrors ADP through 96 picks).
• PPR scoring system
• At every pick, you take the player available (based on ADP) projected to score the most points (based on David Dodds' projections)

Like all models, this one is imperfect. You may think that this one is more imperfect than most. That's okay, because I still think there is a lot of value in this, and we'll see why in a bit. Finding out the best way to draft in this fictional world can provide useful philosophies that you can take over to your draft.

There are 1,120 different ways to draft one quarterback, three running backs, three wide receivers, and one tight end. I went through each of those 1120 draft options for each draft slot and noted which 8 players were projected to score the most points.  For space reasons, I won't list all 1,120, but I'll list the top 20 for each draft slot.

Pick #1

Here's how to read the table.  The top combination in terms of projected fantasy points says to go running back at 1.01, then grab a RB and a WR at both the 2/3 and the 4/5 turn.  At 6/7, you take your first quarterback and your final receiver, and you leave tight end for last. This is pretty intuitive, but nice to see.  The formula then takes the best available player at each position for each slot, which is Peterson, White/Murray, Vereen/Brown, Kaepernick/Jennings, and finally Finley.  That combo is projected to score 1,913 fantasy points. Footballguys is high on Vereen, Brown, Kaepernick, and Jennings, and Peterson/White are studs, so the next combo simply has you grabbing Gronkowski early and stealing DeAngelo Williams late (another player Footballguys thinks is undervalued.) Here are the top 20:

(Note that because the #1 and #12 teams pick at the turn, for each slot, there are 8 different identical ways of drafting. I have deleted all repeating options for all draft slots, which should make it more useful for you to view but might make some of the positional orderings misleading.)

A couple of interesting observations. Peterson doesn't dominate the #1 slot, in part because we're high on Vereen and Williams late. Of course, it's far from an optimal strategy, and not one we would recommend, but I would have expected things to look at lot worse if you took Calvin Johnson number one.

Something else that sticks out: we love Kaepernick at 72 (his ADP is 73). The top 13 combos have Kaepernick in the sixth, something to keep in mind (and perhaps cross your fingers about) if you have the #1 pick.

Pick #2

As you would expect, there isn't much of a difference in strategy between picks one and two.  The optimal strategy is again "Best Available Running Back" followed by White/Murray, Vereen/Brown, Kaepernick/Jennings, and Finley.  The next best combo simply swaps Murray and Finley for Gronkowski and Williams.

We see Romo get drafted in some of these combinations, as he shows up in our first draft that starts off with running backs and wide receivers in the first six rounds.  If you are high on Finley and hate taking a quarterback early, this is a viable strategy, but it's not optimal. The main reason? That combo is identical to the number one combo, except you draft Jennings in the fifth instead of the sixth, and take Romo in the sixth instead of Kaepernick in the fifth. Obviously the calculus changes if you prefer Romo to Kaepernick, but this again highlights how we view the 49ers quarterback as a great value at the end of the sixth.

Pick #3

We start seeing Larry Fitzgerald show up, as the latest you can get him according to our rules is #22. You've now noticed the trend at the top of the draft: top remaining RB, top remaining WR, then Murray, Vereen, Brown, Kaepernick, Jennings, and Finley.  If you are a bit riskier, take Gronkowski in the third and Williams in the eighth.

Cam Newton sneaks into some of the top picks, as he's not available at the end of round four to the top two picks (Newton has an ADP of QB46 in PPR leagues). We're pretty high on Vereen and Kaepernick, so there's no way to make up the value at running back if you draft Newton in the 4th, but the Carolina quarterback does appear in the fifth-best strategy.

Pick #4